Download or read book Declines in the Volatility of the US Economy written by Bruce T. Grimm and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Secular Volatility Decline of the U S Composite Economic Indicator written by Konstantin A. Kholodilin and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper treats the issue of decreasing volatility of the U.S. economy observed since the mid-1980s. As a measure of volatility the residual variance of a composite economic indicator with Markov switching is used which. Two additional regimes are included capturing the secular shift in volatility. The mixed frequency is allowed for permitting the use of both monthly and quarterly component series. The low-intercept regime probabilities comply to the NBER business cycle dating, while the low-variance regime probabilities indicate the beginning of 1984 as a possible date of the structural break in volatility.

Download or read book Understanding American Economic Decline written by Michael Alan Bernstein and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-07-29 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essays by leading scholars present a novel and systematic analysis of the economic difficulties confronting the United States.

Download or read book The Long and Large Decline in U S Output Volatility written by Olivier J. Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last two U.S. expansions have been unusually long. One view is that this is the result of luck, of an absence of major adverse shocks over the last twenty years. We argue that more is at work, namely a large underlying decline in output volatility. This decline is not a recent development, but rather a steady one, visible already in the 1950s and the 1960s, interrupted in the 1970s and early 1980s, with a return to trend in the late 1980s and the 1990s. The standard deviation of quarterly output growth has declined by a factor of 3 over the period. This is more than enough to account for the increased length of expansions. We reach two other conclusions. First, the trend decrease can be traced to a number of proximate causes, from a decrease in the volatility in government spending early on, to a decrease in consumption and investment volatility throughout the period, to a change in the sign of the correlation between inventory investment and sales in the last decade. Second, there is a strong relation between movements in output volatility and inflation volatility. This association accounts for the interruption of the trend decline in output volatility in the 1970s and early 1980s. Keywords: output volatility, recession, expansion, fluctuations, amplitude.

Download or read book The Decline of the American Economy written by Clement C. Onyemelukwe and published by Tate Publishing & Enterprises. This book was released on 2015-10-20 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I wrote this book to prove to Americans that no matter what their economists and politicians tell them, America is in serious economic decline. What makes the position troubling is that American conventional economics lack a scientific understanding of the structure of the US economy and therefore unable to proffer solutions to the country's growing problems. I have shown how US economic analysis know-how has instead over time degenerated more and more into finance with the unfortunate growing influence of the US Federal Reserve in the US economy. I have shown that in economic science, economic finance is a bubble. I also showed in consequence and unknown to many people how Wall Street constitutes the largest cause of the present structural imbalance and uncompetitivenes of the US economy. "The End of the American Empire" is not intended to be a book that specifically tells how to restore America's largely broken economy, but it is a warning on the country's growing impending collapse. The book is written in as simple everyday language as possible to enable ordinary Americans to understand the depth of the economic crisis and raise their voices to policymakers in Washington to act urgently.

Download or read book Why Has the Economy Become Less Volatile written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Congress is concerned with the health of the U.S. economy, which affects the living standards of all Americans. The 2001 recession was unusually mild and brief by historical standards. At 120 months, the expansion that preceded it had been the longest in U.S. history. Is this a coincidence? A body of research concludes that it is not. Since 1984, the volatility of economic growth has fallen by more than half. Before 1984, the fluctuations in quarterly growth rates were much more extreme from one quarter to the next. After 1984, the changes from quarter to quarter have become much smoother. Economists have coined this phenomenon the "great moderation." There are three competing theories for what has caused it. One theory is that structural changes within the economy have made it less volatile. Changes in the structure of the economy include a smaller manufacturing sector, better inventory management, financial innovations, and deregulation. Most economists have concluded that the shift in production across different sectors since 1984 has not been large enough to account for most of the great moderation. A second theory is that improved policy is the cause of the great moderation. In particular, some economists blame the deep and long recessions of the 1970s and 1980s on bad monetary policy; they credit improved monetary policy for the subsequent improvement in economic performance. They point to the simultaneous decline in the volatility of price inflation as evidence supporting their theory. But better policy is usually credited with creating longer economic expansions and shallower recessions. A smoother business cycle is only part of the great moderation; it can also be seen in terms of lower volatility from one quarter to the next. The third theory is that the great moderation is simply a case of better luck, while the 1970s and early 1980s were filled with bad luck, in the form of a series of economic shocks that barraged the economy. For example, oil shocks and the productivity slowdown coincided with the recessions of the 1970s and 1980s. The "better luck" theory has trouble explaining why the most recent oil shock and other recent economic disruptions did not cause a recession, however. All three explanations have likely played a role in the great moderation, but there is no consensus as to which has been most important. It is difficult to prove conclusively which of the three theories can best explain the great moderation, because the theories have been tested with different economic models that generate results that cannot be directly compared. Since no model has proven to be a reliable predictor of economic activity, it is not clear which model to favor. Even when similar models are used, the results have been open to different interpretations. In essence, much of the great moderation cannot be explained with existing economic tools, which could either be evidence supporting the better luck theory or signify that the real cause has not yet been identified. This report will not be updated.

Download or read book Sourcing the Decline in U S GDP Volatility written by Daniel Jon Vine and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Download or read book What Caused the Decline in U S Business Volatility written by Robert James Gordon (Wirtschaftswissenschaftler.) and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation rate. The primary results of the paper are based on a small three-equation macro model that includes equations for the inflation rate, the nominal Federal Funds rate, and the change in the output gap. The development and analysis of the model goes beyond the previous literature in two directions. First, instead of quantifying the role of shocks-in-general, it decomposes the effect of shocks between a specific set of supply shock variables in the model's inflation equation, and the error term in the output gap equation that is interpreted as representing "IS" shifts or "demand shocks". It concludes that the reduced variance of shocks was the dominant source of reduced business-cycle volatility. Supply shocks accounted for 80 percent of the volatility of inflation before 1984 and demand shocks the remainder. The high level of output volatility before 1984 is accounted for roughly two-thirds by the output errors (demand shocks) and the remainder by supply shocks. The output errors are tied to the paper's initial decomposition of the demand side of the economy, which concludes that three sectors - residential and inventory investment and Federal government spending, account for 50 percent in the reduction in the average standard deviation of real GDP when the 1950-83 and 1984-2004 intervals are compared. The second innovation in this paper is to reinterpret the role of changes in Fed monetary policy. Previous research on Taylor rule reaction functions identifies a shift after 1979 in the Volcker era toward inflation fighting with no concern about output, and then a shift in the Greenspan era to a combination of inflation fighting along with strong countercyclical responses t.

Download or read book Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility written by Valerie Ann Ramey and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book What Caused the Decline in U S Business Cycle Volatility written by Robert James Gordon and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation rate. The primary results of the paper are based on a small three-equation macro model that includes equations for the inflation rate, the nominal Federal Funds rate, and the change in the output gap. The development and analysis of the model goes beyond the previous literature in two directions. First, instead of quantifying the role of shocks-in-general, it decomposes the effect of shocks between a specific set of supply shock variables in the model's inflation equation, and the error term in the output gap equation that is interpreted as representing "IS" shifts or "demand shocks". It concludes that the reduced variance of shocks was the dominant source of reduced business-cycle volatility. Supply shocks accounted for 80 percent of the volatility of inflation before 1984 and demand shocks the remainder. The high level of output volatility before 1984 is accounted for roughly two-thirds by the output errors (demand shocks) and the remainder by supply shocks. The output errors are tied to the paper's initial decomposition of the demand side of the economy, which concludes that three sectors - residential and inventory investment and Federal government spending, account for 50 percent in the reduction in the average standard deviation of real GDP when the 1950-83 and 1984-2004 intervals are compared. The second innovation in this paper is to reinterpret the role of changes in Fed monetary policy. Previous research on Taylor rule reaction functions identifies a shift after 1979 in the Volcker era toward inflation fighting with no concern about output, and then a shift in the Greenspan era to a combination of inflation fighting along with strong countercyclical responses t.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Oil Shocks and TFP written by Sylvain Leduc and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book God Hidden Whereabouts Unknown written by Netanel Miles-Yépez and published by . This book was released on 2021-02-24 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In God Hidden, Whereabouts Unknown, Netanel Miles-Yépez and Rabbi Zalman Schachter-Shalomi offer little-known stories of the famous kabbalist, Isaac Luria, and explore the profound implications of the kabbalistic idea of Tzimtzum, the 'contraction' of God that allows for creation through different paradigms of Jewish belief over the centuries, and look at its function in Judaism and Jewish practice today.

Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2001 written by William C. Brainard and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2001-07-01 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For almost thirty years, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) has provided academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research of current economic issues. Contents include: " An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals" by Homi Kharas, Brian Pinto, and Sergei Ulataov " Does Immigration Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market?" by George Borjas Reports " The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility" by Olivier Blanchard and John Simon " The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment" by E. Philip Howrey Symposium on the U.S. Current Account " Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? Will It Be Sustained?" by Richard N. Cooper " The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit" by Ronald I. McKinnon " A Portfolio View of the U.S. Current Account Deficit" by Jaume Ventura

Download or read book The Decline and Fall of the U S Economy written by William M. Wallace and published by . This book was released on with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly original book puts the crash of 2008 into a broad perspective by digging deeply into the misguided theories behind the policies that allowed it to happen. Who was responsible for the 2008 crash? The Decline and Fall of the U.S. Economy: How Liberals and Conservatives Both Got It Wrong makes it clear that both parties were at faul--and explains how and why. This broad and far-reaching book is the first to analyze the crash from the perspective of evolution, or "punctuated equilibrium." As it explains, the punctuated boom brings on change, the bust leads back to a tightly constrained equilibrium. Both conditions pose risks and both--as William McDonald Wallace argues--can be managed to reduce the odds that economic imbalances will arise. Focusing on the policies that created bubbles in housing, stocks, and more, Wallace pinpoints historical events that gave rise to unrealistic theories and ideologies, showing how they, in turn, gave rise to policies that led to collapse. He explains how Darwin's now-discredited theory of "uniformitarianism" (evolution as a continuous, smooth process) led economists to ignore how evolution actually influences economies and economic behavior, and he shows what we can do so it doesn't happen again.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Oil Shocks and TFP written by Sylvain Leduc and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of the U.S. economy since the mid-1980s is much lower than it was during the prior 20-year period. The proximate causes of the increased stability and their relative importance remain unsettled, but the sharpness of the volatility decline and its timing has led authors such as Taylor (2000) to argue that a sudden shift in monetary policy is a prime candidate. The authors assess this claim using a calibrated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the contribution of monetary policy and exogenous shocks to the postwar volatility pattern for U.S. output. Their principal finding is that the change in monetary policy played a relatively small role in the postwar volatility decline, accounting for 10 to 15 percent of the drop in real output volatility. The model attributes most of the output volatility decline to smaller TFP shocks: oil shocks end up increasing volatility in the post-84 period relative to the pre-79 period. Negative oil shocks do lead to significant downturns in real output in the model, but the pattern of exogenous shocks post-84 is not different enough from the pre-79 pattern to play a meaningful role in lowering output volatility.

Download or read book The Less Volatile U S Economy written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using Bayesian tests for a structural break at an unknown break date, we search for a volatility reduction within the post-war sample for the growth rates of U.S. aggregate and disaggregate real GDP. We find that the growth rate of aggregate real GDP has been less volatile since the early 1980's, and that this volatility reduction is concentrated in the cyclical component of real GDP. The growth rates of many of the broad production sectors of real GDP display similar reductions in volatility, suggesting the aggregate volatility reduction does not have a narrow source. We also find a large volatility reduction in aggregate final sales mirroring that in aggregate real GDP. We contrast this evidence to an existing literature documenting an aggregate volatility reduction that is shared by only one narrow sub-component, the production of durable goods, and is not present in final sales. In addition to the volatility reduction in real GDP, we document structural breaks in the volatility and persistence of inflation and interest rates occurring over a similar time frame as the volatility reduction in real GDP.