Download or read book Decision and Control in Uncertain Resource Systems written by Mangel and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 1984-12-14 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision and Control in Uncertain Resource Systems

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Download or read book Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty written by Thomas L. Vincent and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This vol ume contains the proceedings of the second U. S. -Austral ia workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9-12, 1985. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Department of Science and Technology (Austral ia) under the U. S. -Austral ia Cooperative Science Program. The objective of the workshop was to focus on problems associated with the management of renewable resource systems. A particular emphasis was given to methods for handling uncertain elements whieh are present in any real system. Toward this end, the partiei pants were chosen so that the collective expertise included mathematical modeling, dynamical control/game theory, ecology, and practical management of real systems. Each participant was invited to give an informal presentation in his field of expertise as related to the overall theme. The formal papers (contained in this vo 1 ume) were written after the workshop so that the authors coul d util ize the workshop experience in relating their own work to others. To further encourage this exchange, each paper contained in this volume was reviewed by two other participants who then wrote formal comments. These comments (with author's reply in some cases) are attached to the end of each paper.

Download or read book Uncertain Optimal Control written by Yuanguo Zhu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-29 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces the theory and applications of uncertain optimal control, and establishes two types of models including expected value uncertain optimal control and optimistic value uncertain optimal control. These models, which have continuous-time forms and discrete-time forms, make use of dynamic programming. The uncertain optimal control theory relates to equations of optimality, uncertain bang-bang optimal control, optimal control with switched uncertain system, and optimal control for uncertain system with time-delay. Uncertain optimal control has applications in portfolio selection, engineering, and games. The book is a useful resource for researchers, engineers, and students in the fields of mathematics, cybernetics, operations research, industrial engineering, artificial intelligence, economics, and management science.

Download or read book Natural Resource Economics written by Jon M. Conrad and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1987-11-27 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, Jon Conrad and Colin Clark develop the theory of resource economics.

Download or read book Sustainable Natural Resource Management written by Daniel R. Lynch and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-02 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Natural resources support all human productivity. The sustainable management of natural resources is among the preeminent problems of the current century. Sustainability and the implied professional responsibility start here. This book uses applied mathematics familiar to undergraduate engineers and scientists to examine natural resource management and its role in framing sustainability. Renewable and nonrenewable resources are covered, along with living and sterile resources. Examples and applications are drawn from petroleum, fisheries, and water resources. Each chapter contains problems illustrating the material. Simple programs in commonly available packages (Excel, MATLAB) support the text. The material is a natural prelude to more advanced study in ecology, conservation, and population dynamics, as well as engineering and science. The mathematical description is kept within what an undergraduate student in the sciences or engineering would normally be expected to master for natural systems. The purpose is to allow students to confront natural resource problems early in their preparation.

Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty Towards Optimal Granularity written by Joe Lorkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-01 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.

Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Download or read book Handbook of Environmental and Resource Economics written by Jeroen C. J. M. Van den Bergh and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002-01-01 with total page 1326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This major reference book comprises specially commissioned surveys in environmental and resource economics written by an international team of experts. Authoritative yet accessible, each entry provides a state-of-the-art summary of key areas that will be invaluable to researchers, practitioners and advanced students.

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Download or read book Sustainable Fishery Systems written by Anthony Charles and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive attempt to adopt an 'integrated' interdisciplinary approach to the study of fisheries. Fisheries are discussed as holistic 'systems', with emphasis on their structure, operation and dynamics. The book's interdisciplinary approach is applied to an analysis of problems faced in pursuing 'sustainable fisheries', with emphasis on six dominant themes: sustainability, uncertainty, complexity, conflict, fishing rights and the nature of management. Within this discussion, several major directions in current fishery thinking are explored, notably the precautionary approach, the ecosystem approach, co-management, and robust management for resilient fisheries.

Download or read book Essays on the Economics of Migratory Fish Stocks written by Ragnar Arnason and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following the publication of seminal papers by professors H. S. Gordon in 1954 and A. D. Scott in 1955, active research has led to rapid progress in our understanding of the economics of fisheries. Fishing, however, is a complicated activity involving intricate interactions between man-made fishing capital and naturally produced fish stocks in an inherently dynamic and stochastic setting. Consequently, in spite of significant advances, important sections of fisheries economics remain largely unexplored. One such area is the economics of migratory fish stocks. In 1985, the editors of this volume embarked on a research project concerned with the optimal utilization of common Nordic fish stocks. A fundamental feature of some of the most important of these fish stocks, such as the Atlanto-Scandian herring and the Icelandic capelin, is their migratory behaviour. Not only do the migrations continuously alter the economic conditions for harvesting these species. They also result in the periodical transfer of stock concentrations from one exclusive fisheries jurisdictions to another. It was readily apparent that this behaviour constituted a crucial determinant of the appropriate harvesting pattern of these stocks. More importantly, however, migrations are by no means a unique feature of Nordic fish stocks. In fact, it appears that migratory behaviour is exhibited, albeit in varying degrees, by all species of fish. It therefore stands to reason that migrations constitute an important aspect of the economics of fisheries in general.

Download or read book Risk And Uncertainty In Tribal And Peasant Economies written by Elizabeth Cashdan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is concerned with how people respond to unpredictable variation in environmental and economic conditions (risk) and lack of information (uncertainty) about those risks. The papers focus on tribal and peasant societies. These societies lack many of the formal institutions that we, in the industrialized West, rely on to buffer us against unpredictable resource fluctuations. As the papers in this volume show, people in these societies are directly and profoundly affected by such risks. The contributors to this volume are primarily ecological and economic anthropologists who have in common a familiarity with both the formal theory of behavioral ecology and/or economics and the anthropological literature on tribal and peasant societies.

Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Proceedings of a Symposium on Oak Woodlands written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 756 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Optimization and Economic Models written by Jati Sengupta and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the main applied aspects of stochas tic optimization in economic models. Stochastic processes and control theory are used under optimization to illustrate the various economic implications of optimal decision rules. Unlike econometrics which deals with estimation, this book emphasizes the decision-theoretic basis of uncertainty specified by the stochastic point of view. Methods of ap plied stochastic control using stochastic processes have now reached an exciti~g phase, where several disciplines like systems engineering, operations research and natural reso- ces interact along with the conventional fields such as mathematical economics, finance and control systems. Our objective is to present a critical overview of this broad terrain from a multidisciplinary viewpoint. In this attempt we have at times stressed viewpoints other than the purely economic one. We believe that the economist would find it most profitable to learn from the other disciplines where stochastic optimization has been successfully applied. It is in this spirit that we have discussed in some detail the following major areas: A. Portfolio models in ·:finance, B. Differential games under uncertainty, c. Self-tuning regulators, D. Models of renewable resources under uncertainty, and ix x PREFACE E. Nonparametric methods of efficiency measurement. Stochastic processes are now increasingly used in economic models to understand the various adaptive behavior implicit in the formulation of expectation and its application in decision rules which are optimum in some sense.