Download or read book Discrete Time Arbitrage Free Nelson Siegel Term Structure Model and Application written by Zhiwu Hong and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We characterize the discrete-time arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model, prove the uniqueness of the solution for model identification, make specification analysis on its canonical form, and detail the MCMC estimation method with a fast and reliable prior extraction step. Using the model, we examine how the yield curves of U.S. and China react to exchange rate policy shocks from China in its gradual reform to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Model decomposition reveals that, in U.S. yield responses, changes in risk premia for medium- to long-term yields dominate changes in yield expectation for short- to medium-term yields. The results are helpful to diagnosing market sentiment and exchange rate risk pricing as China further internationalizes its currency.
Download or read book The Discrete Time Framework of the Arbitrage Free Nelson Siegel Class of Term Structure Models written by Linlin Niu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We derive the discrete-time arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel class of term structure models with an exact solution and proof of uniqueness. We design a fast and reliable estimation procedure based on reduced-dimension optimization with multistep embedded regressions. After an analytical illustration, we also show empirically that arbitrage-free restrictions have a bounded advantage for in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast, compared to its reduced-form counterpart. However, the arbitrage-free model is a powerful tool for analysing risk premia associated with Level, Slope and Curvature factors. Our empirical results have interesting implications for both the US bond yield conundrum of 2004-05 and the recent financial crisis.
Download or read book A Practitioner s Guide to Discrete Time Yield Curve Modelling written by Ken Nyholm and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-07 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Element is intended for students and practitioners as a gentle and intuitive introduction to the field of discrete-time yield curve modelling. I strive to be as comprehensive as possible, while still adhering to the overall premise of putting a strong focus on practical applications. In addition to a thorough description of the Nelson-Siegel family of model, the Element contains a section on the intuitive relationship between P and Q measures, one on how the structure of a Nelson-Siegel model can be retained in the arbitrage-free framework, and a dedicated section that provides a detailed explanation for the Joslin, Singleton, and Zhu (2011) model.
Download or read book The Affine Arbitrage free Class of Nelson Siegel Term Structure Models written by Jens H. E. Christensen and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We derive the class of arbitrage-free affine dynamic term structure models that approximate the widely-used Nelson-Siegel yield-curve specification. Our theoretical analysis relates this new class of models to the canonical representation of the three-factor arbitrage-free affine model. Our empirical analysis shows that imposing the Nelson-Siegel structure on this canonical representation greatly improves its empirical tractability; furthermore, we find that improvements in predictive performance are achieved from the imposition of absence of arbitrage.
Download or read book Trading Strategies In Bond Markets written by Niklas Lachenicht and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2017-05-03 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2015 in the subject Mathematics - Applied Mathematics, grade: 1,5, University of Hannover, language: English, abstract: This work discusses trading strategies with focus on the application in the government bond market. An arbitrage-free yield curve prediction model and a parametric estimation method are presented to form the basis of finding trading strategies. The arbitrage-free model is based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model. The parametric approach is the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel method. For the US Treasury yield curve the performance of both methods is tested and compared to each other. Moreover, portfolio optimization with respect to the conditional value at risk is illustrated. A smoothing technique and the Nesterov procedure are exhibited as efficient implementations of the linked portfolio selection problem. At last, it is shown in an example for US Treasuries how the estimated yield curve can be incorporated into portfolio optimization to derive trading strategies. --- In der vorliegende Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie Strategien für das Handeln von staatlichen Obligationen entwickelt werden können. Die Basis hierzu bilden ein arbitrage-freier Ansatz und ein parametrischer Ansatz, um die Zinskurve vorherzusagen. Der arbitrage-freie Ansatz basiert auf dem Heath-Jarrow-Morton Modell, der parametrische Ansatz ist die dynamische Nelson-Siegel Methode. Der praktische Nutzen beider Verfahren wird für US Staatsanleihen untersucht und einander gegenüber gestellt. Im Weiteren wird die Theorie der Portfolio Optimierung bezüglich des Conditional Value at Risks vorgestellt und zwei Verfahren zu dessen effizienten Implementierung erklärt. Schlussendlich wird an einem Beispiel für US Staatsanleihen gezeigt, wie die Methoden zur Zinsvorhersage in das Porfoliooptimierungsproblem mit einbezogen werden können, um Handelsstrategien zu entwickeln.
Download or read book Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Modeling written by L. Krippner and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-01-05 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nominal yields on government debt in several countries have fallen very near their zero lower bound (ZLB), causing a liquidity trap and limiting the capacity to stimulate economic growth. This book provides a comprehensive reference to ZLB structure modeling in an applied setting.
Download or read book Financial Modeling Actuarial Valuation and Solvency in Insurance written by Mario V. Wüthrich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-04 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk management for financial institutions is one of the key topics the financial industry has to deal with. The present volume is a mathematically rigorous text on solvency modeling. Currently, there are many new developments in this area in the financial and insurance industry (Basel III and Solvency II), but none of these developments provides a fully consistent and comprehensive framework for the analysis of solvency questions. Merz and Wüthrich combine ideas from financial mathematics (no-arbitrage theory, equivalent martingale measure), actuarial sciences (insurance claims modeling, cash flow valuation) and economic theory (risk aversion, probability distortion) to provide a fully consistent framework. Within this framework they then study solvency questions in incomplete markets, analyze hedging risks, and study asset-and-liability management questions, as well as issues like the limited liability options, dividend to shareholder questions, the role of re-insurance, etc. This work embeds the solvency discussion (and long-term liabilities) into a scientific framework and is intended for researchers as well as practitioners in the financial and actuarial industry, especially those in charge of internal risk management systems. Readers should have a good background in probability theory and statistics, and should be familiar with popular distributions, stochastic processes, martingales, etc.
Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Download or read book Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time written by Tomas Björk and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2009-08-06 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The third edition of this popular introduction to the classical underpinnings of the mathematics behind finance continues to combine sound mathematical principles with economic applications. Concentrating on the probabilistic theory of continuous arbitrage pricing of financial derivatives, including stochastic optimal control theory and Merton's fund separation theory, the book is designed for graduate students and combines necessary mathematical background with a solid economic focus. It includes a solved example for every new technique presented, contains numerous exercises, and suggests further reading in each chapter. In this substantially extended new edition Bjork has added separate and complete chapters on the martingale approach to optimal investment problems, optimal stopping theory with applications to American options, and positive interest models and their connection to potential theory and stochastic discount factors. More advanced areas of study are clearly marked to help students and teachers use the book as it suits their needs.
Download or read book Fixed Income Portfolio Analytics written by David Jamieson Bolder and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-02 with total page 559 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book offers a detailed, robust, and consistent framework for the joint consideration of portfolio exposure, risk, and performance across a wide range of underlying fixed-income instruments and risk factors. Through extensive use of practical examples, the author also highlights the necessary technical tools and the common pitfalls that arise when working in this area. Finally, the book discusses tools for testing the reasonableness of the key analytics to help build and maintain confidence for using these techniques in day-to-day decision making. This will be of keen interest to risk managers, analysts and asset managers responsible for fixed-income portfolios.
Download or read book Advanced Fixed Income Analysis written by Moorad Choudhry and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each new chapter of the Second Edition covers an aspect of the fixed income market that has become relevant to investors but is not covered at an advanced level in existing textbooks. This is material that is pertinent to the investment decisions but is not freely available to those not originating the products. Professor Choudhry’s method is to place ideas into contexts in order to keep them from becoming too theoretical. While the level of mathematical sophistication is both high and specialized, he includes a brief introduction to the key mathematical concepts. This is a book on the financial markets, not mathematics, and he provides few derivations and fewer proofs. He draws on both his personal experience as well as his own research to bring together subjects of practical importance to bond market investors and analysts. Presents practitioner-level theories and applications, never available in textbooks Focuses on financial markets, not mathematics Covers relative value investing, returns analysis, and risk estimation
Download or read book Term Structure Models written by Damir Filipovic and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-07-28 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.
Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics Mathematics Statistics And Machine Learning In 4 Volumes written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Download or read book Financial Statistics and Data Analytics written by Shuangzhe Li and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-03-02 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern financial management is largely about risk management, which is increasingly data-driven. The problem is how to extract information from the data overload. It is here that advanced statistical and machine learning techniques can help. Accordingly, finance, statistics, and data analytics go hand in hand. The purpose of this book is to bring the state-of-art research in these three areas to the fore and especially research that juxtaposes these three.
Download or read book Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.
Download or read book Binomial Models in Finance written by John van der Hoek and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-18 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the modelling of prices of ?nancial assets in a simple d- crete time, discrete state, binomial framework. By avoiding the mathematical technicalitiesofcontinuoustime?nancewehopewehavemadethematerial accessible to a wide audience. Some of the developments and formulae appear here for the ?rst time in book form. We hope our book will appeal to various audiences. These include MBA s- dents,upperlevelundergraduatestudents,beginningdoctoralstudents,qu- titative analysts at a basic level and senior executives who seek material on new developments in ?nance at an accessible level. The basic building block in our book is the one-step binomial model where a known price today can take one of two possible values at a future time, which might, for example, be tomorrow, or next month, or next year. In this simple situation “risk neutral pricing” can be de?ned and the model can be applied to price forward contracts, exchange rate contracts and interest rate derivatives. In a few places we discuss multinomial models to explain the notions of incomplete markets and how pricing can be viewed in such a context, where unique prices are no longer available. The simple one-period framework can then be extended to multi-period m- els.TheCox-Ross-RubinsteinapproximationtotheBlackScholesoptionpr- ing formula is an immediate consequence. American, barrier and exotic - tions can all be discussed and priced using binomial models. More precise modelling issues such as implied volatility trees and implied binomial trees are treated, as well as interest rate models like those due to Ho and Lee; and Black, Derman and Toy.
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
