Download or read book Credit Booms Is China Different written by Ms.Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-05 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom carries risks. International experience suggests that China’s credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory, with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment and/or a marked growth slowdown. Several China-specific factors—high savings, current account surplus, small external debt, and various policy buffers—can help mitigate near-term risks of a disruptive adjustment and buy time to address risks. But, if the risks are left unaddressed, these mitigating factors will likely not eliminate the eventual adjustment, but make the boom larger and last longer. Hence, decisive policy action is needed to deflate the credit boom safely.
Download or read book Credit Booms Is China Different written by Ms.Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-05 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strong Chinese output growth after the Global Financial Crisis was supported by booming credit. This credit boom carries risks. International experience suggests that China’s credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory, with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment and/or a marked growth slowdown. Several China-specific factors—high savings, current account surplus, small external debt, and various policy buffers—can help mitigate near-term risks of a disruptive adjustment and buy time to address risks. But, if the risks are left unaddressed, these mitigating factors will likely not eliminate the eventual adjustment, but make the boom larger and last longer. Hence, decisive policy action is needed to deflate the credit boom safely.
Download or read book Resolving China s Corporate Debt Problem written by Wojciech Maliszewski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.
Download or read book China s Credit Boom written by Nicholas Borst and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Policies for Macrofinancial Stability written by Mr.Bas B. Bakker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-07 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note explores the costs and benefits of different policy options to reduce the risks associated with credit booms, drawing upon several country experiences and the findings from econometric analysis.
Download or read book From the Middle Kingdom to the United Kingdom written by Robert Gilhooly and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's credit boom is one of the largest and longest running ever recorded. Similar credit booms have typically preceded crises in other countries.This article provides an updated assessment of how a shock to the Chinese economy could affect the UK economy via standard transmission channels - such as trade and financial linkages. It then considers how amplification mechanisms, which could plausibly operate in the event of a particularly large shock, could further increase the impact on the UK from an economic crisis within China.We find that the effects via standard channels from a modest fall in Chinese GDP are larger than our previous estimates, primarily due to China's increasing role in global trade. A more extreme shock which triggers amplification mechanisms - such as a larger financial market reaction - could potentially double the effects from the standard channels alone.
Download or read book Resolving China s Corporate Debt Problem written by Wojciech Maliszewski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.
Download or read book A Great Leap Forward written by John F. Mauldin and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2016-01-26 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If the world's second-largest economy stumbles, will you be ready? A Great Leap Forward? investigates the current state of China's economy and the possible futures that could unfold. Presenting a range of perspectives from an all-star cast of China experts, brought together by the best-selling and renowned economist John Mauldin and Global Macro Strategist Worth Wray, this book digs deep into China's position on the edge of a great transformation—or epic disaster—and lays out the potential impacts from the world's economy down to your personal portfolio. China's old smokestack economy is overbuilt and awash in debt, with a banking system that may be seriously underwater; at the same time, explosive growth in retail consumption and productivity may be ushering in a new era of growth—but can it last? Whether China continues to reach new heights or succumbs to high debt, zombie industries, and a 'de-liquefied' banking system, the outcome will shake the world. This book shows you how to prepare yourself and your portfolio for whatever the next five years may bring. Whether you realize it or not, you're deeply invested in China's outcome. This book gives you a new, deeper insight into the coming boom—or bust—and shows you how to steel your portfolio against any threats that arise. Delve inside the current state of China's economy Reconcile future predictions with present realities Learn how China's future will impact the world's economy Protect your portfolio no matter what unfolds China's reformers face rising debt, widespread risks to unemployment, and even threats to the Communist Party itself. The People's Republic needs a new plan, and we will all learn soon enough what it will look like—and whether or not it will work. Don't wait for a possible crisis, start preparing now to keep your portfolio safe out of the coming turbulence. The future of China is the future of the world, and A Great Leap Forward? helps you look ahead to forge the clearest path.
Download or read book China and the Credit Crisis written by Giles Chance and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The western world attributed China’s role as world’s largest financer of the developed world and third largest economy in the world to new economic efficiencies, a revolution in risk management and its own wise policies. China and the Credit Crisis argues that if the extent of the role played in the new prosperity by an emerging China, and the fundamental nature of the changes it brought had been better understood, more appropriate policies and actions would have been adopted at the time which could have avoided the crash, or at least limited its impact. China’s Credit Crisis examines the larger role that China will play in the recovery from the current credit crisis and in the post-crisis world. It addresses the major questions which arise from the financial crisis and discuss the landscape of the post-credit crisis world, initially by continuing to provide growth to a world deep in recession, and later by sharing global economic and political leadership
Download or read book China s Great Wall of Debt written by Dinny McMahon and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2018-03-13 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stunning inside look at how and why the foundations upon which China has built the world’s second largest economy, have started to crumble. Over the course of a decade spent reporting in China as a financial journalist, Dinny McMahon came to the conclusion that the widely held belief in China’s inevitable economic ascent is dangerously wrong. In this unprecedented deep dive, McMahon shows how, lurking behind the illusion of prosperity, China’s economic growth has been built on a staggering mountain of debt. While stories of newly built but empty cities, white elephant state projects, and a byzantine shadow banking system have all become a regular fixture in the press, McMahon goes beyond the headlines to explain how such waste has been allowed to flourish, and why one of the most powerful governments in the world has been at a loss to stop it. Through the stories of ordinary Chinese citizens, McMahon tries to make sense of the unique—and often bizarre—mechanics of the nation’s economy, whether it be the state’s addiction to appropriating land from poor farmers; or why a Chinese entrepreneur decided it was cheaper to move his yarn factory to South Carolina; or why ambitious Chinese mayors build ghost cities; or why the Chinese bureaucracy was able to stare down Beijing’s attempts to break up the state’s pointless monopoly over table salt distribution. Debt, entrenched vested interests, a frenzy of speculation, and an aging population are all pushing China toward an economic reckoning. China’s Great Wall of Debt unravels an incredibly complex and opaque economy, one whose fortunes—for better or worse—will shape the globe like never before.
Download or read book China s Gilded Age written by Yuen Yuen Ang and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-05-28 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why has China grown so fast for so long despite vast corruption? In China's Gilded Age, Yuen Yuen Ang maintains that all corruption is harmful, but not all types of corruption hurt growth. Ang unbundles corruption into four varieties: petty theft, grand theft, speed money, and access money. While the first three types impede growth, access money - elite exchanges of power and profit - cuts both ways: it stimulates investment and growth but produces serious risks for the economy and political system. Since market opening, corruption in China has evolved toward access money. Using a range of data sources, the author explains the evolution of Chinese corruption, how it differs from the West and other developing countries, and how Xi's anti-corruption campaign could affect growth and governance. In this formidable yet accessible book, Ang challenges one-dimensional measures of corruption. By unbundling the problem and adopting a comparative-historical lens, she reveals that the rise of capitalism was not accompanied by the eradication of corruption, but rather by its evolution from thuggery and theft to access money. In doing so, she changes the way we think about corruption and capitalism, not only in China but around the world.
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2016-06-22 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
Download or read book The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
Download or read book The China Triangle written by Kevin P. Gallagher and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016-02-22 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1980, China has evolved from a poor and mostly rural society into one of the largest economies in the world. As it grew into a major industrial power, it demanded enormous amounts of steel for new factories and cities, copper for electronic wires, petroleum for cars and manufacturing plants, and soybeans and cattle to feed its workers. By the 1990s, many Latin American countries were riding China's coattails and beginning to prosper from the new demand. Ever since China entered the World Trade Organization at the turn of the century, Latin America supplied China with more and more of the primary commodities it needs and more. That in turn has produced one the most impressive periods of economic growth on the continent in fifty years. And it was more evenly spread too - a region infamous for its extreme inequality saw it decline by a couple of percentage points over the course of the era. In The China Triangle, Kevin P. Gallagher traces the development of the China-Latin America trade over time and covers how it has affected the centuries-old (and highly unequal) US-Latin American relationship. He argues that despite these opportunities Latin American nations have little to show for riding the coattails of the 'China Boom' and now face significant challenges in the next decades as China's economy slows down and shifts more toward consumption and services. While the Latin American region saw significant economic growth due to China's rise over the past decades, Latin Americans saved very little of the windfall profits it earned even as the region saw a significant hollowing of its industrial base. What is more, commodity-led growth during the China boom reignited social and environmental conflicts across the region. Scholars and reporters have covered the Chinese expansion into East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australasia, Africa, the US, and Europe. Yet China's penetration Latin America is as little understood as it is significant-especially for America given its longstanding ties to the region. Gallagher provides a clear overview of China's growing economic ties with Latin America and points to ways that Latin American nations, China, and even the United States can act in order to make the next decades of China-Latin America economic activity more prosperous for all involved.
Download or read book Red Flags written by George Magnus and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A trusted economic commentator provides a penetrating account of the threats to China's continued economic riseUnder President Xi Jinping, China has become a large and confident power both at home and abroad, but the country also faces serious challenges. In this critical take on China’s future, economist George Magnus explores four key traps that China must confront and overcome in order to thrive: debt, middle income, the Renminbi, and an aging population. Looking at the political direction President Xi Jinping is taking, Magnus argues that Xi’s authoritarian and repressive philosophy is ultimately not compatible with the country’s economic aspirations.Thorough and well researched, the book also investigates the potential for conflicts over trade, China’s evolving relationship with Trump, and the country’s attempt to win influence and control in Eurasia through the Belt and Road initiative.
Download or read book China s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Download or read book Making Of An Economic Superpower The Unlocking China s Secret Of Rapid Industrialization written by Yi Wen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2016-05-13 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China's rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China's growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite its current 'backward' financial system and political institutions. Conversely, China's spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream 'blackboard' economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Africa's enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America's lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe's great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself.
