Download or read book Economically Sensible Solutions for Linear Rational Expectations Models with Forward and Backward Looking Dynamic Processes written by Michael Mussa and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using variants of a modified version of Dornbusch's model of price level and exchange rate dynamics, it is demonstrated that satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of a unigue non-explosive solution of a linear rational expectations model with forward and backward looking dynamic processes (equality of the number of stable roots with the number of independent backward looking processes) does not guarantee the economic sensibility of this solution, even if one accepts the usual arguments for excluding "speculative babbles" from the solutions of such models. Moreover, satisfaction of the formal condition for existence of an infinity of non-explosive solutions for such rational expectations models (more stable roots than independent backward looking processes) does not assure that any of these solutions is economically sensible.
Download or read book Nominations of H Robert Heller and Michael L Mussa written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Markets and the International Transmission of Fiscal Shocks written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-12-06 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Download or read book Empirical Tests of Alternative Models of International Growth written by Laurence J. Kotlikoff and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in patterns of international trade and growth have rekindled interest in the relationships among trade, growth, and the international distribution of income. Three alternative models can serve as a theoretical foundation for an empirical analysis of these relationships. The first is the standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (Ho) trade model with equalnumbers of factors and goods and incomplete specialization. The second model allows complete specialization and more goods than factors. The third model posits short run capital immobility. Each of these models has quite different implications for the determination of wage levels and growth rates. The conclusions that we draw from this research are rather mixed. Each of the models perform well on certain criteria and poorly on others. While the standard HO model clearly fails to satisfy certain cross-equation constraints, national endowments are remarkably good predictors of the locus of international production. There are, however, significant nonlinearities in the relationship between factor allocations and national endowments. Such nonlinearities are predicted by the uneven version of the HO model. At odds with both of these models is our finding that lagged values of inputs providean important explanation of current factor demands. Such correlations are suggested by the adjustment cost model.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance written by Shu-Heng Chen and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 785 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
Download or read book Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Nonseparable Utility and Durability of Goods written by Kenneth B. Dunn and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Empirical Evaluation of the Disequilibrium Real Wage Rate Hypothesis written by Jacques R. Artus and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise in the share of labor costs invalue added in many industrial countries during the 1970s and early 1980s has led many observers to conclude that real wages are now too high and a source of "classical" unemployment. These conclusions are not necessarily valid. The increase in the labor share could be warranted by long-run changes in production techniques, in the price of energy, or in the relative availability of labor and capital. This paper uses a production function approach to examine these possibilities
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination with Systematic and Unsystematic Policy Regime Changes written by John H. Makin and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents results of estimating an exchange rate equation in light of theoretical considerations regarding changes in sterilization and intervention policy and tax policy which imply that the coefficients in the equation will not behave as fixed parameters in a given sample period,as standard econometric practice assumes. We compare the results of ordinary least squares and a random coefficients model of the Japanese Yen-- U.S. dollar exchange rate during the floating period of July 1973 through June 1982.When systematic end of year policy changes affecting Japanese reserves are explicitly modeled, both OLS and the random coefficients model show increased explanatory power. The random coefficients model appears to be superior to OLS however; by allowing the coefficients to vary over time as required by the economic theory discussed above, estimates of the mean response coefficients for the floating period all have the hypothesized sign, and explanatory power is sharply increased.
Download or read book On the Theory of Optimal Taxation in a Growing Economy written by Martin S. Feldstein and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers the following question: Would a "golden rule" capital accumulation policy of equating the marginal product of capital to the rate of growth of population be appropriate in a mixed economy in which the government does not have direct control over resource allocation but can use distortionary taxes to obtain resources for augmenting the private capital stock? The key result derived hereis that the golden rule level of capital intensity remains optimal if the tax structure that prevails at the equilibrium does not alter the individual labor supply. This is true even if the constancy of labor supply represents a balancing of income effects and substitution effects of a distortionary tax. In contrast, if the form of the tax and the nature of the utility function imply that labor supply is distorted, the optimal capital intensity will in general not correspond to the golden rule level.
Download or read book Adjusting the Gross Changes Data written by James M. Poterba and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a procedure for adjusting the Current Population Survey gross changes data for the effects of reporting errors. The corrected data suggest that the labor market is much less dynamic than has frequently been suggested. Conventional measures sy understate the duration of unemployment by as much as eighty percent and overstate the extent of movement into and out ofthe labor force by several hundred percent. The adjusted data also throw demographic differences in patterns of labor market dynamics into sharp relief.
Download or read book The Causes of Inflation written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to provide a perspective on the causes of inflation by exploring why sustained inflations occur and the role of monetary policy in the inflation process. The conclusion reached in this paper is that in the last ten years there has been a convergence of views in the economics profession on the causes of inflation. As long as inflation is appropriately defined to be a sustained inflation, macro-economic analysis, whether of the monetarist or Keynesian persuasion, leads to agreement with Milton Friedman's famous dictum, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." However, the conclusion that inflation is a monetary phenomenon does not settle the issue of what causes inflation because we also need to understand why inflationary monetary policy occurs. This paper also examines this issue and it finds that the underlying cause of inflationin the United States has been accommodating monetary policy geared to achieving a high employment target. The role of expectations has been important in the inflationary process so that to prevent the resurgence of inflation at a minimum cost in terms of unemployment and output loss, monetary policy must be both non-accommodating and credible
Download or read book International Policy Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models written by Gilles Oudiz and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent analyses of the gains to policy coordination have focussed on the strategic aspects of macroeconomic policy making in a static setting. A major theme is that noncooperative policy making is likely to be Pareto inefficient because of the presence of beggar-thy-neighbor policies. This paper extends the analysis to a dynamic setting, thereby introducing three important points of realism to the static game. First, the payoffs to beggar-thy-neighbor policies look very different in one-period and multiperiod games, and thus so do the gains to coordination. Second, we show that policy coordination may reduce economic welfare if governments are nyopic in their policy making, as is sometimes claimed. Third, governments act under a fundamental constraint that they cannot bind the actions of later governments, and we investigate how this constraint alters the gains to policy coordination.
Download or read book The Adjustment Process and the Timing of Trade Liberalization written by Michael Mussa and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the appropriate time path of the tariff rate for a small open economy that has decided to move from protection of import competing industries to free trade. Adjustment costs for moving resources to alternative uses do not provide a rationale for gradual adjustment of the tariff rate because in the absence of distortions, rational optimizing agents will make socially appropriate investment decisions with respect to adjustment when they are qiven correct price signals. Some distortions of the adjustment process imply the desirability of gradual adjustment of the tariff rate to slow adjustment, but other distortions imply the desirability of subsidizing imports in the short run in order to speed movement of resources out of previously protected industries. Concern with the income redistribution effects of reductions in the tariff rate(which usually injure owners of factors in previously protected industries) does provide a general rationale for a gradual move to free trade. The influence of the unemployment consequences of tariff reduction on the appropriate path of commercial policy depends on the nature and shape of the respone of the rate of resource reallocation to the level of unemployment in previously protected industries.
Download or read book Financial Intermediation in the United States written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The principal rationales that give rise to financial intermediation are benefits of size and specialization, the diversification of specific asset risks, and the pooling of even broader classes of risk. Each is a significant factor in accounting for the U.S. economy's reliance on intermediation. In addition, since World War II a further important factor has been the economy's continual shift away from government debt toward the debt of private nonfinancial entities including individuals and businesses. Non financial investors (primarily individuals) have exhibited a strong preference for holding the debt of these nonfinancial borrowers via financial intermediaries rather than directly. As the U.S. economy's reliance on financial intermediaries overall has increased during the post-war period, some specific kinds of intermediary institutions have grown more rapidly than others. Commercial banks have about held their own in relative terms, while steadily shifting their basic business back toward lending activities and away from securities investments. Nonbank deposit intermediaries have grown in relation to overall economic and financial activity, as the growth of savings and loan associations has more than offset the (relative) decline of mutual savings banks. Among private nondeposit intermediaries, life insurance companies have declined in relative terms while both public and private sector pension funds have shown exceptionally rapid growth. Finally, the federal government's participation in the financial intermediation process in the United States has also increased rapidly during these years, in part as a result of the pressures created by the economy's shift to private instead of government debt.
Download or read book Ricardian Consumers with Keynesian Propensities written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we examine Ricardian equivalence of debt and tax finance in a world in which taxes are not lump-sum but are levied on risky labor income. First, we show that the marginal propensity to consume out of a tax cut, coupled with a future income tax increase, is positive under reasonable assumptions regarding preferences toward risk. Second, we document that the degree of income uncertainty facing the typical individual orfamily is large. Third, we show that, for plausible utility function parameters and distributions of future income, the MPC out of a tax cut is quantitatively large. Indeed, the MPC out of a tax cut, coupled with a future income tax increase, can be closer to the Keynesian value that ignores the future tax liabilities than to the Ricardian value that treats future taxes as if they were lump-sum.
Download or read book Estimating the Long run Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation written by Lawrence H. Summers and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note demonstrates that Bennett McCallum's recent critique of low frequency estimates of macro-economic relationships is of little empirical significance. It also demonstrates that readily available and frequently used techniques can be used to diagnose the problem McCallum raises. Finally, it shows that the standard critique of expectational distributed lags is not warranted once the role of learning by economic agents is recognized.
Download or read book The International Linkage of Real Interest Rates written by Robert E. Cumby and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Casual observation indicates that in recent years real interest rates in the United States appear to have risen sharply and have remained high relative to historical standards. Many observers have claimed that these high real rates have been transmitted abroad and have lead to high real rates in the rest of the industrialized countries. Concern over the level of real rates has been widespread in the analyses by economic policymakers both in Europe and in the United States. In this paper we present evidence on several questions regarding the movement in short term real interest rates in eight countries that have been raised by the recent policy debates in Europe and the United States: Have ex ante real rates in the United States and Europe been high during recent years? Has there been a link between U.S. real rates and those in other countries? Can this link be quantified?The basic finding in this paper is that real rates have climbed dramatically from the 1970s to the 1980s in both the European countries and the United States. Indeed, real interest rates in the United States are currently at high levels unprecedented in the post war period, which rival the levels that occurred during the Great Depression. Complaints that real interest rates in the United States are exceedingly high seem to be well justified. There is also strong evidence that there is a positive association between movements in U.S. real rates and those in Europe. However,European real rates typically do not move one-for-one with U.S. real rates,still leaving open the possibility that European monetary policy can influence domestic economic activity.
