Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Download or read book Commodity trade and price trends written by and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Commodity studies and projections written by Robert R. Nathan Associates and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 618 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting commodity prices using long short term memory neural networks written by Ly, Racine and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-10 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies a recurrent neural network (RNN) method to forecast cotton and oil prices. We show how these new tools from machine learning, particularly Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) models, complement traditional methods. Our results show that machine learning methods fit reasonably well with the data but do not outperform systematically classical methods such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) or the naïve models in terms of out of sample forecasts. However, averaging the forecasts from the two type of models provide better results compared to either method. Compared to the ARIMA and the LSTM, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the average forecast was 0.21 and 21.49 percent lower, respectively, for cotton. For oil, the forecast averaging does not provide improvements in terms of RMSE. We suggest using a forecast averaging method and extending our analysis to a wide range of commodity prices.

Download or read book Medium term Prospects for Agricultural Commodities written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2003 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: FAO projections of production, demand and trade have a variety of uses, including providing a basis for global perspective studies, commodity policy analysis and for assessing future food security and nutritional problems in developing countries, as well being used by national planning agencies and other agencies to give an international framework for national agricultural commodity policy and investment strategies. This publication, the first of a new series, gives projections for the global agricultural commodity outlook to the year 2010, including basic food and feed crops, livestock products, tropical beverages, selected fruit and agricultural raw materials by country and region.

Download or read book Reference List of Studies on Projections of Demand and Supply of Agricultural Commodities Part I Food Commodities written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Library and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book U S Deepwater Port Study written by Robert R. Nathan associates, inc and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 603 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Prospects for Global Food Security written by Alex F. McCalla and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2001 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Projections of Demand and Supply of Agricultural Commodities written by National Council of Applied Economic Research and published by New Delhi. This book was released on 1970 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book U S Deepwater Port Study Commodity studies and projections written by Robert R. Nathan Associates and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1984 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book U S Deepwater Port Study written by Robert R. Nathan associates, inc and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Reference List of Studies on Projections of Demand and Supply of Agricultural Commodities written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Commodity Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Walter C. Labys and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-02-01 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.

Download or read book Forecasting Commodity Prices written by Harry Jiler and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides background to help forecasting price movements in twenty different commodity future markets and studies the price forecasting with the aid of charts.

Download or read book International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis written by O. Güvenen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com modity markets.