Download or read book Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Download or read book The Business Cycle Theories and Evidence written by M.T. Belongia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations. Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where the conference's participants view our current understanding to be, these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be explained by any theory that purports to capture the business cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished empirically. The conference then examined the implications for policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the cycle.

Download or read book How Long Do Housing Cycles Last a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries written by Mr.Philippe Bracke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.

Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

Download or read book Galaxy Distances and Deviations from Universal Expansion written by Barry F. Madore and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It was a general feeling among those who attended the NATO / ARW meeting on the Galaxy Distances and Deviations from Universal Expansion, that during the week in Hawaii a milestone had been passed in work on the distance scale. While not until the last minute did most of the participants know who else would be attending, no one was displeased with the showing. As it turned out, scarcely a single active worker in the field of the distance scale missed the event. Few knew all of the outstanding work that was to be revealed, and/or the long-term programs that were to be encapsulated in the first few days. Areas of general agreement were pinpointed with candid speed, and most of the discussion moved on quickly to new data, and areas deserving special new attention. As quickly as one project was reported as being brought successfully to a close, a different group would report on new discoveries with new directions to go. New data, new phenomena; but the sentiment was that we were building on a much safer foundation, even if the Universe was unfolding in a much more complex and unexpected way than was previously anticipated. In editing these proceedings a decision was made well in advance of the Meet ing that no attempt would made to record the discussion. This was done for many reasons.

Download or read book The Long Game written by Rush Doshi and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.

Download or read book Fundamental Astronomy written by Hannu Karttunen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fundamental Astronomy is a well-balanced, comprehensive introduction to classical and modern astronomy. While emphasizing both the astronomical concepts and the underlying physical principles, the text provides a sound basis for more profound studies in the astronomical sciences. This is the fifth edition of the successful undergraduate textbook and reference work. It has been extensively modernized and extended in the parts dealing with extragalactic astronomy and cosmology. You will also find augmented sections on the solar system and extrasolar planets as well as a new chapter on astrobiology. Long considered a standard text for physical science majors, Fundamental Astronomy is also an excellent reference work for dedicated amateur astronomers.

Download or read book Expansion of Physics through Nanoscience written by Wolfram Schommers and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In contrast to other publications this work discusses Nanoscience strictly at the ultimate level where the properties of atomic matter emerge. The renowned author presents an interdisciplinary approach leading to the forefront of research of quantum-theoretical aspects of time, selforganizing nanoprocesses, brain functions, the matter-mind problem, behaviour research and philosophical questions.

Download or read book Quantum Mechanics written by Richard Robinett and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-04-13 with total page 722 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: `Quantum Mechanics' is a comprehensive introduction to quantum mechanics for advanced undergraduate students in physics. It provides the reader with a strong conceptual background in the subject, extensive experience with the necessary mathematical background, as well as numerous visualizations of quantum concepts and phenomena.

Download or read book The Large N Expansion In Quantum Field Theory And Statistical Physics written by Edouard Brezin and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1993-08-31 with total page 1149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains an edited comprehensive collection of reprints on the subject of the large N limit as applied to a wide spectrum of problems in quantum field theory and statistical mechanics. The topics include (1) Spin Systems; (2) Large N Limit of Gauge Theories; (3) Two-Dimensional QCD; (4) Exact Results on Planar Perturbation Series and the Nature of the 1/N Series; (5) Schwinger-Dyson Equations Approach; (6) QCD Phenomenological Lagrangians and the Large N Limit; (7) Other Approaches to Large N: Eguchi-Kawai Model, Collective Fields and Numerical Methods; (8) Matrix Models; (9) Two-Dimensional Gravity and String Theory.

Download or read book Ultra Wideband Short Pulse Electromagnetics 5 written by Paul D. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-08 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fifth Conference on Ultra-Wideband Short-Pulse Electromagnetics was held in Scotland from 30 May to 2 June 2000 at the Edinburgh International Conference Centre. It formed part of the EUROEM 2000 International Conference under the chairmanship of David Parkes (DERA, Malvern) and Paul Smith (University of Dundee). It continued the series of international conferences that were held first at the Polytechnic University, Brooklyn, New York in 1992 and 1994, then in Albuquerque, New Mexico in 1996 (as part of AMEREM ’96) and more recently in Tel-Aviv, Israel in 1998 (as part of EUROEM ’98). The purpose of these meetings is to focus on advanced technologies for the generation, radiation and detection of ultra-wideband short pulse signals, taking into account their propagation, scattering from and coupling to targets of interest; to report on developments in supporting mathematical and numerical methods; and to describe current and potential future applications of the technology.

Download or read book Business Fluctuations and Cycles written by T. Nagakawa and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2008 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations of economic activity about its long term growth trend. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), alternating with periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. One of the government's main roles is to smooth out the business cycle and reduce its fluctuations. To call those alternances 'cycles' is rather misleading as they don't tend to repeat at fairly regular time intervals. Most observers find that their lengths (from peak to peak, or from trough to trough) vary, so that cycles are not mechanical in their regularity. Since no two cycles are alike in their details, some economists dispute the existence of cycles and use the word 'fluctuations' (or the like) instead. Others see enough similarities between cycles that the cycle is a valid basis of studying the state of the economy. A key question is whether or not there are similar mechanisms that generate recessions and/or booms that exist in capitalist economies so that the dynamics that appear as a cycle will be seen again and again. This new book presents leading-edge research in this field.

Download or read book The Expansion of Physical Quantities in Terms of the Irreducible Representations of the Scale Euclidean Group and Applications to the Construction of Scale invariant Correlation Functions written by H. E. Moses and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The irreducible representations of the scale-Euclidean group in three dimensions are introduced, and the general tensor is expanded in terms of these representations. The cases of zero-rank tensor (scalar), rank-1 tensor (vector), and rank-2 tensor, are studied in detail. The expansion is shown to be a generalization of the Helmholtz expansion of a vector into rotational and irrotational parts. As in Part 1 of the work (Concepts: One-Dimensional Problems), the correlations that are introduced are invariant under changes of frames of reference. Correlations are set up between tensors of different ranks and dimensions. A correlation that measures a degree of isotropy is defined.

Download or read book Statistical Condensed Matter Physics written by Carlo Di Castro and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-08-27 with total page 549 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An innovative and modular textbook combining established classical topics in statistical mechanics with the latest developments in condensed matter physics.

Download or read book Hyperspherical Harmonics Expansion Techniques written by Tapan Kumar Das and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-26 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides a generalized theoretical technique for solving the fewbody Schrödinger equation. Straight forward approaches to solve it in terms of position vectors of constituent particles and using standard mathematical techniques become too cumbersome and inconvenient when the system contains more than two particles. The introduction of Jacobi vectors, hyperspherical variables and hyperspherical harmonics as an expansion basis is an elegant way to tackle systematically the problem of an increasing number of interacting particles. Analytic expressions for hyperspherical harmonics, appropriate symmetrisation of the wave function under exchange of identical particles and calculation of matrix elements of the interaction have been presented. Applications of this technique to various problems of physics have been discussed. In spite of straight forward generalization of the mathematical tools for increasing number of particles, the method becomes computationally difficult for more than a few particles. Hence various approximation methods have also been discussed. Chapters on the potential harmonics and its application to Bose-Einstein condensates (BEC) have been included to tackle dilute system of a large number of particles. A chapter on special numerical algorithms has also been provided. This monograph is a reference material for theoretical research in the few-body problems for research workers starting from advanced graduate level students to senior scientists.

Download or read book Interacting Electrons written by Richard M. Martin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-30 with total page 843 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book sets out modern methods of computing properties of materials, including essential theoretical background, computational approaches, practical guidelines and instructive applications.