Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Download or read book Agricultural Prices and Commodity Market Analysis written by John N. Ferris and published by MSU Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agricultural Prices and Commodity MarketAnalysis discusses the application of economictheory to agriculture and the foodindustry, using quantitative tools. The blendof theory and application is unique in detailinghow demand and supply can be measuredand how econometric simulationmodels can be constructed and evaluated.This revised edition focuses on forecastingand generating long-term projections as wellas discussing the relatively unexplored areaof stochastic modeling, which is critical inhandling crop yield variability. Other topicscovered include agricultural policy analysisand futures/options markets. The role oftime series models in improving structuralequations and forecasting techniques providesa capstone.
Download or read book Sure Thing Commodity Trading written by Larry Williams and published by Windsor Books/Probus. This book was released on 1998-01-13 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a major breakthrough in successful commodity trading, featuring a systematic trading program with documented proof that 7 winners out of every 8 seasonal tendency commodity trades achieved an outstanding $687,942 gain.
Download or read book Commodities and Commodity Derivatives written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-24 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV
Download or read book Charting Commodity Market Price Behavior written by L. Dee Belveal and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1985 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Commodity Prices written by Mr.Peter Wickham and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed weakness. The appropriate policy response to a terms of trade shock depends importantly on whether the shock is perceived to be temporary or permanent. Our results indicate that the recent weakness in commodity prices is mostly of a secular nature, stressing the need for commodity exporting countries to concentrate on export diversification and other structural policies. There is, however, scope for stabilization funds and the use of hedging strategies since the evidence also suggests commodity prices have become more volatile.
Download or read book Price Wars written by Rupert Russell and published by Doubleday. This book was released on 2022-02-01 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fascinating, groundbreaking exposé of how commodity traders in New York and London have destabilized societies all over the world, leaving the most vulnerable at the mercy of hunger, chaos, and war. • With a new Afterword for the ebook. For Rupert Russell, the Brexit vote was only the latest shock in a decade full of them: the unstoppable war in Syria, huge migrant flows into Europe, beheadings in Iraq, children placed in cages on the U.S. border. In Price Wars, he sets out on a worldwide journey to investigate what caused the wave of chaos that consumed the world in the 2010s. Russell travels to Tunisia, Iraq, Venezuela, Ukraine, East Africa, and Central America and discovers that unrest in all these places was triggered by dramatic and mysterious swings in the price of essential commodities. Deregulation of the commodities markets means that food prices can shoot up even in years of abundant harvests, causing hunger and protest. Oil prices and real-estate values can surge even when supplies are normal, enriching and emboldening dictators. It is this instability--fueled by banks and hedge funds in faraway New York and London--that has toppled regimes and unsettled the West. Price Wars is a fascinating, original, and groundbreaking exposé of the power of the commodities markets to disrupt the world.
Download or read book Why Have Food Commodity Prices Risen Again written by Ronald Trostle and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between early June 2010 and February 2011, prices of food commodities increased sharply, surpassing the 2008 peaks that had spread anxiety among policymakers and low-income consumers around the world. Most of the long-term trends in agricultural production and consumption that contributed to the 2002-06 price increases and the 2007-08 price spike also contributed to the recent price surge. This report describes the factors that have contributed to the large and rapid increase in agricultural prices during the past year. It focuses particularly on food commodity prices¿which have risen 60 percent since June 2010. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand edition of an important, hard-to-find publication.
Download or read book Handbook of Multi Commodity Markets and Products written by Andrea Roncoroni and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-02-19 with total page 1076 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and ProductsOver recent decades, the marketplace has seen an increasing integration, not only among different types of commodity markets such as energy, agricultural, and metals, but also with financial markets. This trend raises important questions about how to identify and analyse opportunities in and manage risks of commodity products. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products offers traders, commodity brokers, and other professionals a practical and comprehensive manual that covers market structure and functioning, as well as the practice of trading across a wide range of commodity markets and products. Written in non-technical language, this important resource includes the information needed to begin to master the complexities of and to operate successfully in today’s challenging and fluctuating commodity marketplace. Designed as a practical practitioner-orientated resource, the book includes a detailed overview of key markets – oil, coal, electricity, emissions, weather, industrial metals, freight, agricultural and foreign exchange – and contains a set of tools for analysing, pricing and managing risk for the individual markets. Market features and the main functioning rules of the markets in question are presented, along with the structure of basic financial products and standardised deals. A range of vital topics such as stochastic and econometric modelling, market structure analysis, contract engineering, as well as risk assessment and management are presented and discussed in detail with illustrative examples to commodity markets. The authors showcase how to structure and manage both simple and more complex multi-commodity deals. Addressing the issues of profit-making and risk management, the book reveals how to exploit pay-off profiles and trading strategies on a diversified set of commodity prices. In addition, the book explores how to price energy products and other commodities belonging to markets segmented across specific structural features. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products includes a wealth of proven methods and useful models that can be selected and developed in order to make appropriate estimations of the future evolution of prices and appropriate valuations of products. The authors additionally explore market risk issues and what measures of risk should be adopted for the purpose of accurately assessing exposure from multi-commodity portfolios. This vital resource offers the models, tools, strategies and general information commodity brokers and other professionals need to succeed in today’s highly competitive marketplace.
Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Download or read book The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and the New Inflation written by Barry Bosworth and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 1982 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of primary commodities in industries economies; The contribution of primary commodity price increases to inflation; Sources of commodity price fluctuations; Grain and petroleum: the role of institutional changes; The policy choices: some general considerations; Commodity stabilization policies: some specific proposals.
Download or read book The Comovement in Commodity Prices written by Mr.Ron Alquist and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-05 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.
Download or read book The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices written by Mr.Shaun K. Roache and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper uses an event study methodology to investigate which and how macroeconomic announcements affect commodity prices. Results show that gold is unique among commodities, with prices reacting to specific scheduled announcements in the United States and the Euro area (such as indicators of activity or interest rate decisions) in a manner consistent with gold's traditional role as a safe-haven and store of value. Other commodity prices, where such news is significant, exhibit pro-cyclical sensitivities and these have risen somewhat as commodities have become increasingly financialized. These results are important for those trading in the commodity markets on a frequent basis and long-term market participants that take their decisions based on information on price fundamentals, which are reflected in the release of macroeconomic announcements.
Download or read book Wholesale Commodity Prices in the United States 1700 1861 written by Arthur Harrison Cole and published by . This book was released on 1938 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
