Download or read book Handbook for Integrating Risk Analysis in the Economic Analysis of Projects written by Asian Development Bank and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aiming to support the development of a framework for the analysis of risk in project design and economic analysis, this handbook outlines technical approaches to modeling risk. Also summarized is the nature and practice of sensitivity analysis in dealing with uncertain outcomes as well as the principles to consider in typical risk analysis situations sector by sector. Case studies are included to demonstrate the application of quantitative risk analysis using actual Asian Development Bank projects to help improve project design and quality. Handbook users will learn to identify factors that are the key determinants of project outcomes, determine the likelihood of an individual project's returns being unacceptable, and design measures to mitigate the risks arising from the identified key factors.

Download or read book Risk Evaluation and Biological Reference Points for Fisheries Management written by National Research Council Canada and published by NRC Research Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Papers presented: 1) Reference points for fisheries management: the western Canadian experience; 2) Reference points for fisheries management: the eastern Canadian experience; 3) Reference points for fisheries management: the ICES experience; 4) Spawning stock biomass per recruit in fisheries management: foundation and current use; 5) The development of a management procedure for the South African anchovy resource; 6) How much spawning per recruit is enough?; 7) The behaviour of Flow, Fmed and Fhigh in response to variation in parameters used for their estimation; 8) The Barents Sea capelin stock collapse: a lesson to learn; 9) Variance estimates for fisheries assessment: their importance and how best to evaluate them; 10) Evaluating the accuracy of projected catch estimates from sequential population analysis and trawl survey abundance estimates; 11) Bootstrap estimates of ADAPT parameters, their projection in risk analysis and their retrospective patterns; 12) Analytical estimates of reliability for the projected yield from commercial fisheries; 13) Risk evaluation of the 10% harvest rate procedure for capelin in NAFO Division 3L; 14) Using jackknife and Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate forecast models for Atlantic salmon; 15) Monte Carlo evaluation of risks for biological reference points used in New Zealand fishery assessments; 16) A comparison of event free risk analysis to Ricker spawner-recruit simulation: an example with Atlantic menhaden; 17) Choosing a management strategy for stock rebuilding when control is uncertain; 18) Risks and uncertainties in the management of a single-cohort squid fishery: the Falkland Islands Illex fishery as an example; 19) Risks of over- and under-fishing new resources; 20) Estimation of density-dependent natural mortality in British Columbia herring stocks through SSPA and its impact on sustainable harvesting strategies; 21) The comparative performance of production-model and ad hoc tuned VPA based feedback-control management procedures for the stock of Cape hake off the west coast of Africa; 22) A proposal for a threshold stock size and maximum fishing mortality rate; 23) Biological reference points for Canadian Atlantic gadoid stocks; 24) Stochastic locally-optimal harvesting; 25) ITQ based fisheries management; 26) Bioeconomic methods for determining TACs; 27) Management strategies: fixed or variable catch quotas; 28) Bioeconomic impacts of TAC adjustment strategies: a model applied to northern cod; 29) Experimental management programs for two rockfish stocks off British Columbia; 30)A brief overview of the experimental approach to reducing uncertainty in fisheries management; 31) Fisheries management organizations: a study of uncertainty.

Download or read book The Mediterranean region under climate change written by Collectif and published by IRD Éditions. This book was released on 2018-11-19 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has been published by Allenvi (French National Alliance for Environmental Research) to coincide with the 22nd Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP22) in Marrakesh. It is the outcome of work by academic researchers on both sides of the Mediterranean and provides a remarkable scientific review of the mechanisms of climate change and its impacts on the environment, the economy, health and Mediterranean societies. It will also be valuable in developing responses that draw on “scientific evidence” to address the issues of adaptation, resource conservation, solutions and risk prevention. Reflecting the full complexity of the Mediterranean environment, the book is a major scientific contribution to the climate issue, where various scientific considerations converge to break down the boundaries between disciplines.

Download or read book Multistage Stochastic Optimization written by Georg Ch. Pflug and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-11-12 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Multistage stochastic optimization problems appear in many ways in finance, insurance, energy production and trading, logistics and transportation, among other areas. They describe decision situations under uncertainty and with a longer planning horizon. This book contains a comprehensive treatment of today’s state of the art in multistage stochastic optimization. It covers the mathematical backgrounds of approximation theory as well as numerous practical algorithms and examples for the generation and handling of scenario trees. A special emphasis is put on estimation and bounding of the modeling error using novel distance concepts, on time consistency and the role of model ambiguity in the decision process. An extensive treatment of examples from electricity production, asset liability management and inventory control concludes the book.

Download or read book Risk and Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering written by Kok-Kwang Phoon and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Establishes Geotechnical Reliability as Fundamentally Distinct from Structural Reliability Reliability-based design is relatively well established in structural design. Its use is less mature in geotechnical design, but there is a steady progression towards reliability-based design as seen in the inclusion of a new Annex D on "Reliability of Geotechnical Structures" in the third edition of ISO 2394. Reliability-based design can be viewed as a simplified form of risk-based design where different consequences of failure are implicitly covered by the adoption of different target reliability indices. Explicit risk management methodologies are required for large geotechnical systems where soil and loading conditions are too varied to be conveniently slotted into a few reliability classes (typically three) and an associated simple discrete tier of target reliability indices. Provides Realistic Practical Guidance Risk and Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering makes these reliability and risk methodologies more accessible to practitioners and researchers by presenting soil statistics which are necessary inputs, by explaining how calculations can be carried out using simple tools, and by presenting illustrative or actual examples showcasing the benefits and limitations of these methodologies. With contributions from a broad international group of authors, this text: Presents probabilistic models suited for soil parameters Provides easy-to-use Excel-based methods for reliability analysis Connects reliability analysis to design codes (including LRFD and Eurocode 7) Maximizes value of information using Bayesian updating Contains efficient reliability analysis methods Accessible To a Wide Audience Risk and Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering presents all the "need-to-know" information for a non-specialist to calculate and interpret the reliability index and risk of geotechnical structures in a realistic and robust way. It suits engineers, researchers, and students who are interested in the practical outcomes of reliability and risk analyses without going into the intricacies of the underlying mathematical theories.

Download or read book Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs written by Kent Gustavson and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The applied research indicates that, to improve awareness, park education programs should be targeted specifically to the user groups primarily through outreach programs. Further, the Park's management programs should be highlighted, particularly the beneficial, tangible products and services (benefits) the Park provides to each user group... The closer the tie between reef conditions and business earnings, the greater the users' support for reef conservation." Coral reefs are sometimes referred to as "canaries of the sea" because of their early warning ability to show near-shore oceanic stress. Because of their biological diversity, they are also called "rainforests of the sea." Coral reefs are vital to the well being of millions of people. Coral reef managers and government officials trying to save their valuable national resources have turned to research on coral reefs for help. The research presented in this publication merits a great deal of notice because the output is useful for decision support and training tools in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). The work on cost-effectiveness analysis has developed integrated economic and ecological models, relying extensively on fuzzy logic procedures to model impacts and effects of interventions within the reef environment. By contrast, the marine system valuation work provides economic valuations of coral reefs, demonstrating the use of different modeling methods and treating key policy issues within this context. This publication will interest coastal zone experts and managers worldwide

Download or read book Transport Theory written by James J. Duderstadt and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1979 with total page 630 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Problems after each chapter

Download or read book Basics and Trends in Sensitivity Analysis Theory and Practice in R written by Sébastien Da Veiga and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2021-10-14 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of global sensitivity analysis methods and algorithms, including their theoretical basis and mathematical properties. The authors use a practical point of view and real case studies as well as numerous examples, and applications of the different approaches are illustrated throughout using R code to explain their usage and usefulness in practice. Basics and Trends in Sensitivity Analysis: Theory and Practice in R covers a lot of material, including theoretical aspects of Sobol’ indices as well as sampling-based formulas, spectral methods, and metamodel-based approaches for estimation purposes; screening techniques devoted to identifying influential and noninfluential inputs; variance-based measures when model inputs are statistically dependent (and several other approaches that go beyond variance-based sensitivity measures); and a case study in R related to a COVID-19 epidemic model where the full workflow of sensitivity analysis combining several techniques is presented. This book is intended for engineers, researchers, and undergraduate students who use complex numerical models and have an interest in sensitivity analysis techniques and is appropriate for anyone with a solid mathematical background in basic statistical and probability theories who develops and uses numerical models in all scientific and engineering domains.

Download or read book ICREEC 2019 written by Ahmed Belasri and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-10 with total page 659 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights peer reviewed articles from the 1st International Conference on Renewable Energy and Energy Conversion, ICREEC 2019, held at Oran in Algeria. It presents recent advances, brings together researchers and professionals in the area and presents a platform to exchange ideas and establish opportunities for a sustainable future. Topics covered in this proceedings, but not limited to, are photovoltaic systems, bioenergy, laser and plasma technology, fluid and flow for energy, software for energy and impact of energy on the environment.

Download or read book Monte Carlo and Quasi Monte Carlo Methods written by Ronald Cools and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-13 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the refereed proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing that was held at the University of Leuven (Belgium) in April 2014. These biennial conferences are major events for Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo researchers. The proceedings include articles based on invited lectures as well as carefully selected contributed papers on all theoretical aspects and applications of Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods. Offering information on the latest developments in these very active areas, this book is an excellent reference resource for theoreticians and practitioners interested in solving high-dimensional computational problems, arising, in particular, in finance, statistics and computer graphics.

Download or read book Risk Classification in Life Insurance written by J. David Cummins and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research project leading to this book was initiated in the fall of 1979 when the American Council of Life Insurance (ACLI) contacted Dan McGill, chairman of the Wharton School Insurance Department, about conducting a study on risk classification in life insurance. The ACLI was concerned about legislative and judicial activity in this area and its potential effects on the life insurance industry. A meeting was held at the ACLI offices in Washington, D.C., between several members of the ACLI staff and Dan McGill and David Cummins representing the Wharton School insurance department. An agreement was reached that a study would be conducted at Wharton dealing with issues in risk classification. Although the staff of the ACLI suggested directions the study might take, it was agreed that the design and execution of the study would be solely under the control of the researchers. The researchers also retained unrestricted publication rights in the results of the study. This agreement has been honored by the ACLI during the course of the project.

Download or read book Gone with the Headwinds written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-03 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: to come

Download or read book Life Insurance Mathematics written by Hans U. Gerber and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: HaIley's Comet has been prominently displayed in many newspapers during the last few months. For the first time in 76 years it appeared this winter, clearly visible against the nocturnal sky. This is an appropriate occasion to point out the fact that Sir Edmund Halley also constructed the world's first life table in 1693, thus creating the scientific foundation of life insurance. Halley's life table and its successors were viewed as deterministic laws, i. e. the number of deaths in any given group and year was considered to be a weIl defined number that could be calculated by means of a life table. However, in reality this number is random. Thus any mathematical treatment of life insurance will have to rely more and more on prob ability theory. By sponsoring this monograph the Swiss Association of Actuaries wishes to support the "modern" probabilistic view oflife contingencies. We are fortu nate that Professor Gerber, an internationally renowned expert, has assumed the task of writing the monograph. We thank the Springer-Verlag and hope that this monograph will be the first in a successful series of actuarial texts. Hans Bühlmann Zürich, March 1986 President Swiss Association of Actuaries Preface Two major developments have influenced the environment of actuarial math ematics. One is the arrival of powerful and affordable computers; the once important problem of numerical calculation has become almost trivial in many instances.

Download or read book How Big Small are Fiscal Multipliers written by Ethan Ilzetzki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.

Download or read book Quantum Mechanics Volume 3 written by Claude Cohen-Tannoudji and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-12-16 with total page 790 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new, third volume of Cohen-Tannoudji's groundbreaking textbook covers advanced topics of quantum mechanics such as uncorrelated and correlated identical particles, the quantum theory of the electromagnetic field, absorption, emission and scattering of photons by atoms, and quantum entanglement. Written in a didactically unrivalled manner, the textbook explains the fundamental concepts in seven chapters which are elaborated in accompanying complements that provide more detailed discussions, examples and applications. * Completing the success story: the third and final volume of the quantum mechanics textbook written by 1997 Nobel laureate Claude Cohen-Tannoudji and his colleagues Bernard Diu and Franck Laloë * As easily comprehensible as possible: all steps of the physical background and its mathematical representation are spelled out explicitly * Comprehensive: in addition to the fundamentals themselves, the books comes with a wealth of elaborately explained examples and applications Claude Cohen-Tannoudji was a researcher at the Kastler-Brossel laboratory of the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris where he also studied and received his PhD in 1962. In 1973 he became Professor of atomic and molecular physics at the Collège des France. His main research interests were optical pumping, quantum optics and atom-photon interactions. In 1997, Claude Cohen-Tannoudji, together with Steven Chu and William D. Phillips, was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for his research on laser cooling and trapping of neutral atoms. Bernard Diu was Professor at the Denis Diderot University (Paris VII). He was engaged in research at the Laboratory of Theoretical Physics and High Energy where his focus was on strong interactions physics and statistical mechanics. Franck Laloë was a researcher at the Kastler-Brossel laboratory of the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris. His first assignment was with the University of Paris VI before he was appointed to the CNRS, the French National Research Center. His research was focused on optical pumping, statistical mechanics of quantum gases, musical acoustics and the foundations of quantum mechanics.

Download or read book Model Reduction and Approximation written by Peter Benner and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2017-07-06 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many physical, chemical, biomedical, and technical processes can be described by partial differential equations or dynamical systems. In spite of increasing computational capacities, many problems are of such high complexity that they are solvable only with severe simplifications, and the design of efficient numerical schemes remains a central research challenge. This book presents a tutorial introduction to recent developments in mathematical methods for model reduction and approximation of complex systems. Model Reduction and Approximation: Theory and Algorithms contains three parts that cover (I) sampling-based methods, such as the reduced basis method and proper orthogonal decomposition, (II) approximation of high-dimensional problems by low-rank tensor techniques, and (III) system-theoretic methods, such as balanced truncation, interpolatory methods, and the Loewner framework. It is tutorial in nature, giving an accessible introduction to state-of-the-art model reduction and approximation methods. It also covers a wide range of methods drawn from typically distinct communities (sampling based, tensor based, system-theoretic).?? This book is intended for researchers interested in model reduction and approximation, particularly graduate students and young researchers.

Download or read book Alternative Methods of Regression written by David Birkes and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Of related interest. Nonlinear Regression Analysis and its Applications Douglas M. Bates and Donald G. Watts ".an extraordinary presentation of concepts and methods concerning the use and analysis of nonlinear regression models.highly recommend[ed].for anyone needing to use and/or understand issues concerning the analysis of nonlinear regression models." --Technometrics This book provides a balance between theory and practice supported by extensive displays of instructive geometrical constructs. Numerous in-depth case studies illustrate the use of nonlinear regression analysis--with all data sets real. Topics include: multi-response parameter estimation; models defined by systems of differential equations; and improved methods for presenting inferential results of nonlinear analysis. 1988 (0-471-81643-4) 365 pp. Nonlinear Regression G. A. F. Seber and C. J. Wild ".[a] comprehensive and scholarly work.impressively thorough with attention given to every aspect of the modeling process." --Short Book Reviews of the International Statistical Institute In this introduction to nonlinear modeling, the authors examine a wide range of estimation techniques including least squares, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian methods, and discuss some of the problems associated with estimation. The book presents new and important material relating to the concept of curvature and its growing role in statistical inference. It also covers three useful classes of models --growth, compartmental, and multiphase --and emphasizes the limitations involved in fitting these models. Packed with examples and graphs, it offers statisticians, statistical consultants, and statistically oriented research scientists up-to-date access to their fields. 1989 (0-471-61760-1) 768 pp. Mathematical Programming in Statistics T. S. Arthanari and Yadolah Dodge "The authors have achieved their stated intention.in an outstanding and useful manner for both students and researchers.Contains a superb synthesis of references linked to the special topics and formulations by a succinct set of bibliographical notes.Should be in the hands of all system analysts and computer system architects." --Computing Reviews This unique book brings together most of the available results on applications of mathematical programming in statistics, and also develops the necessary statistical and programming theory and methods. 1981 (0-471-08073-X) 413 pp.