Download or read book Cost Prediction Via Quantitative Analysis of Complexity in U S Navy Shipbuilding written by Aaron Travis Dobson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the sophistication and technology of ships increases, U.S. Navy shipbuilding must be an effective and cost-efficient acquirer of technology-dense one-of-a-kind ships all while meeting significant cost and schedule constraints in a fluctuating demand environment. A drive to provide world-class technology to the U.S. Navy's warfighters necessitates increasingly complex ships, which further augments the non-trivial problem of providing cost effective, on-schedule ships for the American taxpayer. The primary objective of this study was to quantify, assess, and analyze cost-predictive complexity-oriented benchmarks in the pre-construction phase of the U.S. Navy's ship acquisition process. This study used commercially-available software such as Mathwork's MATLAB software to analyze the numerical cost data and assess the fidelity of the predictive benchmarks to the datasets. The end result was that a consideration of complexity via the methods and algorithms established in this study supported an exponential cost versus complexity relationship to refine the current cost estimation methods and software currently in use in U.S. Navy shipbuilding. Specifically, it was found that for the subsystems under analysis, acquisition/contract cost per unit was highly correlated with unit complexity according to the relationship, cost/unit ($M,USD) = 23.100 + e^0.015C.
Download or read book A Statistical Analysis of the Engineering Approach to Navy Shipbuilding Cost Estimation written by Kian Chiong Yu and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper discusses the feasibility of developing regression models to predict the total cost of a Navy ship using the physical weights of the ship components as independent variables was investigated. The various forms of regression analyses fall under the following three categories: Linear multiple regression analysis; Non-linear multiple regression analysis; and Adding-up process, which is an aggregation of two-variable regression analyses. It was found that the linear model is preferable over the non-linear model and the adding-up process. If the samples are properly selected, linear models which are statistically significant can be derived. Given its superiority over the other two models, the degree of accuracy of the linear model is still not high enough to produce a dependable point estimation for the total cost of the ship. (Author).
Download or read book Estimation and Analysis of Navy Shipbuilding Program Disruption Costs written by Colin P. Hammon and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in ship design or specifications disrupt work on a ship, and can disrupt work throughout an entire shipyard. This increases costs. Additionally, government-directed changes may be the legal basis for claims when the contractor overruns cost and schedule for any reason. Outstanding claims for equitable adjustment based primarily on alleged delay and disruption due to Government changes reached the unprecedented level of $2.5 billion in 1978. Many within the Navy would like to move the disruption issue out of the courts by paying the full cost of changes as they are implemented. This paper reports a test of the feasibility of a statistical method for fully pricing shipbuilding change manhours. (Author).
Download or read book Why Has the Cost of Navy Ships Risen written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past several decades, increases in acquisition costs for U.S. Navy combatants have outpaced the rate of inflation. To understand why, the authors of this book examined two principal source categories of ship cost escalation (economy-driven factors and customer-driven factors) and interviewed various shipbuilders. Based on their analysis, the authors propose some ways the Navy might reduce ship costs in the future.
Download or read book Navy Contracting written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Navy Contracting written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Report on Survey and Analysis of Differences Between U S Navy Shipbuilding Costs at Naval and Private Shipyards written by Arthur Andersen & Co and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Analysis of the Navy s Fiscal Year 2011 Shipbuilding Plan written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Navy is required by law to submit a report to the Congress each year that projects the service's shipbuilding requirements, procurement plans, inventories, and costs over the coming 30 years. Since 2006, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has been performing an independent analysis of the Navy's latest shipbuilding plan at the request of the Subcommittee on Seapower and Expeditionary Forces of the House Armed Services Committee. This CBO report, the latest in that series, summarizes the ship requirements and purchases described in the Navy's 2011 plan and assesses their implications for the Navy's funding needs and ship inventories through 2040. The new plan appears to increase the required size of the fleet compared with earlier plans, while reducing the number of ships to be purchased, and thus the costs for ship construction, over the next three decades. Despite those reductions, the total costs of carrying out the 2011 plan would be much higher than the funding levels that the Navy has received in recent years.
Download or read book Design and Analysis of United States Navy Shipbuilding Contract Architecture written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contracting for US Navy ship procurement is complex due several factors such as budgetary and political concerns, sole or near sole source environments, and long lead-time construction. In the current climate of shrinking budgets, it is especially important to set programs up for financial success. One potential area for cost management improvement in acquisition programs is with the initial contract and incentive structure. If shipbuilding contracts could be described in engineering architectural terms, then perhaps that architecture could provide better clarity of contract options. Further, if contracting can be described as an engineering architecture, then perhaps that architecture could be optimized for a given result. These are the central questions of this thesis. To answer them, interviews were conducted with several experienced individuals from both industry and the government. Additionally, past shipbuilding contracts in both the US and Canada were examined. These insights were then used to form a contract architecture concept in accordance with the Tradespace engineering paradigm. From the concept definition came the design vector definition which included variables such as shareline definition, incentives, and contracted profit percentage. The tradespace was then populated by manipulating the design vector parameters. The Palisade tool [at]Risk was used to conduct the design vector manipulation and tradespace population. [at]Risk is an excel plug in that allows uncertain variables to be defined by probability distributions. The tradespace of contract outcomes was then evaluated against utilities such as cost, profit, and risk. Although the factors affecting the contracting environment are complex, and not all are modeled, quantitative modeling allows the architect to roughly evaluate different approaches, vice just basing the contract on past models. It also gives the government the ability to check whether shipbuilder furnished predicted costs are reasonable for a given contract structure.
Download or read book Operating and Support Costs and Affordability of a 324 Ship Naval Battle Force written by Kevin C. Antonucci and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this research was to determine both the added operating and support (O & S) costs and affordability of operating and maintaining a future naval battle force of 324 ships as proposed in the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan. Cost estimation including regression, 3-year moving averages, point, expert and analogous modeling was used to capture both historical and future O & S costs from FY1991 to FY2024. With an emphasis on the three main cost drivers, (manpower, fuel and maintenance) which arguably had the largest influence on ships' O & S costs, data were obtained from the Visibility & Management of Operating & Support Cost (VAMOSC) database and various Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). Analysis and modeling followed suite in order to forecast expected future costs and affordability for a proposed 12.5 percent growth in naval fleet size by FY2024. Reviewing all 29 classes of ship within the expected FY2024 battle force, normalized results from the cost estimation models yielded a minimum cost growth of 17 percent in O & S costs. Even if budget growth trend rates were to remain steady, negating the possibility of budget decreases, this thesis argues the Navy would still not be able to afford its proposed future battle force in FY2024.
Download or read book Why Has the Cost of Navy Ships Risen A Macroscopic Examination of the Trends in U S Naval Ship Costs Over the Past Several Decades written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past four decades, the growth of U.S. Navy ship costs has exceeded the rate of inflation. This cost escalation concerns many in the Navy and the government. The real growth in Navy ship costs means that ships are becoming more expensive and outstripping the Navy's ability to pay for them. Given current budget constraints, the Navy is unlikely to see an increase in its shipbuilding budget. Therefore, unless some way is found to get more out of a fixed shipbuilding budget, ship cost escalation means that the size of the Navy will inevitably shrink. In fact, by some estimates, even boosting the shipbuilding budget from $10 billion annually to $12 billion would only help the Navy achieve a fleet of 260 ships by the year 2035 rather than the nearly 290 it now has (CBO, 2005). To better understand the magnitude of ship cost escalation and its implications, the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations asked the RAND Corporation to explore several questions. These include the magnitude of cost escalation, how ship cost escalation compares with other areas of the economy and other weapon systems, the sources of cost escalation, and what might be done to reduce or minimize ship cost escalation.
Download or read book NAVSEA Cost Estimating Handbook written by Department of Department of Defense and published by . This book was released on 2018-06-26 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NAVSEA Cost Estimating Handbook (2005) *Printed in Black and White to reduce cost* Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEASYSCOM or NAVSEA) explains how a NAVSEA cost estimate is an assemblage of separate, distinct, and subordinate parts and each subordinate part is treated as a whole to be separated into its elements for examination, modification, and/or updating before becoming a part of a total estimate. The NAVSEA cost estimating process is at once analytical and synthesizing in nature using established methods and valid data, to estimate the future costs of a program, based on what is known today. It is an organized approach designed to accurately calculate the future costs of ships, submarines, and weapons systems. The management of a cost estimate involves continually updating the estimate with actual data as they become available, revising the estimate to reflect changes, and analyzing differences between estimated and actual costs-for example, using data from a reliable earned value management (EVM) system. Anyone that has ever managed a project knows the value of a good cost estimate.The ability to generate reliable cost estimates is a critical function, necessary to support the NAVSEA capital programming process. Without this ability NAVSEA is at risk of experiencing cost overruns, missed deadlines, and performance shortfalls-all recurring problems that program assessments too often reveal. Furthermore, cost increases often mean that NAVSEA cannot fund as many programs as intended or deliver them when promised. The methodology outlined in this guide is a compilation of best practices that federal cost estimating organizations and industry use to develop and maintain reliable cost estimates throughout the life of a NAVSEA acquisition program. Why buy a book you can download for free? We print this book so you don't have to. First you gotta find a good clean (legible) copy and make sure it's the latest version (not always easy). Some documents found on the web are missing some pages or the image quality is so poor, they are difficult to read. We look over each document carefully and replace poor quality images by going back to the original source document. We proof each document to make sure it's all there - including all changes. If you find a good copy, you could print it using a network printer you share with 100 other people (typically its either out of paper or toner). If it's just a 10-page document, no problem, but if it's 250-pages, you will need to punch 3 holes in all those pages and put it in a 3-ring binder. Takes at least an hour. It's much more cost-effective to just order the latest version from www.Amazon.com This material is published by 4th Watch Publishing Co. We publish tightly-bound, full-size books at 8 1⁄2 by 11 inches, with large text and glossy covers. 4th Watch Publishing Co. is a Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (SDVOSB). Please visit www.usgovpub.com. DoDi 5000.02 Operation of the Defense Acquisition System DoD Contract Pricing Reference Guide DoD Operating and Support Cost-Estimating Guide
Download or read book A Cost Estimation Analysis of U S Navy Ship Fuel Savings Techniques and Technologies written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Department of Defense and Navy are placing a greater emphasis in energy efficiency. Though the surface fleet comprises only a small percentage of petroleum usage, seemingly small efficiencies gained could yield substantial fuel savings. This thesis follows a process of researching and collecting fuel-saving ideas, developing a method to estimate savings, subjecting calculations to sensitivity analyses by discount factor and cost of fuel, and creating prioritization listings of ideas based on predicted savings. Six techniques and twelve technology-based initiatives are examined. Calculations are estimated for each idea using inputs from various sources. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the independent variables of fuel price and discount factor and rankings are computed. The prioritized listing of techniques and technologies are stable when subjected to these sensitivity analyses. And as expected, greater savings are realized when the cost of fuel is higher and/or when the discount factor is lower. For several of the practices in this study, fuel savings are shown to be substantial and worthy for consideration despite any involved risk. These findings may be used by decision makers to pursue further testing and evaluation of practices and subsequently confidently implement throughout the surface fleet, knowing that savings will remain robust despite fluctuations in fuel prices.
Download or read book An Economic Analysis of Us Naval Shipbuilding Costs written by Harry Williams and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report examines the investment cost of US naval ships in order to determine whether alternative procurement practices might lead to reduced costs. The analysis was limited to privately owned shipyards in the United States and other selected countries and was only concerned with that portion of the work carried out in the shipyard (i.e., it did not consider Government-furnished equipment). The report identifies three ways in which the procurement cost of US naval ships could be reduced. First, research indicated that between 1951 and 1965 the US Navy could have aggregated its ship purchasing so as to realize fully those cost reductions typically associated with volume procurement. Second, the US naval shipbuilding industry could have exhibited more efficiency than it did given US factor costs. Third, the US Navy could purchase ships from selected foreign shipbuilders at reduced cost. (Author).
Download or read book A Computer Model to Assess Financing Provisions of Naval FPIF Shipbuilding Contracts written by Stephen Robert Olson and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The complexity of a Fixed Price Incentive Fee (FPIF) contract indicates the need for a quantitative approach in evaluating the impact of FPIF Financing provisions on both the Navy and the contractor. While total program costs may be the most important financial consideration to the Navy, the contractor is affected both by profit and the timing of reimbursement by the government. The timing is an especially important consideration in view of the long construction periods inherent in U.S. Navy ship construction. This paper presents an FPIF contract financing simulation model to evaluate various progress and escalation payment alternatives, progress curves and learning curves. It calculates the impact of cost growth, schedule overrun, and escalation index performance. The model is documented for use by others.
Download or read book A Cost Estimation Analysis of U S Navy Fuel saving Techniques and Technologies written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Department of Defense and Navy are placing a greater emphasis in energy efficiency. Though the surface fleet comprises only a small percentage of petroleum usage, seemingly small efficiencies gained could yield substantial fuel savings. This thesis follows a process of researching and collecting fuel-saving ideas, developing a method to estimate savings, subjecting calculations to sensitivity analyses by discount factor and cost of fuel, and creating prioritization listings of ideas based on predicted savings. Six technique and twelve technology-based initiatives are examined. Calculations are estimated for each idea using inputs from various sources. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the independent variables of fuel price and discount factor and rankings are computed. The prioritized listing of techniques and technologies are stable when subjected to these sensitivity analyses. And as expected, greater savings are realized when the cost of fuel is higher and/or when the discount factor is lower. For several of the practices in this study, fuel savings are shown to be substantial and worthy for consideration despite any involved risk. These findings may be used by decision makers to pursue further testing and evaluation of practices and subsequently confidently implement throughout the surface fleet, knowing that savings will remain robust despite fluctuations in fuel prices.
Download or read book A Preliminary Analysis of Advance Appropriations as a Budgeting Method for Navy Ship Procurements written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Navy shipbuilding program typically comprises a few individually very expensive projects, together with an irregular schedule of new starts. Such a combination can lead to major fluctuations in year-to-year budget totals, even when everything proceeds according to a long-range plan. However, major defense acquisition programs rarely exhibit long-term stability: Changing circumstances dictate changing needs; programs run into problems, causing both schedule and cost overruns; etc. Furthermore, when the Navy prepares its budget, the relatively large shipbuilding portion is occasionally used as a source of funds to meet other needs. The resulting fluctuations in an account as large as shipbuilding (it is usually about 10 percent of the Navy's budget), combined with a budget cycle that normally requires major allocation decisions to be made two to three years before the appropriation year, can pose major problems.
