Download or read book Empirical Biases and Some Remedies in Estimating the Effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses on Reenlistment Rates written by Jeremy Arkes and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers have, for decades, been attempting to estimate the effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRBs) on the probability of reenlistment for the military services. SRBs are targeted to specific military occupations for which reenlistment rates are lower (or expected to be lower) than what is needed. This article first identifies four primary sources of biases affecting these models: reverse causality from supply shifts (a negative bias), the endogeneity of the decision point causing coded SRBs to be higher for reenlisters than leavers (a positive bias), measurement error (a likely negative bias), and excess supply preventing the full effect of an SRB change to materialize (a positive or negative bias). The report proceeds to develop a model that attempts to address the first two biases. With U.S. Navy data from FY2001-FY2008, I examine the extent to which the biases are affecting the estimated SRB effects. I demonstrate that fixing the problem of the endogeneity of the decision point results in large reductions in the estimated SRB effects, as expected. There is also evidence consistent with measurement error causing a negative bias, also as expected. And, the evidence is mixed as to how the fix for reverse causality affects the estimates.
Download or read book A Model of Reenlistment Behavior written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A logit model was applied to estimate the effect of selective reenlistment bonuses (SRBs) on the retention rates of Army Soldiers. The model was estimated separately by occupational group and by first (zone A), second (zone B) and third term (zone C) reenlistment decisions. An "annualized cost of leaving" (ACOL) variable was constructed to estimate the net financial returns to reenlisting in the Army compared to leaving for the civilian sector. The model was estimated using data on actual reenlistments from the period FYl99O tlirough FY2OOO. The effects of SRBs on reenlistments at Zones A, B, and C were estimated at three levels of occupational aggregation-all Army, CMF, and MOS. After out-of-sample testing, we re-specified and re-estimated the model. In general, the results for Zone A at all levels of occupational aggregation indicate that reenlistment bonuses have a positive and statistically significant effect on Zone A reenlistments. The magnitude of the effect varied by occupation, but a one-level increase in SRB at Zone A typically increases the reenlistment rate by three to seven percentage points, depending upon the occupation. The results for Zone B are also solid at both the CMF and MOS levels. Results for Zone C, where reenlistment rates are typically very high, were reasonably solid but not as good as the Zone A and B results. We were unable to obtain positive, statistically significant ACOL parameter estimates for a small number of occupation groups. Statistically significant effects for demographic control variables and labor market conditions were also obtained.
Download or read book Army SRB Program written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this study the effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRBs) on Army reenlistments over the 1990-2000 period at Zones A, B, and C at three levels of occupational aggregation - all Army, career management field (CMF), and military occupational specialty (MOS) - were re-estimated to explicitly control for the drawdown in the mid-1990s as well as labor market conditions. In general, the results for Zone A at all levels of occupational aggregation indicate that reenlistment bonuses have a positive and statistically significant effect on Zone A reenlistments. A one-level increase in SRB at Zone A typically increases the reenlistment rate by 3 to 7 percentage points, depending upon the occupation. The results for Zone B are also solid at both the CMF and MOS levels. Results for Zone C, where reenlistment rates are typically very high, were reasonably solid but not quite as good as the Zone A and B results. The results provide the Army with estimates of reenlistment responsiveness to bonus changes for all three zones for all MOS. We also estimated the effect of SRBs on the reenlisting Soldier's choice of length of reenlistment. Increases in the SRB level not only increase reenlistments, but also increase the length of reenlistment. The length of reenlistment effects were incorporated into the SRB Management System to better predict program costs and the additional staff years of contracted service provided by the bonus program."--Stinet.
Download or read book The Effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses Part 1 Background and Theoretical Issues written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to manage its Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) program effectively, the U.S. Army needs reliable information about the effects of SRBs on reenlistment rates at the Military Occupational Speciality (MOS) level. Until recently, research has not addressed the reenlistment decision, bias due to population heterogeneity, and interaction between compensation policy and retention. This research examines these fundamental issues and suggests techniques for their application at the MOS level. It highlights the importance of (1) understanding institutional details of compensation policy, including the role of SRBs; (2) defining random error terms in the empirical analyses; and (3) using longitudinal research data.
Download or read book Military Retention Incentives written by Justin Joffrion and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The limited lateral entry and rigid pay structure for U.S. military personnel present challenges in retaining skilled individuals who have attractive options in the civilian labor market. One tool the services use to address this challenge is the Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB), which offers eligible personnel with particular skills a substantial cash bonus upon reenlistment. However, the sequential nature of the bonus offer and reenlistment process limits the ability to adjust manpower quickly, raising interest in research that estimates the effect of the SRB on retention. While this literature has acknowledged challenges including potential endogeneity of bonus levels, attrition, and reenlistment eligibility, many studies do not address these concerns adequately. This paper uses a comprehensive panel data set on Air Force enlisted personnel to estimate the effect of the SRB on retention rates. We exploit variation in bonus levels within skill groups, control for civilian labor market conditions, and model reenlistment eligibility to avoid common assumptions that lead to biased impact estimates. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effect of the bonus, with the largest effects on first-term service members and those whose skills have not historically received a substantial bonus. We also find evidence that the bonus affects the timing of reenlistment decisions in addition to their frequency.
Download or read book Cash Incentives and Military Enlistment Attrition and Reenlistment written by Beth J. Asch and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This monograph provides an empirical analysis of the enlistment, attrition, and reenlistment effects of bonuses, applying statistical models that control for such other factors as recruiting resources, in the case of enlistment and deployments in the case of reenlistment, and demographics. Enlistment and attrition models are estimated for the Army and our reenlistment model approach is twofold. The Army has greatly increased its use of reenlistment bonuses since FY 2004, and we begin by providing an in-depth history of the many changes in its reenlistment bonus program during this decade. We follow this with two independent analyses of the effect of bonuses on Army reenlistment. As we show, the results from the models are consistent, lending credence to the robustness of the estimates. One approach is extended to the Navy, the Marine Corps, and the Air Force, to obtain estimates of the effect of bonuses on reenlistment for all services. We also estimate an enlistment model for the Navy. The estimated models are used to address questions about the cost-effectiveness of bonuses and their effects in offsetting other factors that might adversely affect recruiting and retention, such as changes in the civilian economy and frequent deployments"--P. iii.
Download or read book Reenlistment Bonuses and First term Retention written by John H. Enns and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An extension of the methodology and data used in an earlier Rand study (reported in R-1502-ARPA) which developed and estimated a statistical model of reenlistment supply for the Army, Navy, and Air Force for a single year, FY 1971. The present study analyzes four years of reenlistment data (FY 1971-FY 1974) using two regression models to generate an estimate of a four-year average bonus response. It is concluded that (1) selective reenlistment bonuses have the desired positive effect on first-term reenlistment rates; (2) the bonus elasticity under current bonus policy is likely to about 2.0; (3) differences in bonus response between service branches are not large enough to require separate bonus management policies for each service; (4) the different bonus multiples each produce about the same per dollar effect; and (5) there is no evidence of differences between broadly defined occupational groups in bonus response. (Author).
Download or read book Towards a New Paradigm for Statistical Evidence written by Jae H. (Paul) Kim and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-08-31 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many scientists now widely agree that the current paradigm of statistical significance should be abandoned or largely modified. In response to these calls for change, a Special Issue of Econometrics (MDPI) has been proposed. This book is a collection of the articles that have been published in this Special Issue. These seven articles add new insights to the problem and propose new methods that lay a solid foundation for the new paradigm for statistical significance.
Download or read book Regression Analysis written by Jeremy Arkes and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-01-19 with total page 515 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thoroughly practical and engaging textbook is designed to equip students with the skills needed to undertake sound regression analysis without requiring high-level math. Regression Analysis covers the concepts needed to design optimal regression models and to properly interpret regressions. It details the most common pitfalls, including three sources of bias not covered in other textbooks. Rather than focusing on equations and proofs, the book develops an understanding of these biases visually and with examples of situations in which such biases could arise. In addition, it describes how ‘holding other factors constant’ actually works and when it does not work. This second edition features a new chapter on integrity and ethics, and has been updated throughout to include more international examples. Each chapter offers examples, exercises, and clear summaries, all of which are designed to support student learning to help towards producing responsible research. This is the textbook the author wishes he had learned from, as it would have helped him avoid many research mistakes he made in his career. It is ideal for anyone learning quantitative methods in the social sciences, business, medicine, and data analytics. It will also appeal to researchers and academics looking to better understand regressions. Additional digital supplements are available at: www.youtube.com/channel/UCenm3BWqQyXA2JRKB_QXGyw.
Download or read book A New Approach to Managing the Army Selective Reenlistment Bonus written by Sheldon E. Haber and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors develop a theoretical model of profit maximization in which the Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) is treated as a wage premium payable to servicemen who are more productive, more costly to recruit and train, and less likely to continue in the Army in the absence of the SRB. Empirical estimation of the model is based on measuring a serviceman's productivity (in terms of his civilian counterpart's occupational wage), recruitment and training costs, and separation rates. Multiple regression equations are used to estimate civilian wages (a proxy for productivity) as a function of civilian occupation, education, and age of the worker. The empirical model groups Military Occupational Specialties (MOS) into three categories--Combat Arms, Technical, and Support Services. The results for servicemen in grade E-4 reveal that the average SRB calculated by the model ($5,247) should be about the same as the actual payments ($5,297) for servicemen in Combat Arms, but should be higher ($7,308) compared to the actual ($5,312) for Technical occupations, and lower ($1,942) compared to the actual ($3,757) payments in the Support Services. The research shows that retention rates in Technical MOS can be raised by increasing the SRB. The required increase in SRB expenditures can be funded by reducing SRB payments in the Support Services. Keywords: Economics; Retention; Military pay; Recruitment cost; Human capital; Training cost; Civilian pay; Economic analysis; Military essentiality code.
Download or read book Effect of the Variable Reenlistment Bonus on Reenlistment Rates Empirical Results for FY 1971 written by John H. Enns and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report is a preliminary study affirming that the variable reenlistment bonus is an effective policy tool for increasing first-term reenlistment rates. In all three regression models of supply, for the Army, Navy, and Air Force, the estimated coefficient measuring the marginal response of the reenlistment rate to bonus awards proved positive, substantial, and statistically significant. There is some evidence that subgroups of the first-term enlisted force (classified by education, mental ability, and race) differ in their response to bonus awards, and that the response varies across DoD occupational groups. The results of this study are tentative in nature. The data used pertain to a single year, FY 71; because reenlistment behavior during this year was affected by the Vietnam conflict and the draft, future work with additional year group data is necessary.
Download or read book Cost Benefit Analysis of Lump Sum Bonuses for Zone A Zone B and Zone C Reenlistments Final Report written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) program is the primary tool for shaping the career force. The first-term, or Zone A, SRB is key because it is the only point at which recommended and eligible Marines can be denied reenlistment in a skill area (PMOS) if their numbers would exceed requirements. In this paper, we find that SRB multiples have a large effect on reenlistment rates by occupation. Additionally, lump-sum SRBs have a larger effect on reenlistment rates than those paid in timed installments. We estimate a model that includes factors influencing the reenlistment decision separately for Zones A, B, and C. Results suggest that SRBs significantly raise reenlistment rates in all zones. Furthermore, the switch to lump-sum SRBs had fairly dramatic effects on program costs. We estimate the Marine Corps saved $8 million in Zone A and $10.4 to $25.7 million in Zone B by offering lump-sum rather than timed bonuses in FYO3. We estimate predicted reenlistment rates by occupational field and bonus level and a decision model that strength planners can use to set Zone A SRB levels by PMOS. Finally, we compare the relative costs and benefits of SRBs versus lateral moves for filling boatspaces in undermanned areas.
Download or read book The Estimation of United States Army Reenlistment Rates written by Michael J. Streff and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Increasing Efficiency and Incentives for Performance in the Army s Selective Reenlistment Bonus SRB Program written by Beth J. Asch and published by . This book was released on 2021-10-05 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Improving the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Special and Incentive Pays in the Army, sponsored by the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Manpower and Reserve Affairs. The purpose of the project was to help the Army determine how to best increase incentives for higher performance among enlisted members and to more efficiently achieve Army retention objectives.
Download or read book The Effects of Bonuses on Army Reserve Reenlistments An Empirical Bayes Approach written by Charles Dale and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The President's Sixth Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation placed special emphasis on reserve compensation. This paper was written in support of the Sixth QRMC. Empirical Bayes estimation techniques have been especially useful in applications where existing data bases have been small or incomplete. An empirical Bayes analysis of Army Reserve reenlistment data showed that bonuses increased committed man-years of service and that 6-year bonuses are most cost-effective than 3-year bonuses. Keywords: Reserves; Economics; Earnings; Pay; Benefits; Recruiting; Retention; Reenlistments; Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation(QRMC); National guard; Compensation.
Download or read book How Have Deployments During the War on Terrorism Affected Reenlistment written by James Hosek and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2009-10-06 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research sought to understand how recent deployments have affected reenlistment by examining trends in deployments and reenlistments, developing a theoretical model, and conducting an econometric analysis of survey and administrative data to identify the effect of deployment, by service, on reenlistment. It also examined the role of reenlistment bonuses in maintaining reenlistment levels during the war on terrorism.
Download or read book I Want You written by Bernard D. Rostker and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006-09-08 with total page 833 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As U.S. military forces appear overcommitted and some ponder a possible return to the draft, the timing is ideal for a review of how the American military transformed itself over the past five decades, from a poorly disciplined force of conscripts and draft-motivated "volunteers" to a force of professionals revered throughout the world. Starting in the early 1960s, this account runs through the current war in Iraq, with alternating chapters on the history of the all-volunteer force and the analytic background that supported decisionmaking. The author participated as an analyst and government policymaker in many of the events covered in this book. His insider status and access offer a behind-the-scenes look at decisionmaking within the Pentagon and White House. The book includes a foreword by former Secretary of Defense Melvin R. Laird. The accompanying DVD contains more than 1,700 primary-source documents-government memoranda, Presidential memos and letters, staff papers, and reports-linked directly from citations in the electronic version of the book. This unique technology presents a treasure trove of materials for specialists, researchers, and students of military history, public administration, and government affairs to draw upon.
