Download or read book Decision Making and Imperfection written by Tatiana V Guy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-02-01 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; · how to decrease imperfection via automated elicitation of DM preferences; · a human's limited willingness to master the available decision-support tools as an additional source of imperfection; · how the decision maker's emotional state influences the rationality; a DM support of edutainment robot based on its system of values and respecting emotions. The book will appeal to anyone interested in the challenging topic of DM theory and its applications.
Download or read book Decision Making Uncertainty Imperfection Deliberation and Scalability written by Tatiana V. Guy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selfish decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efficiently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized medicine; • the effects of personality on risky decision making. The volume is a valuable source for researchers, graduate students and practitioners in machine learning, stochastic control, robotics, and economics, among other fields.
Download or read book Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers written by Tatiana Valentine Guy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-13 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?
Download or read book Decision Theory With Imperfect Information written by Aliev Rafig Aziz and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-08-08 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combined states.This book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.
Download or read book Making Peace with Imperfection written by Elliot D. Cohen and published by New Harbinger Publications. This book was released on 2019-06-01 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demanding perfection in everything you do can create a life of stress, worry, and overload. With this essential self-help guide, you’ll learn to escape the perfectionism trap and cultivate unconditional self-acceptance in an imperfect world. Are you a perfectionist? Do you wear this title like a badge of honor, even though it creates needless stress in your life? Ironically, the stress you create by demanding perfection from yourself and others can actually make it harder to achieve your goals in the long run. It can also alienate you from friends, family, and coworkers. So, how can you escape the perfectionism trap and start living a life of self-compassion? In this informative and practical resource, author Elliot Cohen reveals the eleven types of perfectionism, and gives you the tools and skills you need to move past this distressing mind set before it leads to chronic stress, anxiety, anger, or even depression. Using strategies grounded in evidence-based rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT), you’ll discover how your perfectionism is actually a result of irrational beliefs, learn to challenge these beliefs, and replace negative thoughts with compassionate ones. Being a perfectionist can affect virtually every decision you make, and every action you take—leading to a life of perpetual stress. This book can help you put a stop to the absolutist thinking behind your perfectionism and take steps toward a calmer, more balanced way of being.
Download or read book Geographical Data Imperfection 2 written by Mireille Batton-Hubert and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2024-03-26 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geographical data often contains imperfections associated with insufficient precision, errors or incompleteness. If these imperfections are not identified, taken into account and controlled when using the data, the potential for errors may arise, leading to significant consequences with unforeseeable effects, particularly in a decisionmaking context. It is then necessary to characterize and model this imperfection, and take it into account throughout the process. In the previous volume, we introduced different approaches for defining, representing and processing imperfections in geographic data. Volume 2 will now present a number of concrete applications in a variety of fields, demonstrating the practical application of the methodology to use cases such as agriculture, natural disaster management, mountain hazards, land management and assistance for the visually impaired.
Download or read book Intelligent Medical Decision Support System Based on Imperfect Information written by Krzysztof Dyczkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-01 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses computer-supported medical diagnosis with a particular focus on ovarian tumor diagnosis – since ovarian cancer is difficult to diagnose and has high mortality rates, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. It presents the theoretical foundations (both medical and mathematical) of the intelligent OvaExpert system, which supports decision-making in tumor diagnosis. OvaExpert was created primarily to help gynecologists predict the malignancy of ovarian tumors by applying the existing diagnostic models and using modern methods of computational intelligence that accommodate imprecise and imperfect medical data, both of which are common features of everyday medical practice. The book presents novel methods based on interval-valued fuzzy sets and the theory of their cardinalities.
Download or read book Information Quality in Information Fusion and Decision Making written by Éloi Bossé and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a contemporary view of the role of information quality in information fusion and decision making, and provides a formal foundation and the implementation strategies required for dealing with insufficient information quality in building fusion systems for decision making. Information fusion is the process of gathering, processing, and combining large amounts of information from multiple and diverse sources, including physical sensors to human intelligence reports and social media. That data and information may be unreliable, of low fidelity, insufficient resolution, contradictory, fake and/or redundant. Sources may provide unverified reports obtained from other sources resulting in correlations and biases. The success of the fusion processing depends on how well knowledge produced by the processing chain represents reality, which in turn depends on how adequate data are, how good and adequate are the models used, and how accurate, appropriate or applicable prior and contextual knowledge is. By offering contributions by leading experts, this book provides an unparalleled understanding of the problem of information quality in information fusion and decision-making for researchers and professionals in the field.
Download or read book Neutrosophic modifications of Simplified TOPSIS for Imperfect Information nS TOPSIS written by Azeddine Elhassouny and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, first, the authors simplify the popular TOPSIS method to a lite TOPSIS (S-TOPSIS), that gives the same result as standard version. Second, mapping STOPSIS to Neutrosophics Environment, investigating SVNS, called nS-TOPSIS, to deal with imperfect information in the real decision-making problems. Numerical examples show the contributions of proposed S-TOPSIS method to get the same results with standard TOPSIS with simple way of calculus, and how Neutrosophic environment manage the uncertain information using SVN.
Download or read book The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets Third Edition written by Tito Boeri and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-26 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The leading textbook on imperfect labor markets and the institutions that affect them—now completely updated and expanded Today's labor markets are witnessing seismic changes brought on by such factors as rising self-employment, temporary employment, zero-hour contracts, and the growth of the sharing economy. This fully updated and revised third edition of The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets reflects these and other critical changes in imperfect labor markets, and it has been significantly expanded to discuss topics such as workplace safety, regulations on self-employment, and disability and absence from work. This new edition also features engaging case studies that illustrate key aspects of imperfect labor markets. Authoritative and accessible, this textbook examines the many institutions that affect the behavior of workers and employers in imperfect labor markets. These include minimum wages, employment protection legislation, unemployment benefits, family policies, equal opportunity legislation, collective bargaining, early retirement programs, and education and migration policies. Written for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students, the book carefully defines and measures these institutions to accurately characterize their effects, and discusses how these institutions are being transformed today. Fully updated to reflect today's changing labor markets Significantly expanded to discuss a wealth of new topics, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic Features quantitative examples, new case studies, data sets that enable users to replicate results in the literature, technical appendixes, and end-of-chapter exercises Unique focus on institutions in imperfect labor markets Self-contained chapters cover each of the most important labor-market institutions Instructor's manual available to professors—now with new exercises and solutions
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
Download or read book Geographic Data Imperfection 1 written by Mireille Batton-Hubert and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-08-16 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geomatics is a field of science that has been intimately intertwined with our daily lives for almost 30 years, to the point where we often forget all the challenges it entails. Who does not have a navigation application on their phone or regularly engage with geolocated data? What is more, in the coming decades, the accumulation of geo-referenced data is expected to increase significantly. This book focuses on the notion of the imperfection of geographic data, an important topic in geomatics. It is essential to be able to define and represent the imperfections that are encountered in geographical data. Ignoring these imperfections can lead to many risks, for example in the use of maps which may be rendered inaccurate. It is, therefore, essential to know how to model and treat the different categories of imperfection. A better awareness of these imperfections will improve the analysis and the use of this type of data.
Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
Download or read book Responding to Imperfection written by Sanford Levinson and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1995-01-24 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An increasing number of constitutional theorists, within both the legal academy and university departments of government, are focusing on the conceptual and political problems attached to the notion of constitutional amendment. Amendments are, among other things, recognitions of the imperfection of existing schemes of government. The relative ease or difficulty of amendment has significant implications for the ways that governments respond to problems that call either for new structures of governance or new powers for already established structures. This book brings together essays by leading legal authorities and political scientists on a range of questions from whether the U.S. Constitution is subject to amendment by procedures other than those authorized by Article V to how significant change is conceptualized within classical rabbinic Judaism. Though the essays are concerned for the most part with the American experience, other constitutional traditions are considered as well. The contributors include Bruce Ackerman, Akhil Reed Amar, Mark E. Brandon, David R. Dow, Stephen M. Griffin, Stephen Holmes and Cass R. Sunstein, Sanford Levinson, Donald Lutz, Walter Murphy, Frederick Schauer, John R. Vile, and Noam J. Zohar.
Download or read book Meant for More written by Lisa Sasevich and published by Hay House, Inc. This book was released on 2020-04-14 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An award-winning entrepreneur and business coach outlines an easy-to-follow formula that helps you own your unique value, make more money, have more impact, and get more out of life--all without being pushy or sales-y. Meant for More is a How to Win Friends and Influence People for the modern age. It shows you how to stand out in an increasingly noisy world by simply offering your unique skills and talents and helping others do the same. It offers tangible skills to use in all areas of your life, including work, to increase your success and do good while you're at it. It speaks to people looking to leave the 9-to-5 for more freedom and fulfillment; stay-at-home moms going back to work; young Boomers worried they're too senior (and expensive) to find new jobs; idealistic Gen Xers and Millennials unwilling to toe the company line; and experts in any field who want to cash in on their expertise while making a difference. In Meant for More, an award-winning entrepreneur and business coach outlines the formula for getting the "more" you've been longing for: a proven system to sell yourself and your one-of-a-kind gifts to the people you were meant to help and reap the rewards that come when you stop giving away your gifts for free. The Meant for More Formula helps you upgrade your mind-set, unwrap your unique gifts, claim your value, and make irresistible offers so you can get what you're worth and make the difference you're here to make--in a way that isn't remotely pushy or sales-y. We all long for more: More impact. More success. More fulfillment. More abundance. More freedom. More joy. But it's not necessarily easy to fulfill this longing. We all know someone who clearly has so much to offer the world but who holds back out of fear--fear of failure, or of success; fear of putting herself "out there"; fear of being perceived as pushy or full of himself. Maybe that person is you.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making written by Richard J. Arend and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-03 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.
Download or read book Making Peace with Imperfection written by Elliot D. Cohen and published by . This book was released on 2020-01-24 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demanding perfection from oneself and others can create a life of stress, worry, and a constant sense of overwhelm. In this unique self-help book, author Elliot Cohen reveals the eleven types of perfectionists, and gives readers the tools and skills they need to move past this distressing mindset before it takes over their lives. With this essential guide for perfectionists, readers will learn to cultivate unconditional self-acceptance in an imperfect world.
