Download or read book Does Forecast Accuracy Matter to Security Analysts written by Michael B. Mikhail and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate if earnings forecast accuracy matters to security analysts by examining its association with analyst turnover. Controlling for firm- and time-period effects, forecast horizon, and industry forecasting experience, we find that an analyst is more likely to turn over if his forecast accuracy is lower than his peers. We find no association between an analyst's probability of turnover and his absolute forecast accuracy. We also investigate another observable measure of the analyst's performance, the profitability of his stock recommendations. There is no statistical relation between the absolute or relative profitability of an analyst's stock recommendations and his probability of turnover. We interpret our findings as indicating that forecast accuracy is important to analysts.
Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Download or read book Security Analysts Cash Flow Forecasts and Turnover written by Shail Pandit and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the relation between security analyst turnover and the relative accuracy of their annual earnings and cash flow forecasts. Controlling for self-selection in an analyst's decision to issue a cash flow forecast, we find that relatively more accurate earnings and cash flow forecasts reduce the probability of turnover. Relative earnings forecast accuracy decreases the probability of turnover more than relative cash flow forecast accuracy. We conduct two cross-sectional tests. We find that relative cash flow forecast accuracy is more important in the analyst's career outcome when cash flow forecasts are potentially more useful to investors. We find that relative cash flow forecast accuracy is more heavily weighted in the career outcome when the number of other analysts providing cash flow forecasts for the firm is larger. This finding is consistent with economic intuition that relative performance evaluation is more effective when larger groups of individuals are compared.
Download or read book Security Analyst Multi year Earnings Forecasts and the Capital Market written by Philip Brown and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Accuracy of Management and Security Analysts Forecasts written by Russell M. Barefield and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Multinationality Earnings Efficiency and Market Considerations written by Ahmed Riahi-Belkaoui and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2001-12-30 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of multinationality on the operations of a firm is clear and strong. Riahi-Belkaoui shows how it affects the known relationships between earnings, efficiency, disclosure, and market valuation by its role as a dependent, moderating, intervening antecedant or consequent variable. Its impact can be felt, for example, in relationships and phenomena such as the timeliness and the informativeness of earnings, the underreaction of securities analysts, post-earnings announcement drifts, and the level and quality of disclosure. An understanding of multinationality in the earnings-disclosure-efficiency-market valuation relationship can also be used by accountants and researchers in their daily activities, and by corporate executives in multinational organizational decision making. The result is a useful, probing exploration for academics and practitioners alike.
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Download or read book Bold Security Analysts Earnings Forecasts and Managers Information Flow written by Allen Huang and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the relation between security analysts' annual earnings forecast boldness ("bold analysts") and changes in the inferred flow of earnings-related information from managers of the forecasted firm to bold analysts. We find that unfavorably bold analysts experience an improvement in their subsequent relative forecast accuracy. Favorable forecasters, however, experience a decrease in subsequent relative forecast accuracy. Our forecast revisions tests suggest that the market recognizes the improvement in subsequent relative forecast accuracy for unfavorably bold analysts and places no additional weight on forecast revisions from favorably bold analysts.
Download or read book Forecast Selection When All Forecasts are Not Equally Recent written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little is known about which forecasts to select when all forecasts are not equally recent. This paper uses security analysts' annual earnings forecasts to examine this issue. The comparative predictive accuracy of the mean and three timely composites is examined, where the three timely composites are the most recent forecast, the average of the three most recent forecasts, and the 30-day average. The mean is shown to be less accurate than all three timely composites, and the 30-day average is shown to be the most accurate timely composite. The findings suggest that tradeoffs exist between recency and aggregation, and that these tradeoffs are related to firm size.
Download or read book Advances in Behavioral Finance written by Richard H. Thaler and published by Russell Sage Foundation. This book was released on 1993-08-19 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern financial markets offer the real world's best approximation to the idealized price auction market envisioned in economic theory. Nevertheless, as the increasingly exquisite and detailed financial data demonstrate, financial markets often fail to behave as they should if trading were truly dominated by the fully rational investors that populate financial theories. These markets anomalies have spawned a new approach to finance, one which as editor Richard Thaler puts it, "entertains the possibility that some agents in the economy behave less than fully rationally some of the time." Advances in Behavioral Finance collects together twenty-one recent articles that illustrate the power of this approach. These papers demonstrate how specific departures from fully rational decision making by individual market agents can provide explanations of otherwise puzzling market phenomena. To take several examples, Werner De Bondt and Thaler find an explanation for superior price performance of firms with poor recent earnings histories in the tendencies of investors to overreact to recent information. Richard Roll traces the negative effects of corporate takeovers on the stock prices of the acquiring firms to the overconfidence of managers, who fail to recognize the contributions of chance to their past successes. Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny show how the difficulty of establishing a reliable reputation for correctly assessing the value of long term capital projects can lead investment analysis, and hence corporate managers, to focus myopically on short term returns. As a testing ground for assessing the empirical accuracy of behavioral theories, the successful studies in this landmark collection reach beyond the world of finance to suggest, very powerfully, the importance of pursuing behavioral approaches to other areas of economic life. Advances in Behavioral Finance is a solid beachhead for behavioral work in the financial arena and a clear promise of wider application for behavioral economics in the future.
Download or read book Financial Analysts Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C O'Brien and published by Legare Street Press. This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a detailed analysis of the accuracy of forecasts made by individual analysts across nine different industries. It explores the factors that contribute to forecast accuracy and provides insights into how these factors can be used to improve forecasting performance. The author, Patricia C. O'Brien, is a well-respected economist and her research has significant implications for businesses and investors who rely on forecasts in their decision-making processes. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Download or read book A Research Agenda for Mergers and Acquisitions written by David R. King and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-05-02 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Research Agenda poses unique questions and perspectives on how to generate impactful research on mergers and acquisitions. Bringing together a mix of established and emerging scholars, it outlines how future research in the field can enable managers to make better decisions and improve mergers and acquisition success.
Download or read book The Analysis and Use of Financial Statements written by Gerald I. White and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-12-30 with total page 786 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accounting Standards (US and International) have been updated to reflect the latest pronouncements. * An increased international focus with more coverage of IASC and non-US GAAPs and more non-US examples.
Download or read book Analyst Forecasting Errors and Their Implications for Security Analysis written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dreman and Berry (1995) have offered a perspective on analyst earnings forecast errors and their implications for security analysis. Among other arguments, they contend that the errors are too large to be reliably used by investors, the forecasts are less accurate than forecasts by time-series models, the errors are increasing over time, the analysts' forecasts are too optimistic, and the investment community relies too heavily on analyst forecasts. An alternative perspective on these issues is offered. The argument is that analysts' forecast errors are within 3% of an appropriate benchmark (namely, stock price), that their forecasts generally are significantly more accurate than forecasts by naive or sophisticated time-series models, that analyst forecast errors have not been increasing over time, that analysts have been too pessimistic in recent years, and that the investment community, by placing too much weight on forecasts made by time-series models, relies too little on analysts' forecasts.
Download or read book Transnational Equity Analysis written by Mark Clatworthy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-04-08 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In-depth answers for professionals looking to accurately value foreign equities Transnational Equity Analysis is today's most thorough guide to its subject, examining and comparing the techniques used by top analysts and fund managers in the analysis of domestic and overseas equities. The book outlines the effects of international differences in disclosure and measurement rules and practices, examines how investors and analysts have discovered coping mechanisms for using fundamental analysis in an international context, and more. Mark Clatworthy (Cardiff, Wales) is a lecturer in the Cardiff Business School, UK.
