Download or read book Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub Saharan African Countries written by Mr.Tetsuya Konuki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-24 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.
Download or read book Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub Saharan Africa written by Victor Duarte Lledo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, seem to be important factors in diminishing procyclicality in the region. The role of institutions is less clear cut: changes in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality.
Download or read book Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Sub Saharan Africa written by César Calderón and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the cyclical aspects of fiscal policy in Sub-Saharan Africa countries during 1970?2014. It compares the cyclical properties of real government consumption in the region with those in other developing regions and high-income countries, and examines whether there has been a change in the cyclical nature of fiscal policy in recent years. The analysis finds that government consumption is procyclical in Sub-Saharan African countries, more so than in other regions, and that accounting for endogeneity increases the degree of cyclicality. The cyclical properties of government spending vary along the business cycle, with the level of cyclicality being larger when the level of real economic activity is above the trend relative to when it is below the trend. Mirroring the pattern in other developing regions, the degree of cyclicality has changed since 2002 in Sub-Saharan Africa, with incipient signs of a shift toward acyclical or more countercyclical policies. The evidence does not suggest that resource wealth or fragility increases the procyclicality of government consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa. Official development assistance is found to exacerbate the procyclical stance of fiscal policy in the region, but the result depends on the relative size of foreign aid received.
Download or read book The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region written by Mr.Gaston K. Mpatswe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines fiscal cyclicality in the CEMAC region during 1980-2008. The issue has attracted very little empirical interest but is important if fiscal policies are to play a role in mitigating external shocks that exacerbate economic cycles across the region. We assess whether fiscal policies across these six countries have been procyclical using panel data to elaborate our analysis. Like in other sub-Saharan countries, total public expenditure in the CEMAC is found to be strongly procyclical. This is most pronounced for public investment, which overreacts to output growth with elasticity above 1. We further find that institutional weaknesses and poor governance partly explain this behavior. In contrast, the existence of an IMF-supported program can be a counterbalancing influence in attenuating this bias.
Download or read book Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Sub Saharan Africa written by Cesar Calderon and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the cyclical aspects of fiscal policy in Sub-Saharan Africa countries during 1970-2014. It compares the cyclical properties of real government consumption in the region with those in other developing regions and high-income countries, and examines whether there has been a change in the cyclical nature of fiscal policy in recent years. The analysis finds that government consumption is procyclical in Sub-Saharan African countries, more so than in other regions, and that accounting for endogeneity increases the degree of cyclicality. The cyclical properties of government spending vary along the business cycle, with the level of cyclicality being larger when the level of real economic activity is above the trend relative to when it is below the trend. Mirroring the pattern in other developing regions, the degree of cyclicality has changed since 2002 in Sub-Saharan Africa, with incipient signs of a shift toward acyclical or more countercyclical policies. The evidence does not suggest that resource wealth or fragility increases the procyclicality of government consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa. Official development assistance is found to exacerbate the procyclical stance of fiscal policy in the region, but the result depends on the relative size of foreign aid received.
Download or read book The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-15 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Sub Saharan Africa in Response to the Impact of the Global Crisis written by Norbert Funke and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2009-05-14 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book South Africa written by Nir Klein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study looks at the cyclical behavior of the markups and assesses its impact on inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that the aggregate level of the private sector's markup is relatively high, thus pointing to the lack of strong competition in South Africa's product markets. Additionally, the results suggest that the markups tend to move in a countercyclical manner, with a short-term positive impact on inflation. This implies that the countercyclical pattern of the markups is one factor among others that contribute to the relatively weak output gap-inflation co-movement. In the context of South Africa's inflation targeting framework, the counter-cyclical markups may also generate an asymmetric response of monetary policy to the fluctuations in economic activity.
Download or read book On the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in Egypt written by Israa A. El Husseiny and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimal fiscal policy is expected to behave in a countercyclical manner to stabilize economies during business cycles. In particular, the public expenditure-to-GDP ratio should go up during recessions and down during expansions, while the public revenues-to-GDP ratio should move in the opposite direction. As a result, the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio should rise during recessions and decline during expansions. While this behavior of fiscal policy is common in most developed countries, the situation is different in developing nations where, due to several financial and institutional factors, a procyclical policy is more common. Using a time series dataset for the Egyptian economy during the period (1981/1982-2013/2014), this study provides empirical evidence that Egypt has not been able to conduct a countercyclical fiscal policy. In addition, the analysis provided by this study indicates that while several financial and credit factors might contribute to this behavior of fiscal policy in Egypt, the institutional and political economy factors seem to have the dominant role in this regard.
Download or read book Fiscal Policy During Business Cycles in Developing Countries the Case of Africa written by Willi Leibfritz and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation and Activity Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Download or read book Public Policies and Private Savings and Investment in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-02-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses empirically the role of public policies in stimulating private savings and investment in sub-Saharan African countries, based on data for the period 1986-92. The main findings of the analysis are as follows: (i) policies effective in stimulating private savings and investment include those that keep the rate of inflation low, reduce macroeconomic uncertainty, promote financial deepening, and lower the external debt burden; (ii) measures that promote structural reforms and reduce the budget deficit (without lowering government investment) help to raise private investment; and (iii) declines in government savings are only partially offset by increases in private savings.
Download or read book Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical written by Alberto Alesina and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many countries, especially developing ones, follow procyclical fiscal polices, namely spending goes up (taxes go down) in booms and spending goes down (taxes go up) in recessions. We provide an explanation for this suboptimal fiscal policy based upon political distortions and incentives for less-than-benevolent government to appropriate rents. Voters have incentives similar to the "starving the Leviathan" classic argument, and demand more public goods or fewer taxes to prevent governments from appropriating rents when the economy is doing well. We test this argument against more traditional explanations based purely on borrowing constraints, with a reasonable amount of success.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook October 2016 Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-25 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook October 2017 Sub Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-27 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook April 2017 Sub Saharan Africa written by Céline Allard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-09 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth momentum in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile, marking a break from the rapid expansion witnessed since the turn of the millennium. 2016 was a difficult year for many countries, with regional growth dipping to 1.4 percent—the lowest level of growth in more than two decades. Most oil exporters were in recession, and conditions in other resource-intensive countries remained difficult. Other nonresource-intensive countries however, continued to grow robustly. A modest recovery in growth of about 2.6 percent is expected in 2017, but this falls short of past trends and is too low to put sub-Saharan Africa back on a path of rising living standards. While sub-Saharan Africa remains a region with tremendous growth potential, the deterioration in the overall outlook partly reflects insufficient policy adjustment. In that context, and to reap this potential, strong and sound domestic policy measures are needed to restart the growth engine.
Download or read book Second Generation Fiscal Rules written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog
