Download or read book The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity What are the Channels of Impact written by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.
Download or read book Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior written by Wolfram Schlenker and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2019-11-13 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agricultural yields have increased steadily in the last half century, particularly since the Green Revolution. At the same time, inflation-adjusted agricultural commodity prices have been trending downward as increases in supply outpace the growth of demand. Recent severe weather events, biofuel mandates, and a switch toward a more meat-heavy diet in emerging economies have nevertheless boosted commodity prices. Whether this is a temporary jump or the beginning of a longer-term trend is an open question. Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior examines the factors contributing to the remarkably steady increase in global yields and assesses whether yield growth can continue. This research also considers whether agricultural productivity growth has been, and will be, associated with significant environmental externalities. Among the topics studied are genetically modified crops; changing climatic factors; farm production responses to government regulations including crop insurance, transport subsidies, and electricity subsidies for groundwater extraction; and the role of specific farm practices such as crop diversification, disease management, and water-saving methods. This research provides new evidence that technological as well as policy choices influence agricultural productivity.
Download or read book Long Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change A Cross Country Analysis written by Matthew E. Kahn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
Download or read book Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts written by Richard W. Katz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.
Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 1074 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters written by Debarati Guha-Sapir and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-23 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.
Download or read book Satellite Observations of the Earth s Environment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-07-03 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report addresses the transition of research satellites, instruments, and calculations into operational service for accurately observing and predicting the Earth's environment. These transitions, which take place in large part between NASA and NOAA, are important for maintaining the health, safety, and prosperity of the nation, and for achieving the vision of an Earth Information System in which quantitative information about the complete Earth system is readily available to myriad users. Many transitions have been ad hoc, sometimes taking several years or even decades to occur, and others have encountered roadblocksâ€"lack of long-range planning, resources, institutional or cultural differences, for instanceâ€"and never reached fruition. Satellite Observations of Earth's Environment recommends new structures and methods that will allow seamless transitions from research to practice.
Download or read book Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-06-18 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
Download or read book The Economics of Climate Change written by Gary D. Libecap and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While debates over the consequences of climate change are often pessimistic, historical data from the past two centuries indicate many viable opportunities for responding to potential changes. This volume takes a close look at the ways in which economies—particularly that of the United States—have adjusted to the challenges climate change poses, including institutional features that help insulate the economy from shocks, new crop varieties, irrigation, flood control, and ways of extending cultivation to new geographic areas. These innovations indicate that people and economies have considerable capacity to acclimate, especially when private gains complement public benefits. Options for adjusting to climate change abound, and with improved communication and the emergence of new information and technologies, the potential for adaptation will be even greater in the future.
Download or read book Impact of Weather and Climate on Agriculture written by Environmental Science Information Center. Library and Information Services Division and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting written by David Hendry and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-11 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Download or read book Weather Impacts on the Budget and the Economy written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on the Budget. Task Force on Community and Physical Resources and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fair Weather written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-05-14 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decades of evolving U.S. policy have led to three sectors providing weather servicesâ€"NOAA (primarily the National Weather Service [NWS]), academic institutions, and private companies. This three-sector system has produced a scope and diversity of weather services in the United States second to none. However, rapid scientific and technological change is changing the capabilities of the sectors and creating occasional friction. Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services examines the roles of the three sectors in providing weather and climate services, the barriers to interaction among the sectors, and the impact of scientific and technological advances on the weather enterprise. Readers from all three sectors will be interested in the analysis and recommendations provided in Fair Weather.
Download or read book Warming the World written by William D. Nordhaus and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003-08-11 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. Humanity is risking the health of the natural environment through a myriad of interventions, including the atmospheric emission of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, the use of ozone-depleting chemicals, the engineering of massive land-use changes, and the destruction of the habitats of many species. It is imperative that we learn to protect our common geophysical and biological resources. Although scientists have studied greenhouse warming for decades, it is only recently that society has begun to consider the economic, political, and institutional aspects of environmental intervention. To do so raises formidable challenges of data modeling, uncertainty, international coordination, and institutional design. Attempts to deal with complex scientific and economic issues have increasingly involved the use of models to help analysts and decision makers understand likely future outcomes as well as the implications of alternative policies. This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. They can help policy makers design better economic and environmental policies.
