Download or read book Confused by the Odds written by David Lockwood and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2023-01-24 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the “Long Peace”—the last three-quarters of a century without a global war—and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You’ll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You’ll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You’ll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems—without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.
Download or read book Confused by the Odds written by David Lockwood and published by Greenleaf Book Group Press. This book was released on 2023-01-24 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the "Long Peace"--the last three-quarters of a century without a global war--and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You'll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You'll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You'll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems--without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.
Download or read book Beating the Global Odds written by Paul A. Laudicina and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-10-09 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Answer to Global Overload Contending with the 24/7 news cycle and an endless barrage of choices and information has stymied leadership and decision-making strategies among those at the top. But we all know, this is not a just a problem for the elite. The broad-based reaction to this chaotic, unmanageable assault has been to retrench, and to focus on immediate, controllable decisions. In the process, we lose sight of the horizon. More dangerous still, is the shift we’ve seen from value creation to wealth creation, where information technology 1.0 has enabled a transaction-based society in which the “deal” is more important than the value it drives or the relationships it is based on. On our current path, the odds of a better future are slim. What we need is a new value proposition. Beating the Global Odds is the answer to the dangers of too much of a good thing. There’s no going back, but there is the opportunity to set things right. In this book, Paul A. Laudicina, Managing Partner and Chairman of the Board of global consulting firm A.T. Kearney, provides a fast-paced and engaging tour of how we got to this point and what we can do about it. Drawing on examples from everything from world history and current media to anecdotes from his vast network of CEOs and the world’s most innovative thinkers, Laudicina helps bring our world of seemingly fuzzy and disconnected pixels into sharp focus. The result is a compelling case for change and call to action—not only for global leaders but also for everyone who struggles with the question of how we can inspire and seize a better future… how we can beat the global odds.
Download or read book Categorical Data Analysis for the Behavioral and Social Sciences written by Razia Azen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-01-07 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring a practical approach with numerous examples, this book focuses on helping the reader develop a conceptual, rather than technical, understanding of categorical methods, making it a much more accessible text than others on the market. The authors cover common categorical analyses and emphasize specific research questions that can be addressed by each analytic procedure so that readers are able to address the research questions they wish to answer. To achieve this goal, the authors: Review the theoretical implications and assumptions underlying each of the procedures Present each concept in general terms and illustrate each with a practical example Demonstrate the analyses using SPSS and SAS and show the interpretation of the results provided by these programs. A "Look Ahead" section at the beginning of each chapter provides an overview of the material covered so that the reader knows what to expect. This is followed by one or more research questions that can be addressed using the procedure(s) covered in the chapter. A theoretical presentation of the material is provided and illustrated using realistic examples from the behavioral and social sciences. To further enhance accessibility, the new procedures introduced in the book are explicitly related to analytic procedures covered in earlier statistics courses, such as ANOVA and linear regression. Throughout each chapter the authors use practical examples to demonstrate how to obtain and interpret statistical output in both SPSS and SAS. Their emphasis on the relationship between the initial research question, the use of the software to carry out the analysis, and the interpretation of the output as it relates to the initial research question, allows readers to easily apply the material to their own research. The data sets for executing chapter examples using SAS Version 9.1.3 and/or IBM SPSS Version 18 are available on a book specific web site. These data sets and syntax allow readers to quickly run the programs and obtain the appropriate output. The book also includes both conceptual and analytic end-of-chapter exercises to assist instructors and students in evaluating the understanding of the material covered in each chapter. This book covers the most commonly used categorical data analysis procedures. It is written for those without an extensive mathematical background, and is ideal for graduate courses in categorical data analysis or cross-classified data analysis taught in departments of psychology, human development & family studies, sociology, education, and business. Researchers in these disciplines interested in applying these procedures to their own research will appreciate this book’s accessible approach.
Download or read book Multilevel Modeling of Categorical Outcomes Using IBM SPSS written by Ronald H Heck and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-07 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first workbook that introduces the multilevel approach to modeling with categorical outcomes using IBM SPSS Version 20. Readers learn how to develop, estimate, and interpret multilevel models with categorical outcomes. The authors walk readers through data management, diagnostic tools, model conceptualization, and model specification issues related to single-level and multilevel models with categorical outcomes. Screen shots clearly demonstrate techniques and navigation of the program. Modeling syntax is provided in the appendix. Examples of various types of categorical outcomes demonstrate how to set up each model and interpret the output. Extended examples illustrate the logic of model development, interpretation of output, the context of the research questions, and the steps around which the analyses are structured. Readers can replicate examples in each chapter by using the corresponding data and syntax files available at www.psypress.com/9781848729568. The book opens with a review of multilevel with categorical outcomes, followed by a chapter on IBM SPSS data management techniques to facilitate working with multilevel and longitudinal data sets. Chapters 3 and 4 detail the basics of the single-level and multilevel generalized linear model for various types of categorical outcomes. These chapters review underlying concepts to assist with trouble-shooting common programming and modeling problems. Next population-average and unit-specific longitudinal models for investigating individual or organizational developmental processes are developed. Chapter 6 focuses on single- and multilevel models using multinomial and ordinal data followed by a chapter on models for count data. The book concludes with additional trouble shooting techniques and tips for expanding on the modeling techniques introduced. Ideal as a supplement for graduate level courses and/or professional workshops on multilevel, longitudinal, latent variable modeling, multivariate statistics, and/or advanced quantitative techniques taught in psychology, business, education, health, and sociology, this practical workbook also appeals to researchers in these fields. An excellent follow up to the authors’ highly successful Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling with IBM SPSS and Introduction to Multilevel Modeling Techniques, 2nd Edition, this book can also be used with any multilevel and/or longitudinal book or as a stand-alone text introducing multilevel modeling with categorical outcomes.
Download or read book Stochastic Processes Estimation and Control written by Jason L. Speyer and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2008-11-06 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors provide a comprehensive treatment of stochastic systems from the foundations of probability to stochastic optimal control. The book covers discrete- and continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems leading to the derivation of the Kalman filter, its properties, and its relation to the frequency domain Wiener filter aswell as the dynamic programming derivation of the linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) and the linear exponential Gaussian (LEG) controllers and their relation to HÝsubscript 2¨ and HÝsubscript Ýinfinity¨¨ controllers and system robustness. This book is suitable for first-year graduate students in electrical, mechanical, chemical, and aerospace engineering specializing in systems and control. Students in computer science, economics, and possibly business will also find it useful.
Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2002 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Download or read book Surprises in Probability written by Henk Tijms and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together a variety of probability applications through entertaining stories that will appeal to a broad readership. What are the best stopping rules for the dating problem? What can Bayes’ formula tell us about the chances of a Champions League draw for soccer teams being rigged? How could syndicates win millions of lottery dollars by buying a multitude of tickets at the right time? What’s the best way to manage your betting bankroll in a game in which you have an edge? How to use probability to debunk quacks and psychic mediums? How can the Monte Carlo simulation be used to solve a wide variety of probability problems? Are seven riffle shuffles of a standard deck of 52 playing cards enough for randomness? Provides seventeen engaging stories that illustrate ideas in probability. Written so as to be suitable for those with minimal mathematical background. Stories can be read independently. Can be used as examples and exercises for teaching introductory probability. These questions and many more are addressed in seventeen short chapters that can be read independently. The engaging stories are instructive and demonstrate valuable probabilistic ideas. They offer students material that they most likely don’t learn in class, and offer teachers a new way of teaching their subject.
Download or read book Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists written by Mark Muse and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists "Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists is a remarkably thorough introductory textbook for integrating psychotropic drug prescribing into psychological practices. It covers basic concepts in physiology, neurology, and pharmacology in easily understood language. Not only is this book a requirement for any psychologist seeking to gain prescriptive authority, but it is also helpful for any mental health clinician who collaborates with prescribers of any discipline. I recommend it highly." Daniel Carlat, MD, Editor in Chief of The Carlat Psychiatry Report "An important resource for any psychologist who is preparing to become a prescribing psychologist or for any psychologist who wants to be informed about the practice of medical psychology." Joseph E. Comaty, PhD, MP, coauthor of A Primer of Drug Action "Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists is an excellent treatise written by psychologists for psychologists." From the Foreword by Patrick H. DeLeon, PhD, and Jack G. Wiggins, PhD, former presidents of the American Psychological Association An essential and practical guide to integrating psychopharmacology into clinical practice Edited by medical psychologists with contributions by notable experts in their respective specialties, Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists covers key topics including: Ethics, standards of care, laws, and regulations relevant to clinical psychopharmacology Disorders of the nervous system, with particular relevance to psychopharmacology Use of comprehensive diagnostic strategies to establish differential diagnoses among possible medical and psychological symptoms Integration of pharmacotherapy with psychotherapy This essential book also provides an introduction to the qualifying exam for psychologists seeking specialty training in psychopharmacology, the Psychopharmacology Exam for Psychologists (PEP). The PEP-like practice test is available on the companion CD-ROM.
Download or read book Philosophical Foundations of Probability Theory written by Roy Weatherford and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1982, Philosophical Foundations of Probability Theory starts with the uses we make of the concept in everyday life and then examines the rival theories that seek to account for these applications. It offers a critical exposition of the major philosophical theories of probability, with special attention given to the metaphysical and epistemological assumptions and implications of each. The Classical Theory suggests probability is simply the ratio of favorable cases to all equi-possible cases: it is this theory that is relied on by gamblers and by most non-specialists. The A Priori Theory, on the other hand, describes probability as a logical relation between statements based on evidence. The Relative Frequency theories locate it not in logic but among empirical rates of occurrence in the real world, while the Subjectivist Theory identifies probability with the degree of a person’s belief in a proposition. Each of these types of theory is examined in turn, and the treatment is unified by the use of running examples and parallel analyses of each theory. The final chapter includes a summary and the author’s conclusions. This book is an essential read for scholars and researchers of Philosophy.
Download or read book An Introduction to Multilevel Modeling Techniques written by Ronald H. Heck and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-05 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Univariate and multivariate multilevel models are used to understand how to design studies and analyze data in this comprehensive text distinguished by its variety of applications from the educational, behavioral, and social sciences. Basic and advanced models are developed from the multilevel regression (MLM) and latent variable (SEM) traditions within one unified analytic framework for investigating hierarchical data. The authors provide examples using each modeling approach and also explore situations where alternative approaches may be more appropriate, given the research goals. Numerous examples and exercises allow readers to test their understanding of the techniques presented. Changes to the new edition include: -The use of Mplus 7.2 for running the analyses including the input and data files at www.routledge.com/9781848725522. -Expanded discussion of MLM and SEM model-building that outlines the steps taken in the process, the relevant Mplus syntax, and tips on how to evaluate the models. -Expanded pedagogical program now with chapter objectives, boldfaced key terms, a glossary, and more tables and graphs to help students better understand key concepts and techniques. -Numerous, varied examples developed throughout which make this book appropriate for use in education, psychology, business, sociology, and the health sciences. -Expanded coverage of missing data problems in MLM using ML estimation and multiple imputation to provide currently-accepted solutions (Ch. 10). -New chapter on three-level univariate and multilevel multivariate MLM models provides greater options for investigating more complex theoretical relationships(Ch.4). -New chapter on MLM and SEM models with categorical outcomes facilitates the specification of multilevel models with observed and latent outcomes (Ch.8). -New chapter on multilevel and longitudinal mixture models provides readers with options for identifying emergent groups in hierarchical data (Ch.9). -New chapter on the utilization of sample weights, power analysis, and missing data provides guidance on technical issues of increasing concern for research publication (Ch.10). Ideal as a text for graduate courses on multilevel, longitudinal, latent variable modeling, multivariate statistics, or advanced quantitative techniques taught in psychology, business, education, health, and sociology, this book’s practical approach also appeals to researchers. Recommended prerequisites are introductory univariate and multivariate statistics.
Download or read book The Complete Problem Solver written by John R. Hayes and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-04-03 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume returns in its second edition, revised and updated with the latest advances in problem solving research. It is designed to provide readers with skills that will make them better problem solvers and to give up-to-date information about the psychology of problem solving. Professor Hayes provides students and professionals with practical, tested methods of defining, representing, and solving problems. Each discussion of the important aspects of human problem solving is supported by the most current research on the psychology problem solving. The Complete Problem Solver, Second Edition features: *Valuable learning strategies; *Decision making methods; *Discussions of the nature of creativity and invention, and *A new chapter on writing. The Complete Problem Solver utilizes numerous examples, diagrams, illustrations, and charts to help any reader become better at problem solving. See the order form for the answer to the problem below.
Download or read book Essential Math for Data Science written by Thomas Nield and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2022-05-26 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master the math needed to excel in data science, machine learning, and statistics. In this book author Thomas Nield guides you through areas like calculus, probability, linear algebra, and statistics and how they apply to techniques like linear regression, logistic regression, and neural networks. Along the way you'll also gain practical insights into the state of data science and how to use those insights to maximize your career. Learn how to: Use Python code and libraries like SymPy, NumPy, and scikit-learn to explore essential mathematical concepts like calculus, linear algebra, statistics, and machine learning Understand techniques like linear regression, logistic regression, and neural networks in plain English, with minimal mathematical notation and jargon Perform descriptive statistics and hypothesis testing on a dataset to interpret p-values and statistical significance Manipulate vectors and matrices and perform matrix decomposition Integrate and build upon incremental knowledge of calculus, probability, statistics, and linear algebra, and apply it to regression models including neural networks Navigate practically through a data science career and avoid common pitfalls, assumptions, and biases while tuning your skill set to stand out in the job market
Download or read book Log Linear Models written by Ronald Christensen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-14 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines log-linear models for contingency tables. Logistic re gression and logistic discrimination are treated as special cases and gener alized linear models (in the GLIM sense) are also discussed. The book is designed to fill a niche between basic introductory books such as Fienberg (1980) and Everitt (1977) and advanced books such as Bishop, Fienberg, and Holland (1975), Haberman (1974), and Santner and Duffy (1989). lt is primarily directed at advanced Masters degree students in Statistics but it can be used at both higher and lower levels. The primary theme of the book is using previous knowledge of analysis of variance and regression to motivate and explicate the use of log-linear models. Of course, both the analogies and the distinctions between the different methods must be kept in mind. The book is written at several levels. A basic introductory course would take material from Chapters I, II (deemphasizing Section II. 4), III, Sec tions IV. 1 through IV. 5 (eliminating the material on graphical models), Section IV. lü, Chapter VII, and Chapter IX. The advanced modeling ma terial at the end of Sections VII. 1, VII. 2, and possibly the material in Section IX. 2 should be deleted in a basic introductory course. For Mas ters degree students in Statistics, all the material in Chapters I through V, VII, IX, and X should be accessible. For an applied Ph. D.
Download or read book Midnight Shadows written by Garrett Kam and published by Trafford Publishing. This book was released on 2005-12-20 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An innocent Balinese family is caught in the deadly crossfire between between opposing sides after the alleged Communist coup fails in Indonesia in 1965. Supernatural forces bring about divine retribution in this exciting tale of mysticism and morality. It looks at the reasons behind the terrible violence that engulfed the island by interweaving actual events and history with mythology, dreams and rituals.
Download or read book A History of Inverse Probability written by Andrew I. Dale and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-09-08 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a history of the use of Bayes theoremfrom its discovery by Thomas Bayes to the rise of the statistical competitors in the first part of the twentieth century. The book focuses particularly on the development of one of the fundamental aspects of Bayesian statistics, and in this new edition readers will find new sections on contributors to the theory. In addition, this edition includes amplified discussion of relevant work.
Download or read book Basic Probability What Every Math Student Should Know Second Edition written by Henk Tijms and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2021-07-07 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition represents an ongoing effort to make probability accessible to students in a wide range of fields such as mathematics, statistics and data science, engineering, computer science, and business analytics. The book is written for those learning about probability for the first time. Revised and updated, the book is aimed specifically at statistics and data science students who need a solid introduction to the basics of probability.While retaining its focus on basic probability, including Bayesian probability and the interface between probability and computer simulation, this edition's significant revisions are as follows:The approach followed in the book is to develop probabilistic intuition before diving into details. The best way to learn probability is by practising on a lot of problems. Many instructive problems together with problem-solving strategies are given. Answers to all problems and worked-out solutions to selected problems are also provided.Henk Tijms is the author of several textbooks in the area of applied probability. In 2008, he had received the prestigious INFORMS Expository Writing Award for his work. He is active in popularizing probability at Dutch high schools.
