Download or read book Cointegration and Detectable Linear and Nonlinear Causality written by An-Sing Chen and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper applies linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic relation between London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices and three possible predictors. The analysis uses matched quarterly inventory, UK Treasury bill interest rates, futures prices and cash prices for the commodity lead traded on the LME. We also examine the effects of cointegration on both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. When cointegration is not modeled, we find evidence of both linear and nonlinear causality between cash prices and analyzed predictor variables. However, after controlling for cointegration, we no longer find evidence of significant nonlinear causality. Our results contribute to the empirical literature on commodity price forecasting by highlighting the relationship between cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality. We also illustrate the importance of interest rate and inventory as well as futures price in forecasting cash prices. Our failure to detect significant nonlinearity after controlling for cointegration may also go some way to explaining the reason for the disappointing forecasting performances of many nonlinear models in the general finance literature. It may be that the variables are correct, but the functional form is overly complex and a standard VAR or VECM may often apply.

Download or read book Cointegration Causality and Forecasting written by Halbert White and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1999 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world's leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with and/or studied with both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Granger's work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.

Download or read book Sustainable Housing written by Amjad Almusaed and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2022-02-23 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sustainable housing is generally used to describe housing that is environmentally friendly and resource-efficient over the lifetime of the building. Homes are designed to have the least possible negative impact on the environment. This means energy efficiency, avoiding environmental toxins, and responsibly using materials and resources while having positive physical and psychological effects on inhabitants. This book presents a comprehensive overview of sustainable housing, starting from legislation and ending with the design and configuration of homes.

Download or read book Noneparametric methods in economics and finance dependence causality and prediction written by Valentyn Panchenko and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2004 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Cointegration written by Bhaskara B. Rao and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: `This most commendable volume brings together a set of papers which permits ready access to the means of estimating quantitative relationships using cointegration and error correction procedures. Providing the data to show fully the basis for calculation, this approach is an excellent perception of the needs of senior undergraduates and graduate students.' - Professor W.P. Hogan, The University of Sydney Applied economists, with modest econometric background, are now desperately looking for expository literature on the unit roots and cointegration techniques. This volume of expository essays is written for them. It explains in a simple style various tests for the existence of unit roots and how to estimate cointegration relationships. Original data are given to enable easy replications. Limitations of some existing unit root tests are also discussed.

Download or read book Cointegration Relationship Between Oil Gold Copper and Silver written by Melike Bildirici and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzed the non-linear ARDL approach and the non-linear Granger co-integration method. The gold price level showed positive asymmetric response to changes in the oil price in the short and long run. This study used the non-linear ARDL method to analyze the relationship between oil prices and gold, silver, and copper prices. To examine these relationships, we used a two-step procedure. In the first step, we analyzed the long-run relationship between the variables by using the non-linear ARDL approach. In the second step, we used a dynamic VEC model to test causal relationships.

Download or read book Recent Developments in Nonlinear Cointegration with Applications to Macroeconomics and Finance written by Gilles Dufrénot and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an introductory exposition of different topics that emerged in the literature as unifying themes between two fields of econometrics of time series, namely nonlinearity and nonstationarity. Papers on these topics have exploded over the last two decades, but they are rarely ex amined together. There is, undoubtedly, a variety of arguments that justify such a separation. But there are also good reasons that motivate their combination. People who are reluctant to a combined analysis might argue that nonlinearity and nonstationarity enhance non-trivial problems, so their combination does not stimulate interest in regard to plausibly increased difficulties. This argument can, however, be balanced by other ones of an economic nature. A predominant idea, today, is that a nonstationary series exhibits persistent deviations from its long-run components (either deterministic or stochastic trends). These persistent deviations are modelized in various ways: unit root models, fractionally integrated processes, models with shifts in the time trend, etc. However, there are many other behaviors inherent to nonstationary processes, that are not reflected in linear models. For instance, economic variables with mixture distributions, or processes that are state-dependent, undergo episodes of changing dynamics. In models with multiple long-run equi libria, the moving from an equilibrium to another sometimes implies hys teresis. Also, it is known that certain shocks can change the economic fundamentals, thereby reducing the possibility that an initial position is re-established after a shock (irreversibility).

Download or read book The Economics of Commodity Markets written by Julien Chevallier and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-19 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As commodity markets have continued their expansion an extensive and complex financial industry has developed to service them. This industry includes hundreds of participating firms, including asset managers, brokers, consultants, verification agencies and a myriad of other institutions. Universities and other training institutions have responded to this rapid expansion of commodity markets as well as their substantial future growth potential by launching specialized courses on the subject. The Economics of Commodity Markets attempts to bridge the gap between academics and working professionals by way of a textbook that is both theoretically informative and practical. Based in part on the authors’ teaching experience of commodity finance at the University Paris Dauphine, the book covers all important commodity markets topics and includes coverage of recent topics such as financial applications and intuitive economic reasoning. The book is composed of three parts that cover: commodity market dynamics, commodities and the business cycle, and commodities and fundamental value. The key original approach to the subject matter lies in a shift away from the descriptive to the econometric analysis of commodity markets. Information on market trends of commodities is presented in the first part, with a strong emphasis on the quantitative treatment of that information in the remaining two parts of the book. Readers are provided with a clear and succinct exposition of up-to-date financial economic and econometric methods as these apply to commodity markets. In addition a number of useful empirical applications are introduced and discussed. This book is a self-contained offering, discussing all key methods and insights without descending into superfluous technicalities. All explanations are structured in an accessible manner, permitting any reader with a basic understanding of mathematics and finance to work their way through all parts of the book without having to resort to external sources.

Download or read book Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Causality Test Between Inflation Rate and Repo Rate written by Katleho Makatjane and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current study investigated a cointegration and nonlinear causality relationships between inflation and repo rates of South Africa using the data spanning the period of January 2002 to March 2016. We used a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) and nonlinear Granger frameworks causality to carry out the analysis. Preliminary analysis of data revealed the expected properties of the data such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and co-movement of the variables. The two variables confirmed to be moving together in the long-run according to the observed supWald test statistic. Finally, the Diks-Panchenko nonlinear Causality test revealed a strong bidirectional nonlinear causal relationship between repo rate and inflation rate. The results imply that the use of repo rate to target the inflation rate during the target period did not address the financial problem in South Africa. Consequently, the study concluded that repo rate may not be a good measure to use for controlling inflation rates of South Africa.

Download or read book Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference Quantitative and Qualitative Methodologies in the Economic Administrative Sciences QMEAS 2013 written by Christos Frangos and published by Christos Frangos. This book was released on with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Cointegration and Causality Among the Onshore and Offshore Markets for China s Currency written by David T. Owyong and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China has taken steps to develop offshore markets for renminbi trading and to liberalize exchange-rate determination in its onshore market. We examine the interaction between onshore and offshore markets with attention to how the interaction has been affected by widening of the onshore trading band first in April 2012 and further in March 2014. Ties between the onshore and offshore markets were closest before the first band widening and steadily loosened thereafter. We further study the co-integration and lead-lag effects between offshore and onshore spot and forward markets and show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between any pair of them. Our results suggest stronger causality running from the spot onshore rate to the spot offshore rate than vice versa. Between the spot and forward markets, there is evidence of bidirectional linear and nonlinear causality, which implies foreign impulses have had an influence on the domestic market.

Download or read book Searching for Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration a New Approach written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Searching for linear and nonlinear cointegration written by F. M. Aparicio and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Cointegration and Nonlinear Causality Amongst Gold Oil and the Indian Stock Market written by Elie Bouri and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The emerging economy of India counts gold and oil amongst its top imports, suggesting that the prices of these resources affect the domestic inflation and stock market. Expectations on future volatility in these prices might lead to changes in the expected (implied) volatility of the Indian stock market. Unlike prior studies, we use implied volatility indices to examine the cointegration and nonlinear causality amongst international gold, crude oil, and the Indian stock market. Results indicate the presence of cointegration relationships and a nonlinear and positive impact of the implied volatilities of gold and oil on the implied volatility of the Indian stock market. Interestingly, there is evidence of an inverse bi-directional causality between the implied volatilities of gold and oil prices.

Download or read book Nonlinear Causality Testing with Stepwise Multivariate Filtering written by Stelios D. Bekiros and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study explores the direction and nature of causal linkages among six currencies denoted relative to United States dollar (USD), namely Euro (EUR), Great Britain Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY), Swiss Frank (CHF), Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD). These are the most liquid and widely traded currency pairs in the world and make up about 90% of total Forex trading worldwide. The data covers the period 3/20/1987-11/14/2007, including the Asian crisis, the dot-com bubble and the period just before the outbreak of the US subprime crisis. The objective of the paper is to test for the existence of both linear and nonlinear causal relationships among these currency markets. The modified Baek-Brock test for nonlinear non-causality is applied on the currency return time series as well as the linear Granger test. Further to the classical pairwise analysis causality testing is conducted in a multivariate formulation, to correct for the effects of the other variables. A new stepwise multivariate filtering approach is implemented. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear, the nonlinear causal relationships of VAR/VECM filtered residuals are also examined. Finally, the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality is investigated after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using GARCH-BEKK, CCC-GARCH and DCC-GARCH models. Significant nonlinear causal linkages persisted even after multivariate GARCH filtering. This indicates that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither FX market leads or lags the other consistently and currency returns may exhibit statistically significant higher-order moments and asymmetries.

Download or read book Handbook Of Energy Finance Theories Practices And Simulations written by Stephane Goutte and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 827 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling the dynamics of energy markets has become a challenging task. The intensification of their financialization since 2004 had made them more complex but also more integrated with other tradable asset classes. More importantly, their large and frequent fluctuations in terms of both prices and volatility, particularly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis 2008-2009, posit difficulties for modeling and forecasting energy price behavior and are primary sources of concerns for macroeconomic stability and general economic performance.This handbook aims to advance the debate on the theories and practices of quantitative energy finance while shedding light on innovative results and technical methods applied to energy markets. Its primary focus is on the recent development and applications of mathematical and quantitative approaches for a better understanding of the stochastic processes that drive energy market movements. The handbook is designed for not only graduate students and researchers but also practitioners and policymakers.

Download or read book Do Both Demand Following and Supply Leading Theories Hold True in Developing Countries written by Sheung-Chi Chow and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach which uses linear causality to examine whether the supply-leading and demand-following theories hold. As certain countries will be found not to follow the theory by using the traditional approach, this paper first suggests using all the proxies of financial development and economic growth as well as both multivariate and bivariate linear and nonlinear causality tests to analyze the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The multivariate nonlinear test not only takes into consideration both dependent and joint effects among variables, but is also able to detect a multivariate nonlinear deterministic process that cannot be detected by using any linear causality test. We find five more countries in which the supply-leading hypothesis and/or demand-following hypothesis hold true than with the traditional approach. However, there is still one country, Pakistan, for which no linear or nonlinear causality is found between its financial development and economic growth. To overcome this limitation, this paper suggests including cointegration in the analysis. This leads us to conclude that either supply-leading or demand-following hypotheses or both hold for all countries without any exception. There will be some types of relationships between economic growth and financial development in any country such that either they move together or economic growth causes financial development or financial development causes economic growth without any exception. The finding in our paper is may be useful for governments, politicians, and other international institutions in their decision making process for the development of the countries and reducing poverty.