Download or read book Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil Exporting Countries written by Stephen Snudden and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on the source of oil price fluctuations and the oil exporters’ structural characteristics. The output-inflation tradeoff is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation. Fiscal rules are best when coordinated with inflation targeting monetary policy, but are still desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil exporting Countries written by Aasim M. Husain and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

Download or read book Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil Exporting Countries written by Stephen Snudden and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on the source of oil price fluctuations and the oil exporters’ structural characteristics. The output-inflation tradeoff is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation. Fiscal rules are best when coordinated with inflation targeting monetary policy, but are still desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.

Download or read book Oil Shocks and the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in a Developing Oil Exporting Economy written by Alexandre Ernesto da Costa Antonio and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy, its evolution over time and the effectiveness of fiscal rules in Angola, the second oil producer in Africa. Existing literature suggests that fiscal policy in commodity-exporting economies has become less pro-cyclical in the last decade, or at least has remained unchanged. Oil-exporting economies seem to be the exception to this pattern, and pro-cyclicality has increased even when fiscal rules to prevent it have been introduced. However, available evidence for oil-producers is based in findings for developed economies, such as, Norway, and not developing economies, despite their share of Global oil production. Our paper contributes to bridge this gap by assessing cyclicality, its time path, and the role of fiscal institutions that aim to reduce it, in a developing oil-rich economy, Angola. For this purpose we use time-varying techniques (rolling cointegration and VECM) to analyse previously unpublished data for the period 2004M1-2014M12. Our findings suggest that fiscal policy tends to be pro-cyclical to oil-shocks and that this has intensified after the 2007/8 Global Crisis. Further, we find that adjustment to long-run budget imbalances are achieved through revenue, rather than spending. Finally, we find that fiscal rules, such as, the Oil Price Differential Account or the Sovereign Wealth Fund have not been effective to tame this pro-cyclicality.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle written by Mauricio Villafuerte and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Middle East and Central Asia Is the Current Crisis Different written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the past four decades and explores whether the response during the current global economic crisis is different in 2009. Across a sample of 28 countries, we find that fiscal policy has typically amplified the business cycles and that it has been more procyclical in good times than in bad times. However, the response to the current crisis has differed from the past in that about half of the countries responded countercyclically in 2009. Going forward, the fiscal space during downturns varies widely across countries, depending on the level of debt, access to capital markets, and natural resource wealth. Not surprisingly, the oil exporters have more fiscal room than oil importers, although there are some oil importers that still have room to respond countercyclically in bad times.

Download or read book The Role of Non oil Revenues in the Fiscal Policy of Oil Exporting Countries written by George A. Mackenzie and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy and Economic Management in Oil Exporting Countries written by Alan Gelb and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite massive oil rent ...

Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Download or read book Oil Prices Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Oil exporting Countries written by Amany A. El-Anshasy and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.

Download or read book Riding the Roller Coaster written by Pablo Lopez Murphy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes recent fiscal policies of nonrenewable resource exporting countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in the context of sharp swings in resource prices. Fiscal policies were predominantly procyclical during the boom period 2003-08 but to significantly differing degrees within the sample. Countries that pursued more conservative fiscal policies during the boom were then able to implement countercyclical fiscal policies during the downturn; moreover, they reduced or maintained their fiscal vulnerability to resource shocks, while their long-term fiscal sustainability positions improved or were broadly unchanged. However, these dimensions of fiscal policy did not seem to be linked to fiscal rules or resource funds, as countries with such institutions displayed a broad range of fiscal responses to the recent cycle.

Download or read book Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub Saharan African Countries written by Mr.Tetsuya Konuki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-24 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia and the UK written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.