Download or read book Comparative Study on Asset Pricing Models in Explaining Cross Sectional Variation of Stock Returns in the Colombo Stock Exchange written by M.I.M. Riyath and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study intends to identify the better model in explaining variations of average stock returns of listed companies in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) when time series and cross sectional regressions are employed. The sample consists of all stocks listed in the main board of the CSE except Bank, Finance and Insurance Sector during the period from 1997 to 2014. The methodology used to form factor mimicking portfolios to estimate risk factors and portfolio returns is similar to the methodology of Fama and French 1993 and 2012 and to test the performance of asset pricing models Fama and MacBeth (1973) two step procedure is employed. The Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken (GRS) (1989) F-test reveals that the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a poor model whereas the Fama and French (1993) Three Factor Model (FF3FM) and Carhart (1997) Four Factor Model (C4FM) are better models in explaining the cross sectional variations of stock returns of the listed companies in the CSE when time series regressions are employed. Fama-Macbeth t-test reveals that the C4FM is the only valid model in the size-BM sorted portfolios. The C4FM is found to be a superior model and performs better than FF3FM, Reward Beta Model (RBM) and CAPM and also the explanatory power of the FF3FM is comparatively better than both CAPM and RBM in explaining the cross section of stock returns of listed companies in the CSE.

Download or read book A Cross sectional Analysis of Stock Returns written by Michael Hasler and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Niels Joachim Christfort Gormsen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Asset Pricing Model Selection written by Rowland Bismark Pasaribu and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has dominated finance theory for over thirty years; it suggests that the market beta alone is sufficient to explain stock returns. However evidence shows that the cross-section of stock returns cannot be described solely by the one-factor CAPM. Therefore, the idea is to add other factors in order to complete the beta in explaining the price movements in the stock exchange. The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) has been proposed as the first multifactor successor to the CAPM without being a real success. Later, researchers support that average stock returns are related to some fundamental factors such as size, book-to-market equity and momentum. Alternative studies come as a response to the poor performance of the standard CAPM. They argue that investors choose their portfolio by using not only the first two moments but also the skewness and kurtosis. The main contribution of this paper is comparison between the CAPM, the Fama and French asset pricing model (TPFM) and the Four Factor Pricing Model (FFPM) adding the third and fourth moments to calculate expected return of non-financial Indonesian listed firms. The selection of the best model is based on the highest coefficient of determination. The kurtosis-FFPM turned out to be the best model.

Download or read book Essays on Predicting and Explaining the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Xun Zhong and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation consists of three chapters that study various aspects of stock return predictability. In the first chapter, I explore the interplay between the aggregation of information about stock returns and p-hacking. P-hacking refers to the practice of trying out various variables and model specifications until the result appears to be statistically significant, that is, the p-value of the test statistic is below a particular threshold. The standard information aggregation techniques exacerbate p-hacking by increasing the probability of the type I error. I propose an aggregation technique, which is a simple modification of 3PRF/PLS, that has an opposite property: the predictability tests applied to the combined predictor become more conservative in the presence of p-hacking. I quantify the advantages of my approach relative to the standard information aggregation techniques by using simulations. As an illustration, I apply the modified 3PRF/PLS to three sets of return predictors proposed in the literature and find that the forecasting ability of combined predictors in two cases cannot be explained by p-hacking. In the second chapter, I explore whether the stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of five characteristic-based asset pricing models can be explained by a large set of macroeconomic shocks. Characteristic-based factor models are linear models whose risk factors are returns on trading strategies based on firm characteristics. Such models are very popular in finance because of their superior ability to explain the cross-section of expected stock returns, but they are also criticized for their lack of interpretability. Each characteristic-based factor model is uniquely characterized by its SDF. To approximate the SDFs by a comprehensive set of 131 macroeconomic shocks without overfitting, I employ the elastic net regression, which is a machine learning technique. I find that the best combination of macroeconomic shocks can explain only a relatively small part of the variation in the SDFs, and the whole set of macroeconomic shocks approximates the SDFs not better than only few shocks. My findings suggest that behavioral factors and sentiment are important determinants of asset prices. The third chapter investigates whether investors efficiently aggregate analysts' earnings forecasts and whether combinations of the forecasts can predict announcement returns. The traditional consensus forecast of earnings used by academics and practitioners is the simple average of all analysts' earnings forecasts (Naive Consensus). However, this measure ignores that there exists a cross-sectional variation in analysts' forecast accuracy and persistence in such accuracy. I propose a consensus that is an accuracy-weighted average of all analysts' earnings forecasts (Smart Consensus). I find that Smart Consensus is a more accurate predictor of firms' earnings per share (EPS) than Naive Consensus. If investors weight forecasts efficiently according to the analysts' forecast accuracy, the market reaction to earnings announcements should be positively related to the difference between firms' reported earnings and Smart Consensus (Smart Surprise) and should be unrelated to the difference between firms' reported earnings and Naive Consensus (Naive Surprise). However, I find that market reaction to earnings announcements is positively related to both measures. Thus, investors do not aggregate forecasts efficiently. In addition, I find that the market reaction to Smart Surprise is stronger in stocks with higher institutional ownership. A trading strategy based on Expectation Gap, which is the difference between Smart and Naive Consensuses, generates positive risk-adjusted returns in the three-day window around earnings announcements.

Download or read book An Evaluation of International Asset Pricing Models written by Magnus Dahlquist and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the ability of international asset pricing models to explain the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. All the models considered seem to capture national market returns fairly well. However, global portfolios, sorted on earnings-price ratio and market value, pose a special challenge. We find that an unconditional international CAPM cannot explain the cross-sectional variation in these portfolio returns. Interestingly, a conditional international asset pricing model that includes foreign exchange risk factors is able to explain a large part of the variation in average returns. Our empirical work suggests that this model has the same explanatory ability as an international three-factor model, where zero-cost portfolios based on earnings-price ratios and market values are used in addition to the world market portfolio. Importantly, the loadings associated with the zero-cost portfolios are driven out by the characteristics themselves, indicating a misspecification.

Download or read book Global Stock Markets written by Wolfgang Drobetz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000-10-30 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wolfgang Drobetz provides empirical evidence on the time variation of expected stock returns over the stages of the business cycle.

Download or read book Evidence to Support Multifactor Asset Pricing Models written by Supriya Maheshwari and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging stock market returns have been extensively studied by academic community over the past two decades. However, there is still no consensus among the researchers and practitioners as to which asset pricing models should be used to explain returns in these markets. The basic objective of the study is to evaluate the power and performance of multi-factor asset pricing models (three and four factor model) over the traditional one factor CAPM, using the data from one of the fastest growing emerging market: India. The study using a large sample data of 470 listed stocks over a period of 16 years stretching from January 1997 to March 2013, evaluate the relevance of Fama and French three factor model as well as liquidity augmented four factor model in explaining the stock return variations in the Indian stock market. The study employs time series regression approach to examine the impact of market risk, size risk, value risk and liquidity risk on stock returns. The overall results of the study provide support to the multi-dimensional nature of risk and suggest the use of multi-factor asset pricing models for consideration in investment decisions. Both Fama and French three factor model and liquidity augmented four factor model were found to be superior than traditional one factor CAPM. Though, liquidity augmented four factor model was found to be slightly better in explaining Indian stock returns as compared to Fama and French three factor model.

Download or read book A Comparison of Discount Rate Models Using International Stock Market Data written by Kenneth Allan Kasa and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Testing a Multi Factor Capital Asset Pricing Model in the Jordanian Stock Market written by Dr. Mohammad Elshqirat and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A valid and accurate capital asset pricing model (CAPM) may help investors and mutual funds managers in determining expected returns which may lead to increase their profits and community resources. The problem is that the traditional CAPM does not accurately predict the expected rate of return. A more accurate model is needed to help investors in determining the intrinsic price of the financial asset they want to sell or buy. The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the single-factor CAPM and then develop and test a multifactor CAPM in the Jordanian stock market. The study was informed by the modern portfolio theory and specifically by the single-factor CAPM developed by Sharpe, Lintner, and Mossin. The research questions for the study examined the factors that may explain the variation in the expected rate of return on stocks in the Jordanian stock market and the relationship between the expected rate of return and factors of market return, company size, financial leverage, and operating leverage. A causal-comparative quantitative research design was employed to achieve the purpose of the study by testing the listed companies on the Amman stock exchange (ASE) for the period from 2000 to 2015. Data were collected from the ASE database and analyzed using the multiple regression model and t test. The results revealed that market return, company size, and financial leverage are not predictors of the expected rate of return while operating leverage is a predictor.

Download or read book Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Conventional and Downside Frameworks written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have often found inconclusive evidence when explaining the beta risk-return relationship in the unconditional framework. This thesis analyses the unconditional and the conditional risk-return relationship on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (formerly Jakarta Stock Exchange) over the period 1996-2006. Both the conventional pricing framework and the downside pricing framework are employed to see which of the two may describe the behaviour of the Indonesian stock market better. As predicted, we found that the unconditional model fails to explain the risk-return cross-sectional relationship. In the conditional model based on market condition (up/down), this thesis finds a consistent and highly significant relationship between the CAPM beta and cross-sectional portfolios returns. In periods where excess market returns are negative, an inverse relationship between beta and portfolios returns exists. In periods where excess market returns are positive we find support for a positive risk-return relationship. Further, this thesis investigates whether the risk-return relation varies depending on the level of market volatility. Two market regimes based on the level of conditional volatility of market returns are specified - "low" and "high". The low and high volatility regimes are delineated with 3rd quartile, 90th percentile and median as the threshold parameters. In the low volatility regime the beta risk premium and downside beta risk premium are significantly different from zero. However, their signs are opposite to what is expected. In the models under the conventional framework skewness appears to be priced only in the up market and in the high volatility regime. However, when the market movement (up/down) and market volatility are incorporated as conditioning variables we found that the beta risk premium produces a significantly strong relationship with returns which is significantly positive in the up market and negative in the down market.

Download or read book Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing written by Xiang Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays on empirical asset pricing around three themes: evaluating linear factor asset pricing models by comparing their misspecified measures, understanding the long-run risk on consumption-leisure to investigate their pricing performances on cross-sectional returns, and evaluating conditional asset pricing models by using the methodology of dynamic cross-sectional regressions. The first chapter is ̀̀Comparing Asset Pricing Models: What does the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance Tell Us?''. It compares the relative performance of some important linear asset pricing models based on the Hansen-Jagannathan (HJ) distance using data over a long sample period from 1952-2011 based on U.S. market. The main results are as follows: first, among return-based linear models, the Fama-French (1993) five-factor model performs best in terms of the normalized pricing errors, compared with the other candidates. On the other hand, the macro-factor model of Chen, Roll, and Ross (1986) five-factor is not able to explain industry portfolios: its performance is even worse than that of the classical CAPM. Second, the Yogo (2006) non-durable and durable consumption model is the least misspecified, among consumption-based asset pricing models, in capturing the spread in industry and size portfolios. Third, the Lettau and Ludvigson (2002) scaled consumption-based CAPM (C-CAPM) model obtains the smallest normalized pricing errors pricing gross and excess returns on size portfolios, respectively, while Santos and Veronesi (2006) scaled C-CAPM model does better in explain the return spread on portfolios of U.S. government bonds. The second chapter (̀̀Leisure, Consumption and Long Run Risk: An Empirical Evaluation'') uses a long-run risk model with non-separable leisure and consumption, and studies its ability to price equity returns on a variety of portfolios of U.S. stocks using data from 1948-2011. It builds on early work by Eichenbaum et al. (1988) that explores the empirical properties of intertemporal asset pricing models where the representative agent has utility over consumption and leisure. Here we use the framework in Uhlig (2007) that allows for a stochastic discount factor with news about long-run growth in consumption and leisure. To evaluate our long-run model, we assess its performance relative to standard asset pricing models in explaining the cross-section of returns across size, industry and value-growth portfolios. We find that the long-run consumption-leisure model cannot be rejected by the J-statistic and it does better than the standard C-CAPM, the Yogo durable consumption and Fama-French three-factor models. We also rank the normalized pricing errors using the HJ distance: our model has a smaller HJ distance than other candidate models. Our paper is the first, as far as we are aware, to use leisure data with adjusted working hours as a measure of leisure i.e., defined as the difference between a fixed time endowment and the observable hours spent on working, home production, schooling, communication, and personal care (Yang (2010)). The third essay: ̀̀Empirical Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: An Economic Perspective'' uses dynamic Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions and tests the performance of several important conditional asset pricing models when allowing for time-varying price of risk. It compares the performance of conditional asset pricing models, in terms of their ability to explain the cross-section of returns across momentum, industry, value-growth and government bond portfolios. We use the new methodology introduced by Adrian et al. (2012). Our main results are as follows: first we find that the Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) conditional model does better than other models in explaining the cross-section of momentum and value-growth portfolios. Second we find that the Piazessi et al. (2007) consumption model does better than others in pricing the cross-section of industry portfolios. Finally, we find that in the case of the cross-section of risk premia on U.S. government bond portfolios the conditional model in Santos and Veronesi (2006) outperforms other candidate models. Overall, however, the Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) model does better than other candidate models. Our main contributions here is using a recently developed method of dynamic Fama-MacBeth regressions to evaluate the performance of leading conditional CAPM (C-CAPM) models in a common set of test assets over the time period from 1951-2012.

Download or read book Essays on the Cross sectional and Time series Behavior of Stock Returns written by Vinod Chandrashekaran and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Anomalies and Stock Returns written by Philip Gharghori and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior research has identified the existence of several cross-sectional patterns in equity returns, commonly referred to as effects. This paper empirically tests for the existence of a number of well known effects using data from the Australian equities market. Specifically, we investigate the size effect, book-to-market effect, earnings to price effect, cash flow to price effect, leverage effect and the liquidity effect. Fama and French (1996) note that patterns in average returns that cannot be explained by the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are considered anomalies. An additional aim of this paper is to investigate the capability of the CAPM and the Fama and French (1993) multifactor model (FFM) in explaining any observed anomalies. We document a size, book to market, earnings to price and cash flow to price effect but fail to find evidence of a leverage or liquidity effect. Although our results indicate that the FFM is superior to the CAPM in explaining cross-sectional variation in equity returns, we conclude that its performance is less than satisfactory in Australia.

Download or read book Death of the Capital Asset Pricing Model written by Min Deng and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The expected return of the stock described by the Portfolio Theory and the CAPM is not the true expected return of the stock in the real-life world. In the real-life world, the expected return could not replace the actual return of the stock, variance of the return could not replace the risk of the stock, and there is no trade-off between the expected return and variance of the return of the stock.An intensive analysis of the central prediction along with its implications which constitute the core of the CAPM lead to the following conclusions: (i) As a model of the determination of the expected return of the stock, the CAPM does not include the true expected return of the stock in the real-life world, which is the most critical factor. The CAPM is an unscientific description of the determination of the expected return of the stock in the real-life world, investors could not use it to calculate the true expected return of the stock in the real-life world. (ii) As a stock pricing model, the CAPM is an untrue description of the actual stock pricing in the real-life world. The CAPM can neither scientifically describe the actual stock pricing mechanism and process nor provide quantitative explanations on the formation of the actual return of the stock. The CAPM basically mixes up the determination of the expected return of the stock and the determination of the pricing of the stock, which are two issues of an entirely different nature. (iii) The CAPM central prediction that market portfolio is a mean-variance efficient portfolio is not supported by the real world data. In the real world, there is neither linear relationship nor any other relationship between the expected return of the stock and beta. Differences in betas are fully incapable of explaining the differences in expected returns across stocks and portfolios, beta is not the reasonable measure of the actual risk of the stock. (iv) The conclusion of this paper confirms with the current consensus within the profession that beta--the single risk factor is not quite enough for describing the cross-section of the expected returns of the stock.

Download or read book Cross Sectional Asset Pricing with Individual Stocks written by Tarun Chordia and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a methodology for bias-corrected return-premium estimation from cross-sectional regressions of individual stock returns on betas and firm characteristics. Over the period 1963-2014, there is some evidence of a negative premium on the size factor and positive beta premiums for the profitability and investment factors as well as the market factor (though not for the CAPM). There is no pricing evidence for the book-to-market and momentum factors with all characteristics included. Characteristics consistently explain a much larger proportion of variation in estimated expected returns than factor loadings, even with time-varying return premia.

Download or read book A Measure of Stock Market Integration for Developed and Emerging Markets written by Robert A. Korajczyk and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1995 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: