Download or read book Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub Saharan African Countries written by Mr.Tetsuya Konuki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-24 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.

Download or read book Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub Saharan Africa written by Victor Duarte Lledo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, seem to be important factors in diminishing procyclicality in the region. The role of institutions is less clear cut: changes in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality.

Download or read book Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Sub Saharan Africa written by César Calderón and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the cyclical aspects of fiscal policy in Sub-Saharan Africa countries during 1970?2014. It compares the cyclical properties of real government consumption in the region with those in other developing regions and high-income countries, and examines whether there has been a change in the cyclical nature of fiscal policy in recent years. The analysis finds that government consumption is procyclical in Sub-Saharan African countries, more so than in other regions, and that accounting for endogeneity increases the degree of cyclicality. The cyclical properties of government spending vary along the business cycle, with the level of cyclicality being larger when the level of real economic activity is above the trend relative to when it is below the trend. Mirroring the pattern in other developing regions, the degree of cyclicality has changed since 2002 in Sub-Saharan Africa, with incipient signs of a shift toward acyclical or more countercyclical policies. The evidence does not suggest that resource wealth or fragility increases the procyclicality of government consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa. Official development assistance is found to exacerbate the procyclical stance of fiscal policy in the region, but the result depends on the relative size of foreign aid received.

Download or read book Exiting From Fragility in sub Saharan Africa written by Corinne Deléchat and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-22 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the role of fiscal policies and institutions in building resilience in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2013, with specific emphasis on a group of twenty-six countries that were deemed fragile in the 1990s. As the drivers of fragility and resilience are closely intertwined, we use GMM estimation as well as a probabilistic framework to address endogeneity and reverse causality. We find that fiscal institutions and fiscal space, namely the capacity to raise tax revenue and contain current spending, as well as lower military spending and, to some extent, higher social expenditure, are significantly and fairly robustly associated with building resilience. Similar conclusions arise from a study of the progression of a group of seven out of the twenty-six sub- Saharan African countries that managed to build resilience after years of civil unrest and/or violent conflict. These findings suggest relatively high returns to focusing on building sound fiscal institutions in fragile states. The international community can help this process through policy advice, technical assistance, and training on tax administration and budget reforms.

Download or read book The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region written by Mr.Gaston K. Mpatswe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines fiscal cyclicality in the CEMAC region during 1980-2008. The issue has attracted very little empirical interest but is important if fiscal policies are to play a role in mitigating external shocks that exacerbate economic cycles across the region. We assess whether fiscal policies across these six countries have been procyclical using panel data to elaborate our analysis. Like in other sub-Saharan countries, total public expenditure in the CEMAC is found to be strongly procyclical. This is most pronounced for public investment, which overreacts to output growth with elasticity above 1. We further find that institutional weaknesses and poor governance partly explain this behavior. In contrast, the existence of an IMF-supported program can be a counterbalancing influence in attenuating this bias.

Download or read book The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-15 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.

Download or read book Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Sub Saharan Africa written by Cesar Calderon and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the cyclical aspects of fiscal policy in Sub-Saharan Africa countries during 1970-2014. It compares the cyclical properties of real government consumption in the region with those in other developing regions and high-income countries, and examines whether there has been a change in the cyclical nature of fiscal policy in recent years. The analysis finds that government consumption is procyclical in Sub-Saharan African countries, more so than in other regions, and that accounting for endogeneity increases the degree of cyclicality. The cyclical properties of government spending vary along the business cycle, with the level of cyclicality being larger when the level of real economic activity is above the trend relative to when it is below the trend. Mirroring the pattern in other developing regions, the degree of cyclicality has changed since 2002 in Sub-Saharan Africa, with incipient signs of a shift toward acyclical or more countercyclical policies. The evidence does not suggest that resource wealth or fragility increases the procyclicality of government consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa. Official development assistance is found to exacerbate the procyclical stance of fiscal policy in the region, but the result depends on the relative size of foreign aid received.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Sub Saharan Africa in Response to the Impact of the Global Crisis written by Norbert Funke and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2009-05-14 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub Saharan Africa s Business Cycle Patterns written by Oumar Diallo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-14 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.

Download or read book Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability Evidence from Sub Saharan Africa written by Alfredo Baldini and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents a model of fiscal dominance with borrowing constraints, and provides evidence for a large number of sub-Saharan African countries on the relative importance of fiscal and monetary determinants of inflation. Based on the dynamic response of inflation to different shocks, including nominal public debt, results show that a number of SSA countries were characterized throughout the period 1980-2005 either by chronic fiscally dominant regimes, with weak or no response of primary surpluses to public debt; or by a consistent adoption of a monetary dominant regime. However, a number of countries were also characterized by lack of a clear monetary and fiscal policy regime. The study also finds that changes in nominal public debt affect price variability via aggregate demand effects, suggesting that fiscal outcomes could be a direct source of inflation variability, as predicted by the fiscal theory of the price level.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy During Business Cycles in Developing Countries the Case of Africa written by Willi Leibfritz and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Fiscal Rules and the Pro cyclicality of Public Investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: West African Economic and Monetary Union arrangements have been instrumental in helping member countries maintain low inflation. However, a lesser-known characteristic of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, with possible implications for economic growth, is the high exposure to shocks and the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy associated with these arrangements. Evidence from a panel of 80 low-income and lower middle-income countries over the period 1995-2012 suggests that, in the Union, both public investment and current public expenditure are more pro-cyclical than they are in other countries. In particular, public investment contracts more in "bad times" than it increases in "good times" in order to absorb negative shocks to the budget in the context of strict fiscal convergence criteria. The asymmetric response of public investment to shocks could thus be a reason for the relatively low levels of infrastructure in the Union. Comparisons with earlier periods suggest that public investment has become pro-cyclical since the introduction of the fiscal convergence criteria in 1994. Moreover, the shocks that affect Union member countries appear to be highly idiosyncratic and thus difficult to mitigate by the Union's common monetary policy. The pro-cyclicality of public expenditure and the high asymmetry of shocks that affect Union member countries justify exploring options for greater counter-cyclicality of rules-based fiscal frameworks and for risk-sharing.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub Saharan Africa written by Victor Duarte Lledo and published by . This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates economic, political, and institutional constraints to fiscal policy implementation in sub-saharan Africa. We find that planned fiscal adjustments or expansions are less likely to be implemented the larger they are, the more inaccurate the growth forecasts they are based on, the more fragile the regulatory system in the country, and the weaker the institutions framing the design, approval, and execution of the budget. The findings support ongoing efforts in the region to improve the quality and timeliness of economic data; enhance forecasting capacity; adopt realistic fiscal plans; and strengthen governance, budgetary institutions, and public financial management procedures.

Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Hippolyte Fofack and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of the proliferation of exceptionally large fiscal stimuli to ward off the recession triggered by the 2008 global economic and financial crisis in most advanced economies, this paper revisits the fiscal adjustment and growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using transfer functions, it quantifies expected losses in terms of aggregate output largely attributed to a systematic implementation of pro-cyclical expenditure switching and reducing policies to achieve low deficit targets throughout the decades of adjustments. The results consistently highlight a much higher predicted aggregate output under the hypothesized counter-cyclical fiscal expansion option. This consistent outcome suggests that the output gap would have been significantly smaller in the region if countries had drawn on stop-and-go policies of fiscal expansion to sustainably raise the stock of capital investments.

Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Hippolyte Fofack and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Monetary Policy in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mr.Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary policy in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) has undergone an important transformation in recent decades. With the advent of sustained growth and generally stable fiscal policies in much of the region, many countries are now working to modernize their monetary policy frameworks. This book provides a comprehensive view of the many monetary policy issues in sub-Saharan Africa. It reflects an effort to fill a gap in the current literature and collects research by staff of the IMF and other institutions, as well as from policymakers within central banks in SSA. The chapters explore the many dimensions of monetary policy in SSA. This volume will serve as an important reference for academics and policymakers and will inform future policy debates. The book highlights two points, one policy-related and the other methodological. Although these countries differ in important ways from advanced and emerging market countries, the monetary policy issues they face are not fundamentally different from those faced elsewhere. Policy aims to provide an anchor for inflation over the medium term while also responding to external and domestic shocks. Likewise, Sub-Saharan African countries are in the process of modernizing their policy frameworks, by clarifying their objectives and improving their operational frameworks, making policy increasingly forward-looking and improving their forecasting and analytical capacity.

Download or read book Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub Saharan African Countries written by Mr.Tetsuya Konuki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-24 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.