Download or read book Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty written by William A. Bomberger and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents evidence from the Livingston survey of inflation forecasts that forecaster disagreement provides a useful measure of forecast uncertainty. The evidence is analogous to the evidence for ARCH effects. Disagreement at the time of the forecast has a large positive effect on the conditional variance of the subsequent forecast error. As a conditioning variable, forecaster disagreement dominates ARCH for both survey errors and the error terms in Engle's quarterly model of inflation. As measured by the resulting conditional variances, disagreement indicates larger and more variable levels of uncertainty for the 1946-94 period.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting written by Stefania D'Amico and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty written by Luca Gambetti and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Download or read book Scalable Uncertainty Management written by Jesse Davis and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-16 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2020, which was held in Bozen-Bolzano, Italy, in September 2020. The 12 full, 7 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 30 submissions. Besides that, the book also contains 2 abstracts of invited talks, 2 tutorial papers, and 2 PhD track papers. The conference aims to gather researchers with a common interest in managing and analyzing imperfect information from a wide range of fields, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, databases, information retrieval and data mining, the semantic web and risk analysis. Due to the Corona pandemic SUM 2020 was held as an virtual event.
Download or read book Uncertainty Information and Disagreement of Economic Forecasters written by Mehdi Shoja and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An information framework is proposed for the systematic application, unification, and generalizations of the measures used in the uncertainty and disagreement of economic forecasters literature. The framework uses the mixture model of density forecasts and applies an uncertainty function and an information divergence to individual forecast distributions generated in a random environment and to their mixture distribution. The focal measure is the Jensen-Shannon divergence of the mixture which admits Kullback-Leibler and mutual information representations. Illustrations include exploring the dynamics of the individual and aggregate uncertainty about the US inflation rate using the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Each quarter the SPF solicits forecast distributions on a set of intervals and the survey design has been changed over time. We show that the normalized entropy index corrects the distortion caused by the changes made in the number of intervals. Bayesian hierarchical models are used to examine the association of the inflation uncertainty with the anticipated inflation and the dispersion of point forecasts. Implementation of the information framework based on variance and Dirichlet model for capturing uncertainty about the probability distribution of the economic variable are briefly discussed.
Download or read book Scalable Uncertainty Management written by Davide Ciucci and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-24 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2018, which was held in Milan, Italy, in October 2018. The 23 full, 6 short papers and 2 tutorials presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 37 submissions. The conference is dedicated to the management of large amounts of complex, uncertain, incomplete, or inconsistent information. New approaches have been developed on imprecise probabilities, fuzzy set theory, rough set theory, ordinal uncertainty representations, or even purely qualitative models.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Download or read book Scalable Uncertainty Management written by Serafín Moral and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-20 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, SUM 2017, which was held in Granada, Spain, in October 2017. The 24 full and 6 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 35 submissions. The book also contains 3 invited papers. Managing uncertainty and inconsistency has been extensively explored in Artificial Intelligence over a number of years. Now, with the advent of massive amounts of data and knowledge from distributed, heterogeneous, and potentially conflicting sources, there is interest in developing and applying formalisms for uncertainty and inconsistency in systems that need to better manage this data and knowledge. The International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty (SUM) aims to provide a forum for researchers who are working on uncertainty management, in different communities and with different uncertainty models, to meet and exchange ideas.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking written by David G. Mayes and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 656 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic influence of central banks has received ever more attention given their centrality during the financial crises that led to the Great Recession, strains in the European Union, and the challenges to the Euro. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice and covers a wide range of topics that will provide insight to students, scholars, and practitioners. As an up to date reference of the current and potential challenges faced by central banks in the conduct of monetary policy and in the search for the maintenance of financial system stability, this Oxford Handbook covers a wide range of essential issues. The first section provides insights into central bank governance, the differing degrees of central bank independence, and the internal dynamics of their decision making. The next section focuses on questions of whether central banks can ameliorate fiscal burdens, various strategies to affect monetary policy, and how the global financial crisis affected the relationship between the traditional focus on inflation targeting and unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), foreign exchange market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. The next two sections turn to central bank communications and management of expectations and then mechanisms of policy transmission. The fifth part explores the challenges of recent developments in the economy and debates about the roles central banks should play, focusing on micro- and macro-prudential arguments. The implications of recent developments for policy modeling are covered in the last section. The breadth and depth enhances understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing central banks.
Download or read book Proxying Economic Uncertainty written by Oscar Claveria and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents' expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based uncertainty indicators derived from business and consumer surveys exclusively make of the information coming from the respondents expecting a variable to rise or to fall. With the aim of also incorporating the information coming from the share of respondents expecting a variable to remain constant, we propose a geometrical framework and use a barycentric coordinate system to generate a measure of disagreement, referred to as a discrepancy indicator. We assess its performance, both empirically and experimentally, by comparing it to the standard deviation of the share of positive and negative responses, which has been used by Bachman et al. (2013) as a proxy for economic uncertainty. When applied in sixteen European countries, we find that both time-varying metrics co-evolve in most countries for expectations about the country's overall economic situation in the present, but not in the future. Additionally, we obtain their simulated sampling distributions and we find that the proposed indicator gravitates uniformly towards the three vertices of the simplex representing the three answering categories, as opposed to the standard deviation, which tends to overestimate the level of uncertainty as a result of ignoring the no-change responses. Consequently, we find evidence that the information coming from agents expecting a variable to remain constant has an effect on the measurement of disagreement.
Download or read book Analogy and Structure written by R. Skousen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analogy and Structure provides the necessary foundation for understanding the nature of analogical and structuralist (or rule-based) approaches to describing behavior. In the first part of this book, the mathematical properties of rule approaches are developed; in the second part, the analogical alternative to rules is developed. This book serves as the mathematical basis for Analogical Modeling of Language (Kluwer, 1989). Features include: A Natural Measure of Uncertainty: The disagreement between randomly chosen occurences avids the difficulties of using entropy as the measure of uncertainty. Optimal Descriptions: The implicit assumption of structuralist descriptions (namely, that descriptions of behavior should be corrected and minimal) can be derived from more fundamental statements about the uncertainty of rule systems. Problems with Rule Approaches: The correct description of nondeterministic behavior leads to an atomistic, analog alternative to structuralist (or rule-based) descriptions. Natural Statistics: Traditional statistical tests are eliminated in favor of statistically equivalent decision rules that involve little or no mathematical calculation. Psycholinguistic Factors: Analogical models, unlike, neural networks, directly account for probabilistic learning as well as reaction times in world-recognition experiments.
Download or read book Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge Based Systems written by Eyke Hüllermeier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-25 with total page 786 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The International Conference on Information Processing and Management of - certainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU, is organized every two years with the aim of bringing together scientists working on methods for the management of uncertainty and aggregation of information in intelligent systems. Since 1986, this conference has been providing a forum for the exchange of ideas between th theoreticians and practitioners working in these areas and related ?elds. The 13 IPMU conference took place in Dortmund, Germany, June 28–July 2, 2010. This volume contains 79 papers selected through a rigorous reviewing process. The contributions re?ect the richness of research on topics within the scope of the conference and represent several important developments, speci?cally focused on theoretical foundations and methods for information processing and management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. We were delighted that Melanie Mitchell (Portland State University, USA), Nihkil R. Pal (Indian Statistical Institute), Bernhard Sch ̈ olkopf (Max Planck I- titute for Biological Cybernetics, Tubing ̈ en, Germany) and Wolfgang Wahlster (German Research Center for Arti?cial Intelligence, Saarbruc ̈ ken) accepted our invitations to present keynote lectures. Jim Bezdek received the Kamp ́ede F ́ eriet Award, granted every two years on the occasion of the IPMU conference, in view of his eminent research contributions to the handling of uncertainty in clustering, data analysis and pattern recognition.
Download or read book NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005 written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics brings together leading American and European economists to discuss a broad range of current issues in global macroeconomics. An international companion to the more American-focused NBER Macroeconomics Annual, the 2005 volume first explores macroeconomic issues of interest to all advanced economies, then analyzes topical questions concerning the eastward expansion of the European Monetary Union.Jeffrey A. Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Economic Growth at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. Christopher A. Pissarides is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Both are Research Associates at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Download or read book Econometric Forecasting and High frequency Data Analysis written by Roberto S. Mariano and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important book consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting, written by pioneers in these areas including Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. Some of the chapters were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006. They will be of interest to researchers working in macroeconometrics as well as financial econometrics. Moreover, readers will find these chapters useful as a guide to the literature as well as suggestions for future research. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (32 KB). Chapter 1: Forecast Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation* (97 KB). Contents: Forecasting Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation (K F Wallis); The University of Pennsylvania Models for High-Frequency Macroeconomic Modeling (L R Klein & S Ozmucur); Forecasting Seasonal Time Series (P H Franses); Car and Affine Processes (C Gourieroux); Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (M Deistler). Readership: Professionals and researchers in econometric forecasting and financial data analysis.
Download or read book Essays in Honor of M Hashem Pesaran written by Alexander Chudik and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-01-18 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, Professor M. Hashem Pesaran.
Download or read book Handbook of American Public Administration written by Edmund C. Stazyk and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018-10-26 with total page 571 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Currently, public administration as art and science ponders a challenging and uncertain future. Thus, no better time exists to take stock and ponder the practical and theoretical value of its topical coverage to date. Stazyk and Frederickson have assembled an eclectic and impressive group of senior and junior scholars to join them in this intellectual exercise. Collectively, the contributors offer a stiletto-like dissection of where and how the field's energy has been expended, what knowledge it has produced, what its limitations are, and where future energies might best be expended. Kudos to all.' - Robert F. Durant, American University, US This forward-thinking Handbook draws on the expertise of established and emerging scholars to provide a comprehensive review of the current state and future direction of theory and practice in US public administration. Chapters offer a cross-disciplinary, holistic review of the field, pulling together leaders from subfields such as public administration, public and nonprofit management, finance, human resource management, networks, nonprofits, policy, and politics. Chapter authors conclude that the field is intellectually rich and highly nuanced, but also identify numerous opportunities for growth and expansion in the coming years. The Handbook charts an agenda for future research in the field. TheHandbook of American Public Administrationis geared toward academics, researchers, and advanced graduate students. As an authoritative text on the history and state of US public administration, it proves equally suitable for national and international audiences. Practitioners who may be looking for background information or state-of-the-art knowledge about practice will also benefit from this Handbook. Contributors include: G. Arnold, G.A. Brewer, B.J. Cook, R.S. Davis, L. DeHart-Davis, M.D. Farnworth, P.S. Federman, S. Fernandez, H.G. Frederickson, H. Getha-Taylor, R.K. Ghere, D. Hatmaker, K. Hendren, C.J. Hill, N. Humphrey, K.R. Isett, S. Jo, J.E. Kellough, S.Y. Kim, Y. Kim, L. Langbein, M. Leighninger, L.E. Lynn, Jr., D.S.T. Matkin, B. Merriman, C.C. Merritt, A.V. Moldavanova, T. Nabatchi, S. Nicholson-Crotty, R. O'Leary, Z.W. Oberfield, A. Osorio, S.K. Pandey, Y.J. Park, S. Portillo, B.A. Radin, W.G. Resh, R.L. St. Clair, J.R. Sandfort, L.M. Shimek, A.E. Smith, S.R. Smith, E.C. Stazyk, S. Webeck, E.S. Zeemering, H.L. Zook
