Download or read book Downstream Impacts Due to the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analysis of the eddy kinetic energy budget for four cases of extratropical transition (ET) with North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) is conducted. The cases compare varying ET and midlatitude flow characteristics. Each case was examined to determine the impacts of eddy kinetic energy generation and/or transfer on downstream development in the midlatitude circulation. Typhoon Tokage (October 2004) was a large TC that moved into a high-amplitude midlatitude circulation. Energetics analysis revealed that the ET of Tokage influenced the development of a deep trough over the central North Pacific before Tokage moved poleward and weakened transfer. Typhoon Banyan (July 2005) was a mid-summer case that influenced downstream development ultimately over the Aleutian Islands. Typhoon Guchol (August 2005) was a small TC that was dominated by midlatitude flow. However, the merger of Guchol with a midlatitude trough enabled development downstream of a separate trough. Typhoon Nabi was an intense TC that injected significant EKE into the midlatitude circulation during ET. Through downstream development, Nabi changed a zonal pattern over the North Pacific into an amplified pattern. These cases indicate that the ET process over the western North Pacific impacts the midlatitude circulation across the entire North Pacific basin.
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems written by Julia Henriette Keller and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study examines the predictability during the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), a multimodel ensemble prediction system (EPS). It is shown that TIGGE exhibits more possible development scenarios than a single EPS. By analysing the eddy kinetic energy budget of forecast scenarios for two ET cases, extracted from an EPS, the impact of the transitioning tropical cyclones on the midlatitude flow is studied in detail.
Download or read book The Downstream Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones written by Heather M. Archambault and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extratropical Transition of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones written by Peter M. Klein and published by . This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extratropical transition (ET) of a tropical cyclone (TC) often results in a mid-latitude storm that threatens maritime and coastal interests. Cases of ET between 1 July through 31 October during 1994-1996 are reviewed using Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and hourly geostationary satellite imagery. Current conceptual models are found to be inadequate to explain the physical processes in ET. ET is redefined to have two stages: transformation, where the TC is transformed from a warm-core vortex into a baroclinic, cold-core extratropical cyclone, and re- intensification, where the transformed TC either deepens or dissipates, depending on the existence of upper4ropospheric support for extratropical cyclogenesis. ET is further defined in terms of two characteristic mid-latitude synoptic patterns: meridional, in which the cyclones have meridional tracks and tend to re-intensify less vigorously than zonal, which have zonal tracks and may deepen explosively. Review of NOGAPS 5OO-mb anomaly correlation scores in 1996 demonstrated that ET may be associated with significant NOGAPS errors. Sea-level pressure forecasts during ET events involving a merger tend to be too deep. In ET cases of rapidly deepening storms, NOGAPS tends to overforecast their intensity during transformation, and then underforecast during re- intensification. Rules of thumb are provided to assist forecasters in improving predictions of the track and intensity of storms undergoing ET.
Download or read book Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impact of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since an extratropical transition (ET) of a decaying tropical cyclone (TC) often results in a fast-moving, rapidly developing extratropical cyclone and amplification of synoptic-scale systems far downstream, proper forecasting of ET events is critical to forecast accuracy over large ocean regions. Past studies have linked forecast accuracy to the phasing of a decaying TC with favorable midlatitudes conditions. Because ET events are sensitive to the analyzed initial conditions, this phasing is examined using 11 member ensemble predictions available four times daily from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which were combined into a single 44 member ensemble based on a common forecast verification time. Recurring ET patterns within the 44 member ensemble were objectively identified using a combination of EOF and cluster analysis. Ensemble spread first appears near the point where the TC moves into the midlatitudes and then propagates downstream. Although ensemble spread in the forecast fields was large at extended forecast intervals, the ensemble spread, and the number of ET patterns identified in successive EPS predictions, decreased as the ET process became better defined. Within 48 hours of the ET event, the ensemble prediction system properly identified the ET pattern with a minimum ensemble spread. Similar to Klein et al. (2002), the shifts in the initial position of the TC and the subsequent dynamical coupling can explain differences between weak and strong ET reintensifications.
Download or read book Quantification of the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition for Typhoon Jangmi and Other Case Studies written by Grams, Christian Michael Warnfrid and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of extratropical transition on the midlatitude flow is quantified based on potential vorticity inversion. The detailed study of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) reveals the diabatically enhanced net transport of low-PV air to the tropopause as the key physical process determining the direct impact of ET. Relocation experiments and further case studies show the crucial role of the relative position of the TC and the midlatitude flow for the downstream impact of ET and the reduced predictability.
Download or read book The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of Its Impact on the Downstream Flow written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this project we investigated the basic mechanisms that determine the predictability of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) and of their impact on the downstream flow. The analysis of ensemble forecasts for five ET cases showed that uncertainty is associated with the location and amplitude of a characteristic upper-level trough-ridge-trough pattern consisting of the trough that interacts with the tropical cyclone, a ridge directly downstream and a second trough downstream of the ridge. Experiments for Typhoon Tokage (2004) with the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts showed that targeted perturbations led to increased spread around and shortly after ET time whereas the spread due to stochastic physics increased at a later time as the influence of the targeted perturbations decreased. Idealized modelling combined with potential vorticity inversion was used to quantify the mechanisms responsible for this variability. Furthermore, dropsonde data in the vicinity of tropical cyclones were shown to reduce the medium-range forecast error for the downstream flow.
Download or read book Christus und die Samariterin written by and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dynamics and Predictability of Large Scale High Impact Weather and Climate Events written by Jianping Li and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-03-24 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the dynamical processes between high-impact weather and climate events, and between atmospheric and ocean phenomena.
Download or read book Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change in TCS 08 and TCS 08 Field Experiment Support written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The long-term goal of this project is to develop a better understanding of mesoscale and synoptic-scale processes associated with the entire life cycle of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The inability to correctly identify tropical cyclone formation over the period of 24-48 hours poses a threat to shore and afloat assets across the western North Pacific. Furthermore, once a tropical cyclone has formed, the predictability of structure changes during intensification of the cyclone is very low, which is due to complex physical processes that vary over a wide range of space and time scales. Periods of reduced predictability occur throughout the tropical cyclone life cycle, which includes the decaying stage. Because decaying tropical cyclones often transition to a fast-moving and rapidly-developing extratropical cyclone that may contain gale-, storm-, or hurricane-force winds, there is a need to improve understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. The structural evolution of the transition from a tropical to extratropical circulation involves rapid changes to the wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns that potentially impact maritime and shore-based facilities. The research being conducted on the comprehensive data sets gathered during the TCS-08 field program will result in increased accuracy associated with the prediction of tropical cyclone formation, intensification, and structural changes.
Download or read book The Remote Impacts of a Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone written by Craig E. Jakus and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The short term teleconnections arising from an individual tropical cyclone in tne western Pacific (typhoon Seth, October 1994) were examined using an operational global data assimilation system and numerical weather prediction model. During the data assimilation, the model's initial conditions were modified using a tropical cyclone bogusing procedure that either maintained or eliminated the individual storm. These different initial conditions were used in six extended-range forecasts of about 3.5 weeks duration. Three of these forecasts simulated the atmosphere with tne tropical cyclone and three without the storm. The ensemble average differences between the forecasts with the storm and those without it were used to infer the global teleconnection response to the tropical cyclone. This response was dominated by a strong and persistent Rossby wave train that extended from east Asia across the North Pacific into North America. This wave train was initiated when an anticyclonic circulation formed near Japan as the tropical cyclone approached the east Asian jet. The anticyclone formation was primarily the result of two factors: (1) vortex stretching; and (2) absolute vorticity advection as divergent outflow from the tropical cyclone crossed the large absolute vorticity gradient of the east Asian jet. The wave response was quasi-stationary. However, the basic wave train (i.e., the teleconnection pattern) developed within a week due to a relatively rapid eastward propagation of wave energy across the North Pacific and North America. In regions of strong jet flow, this propagation tended to parallel the flow while in regions of weaker flow, the propagation had stronger poleward or equatorward components. The wave train intensified well after the tropical cyclone and the initial wave formation process had dissipated.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone and Mid Latitude Characteristics and Physical Mechanisms Contributing to Extratropical Transition in the Western North Pacific written by Peter M. Klein and published by . This book was released on 2000-12-01 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific examines 30 cases during 1 June through 31 October 1994-98 using Navy analyses, plus geostationary satellite visible, infrared, water vapor, and microwave imagery. Based on the similarity of all 30 ET cases in satellite imagery, a three-dimensional conceptual model of the transformation stage of ET is proposed to describe how these ET cases evolve into an incipient, baroclinic cyclone. A climatology of ET during the period studied is presented, and three levels of re-intensification (little, moderate, and deep) are defined based on storm intensity at the end of ET. The re- intensification stage in nine cases is studied via Navy Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) control forecasts, simulations with the initial TC vortex removed, and simulations in which the initial TC vortex is displaced. These COAMPS simulations demonstrate that deep or moderate re- intensification depends on phasing of the poleward translating TC remnants with a critical region in which cyclogenesis is favored in the mid-latitude circulation. The mid-latitude circulation and TC contributions to the re- intensification stage are identified via superposition with the critical region and modification of its location and diagnostic values, respectively, and the combination of these contributions determines the final storm intensity at the end of ET.
Download or read book Downstream Response to Explosive Extratropical Cyclone Intensification Over the North Pacific written by Kevin Michael Lupo and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make God's Word your everyday traveling companion. Thin and lightweight, Thomas Nelson's KJV Compact UltraSlim™ Bible boasts a complete and easy-to-read Bible that is ready to go when you are! A Bible you can be comfortable taking with you every day and everywhere you go, the Compact UltraSlim Bible is thin enough to tuck into your purse, briefcase, backpack, or glove compartment, yet large enough for easy readability. The Compact UltraSlim Bible is the perfect gift and ideal companion for today's Christian on the move. Features include: Presentation page Self-pronouncing text Words of Jesus in red Concordance Full-color maps Type size: 6 Part of the CLASSIC SERIES line of Thomas Nelson Bibles Compact UltraSlim Bibles sold to date: More than 135,000 The King James Version-The most successful Bible translation in history with billions of copies published Thomas Nelson Bibles is giving back through the God's Word in Action program. Donating a portion of profits to World Vision, we are helping to eradicate poverty and preventable deaths among children. Learn more and discover what you can do at www.seegodswordinaction.com.
Download or read book The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones written by Melanie Bieli and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The model, a logistic regression with elastic net regularization, was developed with a focus on predictive performance as well as physical interpretability and thus resides at the interface between machine learning and traditional statistics. It uses eight predictors that characterize the storm and its environment, the most important ones being latitude and sea surface temperature. The model is shown to have skill in forecasting ET at lead times up to two days, and it can predict the phase evolution of storms that undergo ET as well as of storms that remain tropical throughout their lifetimes. When used as an instantaneous diagnostic of a storm's tropical/extratropical status, the model performs about as well as the CPS in the western North Pacific and better than the CPS in the North Atlantic, and it predicts the timings of the transitions better than the CPS in both basins. The model can be integrated into statistical tropical cyclone risk models, or may be applied to provide baseline guidance for operational forecasts.
Download or read book Comparison of a Conceptual Model and Objective Indicators of Extratropical Transition in the Western North Pacific written by Gregory D. Fox and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the results of objective indicators based on Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model analyses. The ultimate goal is to find a way to reduce the negative impact of incorrect TC forecasting by providing tools which are more objective in defining stages of ET. This work discusses the birth, growth, and death of TCs by describing what energy sources are necessary for their growth and dissipation. Recent studies provide a conceptual model of ET with definitions of two stages and ways to use satellite analysis to identify them (Klein et al. 2000). While this conceptual model was being analyzed with data from the western North Pacific Ocean, TCs were also being analyzed using data from the Atlantic Ocean (Hart and Evans 2001). The research from the Atlantic led to the exploitation of objective indicators in a hodograph-like display (Evans and Hart 2003).
