Download or read book Irreversibility Uncertainty and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Download or read book Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis written by Paul R. Garvey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-01-06 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
Download or read book Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems written by Peter Sandborn and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the cost ramifications of design, manufacturing and life-cycle management decisions is of central importance to businesses associated with all types of electronic systems. Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems contains carefully developed models and theory that practicing engineers can directly apply to the modeling of costs for real products and systems. In addition, this book brings to light and models many contributions to life-cycle costs that practitioners are aware of but never had the tools or techniques to address quantitatively in the past.Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems melds elements of traditional engineering economics with manufacturing process and life-cycle cost management concepts to form a practical foundation for predicting the cost of electronic products and systems. Various manufacturing cost analysis methods are addressed including: process-flow, parametric, cost of ownership, and activity-based costing. The effects of learning curves, data uncertainty, test and rework processes, and defects are considered. Aspects of system sustainment and life-cycle cost modeling including reliability (warranty, burn-in), maintenance (sparing and availability), and obsolescence are treated. Finally, total cost of ownership of systems and return on investment are addressed.Real life design scenarios from integrated circuit fabrication, electronic systems assembly, substrate fabrication, and electronic systems managementare used as examples of the application of the cost estimation methods developed within the book.
Download or read book The Universal Generating Function in Reliability Analysis and Optimization written by Gregory Levitin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-02-04 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many real systems are composed of multi-state components with different performance levels and several failure modes. These affect the whole system's performance. Most books on reliability theory cover binary models that allow a system only to function perfectly or fail completely. "The Universal Generating Function in Reliability Analysis and Optimization" is the first book that gives a comprehensive description of the universal generating function technique and its applications in binary and multi-state system reliability analysis. Features: - an introduction to basic tools of multi-state system reliability and optimization; - applications of the universal generating function in widely used multi-state systems; - examples of the adaptation of the universal generating function to different systems in mechanical, industrial and software engineering. This monograph will be of value to anyone interested in system reliability, performance analysis and optimization in industrial, electrical and nuclear engineering.
Download or read book The Costs of Commodity Price Uncertainty and Instability written by Andrew Powell and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Cost Uncertainty and Welfare written by Stephan John Nash and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-12-17 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1998. This work contributes to the discussion of Knight by showing that uncertainty broadens the conception of economic welfare, and that a new cost analysis holds the key to unlocking the Knightian corpus. It develops Knight's suggestion that uncertainty-control costs can be reduced - arguing that the large firm enjoys economic rent from utilizing its dominant vantage point in the market. The author demonstrates that while Knight provides the intellectual stimulus which propelled Chamberlin's thesis of monopolistic competition, Chamberlin uses a very abstract form of uncertainty in his analysis.
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Download or read book New Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Moawia Alghalith and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents an alternative theoretical framework that can serve as the basis for a new age of economic analysis under risk and uncertainty. This work features an endogenous theory that overcomes the major shortcomings of both the expected utility and the rank-dependent models while it possesses the merits of both.
Download or read book The costs of commodity price uncertainty and instability written by A. Powell and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk Choice and Uncertainty written by George G. Szpiro and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-07 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought.
Download or read book The Theory of Price Uncertainty Production and Profit written by Clement Allan Tisdell and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-08 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Firms and farmers, under pure competition, must make production decisions in the face of price uncertainty. The author has integrated diverse theories of behavior under uncertainty to provide a new framework for his mathematical analysis of the impact of price uncertainty on the behavior of the firm. Drawing upon the work of Knight, Hicks, von Neumann, and Morgenstern, he develops a schema that accounts for a greater diversity of behavior than do existing theories, yet one which yields simple economic theorems of practical value. The conclusions he draws apply to both socialist and capitalist economics. Originally published in 1968. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Download or read book The Flaw of Averages written by Sam L. Savage and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-13 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
Download or read book Code Complete written by Steve McConnell and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 2004-06-09 with total page 952 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Widely considered one of the best practical guides to programming, Steve McConnell’s original CODE COMPLETE has been helping developers write better software for more than a decade. Now this classic book has been fully updated and revised with leading-edge practices—and hundreds of new code samples—illustrating the art and science of software construction. Capturing the body of knowledge available from research, academia, and everyday commercial practice, McConnell synthesizes the most effective techniques and must-know principles into clear, pragmatic guidance. No matter what your experience level, development environment, or project size, this book will inform and stimulate your thinking—and help you build the highest quality code. Discover the timeless techniques and strategies that help you: Design for minimum complexity and maximum creativity Reap the benefits of collaborative development Apply defensive programming techniques to reduce and flush out errors Exploit opportunities to refactor—or evolve—code, and do it safely Use construction practices that are right-weight for your project Debug problems quickly and effectively Resolve critical construction issues early and correctly Build quality into the beginning, middle, and end of your project
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Download or read book Cost Uncertainty and Welfare written by Stephan John Nash and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-04-02 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1998. This work contributes to the discussion of Knight by showing that uncertainty broadens the conception of economic welfare, and that a new cost analysis holds the key to unlocking the Knightian corpus. It develops Knight's suggestion that uncertainty-control costs can be reduced - arguing that the large firm enjoys economic rent from utilizing its dominant vantage point in the market. The author demonstrates that while Knight provides the intellectual stimulus which propelled Chamberlin's thesis of monopolistic competition, Chamberlin uses a very abstract form of uncertainty in his analysis.
