Download or read book Econometrics for Decision Making written by Charles F. Manski and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the early 1940s, Haavelmo proposed a probabilistic structure for econometric modeling, aiming to make econometrics useful for public decision making. His fundamental contribution has become thoroughly embedded in subsequent econometric research, yet it could not fully answer all the deep issues that the author raised. Notably, Haavelmo struggled to formalize the implications for decision making of the fact that models can at most approximate actuality. In the same period, Wald initiated his own seminal development of statistical decision theory. Haavelmo favorably cited Wald, but econometrics subsequently did not embrace statistical decision theory. Instead, it focused on study of identification, estimation, and statistical inference. This paper proposes statistical decision theory as a framework for evaluation of the performance of models in decision making. I particularly consider the common practice of as-if optimization: specification of a model, point estimation of its parameters, and use of the point estimate to make a decision that would be optimal if the estimate were accurate. A central theme is that one should evaluate as-if optimization or any other model-based decision rule by its performance across the state space, not the model space. I use prediction and treatment choice to illustrate. Statistical decision theory is conceptually simple, but application is often challenging. Advancement of computation is the primary task to continue building the foundations sketched by Haavelmo and Wald.

Download or read book Economic Decision making written by Jean Jaskold Gabszewicz and published by North Holland. This book was released on 1990 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles illustrates the interplay between economic and game theory, econometrics and optimisation in economic decision making. The contributions from these three areas are presented in honour of Jacques Dregrave;ze and are inspired by his vision of how these disciplines can and should interact. The material illustrates how each of the disciplines has evolved over the last twenty years, and emphasizes the continuous need for interdisciplinary approaches to economic decision-making.

Download or read book Econometric Models as Guides for Decision making written by Lawrence Robert Klein and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Econometric Decision Models written by Josef Gruber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 629 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains a refereed selection of revised papers which were originally presented at the Second International Conference on Econometric Decision Models, University of Hagen (FernUni versitat). The conference was held in Haus Nordhelle, a meeting place in the mountainous area " Sauerland" , some 50 kilometers south of Hagen, on August 29 - September 1, 1989. Some details about this conference are given in the first paper, they need not be repeated here. The 40 papers included in this volume are organized in 10 "parts", shown in the table of contents. Included are such "fashionable" topics like "optimal control", "cointegration" and "rational expec tations models". In each part, the papers have been arranged alphabetically by author, unless there were good reasons for a different arrangement. To facilitate the decision making of the readers, all papers (except a few short ones) contain an abstract, a list of keywords and a table of contents. At the end of the proceedings volume, there is a list of authors. More than ten years ago, I began to organize meetings of econometricians, mainly called "seminar" or " colloquium". One major purpose of these meetings has always been to improve international cooperation of econometric model builders (and model users) from "the East" and "the West". Unprecedented changes to the better have taken place recently ("perestroika"). For a large fraction of participants from the Soviet Union, the 1989 conference was the first conference in a Western country.

Download or read book Information and Efficiency in Economic Decision written by Jati Sengupta and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Use of information is basic to economic theory in two ways. As a basis for optimization, it is central to all normative hypotheses used in eco nomics, but in decision-making situations it has stochastic and evolution ary aspects that are more dynamic and hence more fundamental. This book provides an illustrative survey of the use of information in econom ics and other decision sciences. Since this area is one of the most active fields of research in modern times, it is not possible to be definitive on all aspects of the issues involved. However questions that appear to be most important in this author's view are emphasized in many cases, without drawing any definite conclusions. It is hoped that these questions would provoke new interest for those beginning researchers in the field who are currently most active. Various classifications of information structures and their relevance for optimal decision-making in a stochastic environment are analyzed in some detail. Specifically the following areas are illustrated in its analytic aspects: 1. Stochastic optimization in linear economic models, 2. Stochastic models in dynamic economics with problems of time-inc- sistency, causality and estimation, 3. Optimal output-inventory decisions in stochastic markets, 4. Minimax policies in portfolio theory, 5. Methods of stochastic control and differential games, and 6. Adaptive information structures in decision models in economics and the theory of economic policy.

Download or read book Dynamic Perspectives on Managerial Decision Making written by Herbert Dawid and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-15 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume collects research papers addressing topical issues in economics and management with a particular focus on dynamic models which allow to analyze and foster the decision making of firms in dynamic complex environments. The scope of the contributions ranges from daily operational challenges firms face to strategic choices in dynamic industry environments and the analysis of optimal growth paths. The volume also highlights recent methodological developments in the areas of dynamic optimization, dynamic games and meta-heuristics, which help to improve our understanding of (optimal) decision making in a fast evolving economy.

Download or read book Multiple Criteria Decision Making and its Applications to Economic Problems written by Enrique Ballestero and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multiple Criteria Decision Making and its Applications to Economic Problems ties Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)/Multiple Objective Optimization (MO) and economics together. It describes how MCDM methods (goal programming) can be used in economics. The volume consists of two parts. Part One of the book introduces the MCDM approaches. This first part, comprising Chapters 1-5, is basically an overview of MCDM methods that can most likely be used to address a wide range of economic problems. Readers looking for an in-depth discussion of multi-criteria analysis can grasp and become acquainted with the initial MCDM tools, language and definitions. Part Two, which comprises Chapters 6-8, focuses on the theoretical core of the book. Thus in Chapter 6 an economic meaning is given to several key concepts on MCDM, such as ideal point, distance function, etc. It illustrates how Compromise Programming (CP) can support the standard premise of utility optimisation in economics as well as how it is capable of approximating the standard utility optimum when the decision-makers' preferences are incompletely specified. Chapter 7 deals entirely with production analysis. The main characteristic throughout the Chapter refers to a standard joint production scenario, analysed from the point of view of MCDM schemes. Chapter 8 focuses on the utility specification problem in the n-arguments space within a risk aversion context. A link between Arrows' risk aversion coefficient and CP utility permits this task. The book is intended for postgraduate students and researchers in economics with an OR/MS orientation or in OR/MS with an economic orientation. In short, it attempts to fruitfully link economics and MCDM.

Download or read book Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by J. Geweke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).

Download or read book Decision Economics written by Edgardo Bucciarelli and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The special session on Decision Economics (DECON) is a scientific forum held annually, which is focused on sharing ideas, projects, research results, models, and experiences associated with the complexity of behavioural decision processes and socio-economic phenomena. In 2018, DECON was held at Campus Tecnológico de la Fábrica de Armas, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain, as part of the 15th International Conference on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence. For the third consecutive year, this book have drawn inspiration from Herbert A. Simon's interdisciplinary legacy and, in particular, is devoted to designs, models, and techniques for boundedly rational decisions, involving several fields of study and expertise. It is worth noting that the recognition of relevant decision-making takes place in a range of critical subject areas and research fields, including economics, finance, information systems, small and international business management, operations, and production. Therefore, decision-making issues are of fundamental importance in all branches of economics addressed with different methodological approaches. As a matter of fact, the study of decision-making has become the focus of intense research efforts, both theoretical and applied, forming a veritable bridge between theory and practice as well as science and business organisations, whose pillars are based on insightful cutting-edge experimental, behavioural, and computational approaches on the one hand, and celebrating the value of science as well as the close relationship between economics and complexity on the other. In this respect, the international scientific community acknowledges Herbert A. Simon's research endeavours to understand the processes involved in economic decision-making and their implications for the advancement of economic professions. Within the field of decision-making, indeed, Simon has become a mainstay of bounded rationality and satisficing. His rejection of the standard (unrealistic) decision-making models adopted by neoclassical economists inspired social scientists worldwide with the purpose to develop research programmes aimed at studying decision-making empirically, experimentally, and computationally. The main achievements concern decision-making for individuals, firms, markets, governments, institutions, and, last but not least, science and research. This book of selected papers tackles these issues that Simon broached in a professional career spanning more than sixty years. The Editors of this book dedicated it to Herb.

Download or read book Bayesian Economics Through Numerical Methods written by Jeffrey H. Dorfman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-31 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing researchers in economics, finance, and statistics with an up-to-date introduction to applying Bayesian techniques to empirical studies, this book covers the full range of the new numerical techniques which have been developed over the last thirty years. Notably, these are: Monte Carlo sampling, antithetic replication, importance sampling, and Gibbs sampling. The author covers both advances in theory and modern approaches to numerical and applied problems, and includes applications drawn from a variety of different fields within economics, while also providing a quick overview of the underlying statistical ideas of Bayesian thought. The result is a book which presents a roadmap of applied economic questions that can now be addressed empirically with Bayesian methods. Consequently, many researchers will find this a readily readable survey of this growing topic.

Download or read book Econometrics and Decision Making written by Emre Soyer and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Economic Decision making written by Jean Jaskold Gabszewicz and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Strategic Economic Decision Making written by Jeff Grover and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-05 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Solve Complex Problems is a quick primer on the topic that introduces readers to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time. This brief is meant for non-statisticians who are unfamiliar with Bayes’ theorem, walking them through the theoretical phases of set and sample set selection, the axioms of probability, probability theory as it pertains to Bayes’ theorem, and posterior probabilities. All of these concepts are explained as they appear in the methodology of fitting a Bayes’ model, and upon completion of the text readers will be able to mathematically determine posterior probabilities of multiple independent nodes across any system available for study. Very little has been published in the area of discrete Bayes’ theory, and this brief will appeal to non-statisticians conducting research in the fields of engineering, computing, life sciences, and social sciences.

Download or read book Applied Decision Analysis and Economic Behaviour written by Andrew J. Hughes Hallett and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The optimisation of economic systems over time, and in an uncertain environment, is central to the study of economic behaviour. The behaviour of rational decision makers, whether they are market agents, firms, or governments and their agencies, is governed by decisions designed to seeure the best outcomes subject to the perceived information and economic responses (inlcuding those of other agents). Economic behaviour has therefore to be analysed in terms of the outcomes of a multiperiod stochastic optimisation process containing four main components: the economic responses (the dynamic constraints, represented by an economic model); the objec tive function (the goals and their priorities); the conditioning information (expected exogenous events and the expected future state of the economy); and risk manage ment (how uncertainties are accommodated). The papers presented in this book all analyse some aspect of economic behaviour related to the objectives, information, or risk components of the decision process. While the construction of economic models obviously also has a vital role to play, that component has received much greater (or almost exclusive) attention elsewhere. These papers examine optimising behaviour in a wide range of economic problems, both theoretical and applied. They reflect a variety of concerns: economic responses under rational expectations; the Lucas critique and optimal fiscal or monetary poli eies; market management; partly endogenous goals; evaluating government reactions; locational decisions; uncertainty and information structures; and forecasting with endogenous reactions.

Download or read book Axioms of Cooperative Decision Making written by Hervé Moulin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991-07-26 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a unified and comprehensive study of welfarism, cooperative games, public decision making, and voting and social choice theory.

Download or read book Econometric Decision Models written by J. Gruber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Beliefs Interactions and Preferences written by Mark J. Machina and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field. This book addresses some of the questions that have recently emerged in the research on decision-making and risk theory. In particular, authors have modeled more and more as interactions between the individual and the environment or between different individuals the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of information treatment traditionally called `rationality'. This book analyzes several cases of such an interaction and derives consequences for the future of decision theory and risk theory. In the last ten years, modeling beliefs has become a specific sub-field of decision making, particularly with respect to low probability events. Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations than it used to be fitted to, multiple dimensions in consequences. This book deals with some of the most conspicuous of these advances. It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions. The volume is organized in three main blocks: The first block is the more `traditional' one. It deals with new extensions of the existing theory, as is always demanded by scientists in the field. A second block handles specific elements in the development of interactions between individuals and their environment, as defined in the most general sense. The last block confronts real-world problems in both financial and non-financial markets and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contributions can be brought to them by the type of research reported on here.