Download or read book Controlling Uncertainty written by Magda Osman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-18 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling Uncertainty: Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds reviews and discusses the most current research relating to the ways we can control the uncertain world around us. Features reviews and discussions of the most current research in a number of fields relevant to controlling uncertainty, such as psychology, neuroscience, computer science and engineering Presents a new framework that is designed to integrate a variety of disparate fields of research Represents the first book of its kind to provide a general overview of work related to understanding control

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies written by Adam, Frederic and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 1019 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As effective organizational decision making is a major factor in a company's success, a comprehensive account of current available research on the core concepts of the decision support agenda is in high demand by academicians and professionals. Through 110 authoritative contributions by over 160 of the world's leading experts the Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies presents a critical mass of research on the most up-to-date research on human and computer support of managerial decision making, including discussion on support of operational, tactical, and strategic decisions, human vs. computer system support structure, individual and group decision making, and multi-criteria decision making.

Download or read book Collaborative Decision Making written by Pascale Zaraté and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication presents the latest innovations and achievements of academic communities on Decision Support Systems (DSS). These advances include theory systems, computer-aided methods, algorithms, techniques and applications related to supporting decision making. The aim is to develop approaches for applying information systems technology to increase the effectiveness of decision making in situations where the computer system can support and enhance human judgements in the performance of tasks that have elements which cannot be specified in advance. Also it is intended to improve ways of synthesizing and applying relevant work from resource disciplines to practical implementation of systems that enhance decision support capability. The resource disciplines include: information technology, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, decision theory, organizational theory, operations research and modeling. Researchers come from the Operational Research area but also from Decision Theory, Multicriteria Decision Making methodologies, Fuzzy sets and modeling tools. Based on the introduction of Information and Communication Technologies in organizations, the decisional process is evolving from a mono actor to a multi actor situation in which cooperation is a way to make the decision.

Download or read book Handbook on Decision Support Systems 1 written by Frada Burstein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-22 with total page 886 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision support systems have experienced a marked increase in attention and importance over the past 25 years. The aim of this book is to survey the decision support system (DSS) field – covering both developed territory and emergent frontiers. It will give the reader a clear understanding of fundamental DSS concepts, methods, technologies, trends, and issues. It will serve as a basic reference work for DSS research, practice, and instruction. To achieve these goals, the book has been designed according to a ten-part structure, divided in two volumes with chapters authored by well-known, well-versed scholars and practitioners from the DSS community.

Download or read book Decision Support Systems XIII Decision Support Systems in An Uncertain World The Contribution of Digital Twins written by Shaofeng Liu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-17 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Decision Support Systems Technologies, ICDSST 2023, held during May 30 – June 1, 2023. The EWG-DSS series of International Conference on Decision Support System Technology (ICDSST) is planned to consolidate the tradition of annual events organized by the EWG-DSS in offering a platform for European and international DSS communities, comprising the academic and industrial sectors, to present state-of-the-art DSS research and developments, to discuss current challenges that surround decision-making processes, to exchange ideas about realistic and innovative solutions, and to co-develop potential business opportunities. The main theme of this year was “Decision Support Systems in An Uncertain World: The Contribution of Digital Twins”. The 21 papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 65 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: DSS models, methods, and tools; DSS for business performance and stakeholders; DSS applications for sustainability in health, energy and transportation; and DSS users and successful adoption.

Download or read book Handbook on Decision Support Systems 2 written by Frada Burstein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-22 with total page 827 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the most comprehensive reference work dealing with decision support systems (DSS), this book is essential for the library of every DSS practitioner, researcher, and educator. Written by an international array of DSS luminaries, it contains more than 70 chapters that approach decision support systems from a wide variety of perspectives. These range from classic foundations to cutting-edge thought, informative to provocative, theoretical to practical, historical to futuristic, human to technological, and operational to strategic. The chapters are conveniently organized into ten major sections that novices and experts alike will refer to for years to come.

Download or read book Bridging the Socio technical Gap in Decision Support Systems written by Ana Respício and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents the advances in decision support theory and practice with a focus on bridging the socio-technical gap. This book covers a wide range of topics including: Understanding DM, Design of DSS, Web 2.0 Systems in Decision Support, Business Intelligence and Data Warehousing, Applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and more.

Download or read book Fusing Decision Support Systems Into the Fabric of the Context written by Ana Respício and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of Information Systems has been shifting from an aeimmersion viewAE, which relies on the immersion of information technology (IT) as part of the business environment, to a aefusion viewAE in which IT is fused within the business environment, forming a unified fabric that integrates work and personal life, as well as personal and public information. In the context of this fusion view, decision support systems should achieve a total alignment with the context and the personal preferences of users. The advantage of such a view is an opportunity of seamless integration between enterprise environments and decision support system components. Thus, researchers and practitioners have to address the challenges of dealing with this shift in viewpoint and its consequences for decision making and decision support systems theories and applications. This book presents the latest innovations and advances in decision support systems with a special focus on the fusion view. These achievements will be of interest to all those involved and interested in decision making practice and research, as well as, more generally, in the fusion view of modern information systems.The book covers a wide range of topical themes including a fusion view of business intelligence and data warehousing, applications of multi-criteria decision analysis, intelligent models and technologies for decision making, knowledge management, decision support approaches and models for emergency management, and medical and other specific domains.

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Download or read book Simple Rules written by Donald Norman Sull and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2015 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outlines an approach to high-performance problem solving and decision making that draws on insights from survival guides, pop culture, and other sources.

Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2010 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Download or read book Engineering Effective Decision Support Technologies New Models and Applications written by Power, Daniel J. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2013-05-31 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In modern, information-centric business environments, Decision Making Support Systems (DMSS) present a critical consideration for any organization serious about maintaining competitive advantage. Advances in information systems, knowledge management technologies, and other decision support systems necessitate a critical understanding of the latest trends and research. Engineering Effective Decision Support Technologies: New Models and Applications presents a collection of the latest research in DMSS and applies those theoretical considerations to best practices in the field. This reference includes empirical case studies and an analysis of new models and perspectives in knowledge management, promoting discussion of DMSS strategies among managers, researchers, and students of information science.

Download or read book Problem Solved written by Cheryl Strauss Einhorn and published by Red Wheel/Weiser. This book was released on 2017-04-17 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: *International Book Awards Finalist It can be messy and overwhelming to figure out how to solve thorny problems. Where do you start? How do you know where to look for information and evaluate its quality and bias? How can you feel confident that you are making a careful and thoroughly researched decision? Whether you are deciding between colleges, navigating a career decision, helping your aging parents find the right housing, or expanding your business, Problem Solved will show you how to use the powerful AREA Method to make complex personal and professional decisions with confidence and conviction. Cheryl’s AREA Method coaches you to make smarter, better decisions because it: Recognizes that research is a fundamental part of decision making and breaks down the process into a series of easy-to-follow steps. Solves for problematic mental shortcuts such as bias, judgment, and assumptions. Builds in strategic stops that help you chunk your learning, stay focused, and make your work work for you. Provides a flexible and repeatable process that acts as a feedback loop. Life is filled with uncertainty, but that uncertainty needn’t hobble us. Problem Solved offers a proactive way to work with, and work through, ambiguity to make thoughtful, confident decisions despite our uncertain and volatile world.

Download or read book Information Quality in Information Fusion and Decision Making written by Éloi Bossé and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a contemporary view of the role of information quality in information fusion and decision making, and provides a formal foundation and the implementation strategies required for dealing with insufficient information quality in building fusion systems for decision making. Information fusion is the process of gathering, processing, and combining large amounts of information from multiple and diverse sources, including physical sensors to human intelligence reports and social media. That data and information may be unreliable, of low fidelity, insufficient resolution, contradictory, fake and/or redundant. Sources may provide unverified reports obtained from other sources resulting in correlations and biases. The success of the fusion processing depends on how well knowledge produced by the processing chain represents reality, which in turn depends on how adequate data are, how good and adequate are the models used, and how accurate, appropriate or applicable prior and contextual knowledge is. By offering contributions by leading experts, this book provides an unparalleled understanding of the problem of information quality in information fusion and decision-making for researchers and professionals in the field.

Download or read book Tools for Collaborative Decision Making written by Pascale Zaraté and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-02-20 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision-making has evolved recently thanks to the introduction of information and communication technologies in many organizations, which has led to new kinds of decision-making processes, called “collaborative decision-making”, at the organizational and cognitive levels. This book looks at the development of the decision-making process in organizations. Decision-aiding and its paradigm of problem solving are defined, showing how decision-makers now need to work in a cooperative way. Definitions of cooperation and associated concepts such as collaboration and coordination are given and a framework of cooperative decision support systems is presented, including intelligent DSS, cooperative knowledge-based systems, workflow, group support systems, collaborative engineering, integrating with a collaborative decision-making model in part or being part of global projects. Several models and experimental studies are also included showing that these new processes have to be supported by new types of tools, several of which are described in order to calculate or simulate solutions or global solutions for decision-making modification. Definitions and new trends for these models are given, along with types of systems. Contents 1. Alteration of Decision-Making Processes in Organizations. 2. New Decision-Making Processes. 3. The Need to Cooperate. 4. Cooperative Decision-Making. 5. Activity Support Systems. 6. Cooperative Decision Support Systems: CDSSS. About the Authors Pascale Zaraté is Professor at Toulouse 1 Capitole University, France. She conducts her research at the IRIT Laboratory and is the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Decision Support Systems Technologies. She is co-chair of the European Working Group on DSS and has published several studies and books.

Download or read book The Decision Maker s Playbook written by Simon Mueller and published by Pearson UK. This book was released on 2019-09-09 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Decision Maker's Playbook is an easy-to-use, “how-to” toolkit to improve managers' decision making, using visualisations, relevant examples and actionable checklists that cater to its main target group: analytically interested, busy managers and entrepreneurs. The Decision Maker's Playbook will help readers navigate a complex world. Along the four chapters of the books, it will help you in: 1. Collective Evidence 2. Connecting the Dots 3. Crafting the Approach 4. Complete the Mission The Decision Maker's Playbook is your personal toolbox to help you make better decisions. It offers practical advice to help you understand, analyse and shape your world. As simplified representations of reality, the models portrayed in this book allow us to see patterns, identify relationships, and view the world from different vantage points. They help us understand and break up complex phenomena into tractable pieces. From Unknown unknowns over Fat Tails to Counterfactuals, this book will make lesser known but highly relevant models available for immediate use – in a visual way, supported by applicable case studies and without jargon.

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.