Download or read book Enso Influence on Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Regional Landfall Counts written by Kyle Imhoff and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A climatological analysis investigates Atlantic basin tropical cyclone tracks and landfall patterns and their connections to synoptic patterns and the phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Thirty-three years (1979-2011) of tropical cyclone activity are examined using storm positions from the North Atlantic Hurricane Database. The ENSO phase is determined by the Oceanic Nino Index, and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns are analyzed using the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 dataset. A cluster analysis technique, called self-organizing maps, is performed on the MSLP patterns across the North Atlantic Basin at the time when tropical cyclones made landfall. From this technique, statistical comparisons are made between landfall patterns during each ENSO phase and a computed climatological average for each cluster. Results of this analysis indicate that two distinct high pressure centers are present during La Nina events -- one center over the subtropical Atlantic and one over the central United States (US). Only one large high pressure center is present over the Atlantic during El Nino events. Because of these pressure patterns, during La Nina events when more tropical cyclones are favored to form over the Atlantic Basin, greater increases in landfall probabilities exist for Canada and Central America than in the US. During El Nino events when tropical cyclones are less likely to form, smaller decreases in landfall probabilities exist for the US than for Canada and Central America. Thus, landfall activity in the US is less influenced by the ENSO phase than the remainder of the continent.
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Hurricanes and Typhoons written by Richard J. Murnane and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys the past, present, and potential future variability of hurricanes and typhoons on a variety of timescales using newly developed approaches based on geological and archival records, in addition to more traditional approaches based on the analysis of the historical record of tropical cyclone tracks. A unique aspect of the book is that it provides an overview of the developing field of paleotempestology, which uses geological, biological, and documentary evidence to reconstruct prehistoric changes in hurricane landfall. The book also presents a particularly wide sampling of ongoing efforts to extend the best track data sets using historical material from many sources, including Chinese archives, British naval logbooks, Spanish colonial records, and early diaries from South Carolina. The book will be of particular interest to tropical meteorologists, geologists, and climatologists as well as to the catastrophe reinsurance industry, graduate students in meteorology, and public employees active in planning and emergency management.
Download or read book El Ni o southern Oscillation ENSO and Its Potential Influence on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin written by Gordon Thomas Abbott and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Indian Ocean Dipole s Influence on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Alan Joseph Marinaro and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improving early tropical cyclone forecasts would assist reinsurance decision makers as they seek information that can minimize risks. Early lead forecasts are based on model variables before December 1 (Year 0) that predict Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Year +1). The autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has an 8 to 14 month antecedent correlation with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is traditionally the best non-lead and overall predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Analyses were performed over a 30-year period from 1984/85-2013/14, with some time variation depending on the test. Correlation, spatial, and wavelet analyses were utilized to find associations between the IOD, west and east components of the IOD, and four other variables related to the following season's ENSO state and tropical cyclone activity. The prior western pole of the October IOD (WIOD) was demonstrated to have statistically significant r-squared values (i.e. 99% confidence interval) to upcoming tropical storm activity (i.e. explained 25% of the variance), named storm counts (28%), and ENSO (21%). The WIOD has no connection with U.S. hurricane landfalls. Wavelet analysis between October IOD variables and following August-October ENSO data was observed to have the best time-frequency relationship. Dynamic reasoning for these relationships reside within the idealized biennial IOD-ENSO cycle, Walker circulation process, and the impact of ENSO on the state of the Atlantic Basin. The WIOD's integration into early-lead forecast models could be an advantage for those in the reinsurance industry and other decision makers impacted by Atlantic tropical cyclonesn.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Hurricanes of the North Atlantic written by James B. Elsner and published by New York : Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As people continue to develop coastal areas, society's liability to hurricanes will dramatically increase, regardless of changes in the environment. This book addresses these key issues, providing a detailed examination of
Download or read book Statistical Aspects of ENSO Events 1950 1997 and the El Nino Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones written by Jerry Yu Jien and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Damages inflicted by tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide have increased in recent decades with climate change and variability playing key roles in altering TC characteristics. In this thesis, the impact of natural variability is explored, using ENSO conditions, and climate change on the nature of eastern North Pacific (ENP) TCs. The first research objective of the thesis focused on a spatial-temporal separation of ENP storms based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (temporal variability, El Niño, La Niña, neutral) and regional storm stratification (spatial variability, east and west). The western development region (WDR) storms were found to be more sensitive to influences of ENSO. In particular, during El Niño years, there were more WDR storms. The second research objective explored the ENSO impact on the trajectory of ENP storm tracks by examining the locations for genesis and downgradation points and storm track movements. The storm tracks were strongly influenced by ENSO phases, with significant differences detected for many ENSO pairings. However, when storm data are regionally separated the latitudinal movement of WDR storms tend to be more extensive during El Niño conditions and as a result there are more landfalling TCs. The third research objective of the dissertation explored the importance of near-time sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on storm intensities. SST thresholds were found that were critical for the sustenance of stronger ENP storms that achieve hurricane and major hurricane status. Significantly, the minimum SST threshold varied between the MDR subdivisions. For major hurricanes, the SST requirements for EDR and WDR are substantially lower than that found in the North Atlantic basin at 28.25°C. Although SSTs appear to contribute little in determining the ultimate maximum storm intensity for ENP storms in general, when ENP storms are regionally divided, SSTs are found to be highly associated with the WDR major hurricanes. Evidently the recent warming shown in the distribution of storm-bounded SSTs has led to the rise of maximum potential intensity for ENP storms. Overall, the common theme that emerged from these three studies is that ENP storm characteristics associated with WDR are inherently more sensitive to climate variability and change.
Download or read book Atmospheric Rivers written by F. Martin Ralph and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-10 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean 1871 1992 written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Using Downscaled Global Climate Models to Perform a Long Term Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Their Impacts on Coastal Inundation to New York City written by Andra Reed and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will be affected by both how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (1851 CE present) to accurately assess long-term trends of low-frequency variability in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, I use synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models; driving climate conditions span 850 CE 2005 CE. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, I investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, I find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic basin. Consistent with previous studies, I find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends. Additionally, I investigate the changing risk of inundation to the United States Atlantic coast, dependent upon both storm surges during tropical cyclones, and the rising sea levels on which those surges occur. Focusing our study on New York City, I compare pre-anthropogenic era (850 CE 1800 CE) and anthropogenic era (1970 CE 2005 CE) storm-surge model results, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. I find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m at The Battery in New York City (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to less than 25 years in the anthropogenic era. Finally, as sea levels continue to rise over the next several centuries, we expect additional risk of coastal flooding for the United States Atlantic Coast in general, and for New York City in particular, associated with storm surge events. I thus turn to an analysis of future projections of storm surge heights in New York City through the year 2300 in the context of my long-term historical analysis. Using CMIP5 model projections that extend to 2300 CE, I generate large datasets of downscaled tropical cyclones. Combining storm surge model results with several potential sea level rise scenarios for the New York City region through the year 2300, I find greatly increased risk of flooding for the metropolitan area. I show that mean flood heights are projected to increase by ~0.24 to ~0.97 meters across three CMIP5 models through the year 2100. By 2300, mean flood heights could increase by as much as ~2.85- ~4.99 meters. These results are significant at the 99% confidence level. I show that, although it is possible that shifting storm tracks could spare NYC from increases in severe storm surge heights in coming centuries, rising relative sea levels are likely to greatly increase overall flood heights, regardless of changes in TCs and their resultant storm-surge heights. Results from this research indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies in our coastal communities, especially in the New York City region.
Download or read book Climate Impacts on Energy Systems written by Jane O. Ebinger and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2011 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."
Download or read book Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability written by Assefa M. Melesse and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extreme Hydrology and Climate Variability: Monitoring, Modelling, Adaptation and Mitigation is a compilation of contributions by experts from around the world who discuss extreme hydrology topics, from monitoring, to modeling and management. With extreme climatic and hydrologic events becoming so frequent, this book is a critical source, adding knowledge to the science of extreme hydrology. Topics covered include hydrometeorology monitoring, climate variability and trends, hydrological variability and trends, landscape dynamics, droughts, flood processes, and extreme events management, adaptation and mitigation. Each of the book's chapters provide background and theoretical foundations followed by approaches used and results of the applied studies. This book will be highly used by water resource managers and extreme event researchers who are interested in understanding the processes and teleconnectivity of large-scale climate dynamics and extreme events, predictability, simulation and intervention measures. Presents datasets used and methods followed to support the findings included, allowing readers to follow these steps in their own research Provides variable methodological approaches, thus giving the reader multiple hydrological modeling information to use in their work Includes a variety of case studies, thus making the context of the book relatable to everyday working situations for those studying extreme hydrology Discusses extreme event management, including adaption and mitigation
Download or read book Hurricane Risk written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book details the outcomes of new research focusing on climate risk related to hurricanes. Topics include numerical simulation of tropical cyclones, through tropical cyclone hazard estimation to damage estimates and their implications for commercial risk. Inspired by the 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change: From Hazard to Impact, this book brings together leading international academics and researchers, and provides a source reference for both risk managers and climate scientists for research on the interface between tropical cyclones, climate and risk.
Download or read book Simulations Of Tropical Cyclone In Regional Climate Models written by Zhong Zhong and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-02-01 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book studies the pitfalls of regional climate models in simulating track and intensity of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific for the East Asian summer monsoon climate.A number of sensitivity experiments related to tropical cyclone simulation with different model configurations and model physical schemes, including model resolution, model lateral boundary condition, effect of sea surface temperature, cumulus parameterization scheme and model microphysics scheme, as well as the features and the failure of tropical cyclone simulation in regional climate models were carefully analyzed with model output with high temporal resolution, to investigate shortcomings of the models, so as to come up with better models to simulate and study tropical cyclone track and intensity.The book is suitable for graduate students in meteorology with focuses in the tropical cyclone simulation, as well as professionals devoted to model development and study of tropical cyclone activities.
