Download or read book Early Warning Indicators of Banking Sector Distress written by Michael M. Hutchison and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Financial Cycles Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises written by Ms. Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-29 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
Download or read book Distress in European Banks written by Mr.Martin Cihak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-01-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of early identification of weak banks: when problems are identified late, solutions are much more costly. Until recently, Europe has seen only a small number of outright bank failures, which made the estimation of early warning models for bank supervision very difficult. This paper presents a unique database of individual bank distress across the European Union from mid-1990s to 2008. Using this data set, we analyze the causes of banking distress in Europe. We identify a set of indicators and thresholds that can help to distinguish sound banks from those vulnerable to financial distress.
Download or read book Currency and Banking Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Download or read book Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction Through Early Warning Systems written by Qaiser Munir and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addresses the inequity of developed and developing nations from the bottom up through an exploration of current literature, specific case-studies, and data-based recommendations for new crisis indicators. It explores such topics as the Greek debt crisis, electronic banking, and financial crises in developing economies.
Download or read book A Leading Indicator Model of Banking Distress Developing an Early Warning System for Hong Hong and Other EMEAP Economies written by Jim Wong and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study develops a probit econometric model to identify a set of leading indicators of banking distress and estimate banking distress probability for Hong Kong and other EMEAP economies. Macroeconomic fundamentals, currency crisis vulnerability, credit risk of banks and companies, asset price bubbles, credit growth, and the occurrence of distress of other economies in the region are found to be important leading indicators of banking distress in the home economy. The predictive power of the model is reasonably good. A case study of Hong Kong based on the latest estimate of banking distress probability and stress testing results shows that currently the banking sector in Hong Kong is healthy and should be able to withstand well certain possible adverse shocks. Under some extreme shocks originating from real GDP growth and property prices such as those that occurred during the Asian financial crisis, the model indicates a non-negligible risk of an occurrence of banking distress in Hong Kong. However, the chances of the occurrence of such severe events are extremely low. Simulation results also suggest that compared to the period before the Asian financial crisis, the local banking sector is currently more capable of withstan ding shocks similar to those that occurred during that crisis. The study also finds that banking distress is contagious, suggesting that to be effective in monitoring banking distress, close cooperation between central banks should be in place.
Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Download or read book Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress written by Marcin Pietrzak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-23 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows how the role of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) in financial surveillance can be usefully enhanced. Drawing from different statistical techniques, the paper illustrates that FSIs generate signals that can accurately detect, with 4 to 12 quarters lead, emerging financial distress—as measured by tight financial conditions.
Download or read book The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises written by Jens Michael Rabe and published by diplom.de. This book was released on 2000-03-30 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflicted substantial financial, economic, and social damage on the countries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiency of early warning indicators for these disastrous economic events is evaluated. An analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency crises is performed in order to extract potential early warning indicators that are suggested by theory. Alongside others, these candidate indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that are reviewed in this work. The results are mixed, but somewhat encouraging for further research in this field. Furthermore, the analysis is extended to a critique of systems of early warning indicators currently used by international institutions. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction1 2.The Currency Crisis Literature as a Reference Point for the Identification of Early Warning Indicators4 2.1The Traditional Theory5 2.2Second Generation Models11 2.3A Cross-generation Framework Proposition19 2.4Early Warning Indicators as Suggested by Theory22 3.The Empirical Assessment of Early Warning Indicators24 3.1Univariate Indicators for Financial Crises24 3.1.1Cross-Country Regressions26 3.1.2Multivariate Probit Models35 3.1.3The Signals Approach40 3.2Composite Leading Indicators for Financial Crises48 4.A Critique of Early Warning Indicators Used in Practice53 5.Conclusion64 Appendix68 Bibliography69
Download or read book Predicting Distress in European Banks written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators written by Mr.Hyun Song Shin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-20 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares three types of early warning indicators of financial instability – those based on financial market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries. Prices perform well as concurrent indicators of market conditions but are not suitable as early warning indicators. Total credit and liabilities convey similar information and perform better as early warning indicators, but liabilities are more transparent and the decomposition between core and non-core liabilities convey additional useful information.
Download or read book Managing Elevated Risk written by Iwan J. Azis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-11 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the risks and opportunities that arise in Emerging Asia given the context of a new environment in global liquidity and capital flows. It elaborates on the need to ensure financial and overall economic stability in the region through improved financial regulation and other policy measures to minimize the emergent risks. "Managing Elevated Risk: Global Liquidity, Capital Flows, and Macroprudential Policy—An Asian Perspective" also explores the range of policy options that may be deployed to address the impact of global liquidity on domestic financial and socio-economic conditions including income inequality. The book is primarily aimed at policy makers, financial market regulators and supervisory agencies to help them improve national regulatory systems and to promote harmonization of national regulations and practices in line with global standards. Scholars and researchers will also gain important information and knowledge about the overall impacts of changing global liquidity from the book.
Download or read book Inside the Crisis written by Asli Demirgüç-Kunt and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contemporary banking crises are not accompanied by declines in aggregate bank deposits, and credit does not fall relative to output, but the growth of both deposits and credit does slow down substantially. Output recovery begins the second year after the crisis and is not led by a resumption of credit growth. Instead, banks (including the stronger banks) reallocate their asset portfolio away from loans.Much of the substantial literature on banking crises focuses on early warning indicators. Demirguc-Kunt, Detragiache, and Gupta look at what happens to the economy and the banking sector after a banking crisis breaks out.Much of the theory of banking crises assigns a central role to depositor runs, with vulnerability to runs viewed as a basic characteristic of banks as financial intermediaries. But banking systems can be financially distressed even when depositors do not withdraw their deposits, if other bank creditors rush for the exit or if banks become insolvent.Are contemporary banking crises characterized by large declines in deposits?The authors find that contemporary banking crises are not accompanied by declines in aggregate bank deposits, and credit does not fall relative to output, but the growth of both deposits and credit does slow down substantially. Output recovery begins the second year after the crisis and is not led by a resumption of credit growth. Instead, banks (including the stronger banks) reallocate their asset portfolio away from loans.This suggests that protecting deposits during a banking crisis may not be enough to protect bank credit, as lack of usable collateral and poor borrower creditworthiness discourage banks from lending. However, protecting bank credit may not be a priority right after a crisis, as the real economy can rebound without it, at least while there is substantial underused capacity.This paper - a joint product of Finance, Development Research Group, and the Research Department, International Monetary Fund - is part of a larger effort to study banking crises. The authors may be contacted at [email protected], [email protected], or [email protected].
Download or read book Cross Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress A Survey written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-05-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in present-day economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies-the signals approach and the multivariate probability model-and their application to studying the determinants of banking crises. The use of these models to provide early warnings for crises is also reviewed, as are studies of the economic effects of banking crises and of the policies to forestall them. The paper concludes by identifying directions for future research.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Banking Crises written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-06-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The main macroeconomic indicators were of limited value in predicting the Asian crises; the best warning signs were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be more associated with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Download or read book Did Information Intermediaries See the Warning Signals of the Banking Crisis from Leading Indicators in Banks Financial Statements written by Hemang Desai and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we address two important questions that emerged in the aftermath of the recent banking crisis. First, did the financial statements of the bank holding companies provide an early warning of their impending distress? Second, whether the actions of four key financial intermediaries (short sellers, equity analysts, Standard Poor's credit ratings and auditors) were sensitive to the information in the banks' financial statements about their increasing risk and their approaching distress? We find a significant cross-sectional association between the banks' 2006 4Q financials and bank failures over 2008-2010 suggesting that the financial statements reflected at least some of the increased risk of bank distress in advance. The mean abnormal short interest in our sample of banks spikes from 0.66% in March 2005 to 2.4% in March 2007. This increase in short interest is also accompanied by a sharp increase over time in the cross-sectional association between short interest and leading financial statement indicators. In contrast, we observe neither a meaningful change in analysts' recommendations, Standard and Poor's credit ratings and audit fees nor an increased sensitivity of these actions to financial indicators of bank distress over this time period. Overall, our results suggest that actions of short sellers likely provided an early warning of banks' upcoming distress prior to 2008 crisis.
Download or read book A New Approach to Early Warning Systems for Small European Banks written by Michael Bräuninger and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes a machine learning technique to timely identify cases of individual bank financial distress. Our work represents the first attempt in the literature to develop an early warning system specifically for small European banks. We employ a machine learning technique, and build a decision tree model using a dataset of official supervisory reporting, complemented with qualitative banking sector and macroeconomic variables. We propose a new and wider definition of financial distress, in order to capture bank distress cases at an earlier stage with respect to the existing literature on bank failures; by doing so, given the rarity of bank defaults in Europe we significantly increase the number of events on which to estimate the model, thus increasing the model precision; in this way we identify bank crises at an earlier stage with respect to the usual default definition, therefore leaving a time window for supervisory intervention. The Quinlan C5.0 algorithm we use to estimate the model also allows us to adopt a conservative approach to misclassification: as we deal with bank distress cases, we consider missing a distress event twice as costly as raising a false ag. Our final model comprises 12 variables in 19 nodes, and outperforms a logit model estimation, which we use to benchmark our analysis; validation and back testing also suggest that the good performance of our model is relatively stable and robust.
