Download or read book Economic Policy Model Uncertainty and Elections written by W. A. Letterie and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Policy Model Uncertainty and Elections written by Wilko A. Letterie and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Economic Vote written by Raymond M. Duch and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-17 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes a selection model for explaining cross-national variation in economic voting: Rational voters condition the economic vote on whether incumbents are responsible for economic outcomes, because this is the optimal way to identify and elect competent economic managers under conditions of uncertainty. This model explores how political and economic institutions alter the quality of the signal that the previous economy provides about the competence of candidates. The rational economic voter is also attentive to strategic cues regarding the responsibility of parties for economic outcomes and their electoral competitiveness. Theoretical propositions are derived, linking variation in economic and political institutions to variability in economic voting. The authors demonstrate that there is economic voting, and that it varies significantly across political contexts. The data consist of 165 election studies conducted in 19 different countries over a 20-year time period.
Download or read book The Economic Vote written by Duch Raymond M Stevenson Randolph T and published by . This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defining and measuring the economic vote -- Patterns of retrospective economic voting in western democracies -- Estimation, measurement and specification -- Competency signals and rational retrospective economic voting -- What do voters know about economic variation and its sources? -- Political control of the economy -- Responsibility, contention, and the economic vote -- The distribution of responsibility and economic vote -- The pattern of contention and the economic vote.
Download or read book Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy written by Alberto Alesina and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of election, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.
Download or read book Economic Assessment of Election Programmes written by Johan J. Graafland and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Netherlands, the election programmes of the political parties are assessed for their economic impact by an independent economic bureau. The result of this analysis is published just before the elections take place. In this way, the voter will be protected against political parties that try to win the elections by making popular but unfounded financial promises. Economic Assessment of Election Programmes contains contributions of several distinguished economists and philosophers who consider the gains of this procedure to society. Does the analysis by the Netherlands' Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) raise the democratic quality of the elections? Can we really be confident in the tools of economics? The last section of this volume states the opinion of representatives of the political parties. This part also clarifies why political parties voluntarily participate in this process and how they perceive the role division between the political party and CPB.
Download or read book Modeling Politics with Economic Tools written by Mr.Jan-Peter Olters and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2001-01-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whereas the economics discipline possesses a highly refined theoretical apparatus to analyze the effects of government behaviour on the economy, it has not (yet) managed to fully develop a positively formulated "economic theory of politics" that would permit the integration of the decision-making processes of voters, parties and governments with those of consumers and firms. Considerable recent advances notwithstanding, the large and heterogeneous body of literature has (so far) remained outside the economic mainstrain. The paper surveys the main approaches used to endogenize democratic elements and assesses the underlying reasons for researchers' renewed interest in this field.
Download or read book Policy Uncertainty in Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Download or read book Democracy Under Siege written by Timothy Hellwig and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-29 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 was catalyst for the most precipitous economic downturn in eight decades. This book examines how the GFC and ensuing Great Recession affected electoral politics in the world's developed democracies. The initial wave of research on the crisis concluded it did little to change the established relationships between voters, parties, and elections. Yet nearly a decade since the initial shock, the political landscape has changed in many ways, the extent to which has not been fully explained by existing studies. Democracy Under Siege? pushes against the received wisdom by advancing a framework for understanding citizen attitudes, preferences, and behaviour. It makes two central claims. First, while previous studies of the GFC tend to focus on an immediate impact of the crisis, Hellwig, Kweon, and Vowles argue that economic malaise has a long lasting impact. In addition to economic shock, the economic recovery has a significant impact on citizens' assessment of political elites. Second, the authors argue that unanticipated exogenous shocks like the GFC grants party elites an opening for political manoeuvre through public policy and rhetoric. As a result, political elites have a high degree of agency to shape public perceptions and behaviour. Political parties can strategically moderate citizens' economic uncertainty, mobilise/demobilise voters, and alter individuals' political preferences. By leveraging data from over 150,000 individuals across over 100 nationally-representative post-election surveys from the 1990s to 2017, this book shows how economic change during a tumultuous era affected economic perceptions, policy demands, political participation, and the vote. The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) is a collaborative program of research among election study teams from around the world. Participating countries include a common module of survey questions in their post-election studies. The resulting data are deposited along with voting, demographic, district, and macro variables. The studies are then merged into a single, free, public dataset for use in comparative study and cross-level analysis. The set of volumes in this series is based on these CSES modules, and the volumes address the key theoretical issues and empirical debates in the study of elections and representative democracy. Some of the volumes will be organized around the theoretical issues raised by a particular module, while others will be thematic in their focus. Taken together, these volumes will provide a rigorous and ongoing contribution to understanding the expansion and consolidation of democracy in the twenty-first century. Series editors: Hans-Dieter Klingemann and Ian McAllister.
Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Andreas Schedler and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a major new theory of authoritarian politics. It studies regime struggles between government and opposition under electoral authoritarianism and argues that autocracies suffer from institutional uncertainties.
Download or read book The Message Matters written by Lynn Vavreck and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions.
Download or read book Elections Political Polarization and Economic Uncertainty written by Scott R. Baker and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine patterns of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) around national elections in 23 countries. Uncertainty shows a clear tendency to rise in the months leading up to elections. Average EPU values are 13% higher in the month of and the month prior to an election than in other months of the same national election cycle, conditional on country effects, time effects, and country-specific time trends. In a closer examination of U.S. data, EPU rises by 28% in the month of presidential elections that are close and polarized, as compared to elections that are neither. This pattern suggests that the 2020 US Presidential Election could see a large rise in economic policy uncertainty. It also suggests larger spikes in uncertainty around future elections in other countries that have experienced rising polarization in recent years.
Download or read book Election Meltdown written by Richard L. Hasen and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2020-02-04 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the nation’s leading expert, an indispensable analysis of key threats to the integrity of the 2020 American presidential election As the 2020 presidential campaign begins to take shape, there is widespread distrust of the fairness and accuracy of American elections. In this timely and accessible book, Richard L. Hasen uses riveting stories illustrating four factors increasing the mistrust. Voter suppression has escalated as a Republican tool aimed to depress turnout of likely Democratic voters, fueling suspicion. Pockets of incompetence in election administration, often in large cities controlled by Democrats, have created an opening to claims of unfairness. Old-fashioned and new-fangled dirty tricks, including foreign and domestic misinformation campaigns via social media, threaten electoral integrity. Inflammatory rhetoric about “stolen” elections supercharges distrust among hardcore partisans. Taking into account how each of these threats has manifested in recent years—most notably in the 2016 and 2018 elections—Hasen offers concrete steps that need to be taken to restore trust in American elections before the democratic process is completely undermined.
Download or read book The Price of Political Uncertainty written by Bryan T. Kelly and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty, guided by a theoretical model of government policy choice. After deriving the model's predictions for option prices, we test those predictions in an international sample of national elections and global summits. We find that political uncertainty is priced in the option market in ways predicted by the theory. Options whose lives span political events tend to be more expensive. Such options provide valuable protection against the risk associated with political events, including not only price risk but also variance and tail risks. This protection is more valuable in a weaker economy as well as amid higher political uncertainty.
Download or read book The American Political Economy written by Douglas A. Hibbs and published by . This book was released on 1987-10-22 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and authoritative work on relationships between the economy and politics in the years from Eisenhower through Reagan. Hibbs identifies which groups “win” and “lose” from inflations and recessions and shows how voters’ perceptions and reactions to economic events affect the electoral fortunes of political parties and presidents.
Download or read book Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises written by Allen N. Berger and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank’s performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank’s output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts
Download or read book Mandates Parties and Voters written by James H Fowler and published by Temple University Press. This book was released on 2007-04-15 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most research on two-party elections has considered the outcome as a single, dichotomous event: either one or the other party wins. In this groundbreaking book, James Fowler and Oleg Smirnov investigate not just who wins, but by how much, and they marshal compelling evidence that mandates-in the form of margin of victory-matter. Using theoretical models, computer simulation, carefully designed experiments, and empirical data, the authors show that after an election the policy positions of both parties move in the direction preferred by the winning party-and they move even more if the victory is large. In addition, Fowler and Smirnov not only show that the divergence between the policy positions of the parties is greatest when the previous election was close, but also that policy positions are further influenced by electoral volatility and ideological polarization. This pioneering book will be of particular interest to political scientists, game theoreticians, and other scholars who study voting behavior and its short-term and long-range effects on public policy.
