Download or read book China Spillovers Aggregate and Firm Level Evidence written by Alexander Copestake and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-17 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate the impact of distinct types of slowdowns in China on countries and firms globally. First, we combine a structural vector autoregression framework with a broad-based measure of domestic economic activity in China to distinguish supply versus demand components of Chinese growth. We then use local projection models to assess the responses to such shocks of GDP growth (revenue) in other countries (firms). We find that: (i) both supply and demand slowdowns are associated with substantial declines in partner GDP and firm revenue; (ii) negative spillovers are larger in countries and firms with stronger trade links with China; and (iii) spillovers from Chinese supply shocks are stronger than spillovers from demand shocks, both at the aggregate- and firm-level.

Download or read book China Spillovers written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-23 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and—since the recent global financial crisis—a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its economy away from investment and exports and toward consumption, its GDP growth slowed significantly—partly reversing the country’s contribution to global output and trade growth—and is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term. There is little consensus regarding the consequences of a China’s growth slowdown for the rest of the world, with some arguing that a significant slowdown in China may have large implications and possibly lead to a worldwide recession if the “rebalancing” process is not well managed, and others suggesting that even a significant slowdown in China is unlikely to have large global effects, as its role in the world economy is still limited This note contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing how growth shocks in China affect particular regions and country groups and how the impact and key transmission channels of these growth shocks have increased over time. It finds that historically, the average impact of growth shocks in China on global output has been statistically significant but limited, but since the early 2000s, the magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased. Trade linkages remain the main transmission channels, with larger effects for net commodity exporters and countries mostly exporting manufacturing goods. Also, spillover effects tend to be larger during periods of high global uncertainty and have been positively associated with an increase in the share of industry in total value in China, which suggests an important role of the “rebalancing” process.

Download or read book The Role of Market Structure and Timing in Determining VAT Pass Through written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-05 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the role of market characteristics and timing in explaining observed heterogeneity in VAT pass-through. We first extend existing theory to characterize the roles of imperfect competition and product differentiation, then investigate these relationships empirically using a panel of 14 Eurozone countries between 1999 and 2013. We find important roles for product market regulation and product quality, and little impact of advance announcement of reforms. Our findings have important implications for policy-makers considering VAT rate adjustments, by illuminating which of the consumers or the producers would experience the brunt of a reform across different settings.

Download or read book China s Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV written by Mr.Koshy Mathai and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-01 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.

Download or read book The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies Aggregate and Firm Level Trends written by Mai Chi Dao and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using cross-country national accounts and firm-level data, we document a broad-based trend in rising gross saving and net lending of non-financial corporates across major industrialized countries over the last two decades, though most pronounced in countries with persistent current account surpluses. We find that this trend holds consistently across major industries, and is concentrated among large firms, driven by rising profitability, lower financing costs, and reduced tax rates. At the same time, higher gross corporate saving have not supported a commensurate increase in fixed capital investment, but instead led to a build-up of liquid financial assets (cash). The determinants of corporate cash holding and saving are also broad-based across countries, with the growth in assets of large firms, R&D intensity, and lower effective tax rates accounting for most of the increase over the last 15 years.

Download or read book China s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

Download or read book Foreign Direct Investment in China written by Galina Hale and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects that foreign direct investment into China has had on the productivity, exporting activity, and innovation of Chinese domestic firms, as well as on the nation's labor markets. The analysis relies on the most complete data available and state-of-the-art statistical analysis. The book also includes a critical overview of existing theoretical and empirical literature on these issues and is meant to provide guidance to researchers in the area of FDI effects in general, as well as those interested in studying the Chinese economy.

Download or read book Foreign Direct Investment In China Winners And Losers written by Cheryl Xiaoning Long and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012-01-13 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects that foreign direct investment into China has had on the productivity, exporting activity, and innovation of Chinese domestic firms, as well as on the nation's labor markets. The analysis relies on the most complete data available and state-of-the-art statistical analysis. The book also includes a critical overview of existing theoretical and empirical literature on these issues and is meant to provide guidance to researchers in the area of FDI effects in general, as well as those interested in studying the Chinese economy.

Download or read book China s Path to Innovation written by Xiaolan Fu and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-02-05 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic growth and a fascinating transformation of its industry. However, much of this success is the result of industrial imitation, and China's continuing success now relies heavily on its ability to strengthen its indigenous innovation capability. In this book, Xiaolan Fu investigates how China can develop a strategy of compressed development to emerge as a leading innovative nation. The book draws on quantitative and qualitative research that includes cross-country, cross-province and cross-firm analysis. Large multi-level panel datasets, unique survey databases, and in-depth industry case studies are explored. Different theoretical approaches are also used to examine the motivations, obstacles and consequences of China's innovation with a wider discussion around what other countries can learn from China's experience. This book will appeal to scholars and policy-makers working in fields such as innovation policy, technology management, development and international economics, and China studies.

Download or read book Does Import Competition Induce R D Reallocation Evidence from the U S written by Rui Xu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the impact of rising import competition from China on U.S. innovative activities. Using Compustat data, we find that import competition induces R&D expenditures to be reallocated towards more productive and more profitable firms within each industry. Such reallocation effect has the potential to offset the average drop in firm-level R&D identified in the previous literature. Indeed, our quantitative analysis shows no adverse impact of import competition on aggregate R&D expenditures. Taking the analysis beyond manufacturing, we find that import competition has led to reallocation of researchers towards booming service industries, including business and repairs, personal services, and financial services.

Download or read book Global Value Chains and Productivity Micro Evidence from Estonia written by Hang T. Banh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-03 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia.

Download or read book Monitoring Demand and Supply in Asia An Industry Level Approach written by Chris Redl and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-17 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a decomposition of GDP and its deflator into demand and supply driven components for 12 Asian countries, the US and Europe, following the forecast error-based methodology of Shapiro (2022). We extend that methodology by (1) considering a wide range of statistical forecasting models, using the optimal model for each country and (2) provide a measure idiosyncratic demand and supply movements. The latter provides, for example, a distinction between aggregate demand driven inflation and, inflation driven by large shocks in only a small number of sectors. We find that lockdowns in 2020 are explained by a mix of demand and supply shocks in Asia, but that idiosyncratic demand shocks played a significant role in some countries. Supply factors played an important role in the post-COVID recovery, primarily in 2021, with demand factors becoming more important in 2022. The mix of shocks during the sharp increase in inflation in 2021-22 differs by country, with large and advanced economies generally experiencing more supply shocks (China, Australia, Korea), while emerging markets saw significant demand pressures pushing up prices (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand). We illustrate the usefulness of the industry level shocks in two applications. Firstly, we consider whether industry supply shocks have created demand-like movements in aggregate prices and quantities, so-called Keynesian supply shocks. We find evidence for this mechanism in a minority of countries in our Asia sample, as well for Europe and the USA, but that these results are driven by the COVID-19 event. Secondly, we use the granularity of the industry shocks to construct country-level GDP shocks, driven by idiosyncratic movements at the industry level, to study cross country growth spillovers for the three large economic units in our sample: China, Europe and the US.

Download or read book Openness Economic Growth and Regional Disparities written by Yanqing Jiang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-29 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​Substantial disparities across different Chinese regions are one of the most prominent features in China’s development process. This book investigates the mechanisms through which openness affects regional economic growth and interregional disparities in China. Based on the latest data and employing a variety of panel data regression techniques, it provides readers with new findings that shed light on the effects of openness on China’s regional economic growth and the evolution of the country’s interregional disparities.

Download or read book Globalization and Sustainable Growth in China written by Yanqing Jiang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-11-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is on globalization and sustainable growth in China. Thanks to the market-oriented policy reforms initiated in the late 1970s, China has achieved spectacular economic growth over the past several decades, and its economic structure has experienced great transformation. In the meantime, in the general context of globalization, the whole country has also gradually opened up to foreign trade and foreign direct investment, transforming itself from a virtually completely closed economy to a major trading nation and the largest developing-country destination for foreign direct investment in the world. In the first three chapters of this book, we investigate the potential and actual mechanisms and channels through which globalization, especially openness to foreign trade and foreign direct investment, affects industrial development and growth disparities in China. The current wave of globalization has encouraged economic growth in the world economy and affected all sides of international economic involvement. In the next four chapters of the book, we study China and the world economy. We first join the line of research on the trade frictions between China and the United States, including an analytical chapter on trade imbalance and protectionist policy, and an empirical chapter on business cycle synchronization between China and the US. A chapter on growth cycles in the BRICS is also included to explore growth and trade linkages among these five emerging market economies. A new “conventional wisdom” on globalization is that trade and financial openness do not lead to higher economic growth by themselves, in the absence of institutional reforms. Motivated by the Chinese experience, we develop an analytical framework in the last chapter to examine the case of growth targeting in China and draw policy implication for LDCs on how to achieve positive and sustainable economic growth. This book provides the readers with new facts and new findings that shed light on their understanding of globalization and sustainable growth in China.

Download or read book Ideas production and international knowledge spillovers digging deeper into emerging countries written by World Intellectual Property Organization and published by WIPO. This book was released on 2018 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research and development (R&D) activities of emerging countries (EMEs) have increased considerably in recent years. How important are knowledge transfers from developed countries and other emerging countries? This wide-ranging but rigorous macro-level study of 31 EMEs provides some much-needed evidence.

Download or read book China s Growing Role in World Trade written by Robert C. Feenstra and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-10 with total page 603 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.

Download or read book Learning and Innovation in Organizations and Economies written by Bart Nooteboom and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2000-10-26 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops a general 'logic', or heuristic of discovery, to explain the emergence of novelty in individual thought, organizations, industries, and economies. It draws on a variety of literatures, discussing theories of organizational learning, evolutionary and institutional economics, knowledge and language. It brings these together in a unifying framework, and applies that for an analysis of innovation systems and the management of learning. Unification is based on the resource or competence-based view in economics, in combination with a theory of learning by interaction. The central theme of the book is the relation between stability and change. In business literature this theme appears in the relation between exploitation and exploration. In evolutionary economics it appears in the relation between selection and adaptation. The general heuristic shows how exploitation can provide the basis for exploration. The analysis is illustrated with many phenomena and empirical results from the different literatures.