Download or read book Early Indicators of Currency Crises written by Magdalena Tomczyńska and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Early Indicators of Currency Crises Review of Some Literature written by Magdalena Tomczynska and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises have become relatively frequent events since the beginning of the 1980s. They have taken three main forms: currency crises, banking crises, or both - so called twin crises. As the number of developed economies, developing countries, and economies in transition experienced severe financial crashes researchers are trying to propose a framework for systemic analyses. That is why attempts to advance the understanding of features leading to the outbreak of financial crisis as well as the reasons of vulnerability have become more and more important. In recent years a number of efforts have been undertaken to identify variables that act as early warning signals for crises. The purpose of this paper is to provide some perspective on the issue of early warning signals of vulnerability to currency crises. In particular, it is aimed at presenting and highlighting the main findings of theoretical literature in this area. An effective warning system should consider a broad variety of indicators, as currency crises seem to be usually associated with multiple economic and sometimes political problems. Indicators that have proven to be particularly useful in anticipating crises and received empirical support include the development of international reserves, real exchange rate, domestic credit, credit to the public sector, domestic inflation, and structure and financing of public debt. Other indicators that have found support are trade balance, export performance, money growth, M2/international reserves ratio, foreign interest rates, real GDP growth, and fiscal deficit. Many of the proposed leading indicators have been able to predict particular crises, however, only few have showed ability to do so consistently. Generally, economic models can be said to be more successful in predicting crises that erupt because of weak fundamentals, which make country vulnerable to adverse shocks. They are less likely in anticipating crises due to selffulfilling expectations or pure contagion effects. So far economists are only able to identify situations in which an economy could face the risk of a financial crisis. This is most because of the well-known fact that if we knew the crisis would have already occurred. Warning indicators seem to be unlikely to predict crises in precise way but their analyses can provide extended information about impending problems what enables to take preventive measures.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Graciela Kaminsky and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning quot;signalquot; that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Carmen Reinhart and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Currency and Banking Crises written by Graciela Kaminsky and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and thus they were unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises in other regions, occur when the economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, which are evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Indicators of Currency Crisis written by Małgorzata B. Jakubiak and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Currency and Banking Crises written by Graciela L. Kaminsky and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Stefan Jansen and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims at identifying key empirical regularities characterizing the onset of a currency crisis that might be suitable for early warning purposes and proceeds by providing analysis and empirical tests of economic and financial variables both in-sample and out-of-sample in order to assess their performance as leading indicators of a speculative attack. Two distinct methodologies are compared and implications for the theory of currency crises and economic policies to their prevention will be investigated in the process.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Country Risk and Currency Crises the Asian Experience written by Marcelle Chauvet and published by . This book was released on 2008-04 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article aims to construct an early warning system for international currency crises using financial variables reflecting investors¿ expectations & banking distress, which are highly sensitive to changes in the economic environment. The authors use a dynamic factor model that switches between two regimes -- representing periods of relative calmness & periods prone to currency crises -- to construct leading indicators of country risk & currency crises. The method is applied to evaluate the model¿s in-sample & out-of-sample performance in anticipating currency crises in the last two decades in Thailand, Indonesia, & Korea. The model successfully produces early signals of these crises, particularly the most severe one, which occurred in 1997. Illus.
Download or read book Currencies and Crises written by Paul Krugman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1995-02-23 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new collection revolves around Krugman's work on international monetary economics from the late 1970s to the present in an effort to make sense of a turbulent period that "involved one surprise after another, most of them unpleasant." Paul Krugman's first collection of essays, Rethinking International Trade, mounted a spirited assault on established trade theory and proposed an alternative approach to account for increasing returns and imperfect competition. Less theoretical and more embedded in real-world experience, this new collection revolves around Krugman's work on international monetary economics from the late 1970s to the present in an effort to make sense of a turbulent period that "involved one surprise after another, most of them unpleasant." The eleven essays cover such key areas as the role of exchange rates in balance-of-payments adjustment policy, the role of speculation in the functioning of exchange rate regimes, Third World debt, and the construction of an international monetary system. They are unified by the same basic methodology and style the construction of a small theoretical model in order to simplify or clarify a puzzling or difficult world monetary problem.
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Causes and Solutions for Currency Crises Historical Overview and Explanatory Models written by James Oppong-Gyebi and published by . This book was released on 2023-04-05 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2021 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 2.3, University of Siegen (Faculty 3: School of Economic Discipline), language: English, abstract: In recent years, several currency crises were recorded. These include the currency crises of Latin America (1995), East Asia (1997), Russia (1998), Zimbabwe (2000), Turkey (2018), and currently Lebanon and Venezuela. Why have some currencies failed or crashed throughout history? And are there models/theories to explain why these crises occur? This paper, therefore, seeks to primarily discuss the general and some possible reasons behind the occurrence of currency crises. The paper also looks at the possible outcomes and effects of currency crises as well as measures that can be taken to address them. It discusses further some known examples of currency crises and the features they have in common. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2: Definition of currency crises; Section 3: The general theories of currency crises; Section 4: Examples of some historic currency crises; Section 5: Possible or potential causes of currency crises; Section 6: The outcomes and costs of currency crises; Section 7: Early warning systems and indicators of a currency crisis; Section 8: Measures to mitigate or prevent a currency crisis; and Section 9: Conclusion.
Download or read book Financial Cycles Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises written by Ms. Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-29 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.