Download or read book Covid 19 and lockdown policies A structural simulation model of a bottom up recession in four countries written by Robinson, Sherman and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-04-19 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers different approaches to modelling the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic/lockdown shocks. We review different modelling strategies and argue that, given the nature of the bottom-up recession caused by the pandemic/lockdowns, simulation models of the shocks should be based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) that includes both disaggregated sectoral data and the national accounts in a unified framework. SAM-based models have been widely used to analyze the impact of natural disasters, which are comparable to pandemic/lockdown shocks. The pandemic/lockdown shocks occurred rapidly, in weeks or months, not gradually over a year or more. In such a short period, adjustments through smooth changes in wages, prices and production methods are not plausible. Rather, initial adjustments occur through changes in quantities, altering demand and supply of commodities and employment in affected sectors. In this environment, we use a linear SAM-multiplier model that specifies a fixed-coefficient production technology, linear demand system, fixed savings rates, and fixed prices. There are three different kinds of sectoral shocks that are included in the model: (1) changes in demand due to household lockdown, (2) changes in supply due to industry lockdown, and (3) changes in demand due to induced macro shocks. At the detailed industry level, data are provided for all three shocks and the model imposes the largest of the three. We applied the model on a monthly time step for the period March to June 2020 for four countries: US, UK, Mexico, and South Africa. The models closely replicate observed macro results (GDP and employment) for the period. The results provide detailed structural information on the evolution of the different economies month-by-month and provide a framework for forward-looking scenario analysis. We also use the SAM-multiplier model to estimate the macro stimulus impacts of policies to support affected households. The model focuses attention on the structural features of the economy that define the multiplier process (who gets the additional income and what do they do with it) and provides a more nuanced analysis of the stimulus impact of income support programs than can be done with aggregated macro models.

Download or read book Covid 19 and Lockdown Policies written by Sherman Robinson and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Building back fairer from the Covid 19 pandemic in South Africa Some first step reforms in an era of fiscal constraints written by Arndt, Channing and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-09-24 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, South Africa confronted an unfolding economic crisis. Today, the economic situation has worsened in essentially every dimension. If there is a silver lining to this terrible pandemic from the perspective of the South African economy, it could be found in an enhanced willingness to implement reform measures designed to rekindle growth, improve equity, and drive sustainable development whilst recognizing significant fiscal constraints. To this end, this paper focuses on three areas: skills; food systems, nutrition, and health; and urban structure. In each area, we first briefly consider long run perspectives and then turn attention to high return positive steps that can be implemented in the very near term and are consistent with the realization of a positive long run vision. We find that much greater openness to immigration of highly skilled and experienced workers (and their families) stands out as a rapidly implementable policy that offers strong potential to stimulate growth, create jobs, and reduce inequality at low costs to government and with low risk. With respect to food systems, nutrition, and health, we point to a solid basis for optimism about growth and employment prospects in the long term. We also highlight the potential benefits of holistic perspectives that include implications for nutrition and health. Turning to the very near term, we underline the need to reduce the policy uncertainty associated with land reform. In this optic, we recommend consideration of a focus of reform in the near term on favorable dryland areas that can be equipped with supplemental irrigation, with the goal of permitting these areas to specialize in higher value products. Judicious water resource use planning must accompany this policy. Turning to urban structure, we note the persistence of the spatial inequities entrenched by the apartheid era. With tight fiscal constraints on government investment that are likely to extend to the medium term, we seek to refocus policy on measures designed to increase efficiency and equity outcomes derived from existing infrastructure. The analyses of these three areas complement the growth agenda released by the National Treasury in August 2019 and the policy discussions contained in a series of policy papers published by Economic Research South Africa (ERSA) over 2021.

Download or read book The Economics of COVID 19 written by Badi H. Baltagi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economics of COVID-19 contains selected contributions analysing the effects of the global pandemic on macroeconomics, computable general equilibrium models and financial markets, as well as health studies proposing to improve the traditional epidemic models.

Download or read book Recovering from COVID 19 Economic scenarios for South Africa written by van Seventer, Dirk and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-07-06 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the South African economy emerges from the downturn induced by COVID-19, policy makers are concerned with recovery, reconstruction, and transformation. This paper focuses on the recovery from the severely depressed levels of economic activity that occurred in April 2020. However, before considering the period after the economic trough of April 2020, a mention of economic conditions prior to the pandemic is worthwhile. In brief, economic performance was terrible by almost any metric. Furthermore, economic performance had been poor since 2008, with evidence pointing to ongoing deterioration culminating in the fourth quarter of 2019, when per capita GDP contracted, unemployment ticked upwards to its highest level since 1994, productivity declined, and inequality worsened. The striking difficulties of the South African economy in avoiding/absorbing shocks-whether internally generated, such as shocks to electricity supply, or externally generated, such as changes in terms of trade or investor sentiment in relation to emerging markets-have been an integral part of this disappointing economic performance over time. In short, the situation prevailing prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was one of economic weakness. Beginning from this position of weakness, the economic shock related to COVID-19 was enormous, likely the largest single economic shock in the history of South Africa. According to official statistics, GDP in the second quarter of 2020 was approximately 17% below the level registered in the second quarter of 2019. In assessing this shock, it is important to recall that GDP is a flow concept. One can, in principle, consider the volume of flow over any arbitrary period: a day, a week, a month, a quarter, a semester, a year, and so forth. The lockdown associated with COVID-19 precipitated an extraordinarily rapid decline in economic activity. Indeed, the available analytics and data point to a trough in economic activity, or flow value of GDP, at less than 70% of the level that would have pertained in the absence of the pandemic, or a greater than 30% decline in the flow rate of GDP (Arndt et al 2020). If we accept a 17% reduction as the average flow rate of GDP over the quarter and we accept that the economic shock related to COVID-19 was unprecedently rapid and drove a decline in the flow value of GDP of much more than 17% at the trough (which probably occurred sometime in late April or early May), then we must also accept a rapid recovery in economic activity in May and June in order to achieve an average decline of 17% over the quarter. Furthermore, this relatively rapid recovery continued. GDP in the third quarter of 2020 was “only” about 6% below the levels recorded for the third quarter of 2019, with the corresponding figure for the fourth quarter at about 4%. Other figures, including recent ones, broadly support this basic story. For example, retail sales in February 2021 were up 2.4% year-on-year, with the previous two months, January and December, having registered only a slight decline year-on-year. Correspondingly, manufacturing production and sales were down by 2.1% in February 2021 year-on-year. A few broad observations emerge from this history and the available data. First, the South African economy has exhibited more resilience to the COVID-19 shock than performance up to December 2019 might have led one to expect. In Mexico, for example, the distance between fourth quarter GDP in 2020 and that in 2019 was greater than for the same comparison in South Africa. At the same time, Mexico registered close to twice as many deaths related to COVID-19 per million population as South Africa. Second, multiplier effects are important. As discussed in Arndt et al (2020), multiplier effects accounted for the bulk of the initial economic contraction. However, they also operate positively, buoying the recovery experienced to date and bringing economic activity back towards the levels of 2019. Third, while having GDP about 4% down year-on-year is much better than the 17% decline observed in the second quarter, 4% down is still a deep recession by ordinary standards. While some sectors are producing at close to levels observed in the fourth quarter of 2019, others are more strongly affected. The incidence of these depressed levels of economic activity remains likely to be tilted toward lower-income households, which are more vulnerable to begin with. Overall, there remains substantial slack in the economy, multiplier effects still apply, and many households remain deeply vulnerable to severe economic hardship.

Download or read book Questioning the Entrepreneurial State written by Karl Wennberg and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-04-23 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have made the authorities to increasingly turn inward and use ethnocentrism, protectionism, and top-down approaches to guide policy on trade, competition, and industrial development. The continuing aftereffects of such policies range from the rise and seeming success of authoritarian states, rise of populist and protectionist trends, and evolving academic agendas inspiring the reemergence of top-down industrial policies across the world. This open access edited volume contains contributions from over 30 scholars with expertise in economics, innovation, management, and economic history. The chapters offer unique theoretical and empirical contributions discussing topics such as how industrial policies affect risk, incentives, and information for investments. They also address the policy perspectives on new technologies such as AI and its implications for market entry, the role for independent entrepreneurship in increasingly regulated markets, and whether governments should focus on market interventions or institutional capacity-building. Questioning the Entrepreneurial State initiates a much sought-after debate on the notion of an Entrepreneurial State. It discusses the dangers of top-down approaches to industrial policy, examines lessons from such approaches for future policy design, and calls attention to the progress of open and contestable markets in a sound economy and society. “Creative destruction, innovation and entrepreneurship are at the core of economic growth. The government has a clear role, to provide the basic fabric of a dynamic society, but industrial policy and state-owned companies are the boulevard of broken dreams and unrealized visions. This important message is convincingly stated in Questioning the Entrepreneurial State.” Anders Borg, former Minister of Finance, Sweden “Misreading the dynamism of American entrepreneurship, European intellectuals and policy makers have embraced a dangerous fantasy: catching up requires constructing an entrepreneurial state. This book provides a vital antidote: The entrepreneur comes first: The state may support. It cannot lead.” Amar Bhidé, Thomas Schmidheiny Professor of International Business, Tufts University “This important new book subjects the emergence of the entrepreneurial state, which reflects a shift in the locus of entrepreneurship from the individual to the public sector, to the scrutiny of rigorous analysis. The resulting concerns, flaws and biases inherent in the entrepreneurial state exposed are both alarming and sobering. The skill and scholarly craftsmanship brought to bear in this crucial analysis is evident throughout the book, along with the even, but ultimately consequential thinking of the authors. A must read for researchers and thought leaders in business and policy." David Audtretsch, Distinguished Professor, Ameritech Chair of Economic Development, Indiana University

Download or read book Recoveries After Pandemics The Role of Policies and Structural Features written by Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-09 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita).

Download or read book Macroeconomic Responses to the COVID 19 Pandemic written by Neven Vidaković and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-17 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines economic policies utilized within Southeast Europe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Covering countries both within and outside the European Union, the human and economic cost of the pandemic is calculated using macroeconomic models from a short and longer term perspective. The economic policies used during the pandemic are analyzed, alongside crisis management approaches, to highlight the effectiveness of monetary policy, fiscal policies and potential future economic solutions for the post COVID-19 period. This book aims to provide policy recommendations based on findings from Southeast Europe. It is relevant to researchers and policymakers involved in economic policy and the political economy, as well as anyone interested in the responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Download or read book The short run economic costs of COVID 19 in developing countries in 2020 A synthesis of results from a multi country modeling exercise written by Pauw, Karl and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-04 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.

Download or read book The impacts of COVID 19 and policy responses in rural economies written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This book was released on 2023-01-19 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policies to limit its spread are multi-faceted and complex. Market linkages transmit these impacts through economies, from directly affected actors to others in both the urban and rural spheres. Economic contexts, including the structure of local economies, shape the transmission of impacts on rural men and women. Because of this, the pandemic, lockdowns, and mitigation policies influence outcomes in complex ways. In most cases, the magnitudes and even the signs of impacts cannot be determined ex ante. In this study, we use multiple local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) models to estimate the impacts of the pandemic and lockdowns on rural producers and households in a diversity of economic and agro-climatic settings, using simulation methods. We also examine the likely effects of alternative migitation measures.

Download or read book After Effects of the COVID 19 Pandemic Prospects for Medium Term Economic Damage written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

Download or read book The Unequal Costs of Covid 19 on Well being in Europe written by Louise Dalingwater and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on the wider wellbeing costs within European countries as a result of the outbreak of the pandemic and the control measures implemented thereafter. In particular, it considers to what extent Covid-19 and measures taken to cope with the crisis have weakened economic and social structures across Europe and what effect this has had on people’s lives. While many countries in Europe have reallocated public funding to health care, provided support to SMEs, vulnerable populations and regions hit by the crisis, the wellbeing or welfare costs, considered broadly, are still significant. The authors' assessment thus goes beyond the subjective wellbeing discourse and evaluates to what extent structural weaknesses within economic, social and regional frameworks have deepened. The chapters discuss what policies are needed to address these weaknesses. the volume thus recognises that structural inequalities are a key driver of wellbeing. While there have been a number of publications on wellbeing during the pandemic, the original perspective in each chapter on inequalities and the European focus of this publication provide novel information and insights on the topic.

Download or read book Initial Output Losses from the COVID 19 Pandemic written by Davide Furceri and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.

Download or read book Working through the Crisis written by Arup Banerji and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-12-18 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the experience of workers in developing countries during the global financial crisis of 2009, asseses the recovery, and provides new evidence on the policy response that countries undertook in response to the crisis.

Download or read book Smart Containment Lessons from Countries with Past Experience written by Alexandra Fotiou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-23 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following the Great Lockdown in 2020, it is important to take stock of lessons learned. How effective have different containment measures been in slowing the spread of Covid-19? Have containment measures been costly in terms of economic growth, fiscal balances, and accumulated debt? This paper finds that countries with previous SARS experience acted fast and "smart", and were able to contain the virus by relying mainly on public health measures ─ testing, contact tracing, and public information campaigns ─ rather than stay-at-home requirements. Using past coronavirus outbreaks as an instrumental variable, we show that countries with past experience were able to contain the virus in a smart way, reducing transmission and deaths while also experiencing higher economic growth in 2020.

Download or read book Social Health and Economic Impacts of the COVID 19 Pandemic and the Epidemiological Control Measures written by Axel Börsch-Supan and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2023-10-23 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic posed a major threat to the well-being of older Europeans. Its economic and social effects, however, varied across countries. This multidisciplinary book presents the first results of analyses that combined the renowned longitudinal database of SHARE with new data from two telephone surveys that were uniquely conducted during the pandemic. The analyses address important policy-related issues, such as: Did social distancing destabilize family and social support networks? Did the pandemic increase health, social and economic inequality? Who had to forego essential health care because of the pandemic? Did lockdown affect one's physical and mental health? Did the shift towards remote work affect workload and well-being? Were different housing conditions related to the spread of the virus?

Download or read book Lockdown Policies written by Francesco Busato and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic is producing a global health and economic crisis. The entire globe is facing the trade-off between health and recessionary effects. This paper investigates this trade-off according to a macro-dynamic perspective. We set up and simulate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to analyze the COVID-19 contagion within an economy with endogenous dynamics for the pandemic. There are three main results. First, the macroeconomic effects of the epidemic containment measures are much severe. The negative peak in aggregate production range from 11 percent with a soft containment measure to 35 percent with a strong containment measure; second, recovery from recession emerges when the lockdown policy is relaxed. On that basis, the output would return to its pre-lockdown level by the end of 2021; third, a return infection is expected after 36 weeks from the fist contagion contributing to exacerbates the size and duration of the economic crisis.