Download or read book Detecting Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices written by Martin T. Bohl and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Testing for Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices written by Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Identifying Speculative Bubbles written by Bradley Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-11-19 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk based on price behavior alone. In response, I introduce a two-pillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance. The intuition is straightforward: while asset pricing models comprise a valuable component of the surveillance toolkit, risk taking behavior, and financial vulnerabilities more generally, can also be reflected in subtler, non-price terms. The framework appears to capture stylized facts of asset booms and busts—some of the largest in history have been associated with below average risk premia (captured by the ‘pricing pillar’) and unusually elevated patterns of issuance, trading volumes, fund flows, and survey-based return projections (reflected in the ‘quantities pillar’). Based on a comparison to past boom-bust episodes, the approach is signaling mounting vulnerabilities in risky U.S. credit markets. Policy makers and regulators should be attune to any further deterioration in issuance quality, and where possible, take steps to ensure the post-crisis financial infrastructure is braced to accommodate a re-pricing in credit risk.
Download or read book Detecting Speculative Bubbles in an It Intensive Stock Market written by Juha-Pekka Junttila and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a battery of simple unit root test procedures with alternative null hypotheses we find some evidence of speculative bubbles in the Finnish stock market for monthly data on industry portfolio returns from the 1990's. The bubbles seem to be present in the information technology (IT) returns and only during years 1997 - 2000. Furthermore, via the use of recursive causality tests we find that the dependence of the Finnish stock market on the development of macroeconomic variables varies significantly for different industry portfolio returns, and the IT-returns would seem to have a strong role in affecting particularly the time series behaviour of monetary variables at the European level, but not on the real side of the economy, neither domestic nor foreign.
Download or read book The Stock Market Bubbles Volatility and Chaos written by G.P. Dwyer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.
Download or read book Speculative Bubbles Speculative Attacks and Policy Switching written by Robert P. Flood and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.
Download or read book Detecting Speculative Bubbles Created in Experiments via Decoupling in Agent Based Models written by Magda Roszczynska-Kurasinska and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult[1-3] so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called quot;subprime crisisquot; there is clearly an urgent need for new tools in our understanding and handling of financial speculative bubbles. In contrast to periods of fast growth, the nature of market dynamics profoundly changes during speculative bubbles where self contained strategies often leads to unconditional buying. A critical question is therefore whether such a signature can be quantified, and if so, used in the understanding of what are the sufficient and necessary conditions in the creation of a speculative bubble.Here we show a new technique, based on agent based simulations, gives a robust measure of detachment of trading choices created by feedback, and predicts the onset of speculative bubbles in experiments with human subjects. We use trading data obtained from experiments with humans as input to computer simulations of artificial agents that use adaptive strategies defined from game theory. As the agents try to maximize their profit using the market data created by humans, we observe certain moments of decoupling where the decision of an agent becomes independent of the next outcome of the human experiment, leading to pockets of deterministic price actions of the agents. Decoupling in the agent based simulations in turn allows us to correctly predict at what time tlt;subgt;blt;/subgt; the subjects in the laboratory experiments have entered a bubble state. Finally in one case where the subjects do not enter a permanent bubble state, our method allow us at certain special moments to predict with a 87% success rate an unit move of the market two time steps ahead.
Download or read book Bubbleology written by Kevin A. Hassett and published by Random House Digital, Inc.. This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are only two types of stocks: those safe from bubbles and those that are not. This is a fact of investing many discovered as they saw their fabulous gains whittled away by the extreme calamity of the Internet sector. But what about the future? Is there a way for investors to capture the enormous potential for profit that exists at the frontier of the economy, the place where innovation and genius operate, without placing their fortunes in jeopardy? Is there a way to evaluate price increases--and declines--and identify whether they are happening for good or bad reasons? Bubbleology makes it possible to separate the winners from the losers. It is a brilliant, practical, and original analysis of the stock market that bashes the conventional wisdom about bubbles, showing that such famous examples as Tulipomania were not, in fact, bubbles at all. Bubbleology shows that the traditional way of evaluating risk--equating it with volatility--is inherently flawed and incomplete. If a stock fluctuates a lot in price it is regarded as risky. If the price is stable, then it is not. What this simplistic way of thinking leaves out is the simple fact that companies trying something completely new that may fundamentally alter the economic landscape are operating at the frontier. The stock of such a company swims in a sea of ambiguity, its circumstances uncertain, since there is little to provide guidance about the future. But when nobody knows for sure what will happen, pundits tell us again about Tulipomania, the South Seas Bubble, and now the debacle of the Internet to scare investors away from potentially enormous profits. To realize those profits, however, investors have tounderstand the role that uncertainty and ambiguity--the absence of reliable information about future events--play in the modern stock market. Those who equate ambiguity with bubbles will miss the great opportunities of the future. Bubbleology provides a new way to observe what is really going on in the market, enabling you to understand whether a stock or a sector is suspicious--whether it is in a bubble and therefore something to be avoided. Finding bubbles requires knowing where to look and what to look for. Bubbleology will help you avoid both streaming into speculative manias and shying away from perfectly good business opportunities. It tells you why you need to avoid both pontificating pundits and overconfident stock analysts. With this unique and forward-thinking book, you can inspect suspicious stocks, accurately discern risk, and diagnose a blossoming bubble before it vanishes along with your money.
Download or read book Bursting the Bubble Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market written by David F. DeRosa and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-04-02 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.
Download or read book Anatomy Of Stock Market Bubbles written by György Komáromi and published by ICFAI Books. This book was released on 2006-11-14 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents one of the most controversial happenings in economics stock market bubbles. The author discusses this topic threadbare and provides a critical analysis of related literature from different economic schools. This book also presents analy
Download or read book Stock Markets Speculative Bubbles and Economic Growth written by Mathias Binswanger and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1999 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examining the role of speculative bubbles in the stock market, this text argues that, provided they are sustainable, bubbles may have a positive effect on the market. They may provide additional investment opportunities with the potential to increase aggregate profits and improve economic welfare.
Download or read book Are There Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices written by James M. O'Brien and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Identification of Speculative Bubbles Using State Space Models with Markov Switching written by Nael Al-Anaswah and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we use a state-space model with Markov-switching to detect speculative bubbles in stock-price data. Our two innovations are (1) to adapt this technology to the state-space representation of a well-known present-value stock-price model, and (2) to estimate the model via Kalman-filtering using a plethora of artificial as well as real-world data sets that are known to contain bubble periods. Analyzing the smoothed regime probabilities, we find that our technology is well suited to detecting stock-price bubbles in both types of data sets.
Download or read book Detecting Stock Market Bubbles written by Austin F. Murphy and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To this day, economists argue about the existence of stock market bubbles. The literature review for this paper observes the analysis of four reputable bubble tests in an attempt to provide ample qualitative proof for the existence of bubbles. The first obstacle for creating an effective bubble detection test is the difficulty of estimating true fundamental values for equities. Without adequate estimations for the fundamental values of equities, the deviation between actual price and fundamental price is impossible to observe or estimate. Additionally, these tests are reliant on strong underlying assumptions, which tend to cloud results. This thesis applies a price-to-earnings ratio test adapted from a thesis written by Bram Weites and Malte von Maravic (2010). The model utilizes a relationship between the risk and price-to-earnings ratios of equities to econometrically test for bubbles. The test has an advantage over previous bubble literature because it does not require the estimation of the fundamental values of equities. A rolling regression is applied to the econometric model, and four bubbles are detected. The Dot-com bubble is detected with complete confidence, and three other bubbles are detected with slightly less confidence.
Download or read book Detecting and Measuring Financial Market Bubbles written by Rad Fariba and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviewing the history of financial bubbles indicates that there is no unique definition of the financial bubbles. Given the importance of understanding financial bubbles, the focus of this research is to define and detect bubbles in financial markets. The identification of bubbles is conducted by using stock prices from the internet bubble in the late 1990s. This study defines a bubble based on if the current stock price increases by more than 100% and then decreases by at least 50%. Bubbles were found in 30 of the 40 internet companies studied. The first approach using mostly 10 and 40 day moving averages indicated that most bubbles occurred in less than 150 days from beginning to end. The second approach was to measure the size of the bubble and results showed that most of the bubbles were smaller in size. For the third approach, measuring asymmetry of bubbles, results showed that stocks fall faster than they rise. These insights may be valuable to assist investors and policymakers with their decision making.
Download or read book Bubbleology written by Kevin Hassett and published by Currency. This book was released on 2002-07-23 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are only two types of stocks: those safe from bubbles and those that are not. This is a fact of investing many discovered as they saw their fabulous gains whittled away by the extreme calamity of the Internet sector. But what about the future? Is there a way for investors to capture the enormous potential for profit that exists at the frontier of the economy, the place where innovation and genius operate, without placing their fortunes in jeopardy? Is there a way to evaluate price increases—and declines—and identify whether they are happening for good or bad reasons? Bubbleology makes it possible to separate the winners from the losers. It is a brilliant, practical, and original analysis of the stock market that bashes the conventional wisdom about bubbles, showing that such famous examples as Tulipomania were not, in fact, bubbles at all. Bubbleology shows that the traditional way of evaluating risk—equating it with volatility—is inherently flawed and incomplete. If a stock fluctuates a lot in price it is regarded as risky. If the price is stable, then it is not. What this simplistic way of thinking leaves out is the simple fact that companies trying something completely new that may fundamentally alter the economic landscape are operating at the frontier. The stock of such a company swims in a sea of ambiguity, its circumstances uncertain, since there is little to provide guidance about the future. But when nobody knows for sure what will happen, pundits tell us again about Tulipomania, the South Seas Bubble, and now the debacle of the Internet to scare investors away from potentially enormous profits. To realize those profits, however, investors have to understand the role that uncertainty and ambiguity—the absence of reliable information about future events—play in the modern stock market. Those who equate ambiguity with bubbles will miss the great opportunities of the future. Bubbleology provides a new way to observe what is really going on in the market, enabling you to understand whether a stock or a sector is suspicious—whether it is in a bubble and therefore something to be avoided. Finding bubbles requires knowing where to look and what to look for. Bubbleology will help you avoid both streaming into speculative manias and shying away from perfectly good business opportunities. It tells you why you need to avoid both pontificating pundits and overconfident stock analysts. With this unique and forward-thinking book, you can inspect suspicious stocks, accurately discern risk, and diagnose a blossoming bubble before it vanishes along with your money.
Download or read book Stock Market Bubbles written by Nima Pouyan and published by VDM Publishing. This book was released on 2007 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Speculative bubbles have accounted for some of the most interesting periods in financial market history. The phenomenon of speculative bubbles attracted attention of many researchers. Bubbels are widely seen as the cumulation of political, sociological and psychological factors. Indeed a study of the determinants of bubbles delves into branches of behavioural finance and the efficient market theory. Having in mind that bubbles put massive pressure on countries or in some cases the world economy it leads to the question in how far Central Banks can avoid bubbles or cushion them with their monetary instruments. An evaluation of this research question with the support of a structural VAR shows in how far monetary policy should include this area as one of their targets. This topic has also practical implications, since an understanding of the forces forming a bubble and the ability to identify their various phases could be of great use for investors who could theoretically restrain from irrational trading or better evaluate the impacts of monetary policy on the stock market. Besides investors this book targets researchers and readers interested in economics.
