Download or read book Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell Side Analysts Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy written by Beverly R. Walther and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.

Download or read book Is Cognitive Bias Really Present in Analyst Forecasts The Role of Investor Sentiment written by Pilar Corredor and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.

Download or read book Investor Sentiment and Management Earnings Forecast Bias written by Helen Hurwitz and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers' annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers' annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low-sentiment periods than during normal-sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low-sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment-related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relation between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.

Download or read book Sophisticated and Unsophisticated Investors Reactions to Analysts Forecast Revisions Conditional on Factors that are Associated with Forecast Accuracy written by Sarah E. Bonner and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study we examine differences between sophisticated and unsophisticated investors' incorporation of information about the accuracy of sell-side analysts' revisions of quarterly earnings forecasts. Our results indicate that sophisticated investors' weights on information cues associated with accuracy more closely match the weights derived from environmental models of forecast accuracy. Further, our findings suggest that sophisticated investors' strategies better reflect the costs and benefits of using accuracy cues that provide statistically significant, but economically small, explanatory power for forecast accuracy. Our evidence is consistent with sophisticated investors having greater knowledge about the factors that are related to forecast accuracy and exhibiting more adaptive cue-weighting strategies.

Download or read book Time Variation in Analyst Optimism written by Hong Qian and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many studies have documented that analyst forecasts are overly-optimistic on average. Using quarterly observations from 1984 to 2002, this paper shows that forecasts exhibit optimism for most of the quarters under examination, but the level of optimism varies substantially over time. More importantly, after correcting the measurement problem caused by price, I do not find optimism greatly diminished during most of the 1990s. However, consistent with previous findings, the period of 1999-2000 displays pessimistic forecasts, especially for large firms and growth firms. The macroeconomic factor does not have significant impact on analyst optimism. In contrast, the time-varying investor sentiments measured by two Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) put-call ratios, and the cross-sectional skewness in the forecast errors, play an important role in explaining the time variation in analyst optimism. Finally, analysts track institutional investor sentiment more closely, except for small firms.

Download or read book Issues in Accounting Administration and Corporate Governance 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Accounting, Administration, and Corporate Governance: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Logistics. The editors have built Issues in Accounting, Administration, and Corporate Governance: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Logistics in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Accounting, Administration, and Corporate Governance: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Download or read book The Effect of Trading Volume on Analysts Forecast Bias written by Anne Beyer and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study models the interaction between a sell-side analyst and risk-averse investors. It derives an analyst's optimal earnings forecast and investors' optimal trading decisions in a setting where the analyst's payoff depends on the trading volume the forecast generates as well as on the forecast error. In the fully separating equilibrium, we find that the analyst biases the forecast upward (downward) if his private signal reveals relatively good (bad) news.The model predicts that: (i) the analyst biases the forecast upward more often than downward and the forecast is on average optimistic; (ii) the magnitude of the analyst's bias is increasing in the per share benefit from trading volume he receives; and (iii) the analyst's expected squared forecast error may increase in the precision of his private information. Finally, we characterize the circumstances under which the (rational) analyst acts as if he overweights or underweights his private information.

Download or read book The Informational Role of Sell side Analysts Forecast Horizon written by Xuan Wang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the informational role of sell-side analysts' change in forecasting horizon. I find that portfolios formed by buying stocks with large increase in analyst horizon and shorting stocks with large decrease in analyst horizon generate superior future return. Horizon change has information incremental to analyst earnings forecast and recommendation revisions, as well as firm fundamentals. Large increase in horizon mainly drives the result. I find that analysts who contribute to strong horizon increase are associated with higher forecast accuracy. This increase is likely associated with the career concerns of inexperienced analysts. The return predictability associated with analyst forecast horizon change exists in the information environment of high liquidity and low volatility, at the times when analyst forecasts are the most accurate. Moreover, analyst forecast horizon is partially related to analysts' profitability prediction and firm risk assessment, although the horizon change, the component predictable by firm fundamentals notwithstanding, is still able to predict return in the short-run. Overall, the findings reported in this dissertation support the view that sell-side analysts are important rational-information providers in the financial industry.

Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

Download or read book Financial Analysts and Information Processing on Financial Markets written by Jan-Philipp Matthewes and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2015-01-28 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts play an ambivalent role on financial markets: On the one hand investors and the media frequently follow their advice, on the other hand they are regularly discredited when their forecasts or recommendations prove to be erroneous. This cumulative thesis explores the informational content of financial analysts’ forecasts for investors by addressing three specific topics: Consensus size as a rudimentary investment signal, the association of analysts’ target prices with business sentiment, and the consistency of analysts’ different investment signals in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, the thesis provides additional evidence that investors can profit from analysts’ forecasts and recommendations. However, it is also shown that investors need to be very selective about which signal to rely on and in which context to use these because analysts’ investment signals can also be heavily biased and erroneous. About the author: Jan-Philipp Matthewes studied ‘Economics’ at the University of Cologne, Germany, and holds a Dean’s Award from the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences. His research focus on financial analysts evolved while working in equity research at a leading German bank. The PhD-thesis was supervised by Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier, Finance and Accounting, at the University of Fribourg, Switzerland. Since 2013 Jan-Philipp Matthewes is the managing director of the boutique private equity firm ‘Matthewes Capital Invest GmbH’.

Download or read book Bias in European Analysts Earnings Forecasts written by Stan Beckers and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting company earnings is a difficult and hazardous task. In an efficient market where analysts learn from past mistakes, there should be no persistent and systematic biases in consensus earnings accuracy. Previous research has already established how some (single) individual-company characteristics systematically influence forecast accuracy. So far, however, the effect on consensus earnings biases of a company's sector and country affiliation combined with a range of other fundamental characteristics has remained largely unexplored. Using data for 1993-2002, this article disentangles and quantifies for a broad universe of European stocks how the number of analysts following a stock, the dispersion of their forecasts, the volatility of earnings, the sector and country classification of the covered company, and its market capitalization influence the accuracy of the consensus earnings forecast.

Download or read book Incentives Or Irrationality International Evidence from the Impact of Individualism on Analyst Forecast Bias written by Claudia Qi and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a unique dataset that identifies the locations of 19,832 financial analysts covering 21,885 firms from 49 countries during 1996-2013, we find that individualism of analysts' country of residence is negatively associated with their earnings forecast optimism and positively associated with their forecast accuracy. Using multiple proxies for economic incentives and cognitive biases, we find that individualism affects analyst forecast optimism and accuracy through the economic incentives that analysts face, rather than their cognitive biases (irrationality). Our results highlight the importance for regulators and investors to factor in culture values when battling against biased analyst research.

Download or read book Is There Safety in Numbers The Effects of Forecast Accuracy and Forecast Boldness on Financial Analysts Credibility with Investors written by Kathryn Kadous and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reports the results of an experiment that examines how analyst forecast accuracy (i.e., how close an analyst's forecast is to realized earnings) and forecast boldness (i.e. how far the analyst's forecast is from the consensus forecast) affect the analyst's perceived credibility and investors' willingness to rely on and purchase the analyst's future reports. We hypothesize and find that forecast boldness magnifies the effect of forecast accuracy on these variables. That is, analysts who provide accurate, bold forecasts experience more positive consequences than those who provide accurate, non-bold forecasts, and analysts who provide inaccurate, bold forecasts experience more negative consequences than those who provide inaccurate, non-bold forecasts. We also find that these effects are not symmetric - the negative consequences of being bold and inaccurate exceed positive consequences of being bold and accurate. Our results are not sensitive to the level of the analyst's prior reputation.

Download or read book Does Forecast Bias Affect Financial Analysts Market Influence written by Sami Keskek and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior studies find that analysts tend to bias their forecasts upward in poor information environments and downward in rich information environments, consistent with attempts to curry favor with management. We find that investors anticipate this behavior by reducing their response to upward forecasts in poor information environments and downward forecasts in rich information environments. Using Hugon and Muslu's measure of analyst conservatism as an ex ante indicator of individual analysts' forecast bias tendencies, we show that the stronger return response they find to conservative analysts' forecast revisions is restricted to poor information environments, where optimistic analyst bias is prevalent. Our results suggest that analysts pay a price in market influence when their forecasts reinforce analysts' typical forecast bias for the firm's information environment. Conversely, analysts whose forecasts conflict with the typical bias for the firm are rewarded with larger than average return responses.

Download or read book Analyst Forecast Momentum written by Paul J. Irvine and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A great number of academic papers evaluate the potential for incentive-driven bias in sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts. Yet bias does not necessarily invalidate a forecast, nor does it impinge on its relative quality. We find that analysts' forecasts are optimistic relative to recently introduced fundamental alternatives. However, analysts' forecasts have lower absolute deviation and the information in their earnings forecasts has predictive value for near-term stock returns. We propose the latter result as a previously unidentified form of earnings momentum. We find that this form of earnings momentum is even stronger for quarterly forecasts than annual forecasts, suggesting that analysts' have particularly strong incentives directed to forecasting quarterly earnings. Investing with optimistic analysts is a rational investment strategy, rather than a misguided one, when the investment horizon is less than one year.

Download or read book Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts written by Sarah E. Bonner and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects of analysts' celebrity on investor reaction to earnings forecast revisions. We measure celebrity as the quantity of media coverage analysts receive in sources included in the Dow Jones Interactive database, and find that media coverage is positively related to investor reaction to forecast revisions. The effect of celebrity on the reaction to forecast revisions remains significant after controlling for forecast performance variables examined in prior studies (ex post forecast accuracy, ex ante accuracy, award status, and other variables shown to be related to forecast accuracy). While these results are consistent with the familiarity of the analyst's name affecting the market reaction, we cannot rule out that our measure of celebrity is correlated with error in the performance measures we examine and/or correlated with other unexamined dimensions of forecast performance. A content analysis of a random subsample of the media coverage of our sample analysts suggests that our findings likely are not due to the increased availability of forecast revisions. Finally, an investigation of the excess returns around the quarterly earnings announcement date suggests that market participants react too strongly to forecast revisions issued by analysts with high levels of media coverage. Taken together, these findings suggest that an analyst's level of media coverage can affect the initial market reaction to his forecast revisions.

Download or read book The Role of Analysts Forecasts in the Momentum Effect written by Rand Kwong Yew Low and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the extent to which sell-side equity analysts can facilitate market efficiency when there is increasing uncertainty about a stock's future value. The prevalence of the 52-week-high momentum anomaly, which can be largely attributed to information uncertainty, provides a setting for examining the value and timing of analysts' earnings forecast revisions. Our study finds that analysts can provide value-relevant signals to investors by picking up indicators of momentum. The ability to identify under or over-valued stocks suggests that analysts are important information intermediaries in the price-continuation momentum effect. However, we also observe pervasive asymmetric reaction to good and bad news throughout our study that is consistent with incentive-driven reporting and optimistic biases. Nevertheless, analysts' forecast revisions are informative at different stages to re-establish stock prices back to their fundamental valuation.