Download or read book Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Market Return and Volatility Under Heterogeneous Market Characteristics written by Srikanta Kundu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Behaviour written by Xun Lei and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies how the Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) new measure capturing economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is related to stock market performance in the United States. We use a variety of methods to estimate different specifications. We find that an increase in the EPU index negatively affects the S&P500 returns and raises its implied volatility. However, there is no evidence to support that an increase in the EPU has a significant influence on dividend growth. Furthermore, the component of the EPU that has the strongest explanatory power is that based on newspaper coverage of policy uncertainty, while the other three components lack statistical significance. These findings suggest that the news information is an economically important risk factor for a financial market. This study also provides some further discussion on characteristics portfolio and predictability of cash flow and discount rate. Governments should try to maintain policy stability and sustainability, so that investors can make reasonable predictions about policy changes and arrange their investment planning accordingly. Moreover, investors should also pay attention to expectations of policy change and adjust their portfolios based on policy uncertainty exposure.

Download or read book Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns Evidence from Inter Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.

Download or read book Economic Policy Uncertainty and Equity Markets written by Jana Kheir and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).

Download or read book Investor Sentiment and Return Predictability of Economic Policy Uncertainty written by Zehui Wang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both economic policy uncertainty (EPU) innovation and investor sentiment affect stock market returns. However, their relative importance is typically examined separately in the finance literature. This study concentrates on examining how different investor sentiment regimes affect the relationship of EPU innovation and future stock market returns. Using the Baker et al. (2016) news-based measure to capture the changes in EPU in the United States and an indirect market-based index (Baker and Wurgler, 2006) as a proxy for different sentiment regimes, we find that EPU innovation is negatively correlated with future stock market returns. The negative predictive ability of changes in EPU on future stock returns is only significant under a high-sentiment regime. After adding the lagged business cycle and market volatility variables, the negative predictive ability of changes in EPU on future stock returns is still better under a high-sentiment regime than the negative predictive ability under a low-sentiment regime.

Download or read book International Evidence on the Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Market Liquidity written by FNU Pratima and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this dissertation, I investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market liquidity across a broad cross-section of countries. My dissertation is composed of three distinct yet related essays. My first essay examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity and various firm-level cross-sectional variables explaining the uncertainty-liquidity relationship. The focus of the second essay, using a sample for non-U.S. stocks cross-listed in the U.S., is to examine the role of cross-listing in moderating the above impact. In the third essay, I examine the market liquidity and country-level factors that explain the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and market liquidity.In the first essay, I investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity using an international sample of twenty-four countries spanning twenty-three years. The sample countries include fourteen developed and ten emerging countries. In this essay, I initially provide global evidence on the adverse impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on stock liquidity.The result holds for all the countries in the sample except Croatia and Russia. Subsequently, I investigate the role of firms' information environment in explaining the uncertainty-liquidity relationship. Considering informational transparency and quality of information as two aspects of the information environment, I find that firm-level informational transparency plays a significant role in mitigating EPU's effect on stock liquidity, whereas the quality of information does not.In the second essay, I investigate whether cross-listing a non-U.S. stock in the U.S. reduces the detrimental impact of EPU on the liquidity of that stock. My sample of cross-listed stocks includes the stocks from twenty countries, cross-listed in the U.S. In this essay, I first examine how domestic and U.S. EPUs affect the domestic liquidity of cross-listed stocks relative to their non-cross-listed domestic counterparts. Based on the findings, I document that cross-listing helps mitigate the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock liquidity--literature on cross-listing and liquidity documents that the impact of cross-listing on liquidity is contingent upon country characteristics. Using further analysis, I show that the role of cross-listing in mitigating the negative impact of EPU on domestic liquidity is contingent on home country characteristics. I provide evidence that cross-listing helps mitigate the negative impact for the stocks of developed strong governance countries but not for stocks of emerging and weak governance countries. The role of cross-listing in moderating the relationship between EPU and liquidity is stronger for common law countries relative to civil law countries.In the third essay, I examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market liquidity. Using a broad sample of twenty-four countries, I focus on the country-level characteristics that affect the EPU-liquidity relationship. Specifically, I study the role of market segmentation, financial development, funding constraint, and the country's governance structure in shaping the above relationship. I find that a country's financial development and its governance mechanism help mitigate EPU's negative effect on stock market liquidity. However, market integration, as captured through trade openness and political stability, worsen the impact.

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.

Download or read book Causality in Macroeconomics written by Kevin D. Hoover and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-08-13 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 2001, Causality in Macroeconomics addresses the long-standing problems of causality while taking macroeconomics seriously. The practical concerns of the macroeconomist and abstract concerns of the philosopher inform each other. Grounded in pragmatic realism, the book rejects the popular idea that macroeconomics requires microfoundations, and argues that the macroeconomy is a set of structures that are best analyzed causally. Ideas originally due to Herbert Simon and the Cowles Commission are refined and generalized to non-linear systems, particularly to the non-linear systems with cross-equation restrictions that are ubiquitous in modern macroeconomic models with rational expectations (with and without regime-switching). These ideas help to clarify philosophical as well as economic issues. The structural approach to causality is then used to evaluate more familiar approaches to causality due to Granger, LeRoy and Glymour, Spirtes, Scheines and Kelly, as well as vector autoregressions, the Lucas critique, and the exogeneity concepts of Engle, Hendry and Richard.

Download or read book Stock Market Returns Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Across Countries written by Steve Francis and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the co-movement and connectedness of: o USA Economic Policy Uncertainty index (EPU) o Stock market volatility of the S&P 500 index o USA volatility index VIX; o Canada – a regional G7 economy o Brasil – a regional BRIC economy o Major Caribbean economies: Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago This study examines these relationships utilising the generalised vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, based on the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) approach of developed by (Diebold & Yilmaz, 2012). Employing monthly data of the selected G7 economies and BRIC economies from May 2005 to March 2023

Download or read book Market Volatility Amidst Political Conflict and Uncertainty written by Deborah B. Beyer and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, rising economic policy uncertainty coupled with increasing levels of political polarization have impacted financial markets and by extension, investors in those markets. Literature has mainly focused its attention on one of these factors or the other, while few studies to date have examined their joint effects on stock market volatility. Yet politics and the economy are profoundly intertwined; they must be considered in tandem. Through a two-essay format, the objectives of this dissertation are to investigate the combined impact of economic policy uncertainty and partisan conflict on stock market volatility and further, to study the impact of partisan conflict in particular on politically sensitive industry volatility. Findings from Essay 1 provide evidence that economic policy uncertainty increases volatility, whereas partisan conflict reduces it. A deeper examination reveals that partisan conflict’s dampening effect exists only during periods of political gridlock. Essay 2 results show that partisan conflict also reduces industry-level volatility. Moreover, partisan conflict has a greater impact on reducing high politically sensitive industry volatility compared to industries with low political sensitivity. Results from both studies are meant to inform government policymakers, analysts, and investors of the effects these politically-related forces have on equity market volatility.

Download or read book Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation written by Hossein Asgharian and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate long-run stock market variances and correlations, primarily for the US and the UK. The US long-run stock market variance depends significantly on US EPU shocks but not on UK EPU shocks, while the UK long-run stock market variance depends significantly on both US and UK EPU shocks. The long-run correlation depends positively on the US EPU shocks. The dependence is asymmetrical, with only positive shocks (increasing uncertainty) being important. Out-of-sample analysis shows that models with the US EPU shocks perform well in predicting correlation. We further analyze categorical EPU shocks and several global stock markets.

Download or read book The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series written by Terence C. Mills and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-20 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Terence Mills' best-selling graduate textbook provides detailed coverage of research techniques and findings relating to the empirical analysis of financial markets. In its previous editions it has become required reading for many graduate courses on the econometrics of financial modelling. This third edition, co-authored with Raphael Markellos, contains a wealth of material reflecting the developments of the last decade. Particular attention is paid to the wide range of nonlinear models that are used to analyse financial data observed at high frequencies and to the long memory characteristics found in financial time series. The central material on unit root processes and the modelling of trends and structural breaks has been substantially expanded into a chapter of its own. There is also an extended discussion of the treatment of volatility, accompanied by a new chapter on nonlinearity and its testing.

Download or read book The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Commodity Correlations and Its Implications on Optimal Hedging written by Ihsan Badshah and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by previous studies documenting significant return and volatility effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the stock market, this study examines whether EPU has an effect on the dynamic conditional correlations between stock and commodity returns. Our findings point to a positive and significant effect of EPU on stock-commodity correlations with particularly stronger effects in the case of energy and industrial metals. The EPU effect is stronger during weak economic conditions, while VIX as a proxy of market uncertainty is generally found to be insignificant. Finally, we show that the EPU effect on correlations has investment implications as well, implied by a significant effect on optimal hedge ratios in commodities in order to mitigate stock market risks. Our results underscore the importance of selective hedging strategies in which risk managers base the timing and size of their hedging programs on future price expectations, conditional on the level of policy uncertainty state and prevalent economic conditions.

Download or read book Stock Market Volatility written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-04-08 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel

Download or read book Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Performance written by Vichet Sum and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the effect of the changes in economic policy uncertainty in Europe on the performance of stock markets in the European Union, Croatia, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine. Based on the analyses of monthly returns on the major stock market indices in these countries from 1993:2 to 2012:4, the results show that the changes in economic policy uncertainty in Europe negatively affect all stock market returns in the European Union, Croatia, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine, and the effect is statistically significant for all countries except Croatia and seven members (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia) of the European Union. The findings provide empirical evidence of the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the stock market performance in Europe. This study provides important implication for equity investment and risk management.

Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.