Download or read book Global Business Cycles and Developing Countries written by Eri Ikeda and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-17 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates how global business cycles impact the economies of developing countries. Global business cycles, the wave-like movements of economic expansion followed by contraction in aggregate economic activities, impact all economies comprising the global economy. The patterns being shown in developing countries correspond increasingly to those in the global north, and yet there is a relative dearth of studies exploring whether global business cycles exist and how they operate in developing economies. This book explores how cycles operate at the global and sub-global developing country levels, with a particular focus on the level of development and the structure of the economies. Drawing an important distinction between cycles and fluctuations, the book criticises mainstream conceptualisation and identification of cycle phenomena, and instead proposes an alternative conception and methodology for the identification of cycles. Along the way, the book also delves into the manufacturing and rise of China, and other potential competitors in the industrial arena, as increasingly important drivers of global cycles and global economic growth. This book will be an important read for researchers and upper-level students of development economics and international political economy.

Download or read book Developing Country Business Cycles written by Rachel Male and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical business cycles, following Burns and Mitchell (1946), can be defined as the sequential pattern of expansions and contractions in aggregate economic activity. Recently, Harding and Pagan (2002, 2006) have provided an econometric toolkit for the analysis of these cycles, and this has resulted in a recent surge in researchers using these methods to analyse developing country business cycles. However, the existing literature consists of diminutive samples and the majority fail to consider the statistical significance of the concordance statistics. To address this shortfall, this paper examines the business cycle characteristics and synchronicity for thirty-two developing countries. Furthermore, the US, the UK and Japan are included; this provides benchmarks upon which to compare the characteristics of the developing country cycles and also to examine the degree of synchronisation between developed and developing countries. Significantly, this research reveals that business cycles of developing countries are not, as previously believed, significantly shorter than those of the developed countries. However, the amplitude of both expansion and contraction phases tends to be greater in the developing countries. Furthermore a clear relationship between the timing of business cycle fluctuations and periods of significant regional crises, such as the Asian Financial Crisis, is exhibited. However, the more specific timing of the onset of these fluctuations appears to be determined by country-specific factors. Moreover, there are no clear patterns of concordance either within regions or between developed and developing country business cycles. -- Classical business cycle ; Turning points ; Synchronisation ; Concordance ; Contagion ; Developing economies

Download or read book Developing Country Business Cycles written by Rachel Louise Male and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Identifying business cycle stylised facts is essential as these often form the basis for the construction and validation of theoretical business cycle models. Furthermore, understanding the cyclical patterns in economic activity, and their causes, is important to the decisions of both policymakers and market participants. This is of particular concern in developing countries where, in the absence of full risk sharing mechanisms, the economic and social costs of swings in the business cycle are very high. Previous analyses of developing country stylised facts have tended to feature only small samples, for example the seminal paper by Agénor et al. (2000) considers just twelve middle-income economies. Consequently, the results are subjective and dependent on the chosen countries. Motivated by the importance of these business cycle statistics and the lack of consistency amongst existing research, this thesis makes an important contribution to the literature by extending and generalising the developing country stylised facts; examining both classical and growth cycles for a sample of thirty-two developing countries. One significant finding that emerges is the persistence of output fluctuations in developing countries and the strong positive relationship between the magnitude of this persistence and the level of economic development. The observation of procyclical real wages and significant price persistence indicates the suitability of a New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices, to explore this relationship; thus, the vertical production chain model of Huang and Liu (2001) was implemented. This model lends itself to such an analysis, as by altering the number of production stages (N) it is possible to represent economies at different levels of development. There was found to be a strong significant positive relationship between the magnitude of output persistence generated by the model and economic development. However, a very significant finding of this analysis is that the model overestimates output persistence in high inflation countries and underestimates output persistence in low inflation countries. This has important implications not only for this model, but also for any economist attempting to construct a business cycle model capable of replicating the observed patterns of output persistence.

Download or read book The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country written by Romain Houssa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book Patterns of Economic Growth written by Lant Pritchett and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-04 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.

Download or read book Making It Big written by Andrea Ciani and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic and social progress requires a diverse ecosystem of firms that play complementary roles. Making It Big: Why Developing Countries Need More Large Firms constitutes one of the most up-to-date assessments of how large firms are created in low- and middle-income countries and their role in development. It argues that large firms advance a range of development objectives in ways that other firms do not: large firms are more likely to innovate, export, and offer training and are more likely to adopt international standards of quality, among other contributions. Their particularities are closely associated with productivity advantages and translate into improved outcomes not only for their owners but also for their workers and for smaller enterprises in their value chains. The challenge for economic development, however, is that production does not reach economic scale in low- and middle-income countries. Why are large firms scarcer in developing countries? Drawing on a rare set of data from public and private sources, as well as proprietary data from the International Finance Corporation and case studies, this book shows that large firms are often born large—or with the attributes of largeness. In other words, what is distinct about them is often in place from day one of their operations. To fill the “missing top†? of the firm-size distribution with additional large firms, governments should support the creation of such firms by opening markets to greater competition. In low-income countries, this objective can be achieved through simple policy reorientation, such as breaking oligopolies, removing unnecessary restrictions to international trade and investment, and establishing strong rules to prevent the abuse of market power. Governments should also strive to ensure that private actors have the skills, technology, intelligence, infrastructure, and finance they need to create large ventures. Additionally, they should actively work to spread the benefits from production at scale across the largest possible number of market participants. This book seeks to bring frontier thinking and evidence on the role and origins of large firms to a wide range of readers, including academics, development practitioners and policy makers.

Download or read book Determinants of Growth and Business Cycles written by Christoph Hausen and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth and business cycles are two distinct, but closely related issues. Economic growth is one of the most demanding challenges for policy makers and economists all over the world. In industrial countries, significant demographic changes in the decades ahead will have a major impact. At the same time, the degree of interdependency between economic regions is increasing, posing a challenge for industrial as well as developing countries. Business cycles as a topic for economic research sometimes follow a cyclical pattern themselves. Especially after long and strong boom periods the business cycle is often said to be obsolete, replaced by a new kind of pattern, a 'new' economy or the like. The empirical problem for analysts of both growth and business cycles is that new developments are difficult to monitor in real time. Cyclical, structural and other patterns are overlapping, making it difficult to assess the nature of observations. The INFER Annual Conference 2003 on "Determinants of Growth and Business Cycles: Theory, Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications" which was held in September 2003 in Giessen, Germany, gave room for theoretical papers, empirical results and case studies, including vigorous policy statements as well as elaborate modelling with a focus on practical relevance. Most of the presented papers and one of the introductory lectures are included in this volume. Papers were presented in three sessions: Session I focused on the "Determinants of Growth". Session II was on "Business Cycles: Theory and Empirical Evidence". Session III covered "Convergence and Economic Development". Contributors to this volume come from two continents and eight countries, working in research institutes, universities, central banks and international organisations.

Download or read book Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by John Rand and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Medium term business cycles in developing countries written by Diego Comin and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We build a two country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) a product cycle structure determines the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country and (ii) there are investment flow adjustment costs in the developing economy. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-US trade and FDI flows. The model is able to explain (i) why US shocks have a larger effect on Mexico than in the US and hence why the Mexican economy is more volatile than the US; (ii) why US business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico and (iii) why Mexican consumption is not less volatile than output.

Download or read book Employment Protection and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies written by Mr.Ruy Lama and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative version of the model calibrated to the Mexican economy we find that reducing separation costs to a level consistent with developed economies would reduce output volatility by 15 percent. We also use the model to analyze the Mexican crisis episode of 2008 and conclude that an economy with lower separation costs would have experienced a smaller drop in output and in measured total factor productivity with no significant change in aggregate employment.

Download or read book The Long Shadow of Informality written by Franziska Ohnsorge and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-02-09 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.

Download or read book Regional Business Cycles in Latin America written by Patricio Aroca and published by Springer. This book was released on 2024-09-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes regional business cycles in Latin America. The authors explain the nature of regional business cycles and discuss different sources of regional economic fluctuations such as technology changes, natural disasters, or supply and demand shocks. Presenting case studies on Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the authors examine the co-movement of regional business cycles as well as the differing responses of regional economies to external shocks due to regional characteristics such as availability of natural resources, and the degree of integration into national and global markets. This short book appealto students and scholars as well as policy makers interested in regional growth processes in developing countries.

Download or read book Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.

Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by Diego A. Comin and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico.

Download or read book Frontiers of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1995-02-26 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t