Download or read book Disagreement Versus Uncertainty written by Fabian Krueger and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a cross-section of economic survey forecasts to predict the distribution of US macro variables in real time. This generalizes the existing literature, which uses disagreement (i.e., the cross-sectional variance of survey forecasts) to predict uncertainty (i.e., the conditional variance of future macroeconomic quantities). Our results show that cross-sectional information can be helpful for distribution forecasting, but this information needs to be modelled in a statistically efficient way in order to avoid overfitting. A simple one-parameter model which exploits time variation in the cross-section of survey point forecasts is found to perform well in practice.

Download or read book Agreeing on Disagreement written by Saskia ter Ellen and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Agreeing on Disagreement written by Saskia ter Ellen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study whether disagreement is a useful proxy for uncertainty in the foreign exchange market using monthly forecasts for the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar over the 2001 - 2017 period. We obtain measures of uncertainty and find that disagreement is not robustly related to uncertainty, as results depend heavily on the forecast horizon. In addition, we find that disagreement is positively associated with market liquidity and trading activity. This confirms that disagreement is not a proper proxy for uncertainty and suggests that it is more akin to heterogeneity.

Download or read book Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World written by Daron Acemoglu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ormal, and the t-distributions), asymptotic agreement does not obtain even in the limit as the amount of uncertainty disappears. Lack of common priors has important implications for economic behavior in a range of circumstances. We illustrate how the type of learning outlined in this paper interacts with economic behavior in various different situations, including games of common interest, coordination, asset trading and bargaining.

Download or read book Ethics Conflict and Medical Treatment for Children E Book written by Dominic Wilkinson and published by Elsevier Health Sciences. This book was released on 2018-08-05 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What should happen when doctors and parents disagree about what would be best for a child? When should courts become involved? Should life support be stopped against parents’ wishes? The case of Charlie Gard, reached global attention in 2017. It led to widespread debate about the ethics of disagreements between doctors and parents, about the place of the law in such disputes, and about the variation in approach between different parts of the world. In this book, medical ethicists Dominic Wilkinson and Julian Savulescu critically examine the ethical questions at the heart of disputes about medical treatment for children. They use the Gard case as a springboard to a wider discussion about the rights of parents, the harms of treatment, and the vital issue of limited resources. They discuss other prominent UK and international cases of disagreement and conflict. From opposite sides of the debate Wilkinson and Savulescu provocatively outline the strongest arguments in favour of and against treatment. They analyse some of the distinctive and challenging features of treatment disputes in the 21st century and argue that disagreement about controversial ethical questions is both inevitable and desirable. They outline a series of lessons from the Gard case and propose a radical new ‘dissensus’ framework for future cases of disagreement. This new book critically examines the core ethical questions at the heart of disputes about medical treatment for children. The contents review prominent cases of disagreement from the UK and internationally and analyse some of the distinctive and challenging features around treatment disputes in the 21st century. The book proposes a radical new framework for future cases of disagreement around the care of gravely ill people.

Download or read book Five Dimensions of the Uncertainty Disagreement Linkage written by Alexander Glas and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the relationship between forecaster disagreement and macroeconomic uncertainty in the Euro area using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1999Q1-2018Q4. We find that disagreement is generally a poor proxy for uncertainty. However, the strength of this link varies with the employed dispersion statistic, the choice of either the point forecasts or the histogram means to calculate disagreement, the considered outcome variable and the forecast horizon. In contrast, distributional assumptions do not appear to be very influential. The relationship is weaker during economically turbulent periods when indicators of uncertainty are needed most. Accounting for the entry and exit of forecasters to and from the survey has little impact on the results. We also show that survey-based uncertainty is associated with overall policy uncertainty, whereas forecaster disagreement is more closely related to the fluctuations on financial markets.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Model Disagreement and Economic Outlook written by Daniel Andrei and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of model disagreement on the dynamics of asset prices, return volatility, and trade in the market. In our continuous-time framework, two investors have homogeneous preferences and equal access to information, but disagree about the length of the business cycle. We show that model disagreement amplifies return volatility and trading volume by inducing agents to have different economic outlooks, which generates a term structure of disagreement. Different economic outlooks imply that investors will trade even if they do not disagree about the current value of fundamentals. Also, we find that while the absolute level of return volatility is driven by long-run risk, the variation and persistence of volatility (i.e., volatility clustering) is driven by disagreement. Compared to previous studies that consider model uncertainty with a representative agent or those that study heterogeneous beliefs with no model disagreement, our paper offers a theoretical foundation for the GARCH-like behavior of stock returns.

Download or read book HBR Guide to Dealing with Conflict HBR Guide Series written by Amy Gallo and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2017-03-14 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While some of us enjoy a lively debate with colleagues and others prefer to suppress our feelings over disagreements, we all struggle with conflict at work. Every day we navigate an office full of competing interests, clashing personalities, limited time and resources, and fragile egos. Sure, we share the same overarching goals as our colleagues, but we don't always agree on how to achieve them. We work differently. We rub each other the wrong way. We jockey for position. How can you deal with conflict at work in a way that is both professional and productive—where it improves both your work and your relationships? You start by understanding whether you generally seek or avoid conflict, identifying the most frequent reasons for disagreement, and knowing what approaches work for what scenarios. Then, if you decide to address a particular conflict, you use that information to plan and conduct a productive conversation. The HBR Guide to Dealing with Conflict will give you the advice you need to: Understand the most common sources of conflict Explore your options for addressing a disagreement Recognize whether you—and your counterpart—typically seek or avoid conflict Prepare for and engage in a difficult conversation Manage your and your counterpart's emotions Develop a resolution together Know when to walk away Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.

Download or read book Disagreement and Rationality written by Hailey JiMin Kwon and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disagreement abounds across all areas of inquiry, from everyday matters to philosophy to science to public policy. This dissertation aims to address the following questions as related to the epistemology of disagreement: Can epistemic agents who share the same body of evidence and similar cognitive capacities rationally disagree? Could there be multiple epistemic values that are equally worth pursuing, thereby making rational disagreement possible? Should awareness of disagreement affect our doxastic attitude? If so, how? Contemporary epistemologists disagree about whether uncertainty (e.g., situations where the available evidence is insufficient or indeterminate as to tell us what the truth is) leaves room for more than one rational doxastic response. Chapter One begins with an overview of the so-called uniqueness vs. permissivism debate about rationality. On both sides of the debate, nearly everyone agrees that rational agents ought to believe truths. If our ability to discern what is actually true or most accurate is hindered by uncertainty, then it is often assumed, we ought to believe what is expectedly accurate . For uniqueness theorists, the only rational doxastic attitude is the one that is most expectedly accurate. For permissivists, multiple doxastic attitudes may be equally expectedly accurate and thus equally justified. The background assumption that truth or accuracy is the ultimate epistemic aim is so deeply entrenched in epistemology that it is rarely stated explicitly. In Chapter One, I show that the success of some of the most prominent arguments for uniqueness relies on what I refer to as "alethic monism", the view that truth or accuracy is the sole source of contributory epistemic value. Chapter Two undermines alethic value monism. In particular, I argue that epistemic value monism is false because understanding is another fundamental epistemic value. To establish epistemic value pluralism, I argue that while understanding requires accuracy, they're not reducible to each other since the former is fundamentally non-separable and the latter separable. Moreover, I show that understanding is distinctively valuable because its value does not supervene on the value of accuracy. One result of epistemic value pluralism is a novel argument for permissivism. If understanding is indeed another fundamental contributory value, to what extent a doxastic state is justified may depend not only on its expected accuracy value, but also on its expected understanding value. If neither accuracy nor understanding decisively trumps the other, and there's no determinate way of aggregating the two values, then different candidate aggregation methods may recommend a different credence. If so, I argue, more than one epistemic response may be rationally permissible with respect to a proposition and a body of evidence. If permissivism is true, then completely rational disagreement is to be expected even in response to the same body of evidence, including scientific and statistical evidence relevant to public policy. Does rational disagreement regarding which measures to take pose a threat to concrete decision making in the context of public policy? If experts disagree about what ought to be done in response to a crisis, how do we go about circumventing decision paralysis? Given that rational disagreements exist, Chapter Three proposes a strategy for generating a concrete action plan even when policy makers disagree about the best course of action. More specifically, I argue that experts need not conciliate their credence to reach a concrete action plan. When there's a disagreement about the relevant probabilities of certain outcomes of the available actions, for example, the rationally disagreeing credences can be represented as imprecise probabilities. I propose modifying a formal decision theory known as risk-weighted expected utility theory to accommodate cases of imprecise probabilities to output a concrete action when no policy option is straightforwardly dominated. This decision theory I develop, imprecise risk-weighted expected utility, I argue, is also best suited for precisifying the precautionary principle, the most widely cited informal guideline for international policy.

Download or read book The law of the human judgment and the rule of direction from thence derived of rights written by George Giles Vincent and published by . This book was released on 1833 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Download or read book Taking Issue written by Baruch A. Brody MD and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A pioneer in the theory of pluralistic casuistry, the idea that there are almost as many facets to moral choices as there are cases that call for choices, Baruch Brody takes issue with conventional bioethical wisdom and challenges the rigid principalism of contemporary bioethics. His views have been seen as controversial, but they are firmly held, and convincingly argued—all of which have led him to be one of the most widely discussed and highly admired bioethicists of our time. He argues for the fundamental distinction between active and passive euthanasia, for a need to reconceptualize approaches to brain death, and for the right of providers to unilaterally discontinue life support. He shows support for the waiving of the requirement of informed consent for some research, for the widespread use of animals in research, and for the use of placebos in many international clinical trials. When it comes to morality as it is practiced in medicine, Brody makes clear that the ethical issues are never as simple as black and white—that there are myriad factors and fine nuances that can and should challenge decision making as it is commonly practiced in difficult medical cases. In this collection, delving thoughtfully and systematically into methodology, research ethics, clinical ethics, and Jewish medical ethics, he tackles thorny life-and-death questions head-on and fearlessly. He casts a light into all the corners of end-of-life decisions—a field in which he has exemplary credentials—while illuminating a new understanding of morality and ethics. The introduction outlines Brody's approach, defines the terminology used, and contrasts his ethical positions with much of the competing literature. Taking Issue will be invaluable to students and scholars in medical ethics, bioethics, and philosophy of medicine.

Download or read book Moral Uncertainty and Its Consequences written by Ted Lockhart and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000-04-20 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We are often uncertain how to behave morally in complex situations. In this controversial study, Ted Lockhart contends that moral philosophy has failed to address how we make such moral decisions. Adapting decision theory to the task of decision-making under moral uncertainly, he proposes that we should not always act how we feel we ought to act, and that sometimes we should act against what we feel to be morally right. Lockhart also discusses abortion extensively and proposes new ways to deal with the ethical and moral issues which surround it.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking written by David G. Mayes and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 656 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic influence of central banks has received ever more attention given their centrality during the financial crises that led to the Great Recession, strains in the European Union, and the challenges to the Euro. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice and covers a wide range of topics that will provide insight to students, scholars, and practitioners. As an up to date reference of the current and potential challenges faced by central banks in the conduct of monetary policy and in the search for the maintenance of financial system stability, this Oxford Handbook covers a wide range of essential issues. The first section provides insights into central bank governance, the differing degrees of central bank independence, and the internal dynamics of their decision making. The next section focuses on questions of whether central banks can ameliorate fiscal burdens, various strategies to affect monetary policy, and how the global financial crisis affected the relationship between the traditional focus on inflation targeting and unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), foreign exchange market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. The next two sections turn to central bank communications and management of expectations and then mechanisms of policy transmission. The fifth part explores the challenges of recent developments in the economy and debates about the roles central banks should play, focusing on micro- and macro-prudential arguments. The implications of recent developments for policy modeling are covered in the last section. The breadth and depth enhances understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing central banks.

Download or read book The American Journal of Psychology written by Granville Stanley Hall and published by . This book was released on 1924 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A New Contract with the Middle Class written by Richard V. Reeves and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A better future for the middle class is no longer an aspiration. It is a necessity. The disintegration of the American Dream is more visible than ever before. The understanding—the contract—that existed between individuals willing to work and contribute and a society willing to support those individuals when they needed it is falling apart. Now is the time to draft a new contract with America's middle class. One that rewards work and service, improves upward mobility, and reduces inequality. In A New Contract with the Middle Class Brookings senior fellows Isabel Sawhill and Richard Reeves outline the foundations of what that new contract should be, based on discussions they had across the country with middle-class Americans. Sawhill and Reeves' recommendations provide solutions to issues that came up time and time again in these conversations: money, time, relationships, health, and respect. Some of the bold recommendations included in A New Contract with the Middle Class: • Eliminate virtually all income taxes paid by the middle class. • Raise the minimum wage and subsidize wages below the median with a worker tax credit. • Offer scholarships for those who undertake at least a year of national service. • Ensure four weeks of paid leave per year. • Align school and working hours and boost child care to help working parents. America is only as strong as the American middle-class. A New Contract with the Middle Class proposes a new way forward.