Download or read book CRYPTOCURRENCY PRICE ANALYSIS PREDICTION AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON written by Vivian Siahaan and published by BALIGE PUBLISHING. This book was released on 2023-07-21 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this project, we will be conducting a comprehensive analysis, prediction, and forecasting of cryptocurrency prices using machine learning with Python. The dataset we will be working with contains historical cryptocurrency price data, and our main objective is to build models that can accurately predict future price movements and daily returns. The first step of the project involves exploring the dataset to gain insights into the structure and contents of the data. We will examine the columns, data types, and any missing values present. After that, we will preprocess the data, handling any missing values and converting data types as needed. This will ensure that our data is clean and ready for analysis. Next, we will proceed with visualizing the dataset to understand the trends and patterns in cryptocurrency prices over time. We will create line plots, box plot, violin plot, and other visualizations to study price movements, trading volumes, and volatility across different cryptocurrencies. These visualizations will help us identify any apparent trends or seasonality in the data. To gain a deeper understanding of the time-series nature of the data, we will conduct time-series analysis year-wise and month-wise. This analysis will involve decomposing the time-series into its individual components like trend, seasonality, and noise. Additionally, we will look for patterns in price movements during specific months to identify any recurring seasonal effects. To enhance our predictions, we will also incorporate technical indicators into our analysis. Technical indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), provide valuable information about price momentum and market trends. These indicators can be used as additional features in our machine learning models. With a strong foundation of data exploration, visualization, and time-series analysis, we will now move on to building machine learning models for forecasting the closing price of cryptocurrencies. We will utilize algorithms like Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression, Decision Tree Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors Regression, Adaboost Regression, Gradient Boosting Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting Regression, Light Gradient Boosting Regression, Catboost Regression, Multi-Layer Perceptron Regression, Lasso Regression, and Ridge Regression to make forecasting. By training our models on historical data, they will learn to recognize patterns and make predictions for future price movements. As part of our machine learning efforts, we will also develop models for predicting daily returns of cryptocurrencies. Daily returns are essential indicators for investors and traders, as they reflect the percentage change in price from one day to the next. By using historical price data and technical indicators as input features, we can build models that forecast daily returns accurately. Throughout the project, we will perform extensive hyperparameter tuning using techniques like Grid Search and Random Search. This will help us identify the best combinations of hyperparameters for each model, optimizing their performance. To validate the accuracy and robustness of our models, we will use various evaluation metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. These metrics will provide insights into the model's ability to predict cryptocurrency prices accurately. In conclusion, this project on cryptocurrency price analysis, prediction, and forecasting is a comprehensive exploration of using machine learning with Python to analyze and predict cryptocurrency price movements. By leveraging data visualization, time-series analysis, technical indicators, and machine learning algorithms, we aim to build accurate and reliable models for predicting future price movements and daily returns. The project's outcomes will be valuable for investors, traders, and analysts looking to make informed decisions in the highly volatile and dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. Through rigorous evaluation and validation, we strive to create robust models that can contribute to a better understanding of cryptocurrency market dynamics and support data-driven decision-making.

Download or read book STOCK PRICE ANALYSIS PREDICTION AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING AND DEEP LEARNING WITH PYTHON written by Vivian Siahaan and published by BALIGE PUBLISHING. This book was released on 2022-05-27 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dataset is a playground for fundamental and technical analysis. It is said that 30% of traffic on stocks is already generated by machines, can trading be fully automated? If not, there is still a lot to learn from historical data. The dataset consists of data spans from 2010 to the end 2016, for companies new on stock market date range is shorter. To perform forecasting based on regression adjusted closing price of gold, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, MLP regression, and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory) regression. The machine learning models used predict gold daily returns as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, Gaussian Mixture Model classifier, and Extra Trees classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, and scalability of the model.

Download or read book FOUR PROJECTS PREDICTION AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON written by Vivian Siahaan and published by BALIGE PUBLISHING. This book was released on 2022-05-25 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PROJECT 1: GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON The challenge of this project is to accurately predict the future adjusted closing price of Gold ETF across a given period of time in the future. The problem is a regression problem, because the output value which is the adjusted closing price in this project is continuous value. Data for this study is collected from November 18th 2011 to January 1st 2019 from various sources. The data has 1718 rows in total and 80 columns in total. Data for attributes, such as Oil Price, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, Dow Jones Index US Bond rates (10 years), Euro USD exchange rates, prices of precious metals Silver and Platinum and other metals such as Palladium and Rhodium, prices of US Dollar Index, Eldorado Gold Corporation and Gold Miners ETF were gathered. The dataset has 1718 rows in total and 80 columns in total. Data for attributes, such as Oil Price, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, Dow Jones Index US Bond rates (10 years), Euro USD exchange rates, prices of precious metals Silver and Platinum and other metals such as Palladium and Rhodium, prices of US Dollar Index, Eldorado Gold Corporation and Gold Miners ETF were gathered. To perform forecasting based on regression adjusted closing price of gold, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. The machine learning models used predict gold daily returns as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and Extra Trees classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, and scalability of the model. PROJECT 2: WIND POWER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON Renewable energy remains one of the most important topics for a sustainable future. Wind, being a perennial source of power, could be utilized to satisfy our power requirements. With the rise of wind farms, wind power forecasting would prove to be quite useful. It contains various weather, turbine and rotor features. Data has been recorded from January 2018 till March 2020. Readings have been recorded at a 10-minute interval. A longterm wind forecasting technique is thus required. The attributes in the dataset are as follows: ActivePower, AmbientTemperature, BearingShaftTemperature, Blade1PitchAngle, Blade2PitchAngle, Blade3PitchAngle, ControlBoxTemperature, GearboxBearingTemperature, GearboxOilTemperature, GeneratorRP, GeneratorWinding1Temperature, GeneratorWinding2Temperature, HubTemperature, MainBoxTemperature, NacellePosition, ReactivePower, RotorRPM, TurbineStatus, WTG, WindDirection, and WindSpeed. To perform forecasting based on regression active power, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. To perform clustering, you will use K-Means algorithm. The machine learning models used predict categorized active power as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 3: MACHINE LEARNING FOR CONCRETE COMPRESSIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON Concrete is the most important material in civil engineering. The concrete compressive strength is a highly nonlinear function of age and ingredients. These ingredients include cement, blast furnace slag, fly ash, water, superplasticizer, coarse aggregate, and fine aggregate. The actual concrete compressive strength (MPa) for a given mixture under a specific age (days) was determined from laboratory. This dataset is in raw form (not scaled). There are 1030 observations, 9 attributes, 8 quantitative input variables, and 1 quantitative output variable in dataset. The attributes in the dataset are as follows: Cement (component 1); Blast Furnace Slag (component 2); Fly Ash (component 3); Water (component 4); Superplasticizer (component 5); Coarse Aggregate; Fine Aggregate (component 7); Age; and Concrete compressive strength. To perform regression on concrete compressive strength, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. To perform clustering, you will use K-Means algorithm. The machine learning models used predict clusters as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 4: DATA SCIENCE FOR SALES ANALYSIS, FORECASTING, CLUSTERING, AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON The dataset used in this project is from Walmart which is a renowned retail corporation that operates a chain of hypermarkets. Walmart has provided a data combining of 45 stores including store information and monthly sales. The data is provided on weekly basis. Walmart tries to find the impact of holidays on the sales of store. For which it has included four holidays’ weeks into the dataset which are Christmas, Thanksgiving, Super bowl, Labor Day. In this project, you are going to analyze, forecast weekly sales, perform clustering, and predict the resulting clusters. The dataset covers sales from 2010-02-05 to 2012-11-01. Following are the attributes in the dataset: Store - the store number; Date - the week of sales; Weekly_Sales - sales for the given store; Holiday_Flag - whether the week is a special holiday week 1 – Holiday week 0 – Non-holiday week; Temperature - Temperature on the day of sale; Fuel_Price - Cost of fuel in the region; CPI – Prevailing consumer price index; and Unemployment - Prevailing unemployment rate. To perform regression on weekly sales, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. To perform clustering, you will use K-Means algorithm. The machine learning models used predict clusters as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy.

Download or read book Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading written by Stefan Jansen and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2020-07-31 with total page 822 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.

Download or read book Forecasting principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Download or read book Financial Data Resampling for Machine Learning Based Trading written by Tomé Almeida Borges and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-22 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a system that combines the expertise of four algorithms, namely Gradient Tree Boosting, Logistic Regression, Random Forest and Support Vector Classifier to trade with several cryptocurrencies. A new method for resampling financial data is presented as alternative to the classical time sampled data commonly used in financial market trading. The new resampling method uses a closing value threshold to resample the data creating a signal better suited for financial trading, thus achieving higher returns without increased risk. The performance of the algorithm with the new resampling method and the classical time sampled data are compared and the advantages of using the system developed in this work are highlighted.

Download or read book Modeling and Prediction of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning Techniques written by Alireza Ashayer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the introduction of Bitcoin in the year 2008 as the first practical decentralized cryptocurrency, the interest in cryptocurrencies and their underlying technology, Blockchain, has skyrocketed. Their promise of security, anonymity, and lack of a central controlling authority make them ideal for users who value their privacy. Academic research on machine learning, Blockchain technology, and their intersection have increased significantly in recent years. Specifically, one of the interest areas for researchers is the possibility of predicting the future prices of these cryptocurrencies using supervised machine learning techniques. In this thesis, we investigate their ability to make one day ahead price prediction of several popular cryptocurrencies using five widely used time-series prediction models. These models are designed by optimizing model parameters, such as activation functions, before settling on the final models presented in this thesis. Finally, we report the performance of each time-series prediction model measured by its mean squared error and accuracy in price movement direction prediction.

Download or read book Trends in Data Engineering Methods for Intelligent Systems written by Jude Hemanth and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-05 with total page 797 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book briefly covers internationally contributed chapters with artificial intelligence and applied mathematics-oriented background-details. Nowadays, the world is under attack of intelligent systems covering all fields to make them practical and meaningful for humans. In this sense, this edited book provides the most recent research on use of engineering capabilities for developing intelligent systems. The chapters are a collection from the works presented at the 2nd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Applied Mathematics in Engineering held within 09-10-11 October 2020 at the Antalya, Manavgat (Turkey). The target audience of the book covers scientists, experts, M.Sc. and Ph.D. students, post-docs, and anyone interested in intelligent systems and their usage in different problem domains. The book is suitable to be used as a reference work in the courses associated with artificial intelligence and applied mathematics.

Download or read book Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python written by Manu Joseph and published by Packt Publishing Ltd. This book was released on 2022-11-24 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Build real-world time series forecasting systems which scale to millions of time series by applying modern machine learning and deep learning concepts Key Features Explore industry-tested machine learning techniques used to forecast millions of time series Get started with the revolutionary paradigm of global forecasting models Get to grips with new concepts by applying them to real-world datasets of energy forecasting Book DescriptionWe live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.What you will learn Find out how to manipulate and visualize time series data like a pro Set strong baselines with popular models such as ARIMA Discover how time series forecasting can be cast as regression Engineer features for machine learning models for forecasting Explore the exciting world of ensembling and stacking models Get to grips with the global forecasting paradigm Understand and apply state-of-the-art DL models such as N-BEATS and Autoformer Explore multi-step forecasting and cross-validation strategies Who this book is for The book is for data scientists, data analysts, machine learning engineers, and Python developers who want to build industry-ready time series models. Since the book explains most concepts from the ground up, basic proficiency in Python is all you need. Prior understanding of machine learning or forecasting will help speed up your learning. For experienced machine learning and forecasting practitioners, this book has a lot to offer in terms of advanced techniques and traversing the latest research frontiers in time series forecasting.

Download or read book BITCOIN ANALYSIS VISUALIZATION FORECASTING AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON GUI written by Vivian Siahaan and published by BALIGE PUBLISHING. This book was released on 2022-06-04 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bitcoin is a digital currency created in January 2009. It follows the ideas set out in a whitepaper by the mysterious and pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto.1 The identity of the person or persons who created the technology is still a mystery. Bitcoin offers the promise of lower transaction fees than traditional online payment mechanisms and, unlike government-issued currencies, it is operated by a decentralized authority. This dataset provides the history of daily prices of Bitcoin. The data starts from 17-Sep-2014 and is updated till 09-July-2021. It contains 2747 rows and 7 columns. The columns in the dataset are Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Adj Close, and Volume. In this project, you will involve technical indicators such as daily returns, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Simple Moving Average (SMA), lower and upper bands, and standard deviation. To perform forecasting based on regression on Adj Close price of Bitcoin, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, MLP regression, Lasso regression, and Ridge regression. The machine learning models used predict Bitcoin daily returns as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and Extra Trees classifier. Finally, you will develop GUI to plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, and scalability of the model.

Download or read book Learning Deep Architectures for AI written by Yoshua Bengio and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2009 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical results suggest that in order to learn the kind of complicated functions that can represent high-level abstractions (e.g. in vision, language, and other AI-level tasks), one may need deep architectures. Deep architectures are composed of multiple levels of non-linear operations, such as in neural nets with many hidden layers or in complicated propositional formulae re-using many sub-formulae. Searching the parameter space of deep architectures is a difficult task, but learning algorithms such as those for Deep Belief Networks have recently been proposed to tackle this problem with notable success, beating the state-of-the-art in certain areas. This paper discusses the motivations and principles regarding learning algorithms for deep architectures, in particular those exploiting as building blocks unsupervised learning of single-layer models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines, used to construct deeper models such as Deep Belief Networks.

Download or read book Advanced Technologies Systems and Applications VII written by Naida Ademović and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-10-15 with total page 789 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a collection of articles on the advanced and interdisciplinary application of innovative technologies. Scientific investigations and results of the conference 13th Days of Bosnian-Herzegovinian American Academy of Art and Sciences held in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, June 23-26, 2022, are presented in this book. The up-to-date advances in various fields of engineering have been presented through numerous papers spanning the disciplines of civil engineering, mechanical engineering, advanced electrical power systems, computer modeling and simulations for engineering applications, computer science and artificial intelligence, geodesy and geoinformation, data science and geographic information systems and information and communication technologies. The editors would like to extend special gratitude to all the chairs of the planned symposia of the 13th Days of BHAAAS for their dedicated work in the production of this book.

Download or read book Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python written by Francesca Lazzeri and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-12-01 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to apply the principles of machine learning to time series modeling with this indispensable resource Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is an incisive and straightforward examination of one of the most crucial elements of decision-making in finance, marketing, education, and healthcare: time series modeling. Despite the centrality of time series forecasting, few business analysts are familiar with the power or utility of applying machine learning to time series modeling. Author Francesca Lazzeri, a distinguished machine learning scientist and economist, corrects that deficiency by providing readers with comprehensive and approachable explanation and treatment of the application of machine learning to time series forecasting. Written for readers who have little to no experience in time series forecasting or machine learning, the book comprehensively covers all the topics necessary to: Understand time series forecasting concepts, such as stationarity, horizon, trend, and seasonality Prepare time series data for modeling Evaluate time series forecasting models’ performance and accuracy Understand when to use neural networks instead of traditional time series models in time series forecasting Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is full real-world examples, resources and concrete strategies to help readers explore and transform data and develop usable, practical time series forecasts. Perfect for entry-level data scientists, business analysts, developers, and researchers, this book is an invaluable and indispensable guide to the fundamental and advanced concepts of machine learning applied to time series modeling.

Download or read book Forecasting commodity prices using long short term memory neural networks written by Ly, Racine and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-10 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies a recurrent neural network (RNN) method to forecast cotton and oil prices. We show how these new tools from machine learning, particularly Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, complement traditional methods. Our results show that machine learning methods fit reasonably well with the data but do not outperform systematically classical methods such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) or the naïve models in terms of out of sample forecasts. However, averaging the forecasts from the two type of models provide better results compared to either method. Compared to the ARIMA and the LSTM, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the average forecast was 0.21 and 21.49 percent lower, respectively, for cotton. For oil, the forecast averaging does not provide improvements in terms of RMSE. We suggest using a forecast averaging method and extending our analysis to a wide range of commodity prices.

Download or read book Handbook of Digital Currency written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-05-05 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Incorporating currencies, payment methods, and protocols that computers use to talk to each other, digital currencies are poised to grow in use and importance. The Handbook of Digital Currency gives readers a way to learn about subjects outside their specialties and provides authoritative background and tools for those whose primary source of information is journal articles. Taking a cross-country perspective, its comprehensive view of the field includes history, technicality, IT, finance, economics, legal, tax and regulatory environment. For those who come from different backgrounds with different questions in mind, The Handbook of Digital Currency is an essential starting point. Discusses all major strategies and tactics associated with digital currencies, their uses, and their regulations Presents future scenarios for the growth of digital currencies Written for regulators, crime prevention units, tax authorities, entrepreneurs, micro-financiers, micro-payment businesses, cryptography experts, software developers, venture capitalists, hedge fund managers, hardware manufacturers, credit card providers, money changers, remittance service providers, exchanges, and academics Winner of the 2015 "Outstanding Business Reference Source" by the Reference and User Services Association (RUSA)

Download or read book Advances in Financial Machine Learning written by Marcos Lopez de Prado and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-01-23 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning (ML) is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. Today ML algorithms accomplish tasks that until recently only expert humans could perform. As it relates to finance, this is the most exciting time to adopt a disruptive technology that will transform how everyone invests for generations. Readers will learn how to structure Big data in a way that is amenable to ML algorithms; how to conduct research with ML algorithms on that data; how to use supercomputing methods; how to backtest your discoveries while avoiding false positives. The book addresses real-life problems faced by practitioners on a daily basis, and explains scientifically sound solutions using math, supported by code and examples. Readers become active users who can test the proposed solutions in their particular setting. Written by a recognized expert and portfolio manager, this book will equip investment professionals with the groundbreaking tools needed to succeed in modern finance.

Download or read book GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON written by Vivian Siahaan and published by BALIGE PUBLISHING. This book was released on 2022-05-23 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The challenge of this project is to accurately predict the future adjusted closing price of Gold ETF across a given period of time in the future. The problem is a regression problem, because the output value which is the adjusted closing price in this project is continuous value. Data for this study is collected from November 18th 2011 to January 1st 2019 from various sources. The data has 1718 rows in total and 80 columns in total. Data for attributes, such as Oil Price, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, Dow Jones Index US Bond rates (10 years), Euro USD exchange rates, prices of precious metals Silver and Platinum and other metals such as Palladium and Rhodium, prices of US Dollar Index, Eldorado Gold Corporation and Gold Miners ETF were gathered. The dataset has 1718 rows in total and 80 columns in total. Data for attributes, such as Oil Price, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, Dow Jones Index US Bond rates (10 years), Euro USD exchange rates, prices of precious metals Silver and Platinum and other metals such as Palladium and Rhodium, prices of US Dollar Index, Eldorado Gold Corporation and Gold Miners ETF were gathered. To perform forecasting based on regression adjusted closing price of gold, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. The machine learning models used predict gold daily returns as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and Extra Trees classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, and scalability of the model.