Download or read book High School Dropout Graduation and Completion Rates written by National Academy of Education and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-17 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High school graduation and dropout rates have long been used as indicators of educational system productivity and effectiveness and of social and economic well being. While determining these rates may seem like a straightforward task, their calculation is in fact quite complicated. How does one count a student who leaves a regular high school but later completes a GED? How does one count a student who spends most of his/her high school years at one school and then transfers to another? If the student graduates, which school should receive credit? If the student drops out, which school should take responsibility? High School Dropout, Graduation, and Completion Rates addresses these issues and to examine (1) the strengths, limitations, accuracy, and utility of the available dropout and completion measures; (2) the state of the art with respect to longitudinal data systems; and (3) ways that dropout and completion rates can be used to improve policy and practice.
Download or read book Early warning Indicators of High School Dropout written by Barbara Ann Boyd and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which there are characteristics of sixth grade students and their schools that are predictive of whether students are promoted on time to the tenth grade, as an early-warning indication of dropout. Many studies have examined the reasons for dropout and determined it to be a multifaceted and challenging problem with no single reason for students' to drop out. This study examined the variables associated with dropout and applied them to on-time arrival to the tenth grade using both variable- and person-centered approaches. The variables selected for this study are readily available data on students from schools including attendance, behavior, core academic performance, and sociodemographic factors. The setting for this study was Columbus City Schools, the largest school district in the state of Ohio. To qualify for this participant set, students needed to have data from the end of sixth grade (school year 2009-2010) and the beginning of tenth grade (school year 2013-2014). The sample included 2162 sixth grade students from 34 Columbus City Schools who had an average rate for on-time promotion of 81.5% to the tenth grade, meaning that 18.5% of the students or 400 students in this sample were not promoted to the tenth grade on time.
Download or read book Using an Early Warning System to Identify and Support Students at Risk for High School Dropout written by National High School Center and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 2 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States high school dropout problem has been called a national crisis, with only 74.9% of public high school students graduating with a diploma in 2008. With states and districts under mounting pressure to raise graduation rates, there is increasing urgency to obtain more accurate and timely data to systematically identify students most likely to drop out of high school so that dropout prevention supports can be offered to get them back on track to graduate. Early warning systems can help educators predict which students may be in danger of dropping out of high school by using indicators based on readily available school-level data (e.g., attendance and course performance). To facilitate the establishment and use of early warning systems across the nation, the National High School Center has developed an" Early Warning System Implementation Guide" and a free downloadable Microsoft Excel-based tool, the "Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0". The EWS Tool v2.0 is based on research on the academic and behavioral predictors of dropout and can be used by schools, districts, and states to identify students who are at risk for dropping out of high school. This brochure details what early warning systems are and how they can be used to identify and support students who are at risk of dropout, and provides a brief overview of the EWS Tool v2.0 and early warning system implementation process. (Contains 4 footnotes.).
Download or read book Developing Early Warning Systems to Identify Potential High School Dropouts Issue Brief written by Jessica B. Heppen and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The high school dropout problem has been called a national crisis. Educators, researchers, and policymakers continue to work to identify effective dropout prevention approaches. One important element of such prevention efforts is the identification of students at highest risk for dropping out and then the targeting of resources to keep them in school. An early warning system that uses "indicators based on readily accessible data" can predict, during students' first year in high school, whether the students are on the right path toward eventual graduation. Research is clear that ninth grade is a "make or break" year. More students fail ninth grade than any other grade in high school, and a disproportionate number of students who are held back in ninth grade subsequently drop out. Recent research in large urban school districts, including Chicago and Philadelphia, provides information about powerful indicators that can predict, by the end of the first year of high school, or even during the first semester, whether students will complete high school. This brief guide reviews this research and uses it as a basis for providing guidance to schools and districts about using data to address the dropout problem. This guide, intended for educators and policymakers at the school, district, and state levels, is designed to provide information about the following: (1) Factors that contribute to a student's dropping out; (2) Research on early warning indicators; (3) School-level early warning systems; (4) District-level early warning systems; and (5) States' roles in supporting the development and use of early warning systems. (Contains 3 tables and 3 endnotes.).
Download or read book Beyond Early Warning Indicators written by Dario Sansone and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper combines machine learning with economic theory in order to analyse high school dropout. It provides an algorithm to predict which students are going to drop out of high school by relying only on information from 9th grade. This analysis emphasizes that using a parsimonious early warning system - as implemented in many schools - leads to poor results. It shows that schools can obtain more precise predictions by exploiting the available high-dimensional data jointly with machine learning tools such as Support Vector Machine, Boosted Regression and Post-LASSO. Goodness-of-fit criteria are selected based on the context and the underlying theoretical framework: model parameters are calibrated by taking into account the policy goal - minimizing the expected dropout rate - and the school budget constraint. Finally, this study verifies the existence of heterogeneity through unsupervised machine learning by dividing students at risk of dropping out into different clusters.
Download or read book Are Two Commonly Used Early Warning Indicators Accurate Predictors of Dropout for English Learner Students written by Theresa Deussen and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Students who drop out of high school are at increased risk of a range of negative social and economic consequences, including lower earnings and poorer health. To reduce dropout rates and lessen these negative consequences, districts around the country are using early warning indicators to identify and provide supports for students at risk of dropping out. Typically, these early warning indicators include some combination of attendance, course failures, grade point average, and suspensions or expulsions. It is not clear whether these commonly used early warning indicators work equally well for English learner students. National data suggest that English learner students drop out of high school at higher rates than other students do. English learner students are a heterogeneous group that includes students born in the United States, new immigrants, and refugees, all with varying degrees of prior exposure to English and, for those not born in the United States, different education experiences prior to arrival. Some English learner students start kindergarten in this country, while others do not arrive here until they are in high school. Some English learner students may receive only two or three years of English language services, while others may receive eight or more years. Current national data do not capture the variation in dropout and graduation rates for those different types of English learner students. This study compares data for a particular group of students--those who were classified as English learner students at any point in their K-12 education (referred to as "ever-English learner students" in this report) with data for students who were never classified as English learner students (referred to as "never-English learner students"). It also compares outcomes across subgroups of the ever-English learner student population. Specifically, the study addresses how the graduation and dropout rates of different subgroups of ever-English learner students compare with one another and with those of never-English learner students. And it examines whether two early warning indicators used to predict dropping out (six or more absences in grade 9 plus at least one course failure in grade 9, and at least one suspension or expulsion in grade 9) are accurate and useful indicators for different groups of ever-English learner students compared with never-English learner students. The students in the study are from six school districts in the south King County area of Washington state. The districts are part of the Road Map Project, a cradle-to-career initiative that seeks to double the number of students on track to graduate from college or earn a career credential between 2010 and 2020. As part of the initiative, the districts have been using a common set of early warning indicators since 2011. The initiative also has a work group focused on the large number of English learner students in the region. Regional Educational Laboratory Northwest has partnered with the work group since 2012 to use data and evidence to better understand the needs and challenges of English learner students and to inform decisions about policy and practice. The study findings highlight notable differences in graduation and dropout rates among subgroups of English learner students. Key findings from the study include: (1) Students who had ever been English learners had four-year graduation rates that were 9.5 percentage points lower and dropout rates that were 0.7 percentage point higher than those of students who had never been English learners; (2) Certain subgroups of English learner students had considerably different graduation and dropout rates from those of other English learner students; relative to long-term proficient English learner students, newcomer English learner students' four-year graduation rates were 33.8 percentage points lower and their dropout rates were 5.8 percentage points higher; and (3) The Road Map Project's early warning indicators, originally developed for Seattle Public Schools, were unable to accurately identify many future dropouts, especially among newcomer English learner students. Given that the accuracy of the Road Map Project indicators varied for subgroups of English learner students and may be evidence of the need to select and validate indicators specifically for the population of interest, the Road Map Project and other states and districts may want to examine the accuracy of their own indicators for different student populations. If early warning indicators are weaker for a specific subgroup of English learner students, then teachers, counselors, and others may want to monitor the needs of that group in other ways. The following are appended: (1) Data and methodology; and (2) Supplemental results.
Download or read book Building an Early Warning System to Identify Potential High School Dropouts written by Linda Shealy and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over one million high school students drop out of school each year in this country. Dropping out of school is a serious problem for the student, community, and the nation. Often dropouts are unable to compete in an increasingly technological society and face numerous consequences from their decision to leave school early including higher levels of poverty, unemployment, public assistance, incarceration, and poor health. Dropping out is a gradual process of school disengagement and related to individual, family, and school factors. In the past, it has been difficult to track individual student's progress through school and to determine accurate dropout and graduation rates. In 2005, the National Governors Association made a commitment to implement a uniform method to calculate and report graduates and dropouts as well as better data collections systems. This study intended to replicate aspects of other major studies around the county to determine the best early predictors of dropping out of school in this large school district in southern Arizona and use this information to build an early warning system. Student data were obtained from the district's Research and Accountability office for a cohort of students (n=6751) who began the ninth grade in fall 2006 and graduated or should have graduated in 2010. Data collected included general demographic information, academic data, number of schools attended, and school withdrawal codes. The intent of this research was to determine if there were statistically significant differences between dropouts and graduates in the variables collected and which variables yielded the highest effect sizes and should be included in the district's early warning system. Two analyses were used to determine significance differences between dropouts and graduates. Then four analyses were performed to determine the highest-yield variables for this district. Consistent with recent research in the field, the variables of ninth grade attendance, ninth grade English and Math grades, and GPA were the strongest predictors of student dropouts. Local educators can use this early warning information to help identify potential high school dropouts as early as possible and intervene more efficiently and effectively with these students.
Download or read book Early Warning Indicators and Segmentation Analysis written by Jobs for the Future and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nationally, more than one million youth drop out of high school each year. One in four young people do not graduate with their age mates. Thus, in recent years, national leaders have directed sustained attention to what they term the "dropout crisis," particularly in high schools that are graduating less than two-thirds of their students. The U.S. Department of Education has responded by requiring more transparency about graduation rates and providing unprecedented support to address this crisis through programs such as School Improvement Grants and the High School Graduation Initiative. Along with early warning indicators, another important type of data study is segmentation analysis. This study involves looking at data on current high school students who are significantly off track for graduation and using that information to plan appropriate recovery programming for specific groups of students (e.g., those far off track to graduation but still in school). While early warning indicators focus on dropout prevention, segmentation studies help districts assess the numbers of youth who are off track for graduation (and by how much) and inform the growth of appropriate recovery programming. This technical resource guide leads school districts and their staff (at both administrative and school levels) through the technical steps involved in establishing an early warning system and conducting a segmentation study. The guide is organized into the following sections: (1) Section 1 provides basic background on early warning systems for staff at all levels, the research behind these systems, their uses, and the reasons why a school district would set their development as a key goal for its staff and schools; (2) Section 2 is intended primarily for a school district's department of research, assessment, and evaluation. It specifies the type of data needed to establish an early warning system, as well as the simple descriptive ways to analyze the data to determine a set of early warning indicators; (3) Section 3 discusses the types of reporting that are essential to an early warning system. It provides detail on how district-level data can be captured in user-friendly reports for school-level staff who work directly with students. This section is particularly intended for use by the district's technology and information department that generates the reports electronically from databases; (4) Section 4 provides practical examples from school districts that developed and implemented early warning systems. It also suggests some solutions to the most common roadblocks that districts encounter at each stage of developing an early warning system; (5) Section 5 walks districts through the rationale for and steps to conduct a segmentation study; and (6) Appendix A provides some information on additional resources that can help to guide a district with the steps needed to develop an early warning system, first ensuring effective use of information at the school level and then organizing staff and services to fashion a system of effective interventions. Additional resources listed here provide guidance on achieving staff buy-in, providing professional development, building an intervention team and selecting appropriate interventions for identified students. This information is relevant for both district-office and school-based staff. (A bibliography is included.).
Download or read book Approaches to Dropout Prevention written by Louise Kennelly and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Issue Brief written by Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development (ED), Policy and Program Studies Service and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2013-14, the high school graduation rate reached a record high of 82 percent (U.S. Department of Education 2015a). Despite the gains, over half a million students still drop out of high school each year (U.S. Department of Education 2015b). High schools have adopted various strategies designed to keep students who are at risk of not graduating in school and on track for earning the credits required to graduate. "At-risk" students are defined as those failing to achieve basic proficiency in key subjects or exhibiting behaviors that can lead to failure and/or dropping out of school. Dropout prevention strategies are diverse; they vary in type of program, services offered, frequency, intensity, and duration of contact with target students. The U.S. Department of Education (Department) sponsored the National Survey on High School Strategies Designed to Help At-Risk Students Graduate (HSS), which aimed to provide descriptive information on the prevalence and characteristics of dropout prevention strategies for at-risk students. The survey collected data in the 2014-15 school year from a nationally representative sample of 2,142 public high schools and focused on 13 specific high school improvement strategies identified by a panel of external experts and senior Department officials. This brief on Early Warning Systems is the first in a series of briefs being released this fall with key findings about these high school improvement strategies. The report includes the appendix: Early Warning Systems (Survey Excerpt).
Download or read book Developing Early Warning Systems to Identify Potential High School Dropouts written by Jessica B. Heppen and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Early Warning Indicator Systems written by Molly Ryan and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Boosting high school graduation rates is a growing concern to educators and policymakers. Researchers stress that, although graduation rates have varied little in recent years, "[w]hat makes current graduation rates alarming is a reality of the new U.S. economy: It is practically impossible for individuals lacking a high school diploma to earn a living or participate meaningfully in civic life." Research shows that students who fail to graduate high school exhibit clear signs of dropping out. Warning signs such as irregular attendance, poor academic performance, behavior problems and grade retention are more precise predictors of whether a student will ultimately drop out than are social and economic indicators such as family income and parental involvement. States have made notable progress collecting longitudinal information that follows individual students over time. Access to such student data has prompted state and school district officials across the country to develop "early warning indicator systems" to efficiently identify students who are at risk of dropping out and provide targeted supports to get them back on track and graduate. This paper provides summaries that highlight the statewide early warning indicator systems in Louisiana, South Carolina, and Alabama and the Philadelphia Public Schools district-wide system. (Contains 19 endnotes.).
Download or read book Getting Students on Track for Graduation written by Ann-Marie Faria and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although high school graduation rates are rising--the national rate was 82 percent during the 2013/14 school year (U.S. Department of Education, 2015)--dropping out remains a persistent problem in the Midwest and nationally. Many schools now use early warning systems to identify students who are at risk of not graduating, with the goal of intervening early to help students get back on track for on-time graduation. Although research has guided decisions about the types of data and indicators used to flag students as being at risk, little is known about the impact of early warning systems on students and schools--and in particular, whether these systems do help get students back on track. This study, designed in collaboration with the REL Midwest Dropout Prevention Research Alliance, examined the impact and implementation of one early warning system--the Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System (EWIMS)--on student and school outcomes. To assess the impact of EWIMS on student and school outcomes, 73 high schools in three Midwest Region states were randomly assigned to implement EWIMS during the 2014/15 school year (37 EWIMS schools) or to continue their usual practices for identifying and supporting students at risk of not graduating on time and to delay implementation of EWIMS until the following school year (36 control schools). The study included 37,671 students in their first or second year of high school, with 18,634 students in EWIMS schools and 19,037 students in control schools. EWIMS and control schools and students were similar on all background characteristics prior to random assignment. The study examined the impacts of EWIMS on indicators of student risk and on student progress in school after the first year of EWIMS adoption. The study found that EWIMS reduced the percentage of students with risk indicators related to chronic absence and course failure but not related to low GPAs or suspension: (1) The percentage of students who were chronically absent (missed 10 percent or more of instructional time) was lower in EWIMS schools (10 percent) than in control schools (14 percent); this 4 percentage point difference was statistically significant; and (2) The percentage of students who failed one or more courses was lower in EWIMS schools (21 percent) than in control schools (26 percent); this 5 percentage point difference was statistically significant; (3) The percentage of students who had a low GPA (2.0 or lower) was 17 percent in EWIMS schools and 19 percent in control schools; this difference was not statistically significant. However, sensitivity analyses that used continuous GPA data instead of the binary risk indicator showed that, on average, GPAs were higher in EWIMS schools (2.98) than in control schools (2.87); this difference was statistically significant; and (4) The percentage of students who were suspended once or more was 9 percent in both EWIMS and control schools; there was no statistically significant difference. EWIMS did not have an impact on student progress in school. That is, there was not a statistically significant difference between EWIMS and control schools in the percentage of students who earned insufficient credits to be on track to graduate within four years (14 percent in both). At the school level, EWIMS did not have a detectable impact on school data culture, that is, the ways in which schools use data to make decisions and identify students in need of additional support. In nearly all participating schools, overall implementation of the EWIMS seven-step process was low, and implementation was challenging. Nevertheless, EWIMS schools were more likely than control schools to report using an early warning system and having a dedicated team to identify and support at-risk students, but EWIMS schools did not differ from control schools in the frequency of data review or the number and type of interventions offered. This report provides rigorous initial evidence that even with limited implementation during the first year of adoption, using a comprehensive early warning system can reduce the percentage of students who are chronically absent or who fail one or more courses. These short-term results are promising because chronic absence and course failure in grades 9 and 10 are two key indicators that students are off track for on-time graduation. However, because the past research linking indicators to on-time graduation is correlational, it is not yet known if improving these indicators leads to improving on-time graduation rates. Also, EWIMS did not have a detectable impact on other measured indicators that are related to students' likelihood of on-time graduation, including low GPAs, suspensions, and earning insufficient credits. Future research is needed to better understand the mechanisms through which EWIMS had an impact on chronic absence and course failure and why EWIMS did not affect other outcomes. In particular, studies could focus on identifying which staff actions and student experiences lead to improved student outcomes. Studies should also examine whether schools achieve improved overall implementation in subsequent years and whether (and how) the observed impacts fade, grow larger, or extend to other risk indicators (low GPAs and suspensions); to intermediate outcomes (including student persistence and progress in school); and to long-term outcomes (including dropout and on-time graduation rates). The following are appended: (1) Planned implementation of the Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System; (2) Recruitment, random assignment, and study sample; (3) Data collection and analytic methods; (4) Detailed findings and supplementary analyses; and (5) Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest.
Download or read book Why We Drop Out written by Deborah L. Feldman and published by Teachers College Press. This book was released on 2017-07-14 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These engaging narratives and unique insights will help readers to better understand the interplay of school-related and personal factors that lead students to drop out of school. It is essential reading for K12 educators, school principals, counselors, psychologists, and everyone concerned with our nations dropout crisis.
Download or read book The On track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation written by Elaine Marie Allensworth and published by . This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The First Year Of High School Is A Critical Transition Period For Students, Those Who Succeed In Their First Year Are More Likely To Continue To Do well in The Following Years And Eventually Graduate. Because A Successful Transition Into High School Is So Important, In 1999 The Consortion Developed An Indicator To Gauge Whether Students Make Sufficient Progress In Their Freshman Year Of High School To Be On-Track To Graduate Within Four Years. The Evidence Presented Here Suggests That the On-Track Indicator Can Be A Valuable Tool For Parents, Schools, And The School System As They Work To Improve Students Likelihood Of Graduating.
Download or read book Creating an Early Warning System written by Kazuaki Uekawa and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Brief presents an historical analysis of key indicators of dropout for Delaware students in grades 9-12. Cut points for key risk indicators of high school dropout for the State of Delaware are provided. Using data provided by the Delaware Department of Education (DDOE), relationships between student dropout and several student indicators were empirically evaluated. Three key indicators of dropout were identified: (1) students' attendance,; (2) students' math course grades; and (3) students' English language arts (ELA) course grades. The following are appended: (1) Detailed Description of Methodology; (2) Descriptive Statistics; (3) Detailed Logistic Regression Results; (4) Robustness of Cut Points; (5) State-Level Cut Points; and (6) District-Level Cut Points.
Download or read book Using an Early Warning System to Identify Potential High School Dropouts written by Dawn B. Hillman and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
