Download or read book Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises written by Ms.Camelia Minoiu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-24 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises. Our results indicate that increases in a country's financial interconnectedness and decreases in its neighbors' connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals.
Download or read book Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises written by Ms.Camelia Minoiu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-24 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises. Our results indicate that increases in a country's financial interconnectedness and decreases in its neighbors' connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals.
Download or read book Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis A Practical Framework written by Mrs.Jana Bricco and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.
Download or read book Friend or Foe Cross Border Linkages Contagious Banking Crises and Coordinated Macroprudential Policies written by Mr.Seung M Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-23 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with high trade and financial linkages raises the crisis probability. However, whether such “contagion effects” can operate to reduce crisis probabilities when highly linked countries execute macroprudential policies together has not been fully explored. A dataset documenting countries’ use of macroprudential tools suggests that a “coordinated” implementation of macroprudential policies across highly-linked countries can help to stem the risks of widespread banking crises, although this positive effect may take some time to materialize.
Download or read book Future Outlooks on Corporate Finance and Opportunities for Robust Economic Planning written by Kunjumuhammed, Siraj Kariyilaparambu and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2023-02-20 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corporate finance decisions showcase the responses of corporations to address challenges on both the demand and supply sides and the firm value chain. Corporate performance, strategies, and priorities have changed significantly since the pandemic. Understanding these changes and developing and implementing policy responses are crucial to success. Future Outlooks on Corporate Finance and Opportunities for Robust Economic Planning disseminates knowledge regarding corporate response during crises that contribute to a robust economic planning process. It examines the adjustments and strategic interventions that helped corporations mitigate challenges successfully. Covering topics such as corporate governance practices, global systemic risk interdependencies, and investment decisions, this premier reference source is an excellent resource for finance professionals, business executives and managers, financial officers, students and faculty of higher education, librarians, researchers, and academicians.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-15 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current report finds that, despite an improvement in economic prospects in some key advanced economies, new challenges to global financial stability have arisen. The global financial system is being buffeted by a series of changes, including lower oil prices and, in some cases, diverging growth patterns and monetary policies. Expectations for rising U.S. policy rates sparked a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while long term bond yields in many advanced economies have decreased—and have turned negative for almost a third of euro area sovereign bonds—on disinflation concerns and the prospect of continued monetary accommodation. Emerging markets are caught in these global cross currents, with some oil exporters and other facing new stability challenges, while others have gained more policy space as a result of lower fuel prices and reduced inflationary pressures. The report also examines changes in international banking since the global financial crisis and finds that these changes are likely to promote more stable bank lending in host countries. Finally, the report finds that the asset management industry needs to strengthen its oversight framework to address financial stability risks from incentive problems between end-investors and portfolio managers and the risk of runs due to liquidity mismatches.
Download or read book The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
Download or read book Listed Volatility and Variance Derivatives written by Yves Hilpisch and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leverage Python for expert-level volatility and variance derivative trading Listed Volatility and Variance Derivatives is a comprehensive treatment of all aspects of these increasingly popular derivatives products, and has the distinction of being both the first to cover European volatility and variance products provided by Eurex and the first to offer Python code for implementing comprehensive quantitative analyses of these financial products. For those who want to get started right away, the book is accompanied by a dedicated Web page and a Github repository that includes all the code from the book for easy replication and use, as well as a hosted version of all the code for immediate execution. Python is fast making inroads into financial modelling and derivatives analytics, and recent developments allow Python to be as fast as pure C++ or C while consisting generally of only 10% of the code lines associated with the compiled languages. This complete guide offers rare insight into the use of Python to undertake complex quantitative analyses of listed volatility and variance derivatives. Learn how to use Python for data and financial analysis, and reproduce stylised facts on volatility and variance markets Gain an understanding of the fundamental techniques of modelling volatility and variance and the model-free replication of variance Familiarise yourself with micro structure elements of the markets for listed volatility and variance derivatives Reproduce all results and graphics with IPython/Jupyter Notebooks and Python codes that accompany the book Listed Volatility and Variance Derivatives is the complete guide to Python-based quantitative analysis of these Eurex derivatives products.
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Stress Testing written by J. Doyne Farmer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-14 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress tests are the most innovative regulatory tool to prevent and fight financial crises. Their use has fundamentally changed the modeling of financial systems, financial risk management in the public and private sector, and the policies designed to prevent and mitigate financial crises. When financial crises hit, stress tests take center stage. Despite their centrality to public policy, the optimal design and use of stress tests remains highly contested. Written by an international team of leading thinkers from academia, the public sector, and the private sector, this handbook comprehensively surveys and evaluates the state of play and charts the innovations that will determine the path ahead. It is a comprehensive and interdisciplinary resource that bridges theory and practice and places financial stress testing in its wider context. This guide is essential reading for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers working on financial risk management and financial regulation.
Download or read book Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-17 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin March 2014 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-27 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Research Summaries in the March 2014 Research Bulletin focus on efficiency of health expenditure (Francesco Grigoli and Javier Kapsoli) and employment growth in European Union countries (Bas B. Bakker and Li Zeng). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financial Interconnectedness” (Co-Pierre Georg and Camelia Minoiu). The Research Bulletin also includes a listing of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Information on the IMF Economic Review—the research journal of the IMF—is also provided.
Download or read book Neoliberalism 2 0 Regulating and Financing Globalizing Markets written by L. Nijs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-26 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's increasingly globalized environment, many economic fundamentals need to be reconsidered in order to regain stability in the global marketplace. One such consideration is the failing dynamics of the international tax infrastructure. Neoliberalism 2.0 brings a 21st century assessment of the Pigovian taxes, considering a completely new calibration of the international tax systems, inspired by the historically developed Pigovian tax model. The book considers the impact neoliberalism had and will have on regulatory infrastructure, democracy in an era of globalization and reduced legitimation of the national state. The Pigovian model brings home the often forgotten relationship between taxation (as a part of the regulatory sphere), macro-economics, and the political-philosophical context in which law and economics emerge. The model also takes into account the phenomena of globalization and financialization and is tested using the financial sector as an example. This book addresses the many challenges a Pigovian shift would imply for the sovereign and its national economies. Neoliberalism 2.0 demonstrates the ability to design a paradigm-changing alternative to the current tax infrastructure, while taking into account a low economic growth environment of the future, the implications of globalization and the changing relationship between citizens and their state.
Download or read book IMF Lending in an Interconnected World written by Jean-Guillaume Poulain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-10 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.
Download or read book The Architecture of Collapse written by Mauro F. Guillén and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2015-10-22 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why are there so many crises in the world? Is it true that the global system is today riskier and more dangerous than in past decades? Do we have any tools at our disposal to bring these problems under control, to reduce the global system's proneness to instability? These are the tantalizing questions addressed in this book. Using a variety of demographic, economic, financial, social, and political indicators, the book demonstrates that the global system has indeed become an 'architecture of collapse' subject to a variety of shocks. An analysis of the global financial crisis of 2008, the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and China, and the European sovereign debt crisis illustrates how the complexity and tight coupling of system components creates a situation of precarious stability and periodic disruption. This state of affairs can only be improved by enhancing the shock-absorbing components of the system, especially the capacity of states and governments to act, and by containing the shock-diffusing mechanisms. In particular, those related to phenomena such as trade imbalances, portfolio investment, cross-border banking, population ageing, and income and wealth inequality.
Download or read book Green innovation and industrial ecosystem reconstruction in achieving environmental sustainability written by Huaping Sun and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-02-02 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis A Practical Framework written by Mrs.Jana Bricco and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country’s financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country’s financial system under various circumstances. We survey current approaches at the IMF for analyzing interconnectedness within the interbank, cross-sector and cross-border dimensions through an overview and examples of the data and methodologies used in the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Finally, this paper offers practical advice on how to interpret results and discusses potential financial stability policy recommendations that can be drawn from this type of in-depth analysis.
Download or read book Safe Havens Feedback Loops and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices written by Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-09 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We create a network of bilateral correlations of changes in sovereign bond yields and individual bank equity price changes since 2000. We extract some stylized facts from this network of asset price correlations and document the clear differences in asset price correlations between safe havens and non-safe havens: safe havens, as commonly defined, have higher sovereign-sovereign, bank-bank, and bank-sovereign correlations than nonsafe havens. In a simple shock propagation model, we illustrate how these higher correlations may turn safe havens into shock propagators. While we discuss safe havens as a group, we document how the US is in a category of its own, differing significantly from the other countries including Switzerland or Japan. Separately, we find that feedback loops amplify shocks, and those emanating from bank stress more than those emanating from sovereign stress.
