Download or read book Endogenous Economic Fluctuations written by Mordecai Kurz and published by Studies in Economic Theory. This book was released on 1997-08-21 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents a new theory of expectations called "rational beliefs". Contrary to the standard theory which views the origin of uncertainty as being exogenous to the economic system, the theory of rational beliefs holds that a crucial component of social risk and economic fluctuations is endogenously propagated by variations in the state of beliefs of market participants. One part of the book provides an exposition of the foundation of the theory of rational beliefs. A second part explores the structure of general equilibrium models in which market participants hold rational beliefs. The "Applications" part of the book studies the behavior of asset prices and rates of return on financial assets. It demonstrates that endogenous uncertainty provides a uniform paradigm for the study of economic fluctuations.

Download or read book Endogenous Growth and Economic Fluctuations written by Ilaski Barañano and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends written by Antonio Fatás and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book Economic Fluctuations and Forecasting written by Vincent Su and published by Addison-Wesley. This book was released on 1996 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By explaining how, by how much, and why economics fluctuate during different stages of the business cycle, this work teaches students how to use, interpret and make macroeconomic forecasts while showing them the advantages and shortcomings of various forecasting methods. The book reviews the procedures used to construct econometric models and their general applications such as sensitivity studies and policy simulations with an emphasis on empirical evidence. It also examines the important role of macroeconomic data in economic fluctuations and forecasting, as well as the part played historically by business cycles in the US and the different theories that explain these cycles.

Download or read book Endogenous Growth and Cycles written by Joseph E. Stiglitz and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Schumpeter argued that economic downturns had positive effects, in the incentives that it provided for firms to increase their efficiency. Part 1. provides a simple model confirming Schwnpeter's insight At thesame time, the model shows that there are real costs to economic fluctuations which extend well beyond the temporary losses in output and the economic waste resulting from unused resources: the future productivity of the economy is adversely affected, e.g, because of reduced expenditures on R&D. These long run losses are likely to be far more significant than any temporary gains from any induced cost cutting. While traditional Schumpeterian analyses have focused on the relationships between market structure and innovation, they have paid less attention to the relationship between innovation and capital market imperfections (resulting, in many cases, from problems of costly and imperfect information which are particularly important in the context of innovation). It is these capital market imperfections which give result in the deleterious effect of economic downturns on technological progress. Part II. of the paper shows that the nexus between fluctuations and innovation goes in both directions: fluctuations in economic activity not only cause fluctuations in innovation, fluctuations in innovation may give rise to fluctuations in economic activity. The positive feedback relationship between innovation and economic activity may, under a variety of conditions, give rise to multiple equilibria. There is no presumption that the free market, left to itself, will choose the best among them. Moreover, it is shown that under certain circumstances, the only market equilibrium entails economic fluctuations. It is the structure of the economy, not exogenous disturbances (as in real business cycle theory) which give rise to cyclical behavior.

Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models written by John Stachurski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-25 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal growth theory studies the problem of efficient resource allocation over time, a fundamental concern of economic research. Since the 1970s, the techniques of nonlinear dynamical systems have become a vital tool in optimal growth theory, illuminating dynamics and demonstrating the possibility of endogenous economic fluctuations. Kazuo Nishimura's seminal contributions on business cycles, chaotic equilibria and indeterminacy have been central to this development, transforming our understanding of economic growth, cycles, and the relationship between them. The subjects of Kazuo's analysis remain of fundamental importance to modern economic theory. This book collects his major contributions in a single volume. Kazuo Nishimura has been recognized for his contributions to economic theory on many occasions, being elected fellow of the Econometric Society and serving as an editor of several major journals. Chapter “Introduction” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

Download or read book Advanced Macroeconomics written by Filipe R. Campante and published by LSE Press. This book was released on 2021-10-11 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic policy is one of the most important policy domains, and the tools of macroeconomics are among the most valuable for policy makers. Yet there has been, up to now, a wide gulf between the level at which macroeconomics is taught at the undergraduate level and the level at which it is practiced. At the same time, doctoral-level textbooks are usually not targeted at a policy audience, making advanced macroeconomics less accessible to current and aspiring practitioners. This book, born out of the Masters course the authors taught for many years at the Harvard Kennedy School, fills this gap. It introduces the tools of dynamic optimization in the context of economic growth, and then applies them to a wide range of policy questions – ranging from pensions, consumption, investment and finance, to the most recent developments in fiscal and monetary policy. It does so with the requisite rigor, but also with a light touch, and an unyielding focus on their application to policy-making, as befits the authors’ own practical experience. Advanced Macroeconomics: An Easy Guide is bound to become a great resource for graduate and advanced undergraduate students, and practitioners alike.

Download or read book Endogenous Growth Downward Wage Rigidities and Optimal Inflation written by Mirko Abbritti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop a NK framework with labour market frictions, endogenous productivity and downward wage rigidity (DWR) which challenges these results. The model features a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of two percent, a target value commonly used across central banks. Deviations from the optimal target carry welfare costs multiple times higher than in traditional NK models. The main reason is that endogenous growth and DWR generate asymmetric and hysteresis effects on unemployment and output. Price level targeting or a Taylor-rule responding to the unemployment rate can handle better the asymmetric and hysteresis effects in our model and deliver significant welfare gains. Our results are robust to the inclusion of the effective lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate.

Download or read book Economic growth and fluctuations with the endogenous length of business cycles written by Dong-pyo Hong and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Business Cycle Theories and Evidence written by M.T. Belongia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations. Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where the conference's participants view our current understanding to be, these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be explained by any theory that purports to capture the business cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished empirically. The conference then examined the implications for policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the cycle.

Download or read book Endogenous Growth Fluctuations in Unionised Economy with Productive Externalities written by Rui Coimbra and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book English Theories of Economic Fluctuations 1815 1848 written by Robert Grant Link and published by New York : Columbia University Press, 1959 [c1954]. This book was released on 1959 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the work of six economists to fill in a gap in the history of economic through in England from the end of the Napoleonic wars through 1848. Authors discussed include Robert Malthus, Thomas Tooke, John Stuart Mill, Thomas Attwood, Thomas Joplin, and James Wilson.

Download or read book Price Dynamics in Equilibrium Models written by Jan Tuinstra and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A long-standing unsolved problem in economic theory is how economic equilibria are attained. Price Dynamics in Equilibrium Models: The Search for Equilibrium and the Emergence of Endogenous Fluctuations considers a number of adjustment processes in different economic models and investigates their dynamical behaviour. Two important themes arising in this context are `bounded rationality' and `nonlinear dynamics'. Important sub-themes of the book are the following: how do boundedly rational agents interact with their environment and does this interaction in some sense lead to rational outcomes (which may or may not correspond to equilibria)? The second sub-theme deals with the consequences of the nonlinear dynamical nature of many adjustment processes. The results presented in this volume indicate that endogenous fluctuations are the rule rather than the exception in the search for equilibrium. The book uses the theory of nonlinear dynamics to analyze the dynamics of the different economic models. Due to the complexity of most of the models, an important role is played by computational methods. In particular, at regular instances the models are analyzed by numerical simulations and some computer-assisted proofs are provided. It also covers a wide range of dynamical models from economic theory. Most of these models merge the theory of nonlinear economic dynamics with the theory of bounded rationality. The book is written for anyone with an interest in economic theory in general and bounded rationality and endogenous fluctuations in particular. It is entirely self-contained and accessible to readers with only a limited knowledge of economic theory.

Download or read book Advances in Endogenous Money Analysis written by Louis-Philippe Rochon and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-10-27 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The endogenous nature of money is a fact that has been recognized rather late in monetary economics. Today, it is explained most comprehensively by the theory of money in post-Keynesian monetary theory. The expert contributors to this enlightening book revisit long-standing debates on the endogeneity of money from the position of both horizontalists and structuralists, and prescribe new areas of research and debate for post-Keynesian scholars to explore.

Download or read book Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations written by Philippe Aghion and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses recent theoretical and empirical work on the interactions between growth and business cycles. One may distinguish two very different types of approaches to the problem of the influence of macroeconomic fluctuations on long-run growth. In the first type of approach, which relies on learning by doing mechanisms or aggregate demand externalities, productivity growth and direct production activities are complements. An expansion therefore has a positive long-run effect on total factor productivity. In the second type of approach, hereafter labeled 'opportunity cost or 'learning-by-doing', productivity growth and production activities are substitutes. The opportunity cost of some productivity improving activities falls in a recession, which has a long-run positive impact on output. This does not mean, however, that recessions should on average last longer or be more frequent, since the expectation of future recessions reduces today's incentives for productivity growth. We also briefly discuss some empirical work which is mildly supportive of the opportunity cost approach, while showing that it can be reconciled with the observed pro-cyclical behavior of measured total factor productivity. We also describe some theoretical work on the effects of growth on business cycles.

Download or read book Equilibrium Models of Endogenous Fluctuations written by Michael Woodford and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: