Download or read book Devaluations Output and the Balance Sheet Effect written by Camilo Ernesto Tovar Mora and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a new open economy macroeconomic model for South Korea to determine the output effect of currency devaluations. Three transmission mechanisms are considered: the expenditure-switching, the balance sheet, and a monetary channel associated to a nominal exchange rate target. Devaluations are defined as an increase in this target. This allows to isolate the effects of an explicit exogenous devaluationary policy shock. Ceteris paribus, a devaluation is found to be expansionary. Output contractions in South Korea should then be associated with a different shock such as an adverse shock on the international interest rate or on export demand.
Download or read book Devaluations Output and the Balance Sheet Effect written by Camilo E. Tovar and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a new open economy macroeconomic model for South Korea to determine the output effect of currency devaluations. Three transmission mechanisms are considered: the expenditure-switching, the balance sheet, and a monetary channel associated to a nominal exchange rate target. Devaluations are defined as an increase in this target. This allows to isolate the effects of an explicit exogenous devaluationary policy shock. Ceteris paribus, a devaluation is found to be expansionary. Output contractions in South Korea should then be associated with a different shock such as an adverse shock on the international interest rate or on export demand.
Download or read book The Mechanics of Devaluations and the Output Response in a DSGE Model written by Camilo Ernesto Tovar Mora and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The relative importance of different mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are analyzed using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Devaluations are defined as an increase in the central bank's nominal exchange rate target, which induces a decrease in the nominal interest rate. Three main mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are considered: The traditional expansionary expenditure-switching effect, the balance sheet effect which allows the possibility of contractionary effects when firms' debt are dollar-denominated, and a monetary channel associated with an interest rule that targets the nominal exchange rate. The model is calibrated and simulated under alternative scenarios of exchange rate regimes and shocks. Devaluations are found to be expansionary despite the contractionary balance sheet effect. In response to adverse external shocks the economy's output response improves with a devaluation the less flexible the exchange rate regime is"--Abstract.
Download or read book Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy written by Luis Felipe Céspedes and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the relation among exchange rates, balance sheets, and macroeconomic outcomes in a small open economy. Because liabilities are dollarized, ' a real devaluation has detrimental effects on entreprenurial net worth, which in turn constrains investment due to financial frictions. But there is an offsetting effect, int hat devaluation expands home output and the return to domestic investment, which are also components of net worth. We show that the impact of an adverse foreign shock can be strongly magnified by the balance sheet effect of the associated real devaluation. But the fall in output employment, and investment is stronger under fixed exchange rates than under flexible rates. Hence the conventional wisdom, that flexible exchange rates are better absorbers of real foreign shocks than are fixed rates, holds in spite of potentially large balance sheet effects.
Download or read book Three Essays in International Finance written by Camilo E. Tovar and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Mechanics of Devaluations and the Output Response in a DSGE Model written by Camilo E. Tovar and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relative importance of different mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are analyzed using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Devaluations are defined as an increase in the central bank's nominal exchange rate target, which induces a decrease in the nominal interest rate. Three main mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are considered: The traditional expansionary expenditure-switching effect, the balance sheet effect which allows the possibility of contractionary effects when firms' debt are dollar-denominated, and a monetary channel associated with an interest rule that targets the nominal exchange rate. The model is calibrated and simulated under alternative scenarios of exchange rate regimes and shocks. Devaluations are found to be expansionary despite the contractionary balance sheet effect. In response to adverse external shocks the economy's output response improves with a devaluation the less flexible the exchange rate regime is.
Download or read book Chronicle of Currency Collapses written by Matthieu Bussière and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of currency collapses (i.e. large nominal depreciations or devaluations) on real output remains unsettled in the empirical macroeconomic literature. This paper provides new empirical evidence on this relationship using a dataset for 108 emerging and developing economies for the period 1960-2006. We provide estimates of how these episodes affect growth and output trend. Our main finding is that currency collapses are associated with a permanent output loss relative to trend, which is estimated to range between 2% and 6% of GDP. However, we show that such losses tend to materialise before the drop in the value of the currency, which suggests that the costs of a currency crash largely stem from the factors leading to it. Taken on its own (i.e. ceteris paribus) we find that currency collapses tend to have a positive effect on output. More generally, we also find that the likelihood of a positive growth rate in the year of the collapse is over two times more likely than a contraction, and that positive growth rates in the years that follow such episodes are the norm. Finally, we show that the persistence of the crash matters, i.e. one-time events induce exchange rate and output dynamics that differ from consecutive episodes.
Download or read book Currency Mismatches and Vulnerability to Exchange Rate Shocks Nonfinancial Firms in Colombia written by Mr.Adolfo Barajas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After building up foreign currency denominated (FC) liabilities over several years, Colombian firms might be vulnerable to a shift in external conditions. We undertake three empirical exercises to better understand these vulnerabilities. First, we identify the determinants of FC borrowing. Second, we investigate the implications for real activity, finding a balance sheet effect that transmits exchange rate fluctuations to investment and is asymmetric, much stronger for depreciations than for appreciations. Finally, we find that foreign exchange derivatives are not used solely for hedging, due in part to monetary authority intervention to smooth exchange rate volatility. However, a full explanation remains open for future research.
Download or read book The Turning Tide How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates written by Bo Jiang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new firm-level dataset with comprehensive information on Asian firms’ FX liabilities, we show that Asia’s nonfinancial corporate sector is vulnerable to a tightening of global financial conditions. Higher global interest rates and exchange rate depreciation increase the probability of default of Asian firms. A 30 percent currency depreciation is associated with a two-notch downgrade in the corporate credit rating (e.g., from A to BBB+), resulting in 7 percent of Asian firms falling into bankruptcy. But the impact is nonlinear—as the firms’ FX liability increases, the balance sheet channel of exchange rate offsets, then dominates, the competitiveness channel. The balance sheet channel offsets the competitiveness channel when the share of U.S. dollar debt is between 10 and 20 percent. We also find that currency depreciation increases firm-level investment on average, but for firms with the share of FX liabilities above 20 percent, investment contracts with depreciation.
Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries written by Mr.Marco Airaudo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1952-01-01 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses various foreign payments practices in the United States. Most foreign payments in the United States are, therefore, done along traditional lines in whatever manner. Several nontraditional practices, however, have developed in recent years as the result of trade and payments restrictions established by foreign Governments. The amount and type of exchange sold by the US banks to their customers are limited only, if at all, by regulations abroad or by the banks' own limitations. In making or receiving foreign payments, the US banks deal generally with three types of customers which are, in the order of their importance: exporters and importers, individuals or corporations desiring to make or receive nontrade financial payments, and speculators. Foreign payments for account of individuals are usually small individually however, in the aggregate, they represent an important function of the banks located in the larger cities with a considerable foreign-born population.
Download or read book Dollarization written by Eduardo Levy Yeyati and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical and empirical analysis of de jure dollarization. With the persistent instability of international financial markets, emerging economies are exploring new ways to reduce exposure to capital flow volatility. Some analysts argue that financially open economies are best served by more flexible regimes, while others argue in favor of extreme exchange rate regimes that have a strong commitment to a fixed parity or dispense with an independent currency. The successful launch of the euro has made more realistic the prospect of replacing a national currency with a strong foreign one. Recent examples include the adoption of the US dollar by Ecuador and El Salvador. The introduction of a foreign currency as sole legal tender, termed full (de jure) dollarization, has been the center of much political and academic debate. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the issues from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The topics discussed include the role of balance sheet effects, the linkage between currency risk and country risk, the impact of dollarization on trade, financial integration and credibility, the implications of dollarization for the lender of last resort, and the institutional and political economy aspects of dollarization.
Download or read book Foreign Currency Bank Funding and Global Factors written by Signe Krogstrup and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The literature on the drivers of capital flows stresses the prominent role of global financial factors. Recent empirical work, however, highlights how this role varies across countries and time, and this heterogeneity is not well understood. We revisit this question by focusing on financial intermediaries’ funding flows in different currencies. A concise portfolio model shows that the sign and magnitude of the response of foreign currency funding flows to global risk factors depend on the financial intermediary’s pre-existing currency exposure. An analysis of a rich dataset of European banks’ aggregate balance sheets lends support to the model predictions, especially in countries outside the euro area.
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies written by Mr.Adam Bennett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-15 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dollarization - the holding by residents of a substantial portion of their assets in foreign-currency-denominated assets- is a common feature of developing and transition economies, and therefore typical of many countries with IMF - supported adjustment programs. This paper analyzes policy issues that arise-and various monetary strategies that may be pursued- when the monetary sector is dollarized, and it considers the implications that dollarization has for the design of IMF programs.
Download or read book Development Macroeconomics written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-23 with total page 792 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis triggered severe shocks for developing countries, whose embrace of greater commercial and financial openness has increased their exposure to external shocks, both real and financial. This new edition of Development Macroeconomics has been fully revised to address the more open and less stable environment in which developing countries operate today. Describing the latest advances in this rapidly changing field, the book features expanded coverage of public debt and the management of capital inflows as well as new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency unions, and the choice of an exchange-rate regime. A new chapter on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with financial frictions has been added to reflect how the financial crisis has reshaped our thinking on the role of such frictions in generating and propagating real and financial shocks. The book also discusses the role of macroprudential regulation, both independently and through its interactions with monetary policy, in preserving financial and macroeconomic stability. Now in its fourth edition, Development Macroeconomics remains the definitive textbook on the macroeconomics of developing countries. The most authoritative book on the subject—now fully revised and expanded Features new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, and much more Comes with online supplements on informal financial markets, stabilization programs, the solution of DSGE models with financial frictions, and exchange rate crises
Download or read book Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-06-01 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.
