Download or read book Chaos And Forecasting Proceedings Of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting written by Howell A M Tong and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1995-04-26 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is now generally recognised that very simple dynamical systems can produce apparently random behaviour. In the last couple of years, attention has turned to focus on the flip side of this coin: random-looking time series (or random-looking patterns in space) may indeed be the result of very complicated processes or “real noise”, but they may equally well be produced by some very simple mechanism (a low-dimensional attractor). In either case, a long-term prediction will be possible only in probabilistic terms. However, in the very short term, random systems will still be unpredictable but low-dimensional chaotic ones may be predictable (appearances to the contrary). The Royal Society held a two-day discussion meeting on topics covering diverse fields, including biology, economics, geophysics, meteorology, statistics, epidemiology, earthquake science and many others. Each topic was covered by a leading expert in the field. The meeting dealt with different basic approaches to the problem of chaos and forecasting, and covered applications to nonlinear forecasting of both artificially-generated time series and real data from context in the above-mentioned diverse fields. This book marks a rather special and rare occasion on which prominent scientists from different areas converge on the same theme. It forms an informative introduction to the science of chaos, with special reference to real data.

Download or read book Chaos and Forecasting written by Royal Society (Great Britain). Discussion Meeting and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 1995 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Chaos and Forecasting written by B. Grenfell and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Chaos and Forecasting written by B. Grenfell and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Chaos and Forecasting a Discussion written by B. Grenfell and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Essence Of Chaos written by Flavio Lorenzelli and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-09-02 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of chaotic systems has become a major scientific pursuit in recent years, shedding light on the apparently random behaviour observed in fields as diverse as climatology and mechanics. InThe Essence of Chaos Edward Lorenz, one of the founding fathers of Chaos and the originator of its seminal concept of the Butterfly Effect, presents his own landscape of our current understanding of the field. Lorenz presents everyday examples of chaotic behaviour, such as the toss of a coin, the pinball's path, the fall of a leaf, and explains in elementary mathematical strms how their essentially chaotic nature can be understood. His principal example involved the construction of a model of a board sliding down a ski slope. Through this model Lorenz illustrates chaotic phenomena and the related concepts of bifurcation and strange attractors. He also provides the context in which chaos can be related to the similarly emergent fields of nonlinearity, complexity and fractals. As an early pioneer of chaos, Lorenz also provides his own story of the human endeavour in developing this new field. He describes his initial encounters with chaos through his study of climate and introduces many of the personalities who contributed early breakthroughs. His seminal paper, "Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?" is published for the first time.

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Download or read book Chaos Theory in Politics written by Santo Banerjee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-02 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present work investigates global politics and political implications of social science and management with the aid of the latest complexity and chaos theories. Until now, deterministic chaos and nonlinear analysis have not been a focal point in this area of research. This book remedies this deficiency by utilizing these methods in the analysis of the subject matter. The authors provide the reader a detailed analysis on politics and its associated applications with the help of chaos theory, in a single edited volume.

Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics written by Alistair I. Mees and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-01-25 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the state of the art in nonlinear dynamical reconstruction theory. The chapters are based upon a workshop held at the Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University, UK, in late 1998. The book's chapters present theory and methods topics by leading researchers in applied and theoretical nonlinear dynamics, statistics, probability, and systems theory. Features and topics: * disentangling uncertainty and error: the predictability of nonlinear systems * achieving good nonlinear models * delay reconstructions: dynamics vs. statistics * introduction to Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis * latest results in extracting dynamical behavior via Markov Models * data compression, dynamics and stationarity Professionals, researchers, and advanced graduates in nonlinear dynamics, probability, optimization, and systems theory will find the book a useful resource and guide to current developments in the subject.

Download or read book Chaos A Very Short Introduction written by Leonard Smith and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2007-02-22 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chaos exists in systems all around us. Even the simplest system of cause and effect can be subject to chaos, denying us accurate predictions of its behaviour, and sometimes giving rise to astonishing structures of large-scale order. Our growing understanding of Chaos Theory is having fascinating applications in the real world - from technology to global warming, politics, human behaviour, and even gambling on the stock market. Leonard Smith shows that we all have an intuitive understanding of chaotic systems. He uses accessible maths and physics (replacing complex equations with simple examples like pendulums, railway lines, and tossing coins) to explain the theory, and points to numerous examples in philosophy and literature (Edgar Allen Poe, Chang-Tzu, Arthur Conan Doyle) that illuminate the problems. The beauty of fractal patterns and their relation to chaos, as well as the history of chaos, and its uses in the real world and implications for the philosophy of science are all discussed in this Very Short Introduction. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Download or read book The Essence Of Chaos written by Edward N. Lorenz and published by University of Washington Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chaos surrounds us. Seemingly random events -- the flapping of a flag, a storm-driven wave striking the shore, a pinball's path -- often appear to have no order, no rational pattern. Explicating the theory of chaos and the consequences of its principal findings -- that actual, precise rules may govern such apparently random behavior -- has been a major part of the work of Edward N. Lorenz. In The Essence of Chaos, Lorenz presents to the general reader the features of this "new science," with its far-reaching implications for much of modern life, from weather prediction to philosophy, and he describes its considerable impact on emerging scientific fields. Unlike the phenomena dealt with in relativity theory and quantum mechanics, systems that are now described as "chaotic" can be observed without telescopes or microscopes. They range from the simplest happenings, such as the falling of a leaf, to the most complex processes, like the fluctuations of climate. Each process that qualifies, however, has certain quantifiable characteristics: how it unfolds depends very sensitively upon its present state, so that, even though it is not random, it seems to be. Lorenz uses examples from everyday life, and simple calculations, to show how the essential nature of chaotic systems can be understood. In order to expedite this task, he has constructed a mathematical model of a board sliding down a ski slope as his primary illustrative example. With this model as his base, he explains various chaotic phenomena, including some associated concepts such as strange attractors and bifurcations. As a meteorologist, Lorenz initially became interested in the field of chaos because of its implications for weather forecasting. In a chapter ranging through the history of weather prediction and meteorology to a brief picture of our current understanding of climate, he introduces many of the researchers who conceived the experiments and theories, and he describes his own initial encounter with chaos. A further discussion invites readers to make their own chaos. Still others debate the nature of randomness and its relationship to chaotic systems, and describe three related fields of scientific thought: nonlinearity, complexity, and fractality. Appendixes present the first publication of Lorenz's seminal paper "Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wing in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?"; the mathematical equations from which the copious illustrations were derived; and a glossary.

Download or read book Everyday Chaos written by David Weinberger and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2019-04-23 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make. More. Future. Artificial intelligence, big data, modern science, and the internet are all revealing a fundamental truth: The world is vastly more complex and unpredictable than we've allowed ourselves to see. Now that technology is enabling us to take advantage of all the chaos it's revealing, our understanding of how things happen is changing--and with it our deepest strategies for predicting, preparing for, and managing our world. This affects everything, from how we approach our everyday lives to how we make moral decisions and how we run our businesses. Take machine learning, which makes better predictions about weather, medical diagnoses, and product performance than we do--but often does so at the expense of our understanding of how it arrived at those predictions. While this can be dangerous, accepting it is also liberating, for it enables us to harness the complexity of an immense amount of data around us. We are also turning to strategies that avoid anticipating the future altogether, such as A/B testing, Minimum Viable Products, open platforms, and user-modifiable video games. We even take for granted that a simple hashtag can organize unplanned, leaderless movements such as #MeToo. Through stories from history, business, and technology, philosopher and technologist David Weinberger finds the unifying truths lying below the surface of the tools we take for granted--and a future in which our best strategy often requires holding back from anticipating and instead creating as many possibilities as we can. The book’s imperative for business and beyond is simple: Make. More. Future. The result is a world no longer focused on limitations but optimized for possibilities.

Download or read book Chaos in Real Data written by J.N. Perry and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chaos in Real Data studies the range of data analytic techniques available to study nonlinear population dynamics for ecological time series. Several case studies are studied using typically short and noisy population data from field and laboratory. A range of modern approaches, such as response surface methodology and mechanistic mathematical modelling, are applied to several case studies. Experts honestly appraise how well these methods have performed on their data. The accessible style of the book ensures its readability for non-quantitative biologists. The data remain available, as benchmarks for future study, on the worldwide web.

Download or read book Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series written by Colleen D. Cutler and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lars Ahlfors's Lectures on Quasiconformal Mappings, based on a course he gave at Harvard University in the spring term of 1964, was first published in 1966 and was soon recognized as the classic it was shortly destined to become. These lectures develop the theory of quasiconformal mappings from scratch, give a self-contained treatment of the Beltrami equation, and cover the basic properties of Teichmuller spaces, including the Bers embedding and the Teichmuller curve. It isremarkable how Ahlfors goes straight to the heart of the matter, presenting major results with a minimum set of prerequisites. Many graduate students and other mathematicians have learned the foundations of the theories of quasiconformal mappings and Teichmuller spaces from these lecture notes. This editionincludes three new chapters. The first, written by Earle and Kra, describes further developments in the theory of Teichmuller spaces and provides many references to the vast literature on Teichmuller spaces and quasiconformal mappings. The second, by Shishikura, describes how quasiconformal mappings have revitalized the subject of complex dynamics. The third, by Hubbard, illustrates the role of these mappings in Thurston's theory of hyperbolic structures on 3-manifolds. Together, these threenew chapters exhibit the continuing vitality and importance of the theory of quasiconformal mappings. This book is a collection of research and expository papers reflecting the interfacing of two fields: nonlinear dynamics (in the physiological and biological sciences) and statistics. It presents theproceedings of a four-day workshop entitled ''Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series: Building a Bridge Between the Natural and Statistical Sciences'' held at the Centre de Recherches Mathematiques (CRM) in Montreal in July 1995. The goal of the workshop was to provide an exchange forum and to create a link between two diverse groups with a common interest in the analysis of nonlinear time series data. The editors and peer reviewers of this work have attempted to minimize the problems ofmaintaining communication between the different scientific fields. The result is a collection of interrelated papers that highlight current areas of research in statistics that might have particular applicability to nonlinear dynamics and new methodology and open data analysis problems in nonlinear dynamicsthat might find their way into the toolkits and research interests of statisticians. Features: A survey of state-of-the-art developments in nonlinear dynamics time series analysis with open statistical problems and areas for further research. Contributions by statisticians to understanding and improving modern techniques commonly associated with nonlinear time series analysis, such as surrogate data methods and estimation of local Lyapunov exponents. Starting point for both scientists andstatisticians who want to explore the field. Expositions that are readable to scientists outside the featured fields of specialization. Information for our distributors: Titles in this series are copublished with the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences (Toronto, Ontario,Canada).

Download or read book Coping with Chaos written by Edward Ott and published by Wiley-VCH. This book was released on 1994-09-27 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first unified presentation of new developments in the analysis and exploitation of chaotic systems... Mathematicians have been aware of chaotic dynamics since Poincar?'s work at the turn of the century. But, as the turn of yet another century approaches, physical scientists and engineers have begun to use their understanding of chaos theory to analyze chaotic experimental time series data. Some researchers have even used the presence of chaos to achieve practical goals. To do this, they have had to work with dynamical processes for which the equations were either not known or were too complex to be useful. In other words, they have been coping with chaos. Coping with Chaos is the first book to bring together recent advances in the interpretive and practical applications of chaos, which hold great promise for broad applicability throughout the physical sciences and engineering. Together with an introduction to chaos theory, this book provides detailed reports on methods of analyzing experimental time series data from chaotic systems and studies in which the unique attributes of chaos are put to practical use. Topics discussed in this book include: * Theory of chaotic dynamics * Embedding techniques for the analysis of experimental data * Calculation of dimension and Lyapunov exponents * Determination of periodic orbits and symbolic dynamics * Prediction of chaotic time series * Noise filtering of chaotic data * Control of chaotic systems * The use of chaotic signals for communication * And more

Download or read book Chaos written by A.A. Tsonis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on chaos theory two very important points are clear: (I) random looking aperiodic behavior may be the product of determinism, and (2) nonlinear problems should be treated as nonlinear problems and not as simplified linear problems. The theoretical aspects ofchaos have been presented in great detail in several excellent books published in the last five years or so. However, while the problems associated with applications of the theory-such as dimension and Lyapunov exponentsestimation, chaosand nonlinear pre diction, and noise reduction-have been discussed in workshops and ar ticles, they have not been presented in book form. This book has been prepared to fill this gap between theory and ap plicationsand to assist studentsand scientists wishingto apply ideas from the theory ofnonlinear dynamical systems to problems from their areas of interest. The book is intended to be used as a text for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate-level course, as well as a reference source for researchers. My philosophy behind writing this book was to keep it simple and informative without compromising accuracy. I have made an effort to presentthe conceptsby usingsimplesystemsand step-by-stepderivations. Anyone with an understanding ofbasic differential equations and matrix theory should follow the text without difficulty. The book was designed to be self-contained. When applicable, examples accompany the theory. The reader will notice, however, that in the later chapters specific examples become less frequent. This is purposely done in the hope that individuals will draw on their own ideas and research projects for examples.

Download or read book Exploration of a Nonlinear World written by Kung-sik Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extensions of Howell Tong's threshold approach to other fields of statistics abound. This volume is dedicated to his 65th birthday and consists of in-depth contributions from leading experts in a variety of fields of statistics, ecology, economics and finance as well as some of Tong's reprints.