Download or read book Empirical Essays on Financial Market Linkages in Macroeconomics written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Empirical Essays on Macro financial Linkages written by Ola Melander and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in International Macroeconomics written by Arjun Sondhi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crisis of 2007 provides a renewed interest in financial market linkages and their effect on macro variables. In an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model setting, two things are investigated in this paper. First, what role do financial linkages play in propagating asymmetric cross-country dynamics. Specifically, the impact of a productivity shock in home country leads to a more synchronous behavior in consumption and investment in recessions than in expansions. Secondly, a new source of shock is included, one in the financial sector itself. Cross-country asset prices and fixed assets move identically in this scenario implying perfect risk-sharing.

Download or read book Macroeconomics and Financial Markets written by Franziska M. Bremus and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics and International Financial Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics and Finance written by Tom Niklas Kroner and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation consists of three independent chapters focusing on empirical questions in macroeconomics and finance. In Chapter 1, I study the role of firms’ uncertainty in the transmission of forward guidance to investment. To do so, I employ a quarterly firm-level panel of U.S. publicly traded firms. I measure forward guidance shocks based on unexpected changes in the slope of the yield curve in a 30-minute window around Federal Reserve announcements. I show that firms which are more uncertain adjust their investment as if they are more pessimistic. More uncertain firms adjust their investment relatively more downward for expected monetary tightenings and relatively less upward for expected loosenings. To explain my empirical findings, I construct a New Keynesian model with a high-uncertainty and a low-uncertainty sector. Agents in the high-uncertainty sector are ambiguous (Knightian uncertain) about the informativeness of forward guidance, and choose to take a pessimistic stance due to their ambiguity aversion. The model implies that expansionary forward guidance is less powerful in recessions due to a larger share of uncertain agents. In Chapter 2, joint with Christoph Boehm, we provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using a unique intraday dataset, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all jump instantaneously upon news releases. The responses of stock indexes co-move across countries and are large—often comparable in size to the response of the S&P 500. Further, US macroeconomic news frequently explains more than 15% of the quarterly variation in foreign stock markets. The joint behavior of stock prices and long-term bond yields suggests that systematic US monetary policy reactions to news do not drive the estimated effects. Instead, the evidence is consistent with a direct effect on investors’ risk-taking capacity. Our findings show that a byproduct of the United States’ central position in the global financial system is that news about its business cycle has large effects on global financial conditions. In Chapter 3, joint with Christoph Boehm, we are trying to better understand how FOMC announcements affect the stock market. A large literature uses high-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements to study monetary policy. These yield changes have puzzlingly low explanatory power for the stock market—even in a narrow 30-minute window. We propose a new approach to test whether the unexplained variation represents monetary policy news or just noise. In particular, we allow for a latent “Fed non-yield curve shock”, which we estimate via a heteroskedasticity-based procedure. Using a test for weak identification, we show that our shock is well identified, that is, the unexplained variation is not just noise. We then go on to show that the shock, signed to increase stock prices, leads to sizable declines in the equity and variance premium, an increase in the 10-year term premium, an increase in short-run inflation expectations, as well as a dollar depreciation against multiple non-safe-haven currencies. Hence, the evidence supports the interpretation that the shock affects risk-appetite and leads to a reverse “flight-to-safety” effect. Lastly, using a method from the computational linguistics literature, we show that our shock can be linked to specific topics discussed in FOMC statements, suggesting that it reflects written communication by the Federal Reserve

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics Financial Markets and Epidemics written by Cesar Saturnino Salinas Depaz and published by . This book was released on 2024 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three chapters about how access to financial markets and composition of the labor market determine aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. The first chapter examines the macroeconomic consequences of credit uncertainty using a structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (SVAR-SV). Credit supply conditions in the U.S. is captured by the banks' reports on how credit standards for approving loans have change over time (Bank Lending Standards). The empirical analysis shows that the volatility of macroeconomic and financial variables rises in response to an increase in the credit uncertainty shock. The economic activity falls and credit growth and related interest rates decrease persistently. Moreover, credit volatility shocks explain around 10% of the FEV of endogenous variables. A dissagregated analysis shows that the effect of these shocks are mainly explained by their effects on the corporate business sector. The second chapter studies the role of time-varying credit limits through the lens of a life cycle incomplete markets model calibrated for the U.S. Changes in credit card limits are explained by observable household characteristics and the estimated unobservable variation is quite large. The quantitative exercise shows that even though young households are more indebted in an economy with stochastic borrowing limits, aggregate consumption is not greatly affected by transitory or persistent shocks of this type. However, in the presence of these shocks, households lose the ability to self-insure against other uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks, e.g., labor income shocks. A disaggregated analysis shows that the loss of self-insurance capacity is mainly explained by the effects that stochastic borrowing limits have on the wealth distribution, the precautionary savings channel households have to face unexpected risks. The third chapter studies the role of informal markets to explain economic and demographic variables during a pandemic. The quantitative exercise shows that lockdown policies are less effective in economies with large informal markets, infection and death rates will not decrease as much as formal economies. Moreover, the size of the recession would be exacerbated because informal activities are not counted in the calculation of the GDP. To generate similar results to an economy with only formal markets, the economy with informal markets must implement more severe containment policies.

Download or read book Empirical Essays on Macroeconomic Shocks and Financial Markets written by Robert Schelenz and published by . This book was released on 2019* with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Empirical Macroeconomics written by Sebastian Stumpner and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of two chapters which study questions at the intersection of macroeconomics, trade, and finance. The first chapter investigates the role of trade for the geographic spread of the 2007-09 recession within the U.S. The second chapter, co-authored with Mauricio Larrain, studies the role of financial market reforms for changes in aggregate productivity, using the example of Eastern European countries in the late 1990s and early 2000s. In the first chapter, I use the large spatial variation in consumer demand shocks at the onset of the Great Recession to study the mechanisms behind the ensuing geographic spread of the crisis. While the initial increase in unemployment was concentrated in areas with housing busts, subsequently unemployment slowly spread across space. By 2009, it was above pre-crisis levels in almost all U.S. counties. I show that trade was an important driver of this geographic spread of the crisis. To identify the trade channel empirically, I make use of heterogeneity in the direction of trade flows across industries in the same state: Industries that sold relatively more to states with housing boom-bust cycles grew by more before the crisis and declined faster from 2007-09. These results cannot be explained by a collapse in credit supply. I then link the reduced form empirical evidence to a formal model of contagion through trade. In a quantitative exercise, the model delivers a cross-sectional effect of similar magnitude as the one found empirically and reveals that the trade channel can explain roughly a third of the overall spread. The second chapter analyzes the microeconomic channels by which financial sector reforms affect aggregate productivity. We use a large firm-level dataset to study the episode of financial market liberalization in 10 Eastern European countries starting in the late 1990s. We exploit cross-sectoral differences in external financial dependence and find that financial reform increases productivity disproportionately in industries heavily dependent on external finance. We show that this productivity increase is driven entirely by improvements in the within-industry allocation of resources across firms, as opposed to within-firm productivity improvements. According to our results, reform allows financially-constrained firms to take on new debt, increase market share, and produce closer to optimal level. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that financial reform increases aggregate manufacturing productivity by 17%. Our results highlight financial markets' key role in improving the within-industry allocation of capital.

Download or read book Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets and Risk Asymmetries written by Jan Antell and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Empirical Essays in Finance and Macroeconomics written by David Michael Modest and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Theoretical and Empirical Studies in Financial Markets written by Xiandong Luo and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomics and Financial Market Imperfections written by Alexander Wulff and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of four self-contained papers that deal with the implications of financial market imperfections and heterogeneity. The analysis mainly relates to the class of incomplete-markets models but covers different research topics. The first paper deals with the distributional effects of financial integration for developing countries. Based on a simple heterogeneous-agent approach, it is shown that capital owners experience large welfare losses while only workers moderately gain due to higher wages. The large welfare losses for capital owners contrast with the small average welfare gains from representative-agent economies and indicate that a strong opposition against capital market opening has to be expected. The second paper considers the puzzling observation of capital flows from poor to rich countries and the accompanying changes in domestic economic development. Motivated by the mixed results from the literature, we employ an incomplete-markets model with different types of idiosyncratic risk and borrowing...

Download or read book Essays on Macro finance Relationships written by Azamat Abdymomunov and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In my dissertation, I study relationships between macroeconomics and financial markets. In particular, I empirically investigate the links between key macroeconomic indicators, such as output, inflation, and the business cycle, and the pricing of financial assets. The dissertation comprises three essays. The first essay investigates how the entire term structure of interest rates is influenced by regime-shifts in monetary policy. To do so, we develop and estimate an arbitrage-free dynamic term-structure model which accounts for regime shifts in monetary policy, volatility, and the price of risk. Our results for U.S. data from 1985-2008 indicate that (i) the Fed's reaction to inflation has changed over time, switching between "more active" and "less active" monetary policy regimes, (ii) the yield curve in the "more active" regime was considerably more volatile than in the "less active" regime, and (iii) on average, the slope of the yield curve in the "more active" regime was steeper than in the "less active" regime. The steeper yield curve in the "more active" regime reflects higher term premia that result from the risk associated with a more volatile future short-term rate given a more sensitive response to inflation. The second essay examines the predictive power of the entire yield curve for aggregate output. Many studies find that yields for government bonds predict real economic activity. Most of these studies use the yield spread, defined as the difference between two yields of specific maturities, to predict output. In this paper, I propose a different approach that makes use of information contained in the entire term structure of U.S. Treasury yields to predict U.S. real GDP growth. My proposed dynamic yield curve model produces better out-of-sample forecasts of real GDP than those produced by the traditional yield spread model. The main source of this improvement is in the dynamic approach to constructing forecasts versus the direct forecasting approach used in the traditional yield spread model. Although the predictive power of yield curve for output is concentrated in the yield spread, there is also a gain from using information in the curvature factor for the real GDP growth prediction. The third essay investigates time variation in CAPM betas for book-to-market and momentum portfolios across stock market volatility regimes. For our analysis, we jointly model market and portfolio returns using a two-state Markov-switching process, with beta and the market risk premium allowed to vary between "low" and "high" volatility regimes. Our empirical findings suggest strong time variation in betas across volatility regimes in most of the cases for which the unconditional CAPM can be rejected. Although the regime-switching conditional CAPM can still be rejected in many cases, the time-varying betas help explain portfolio returns much better than the unconditional CAPM, especially when market volatility is high.

Download or read book Four Essays in Dynamic Macroeconomics written by Qi Sun and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Theoretical and Empirical Essays in Econometrics and Finance Related to Structural Changes Volatility and Pension Fund Management written by Jing Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: This dissertation involves theoretical and empirical work covering three themes: testing for structural changes, optimal pension plan management, and the declining equity premium. The first chapter provides a comprehensive treatment of the problem of testing jointly for structural changes in both the regression coefficients and the variance of the errors in a single equation system involving stationary regressors. The framework is quite general in that it allows for general mixing-type regressors and the assumptions on the errors are quite mild. Their distribution can be non-Normal and conditional heteroskedasticity is permitted. Extensions to the case with serially correlated errors are also treated. Applications to US macroeconomic time series reinforce the prevalence of changes in both their mean and variance and the fact that for most series an important reduction in variance occurred in the 80s. In many cases, however, the so-called "great moderation" can instead be viewed as a "great reversion". The second chapter develops a dynamic asset-liability management model for defined-benefit pension plans. The plan sponsor exhibits features of loss aversion and tolerance for limited shortfalls in assets under management relative to the liability due. The optimal contribution policy, the optimal dividend policy and the associated asset allocation rule are derived and analyzed. Sound asset-liability management is shown to entail future withdrawals from as well as future contributions to the pension fund, even if the current funding shortfall is large. The third chapter investigates an alternative justification for the declining equity premium in the United States: changes in macroeconomic risks. Both theoretical and empirical linkages between the stock market and macroeconomic variables are examined. The analysis suggests that the fall in macroeconomic risks plays a role in the declining equity premium. Moreover, lower inflation after the oil shock period might also contribute to the lower equity premium. However, there is little evidence that interest rates and GDP growth have anything to do with the decline in the equity premium.

Download or read book Frontiers of Macrofinancial Linkages written by Stijn Claessens and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 confirmed the vital importance of advancing our understanding of macrofinancial linkages, the two-way interactions between the real economy and the financial sector. The crisis was a bitter reminder of how sharp fluctuations in asset prices, credit and capital flows can have dramatic impact on the financial positions of households, corporations and sovereign nations. As fluctuations were amplified, the global financial system was brought to the brink of collapse and the deepest contraction in world output in more than half a century followed. Moreover, unprecedented challenges for fiscal, monetary and financial regulatory policies resulted.The crisis revived an old debate in the economics profession about the importance of macrofinancial linkages. Some argue that the crisis was a painful reminder of our limited knowledge of these linkages. Others claim that the profession had already made substantial progress in understanding them but that there was too much emphasis on narrow approaches and modelling choices. Yet, most also recognise that the absence of a unifying framework to study these two-way interactions has limited the practical applications of existing knowledge and impeded the formulation of policies.With these observations in mind, this paper presents a systematic review of the rapidly expanding literature on macrofinancial linkages. It first surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. It then reviews the literature on the macroeconomic implications of financial imperfections. It also examines the global dimensions of macrofinancial linkages and documents the main stylized facts about the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector. The topic of macrofinancial linkages promises to remain an exciting area of research, given the many open questions and significant policy interest. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible directions for future research, stressing the need for richer theoretical models, more robust empirical work and better quality data so as to advance knowledge and help guide policymakers going forward.