Download or read book A Certain Uncertainty written by Mark P. Silverman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based around a series of real-life scenarios, this engaging introduction to statistical reasoning will teach you how to apply powerful statistical, qualitative and probabilistic tools in a technical context. From analysis of electricity bills, baseball statistics, and stock market fluctuations, through to profound questions about physics of fermions and bosons, decaying nuclei, and climate change, each chapter introduces relevant physical, statistical and mathematical principles step-by-step in an engaging narrative style, helping to develop practical proficiency in the use of probability and statistical reasoning. With numerous illustrations making it easy to focus on the most important information, this insightful book is perfect for students and researchers of any discipline interested in the interwoven tapestry of probability, statistics, and physics.
Download or read book A Certain Uncertainty written by Mark P. Silverman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 637 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This engaging introduction to statistical reasoning will teach you how to apply powerful statistical tools in a technical context.
Download or read book The Certainty of Uncertainty written by Mark A. Schaefer and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2018-08-23 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world is full of people who are very certain--in politics, in religion, in all manner of things. In addition, political, religious, and social organizations are marketing certainty as a cure all to all life's problems. But is such certainty possible? Or even good? The Certainty of Uncertainty explores the question of certainty by looking at the reasons human beings crave certainty and the religious responses we frequently fashion to help meet that need. The book takes an in-depth view of religion, language, our senses, our science, and our world to explore the inescapable uncertainties they reveal. We find that the certainty we crave does not exist. As we reflect on the unavoidable uncertainties in our world, we come to understand that letting go of certainty is not only necessary, it's beneficial. For, in embracing doubt and uncertainty, we find a more meaningful and courageous religious faith, a deeper encounter with mystery, and a way to build strong relationships across religious and philosophical lines. In The Certainty of Uncertainty, we see that embracing our belief systems with humility and uncertainty can be transformative for ourselves and for our world.
Download or read book Certain Peace in Uncertain Times written by Shirley Dobson and published by Multnomah. This book was released on 2002 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Respond to change in a chaotic world with inner peace and resolve. National Day of Prayer Task Force chairman Shirley Dobson shows you how to nurture an efffective and lasting lifestyle of prayer.
Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
Download or read book Great by Choice written by Jim Collins and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2011-10-11 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ten years after the worldwide bestseller Good to Great, Jim Collins returns withanother groundbreaking work, this time to ask: why do some companies thrive inuncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? Based on nine years of research,buttressed by rigorous analysis and infused with engaging stories, Collins andhis colleague Morten Hansen enumerate the principles for building a truly greatenterprise in unpredictable, tumultuous and fast-moving times. This book isclassic Collins: contrarian, data-driven and uplifting.
Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
Download or read book Certain Uncertainty written by Des Dearlove and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-05-02 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improve your ability to adapt to an increasingly unpredictable world In Certain Uncertainty, renowned management theorist Des Dearlove delivers an exciting and illuminating discussion of how to build resilience and agility into our lives and businesses. As rapid and foundational change becomes ever more constant, a state of constant disruption increasingly becomes our new normal. This book collects advice and fresh thinking from accomplished business leaders to help managers and executives navigate contemporary markets. In the book, you’ll find: Ways to structure your business to better respond to constant fluidity and change Discussions of why the concepts of economic and social certainty were always largely illusory Strategies for embracing forward-looking humility that acknowledges uncertainty about what lies around the next corner An engaging and insightful exploration of a dynamic and ambiguous world that’s increasingly full of surprises, Certain Uncertainty will earn a place on the bookshelves of business leaders, entrepreneurs, and visionaries seeking ways to adapt to a world in which sameness and certainty are relics of the past.
Download or read book The Cunning of Uncertainty written by Helga Nowotny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-19 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author’s experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world’s leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today.
Download or read book Relax It s Only Uncertainty written by Philip Hodgson and published by Financial Times/Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2001 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way when the way is changing.
Download or read book Moral Uncertainty written by William MacAskill and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
Download or read book Individual Choice Under Certainty and Uncertainty written by Kenneth Joseph Arrow and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1984 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The third volume of Arrow's Collected Papers concerns the basic concept of rationality as it applies to an economic decision maker. In particular, it addresses the problem of choice faced by consumers in a multicommodity world and presents specific models of choice useful in economic analysis. It also discusses choice models under uncertainty.
Download or read book The Uncertain Mind written by Richard M. Sorrentino and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2013-05-13 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses individual differences in how people react to uncertainty. The authors show that while some people are relatively comfortable dealing with uncertainty and strive to resolve it (uncertainty-oriented), others are more likely to avoid uncertainty, preferring the familiar or the known (certainty-oriented). They go on to examine the implications of an uncertainty orientation for understanding processes of self-knowledge, social cognition and attitude change, achievement, motivation and performance, interpersonal and group processes, and issues relating to physical and psychological health concerns. Research is discussed which links this uncertainty orientation to each of these issues, raising important practical and theoretical questions for each. The book also considers possible implications for people of both orientations of living in times that may be characterized as being uncertain.
Download or read book Beautiful Uncertainty written by Mandy Hale and published by Thomas Nelson. This book was released on 2016-02-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To seek, pursue, and fall in love with Jesus with radical abandon. Single Woman Mandy Hale shares with readers what can happen in their lives by praying this powerful prayer. She has shown women how important it is to be secure in singleness by being smart, strong, and independent. In this all new book, she will prompt readers to never settle and not miss out on the beauty that can be found in times of “waiting.” The Single Woman Says: “Whether you’re idling in stubborn sinfulness or walking in seeming never-ending singleness or living with any sort of waiting: Waiting for love, waiting for babies, waiting for marriage, waiting for a cure, or a miracle, or a sign, or for GOD . . . I hope my journey will make the wait a little easier and the uncertainty a little bit more beautiful.” Starting with relationships, but going beyond into areas like career, friendships, and life, Mandy will guide readers through what you can achieve if you look beyond your current circumstances, never settle for less than what God has for you, and find beauty in the waiting.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Kostas Kampourakis and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-07 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scientific knowledge is the most solid and robust kind of knowledge that humans have because of the self-correcting character inherent in its own processes. Nevertheless, anti-evolutionists, climate denialists, and anti-vaxxers, among others, question some of the best-established scientific findings, making claims that are unsupported by empirical evidence. A common aspect of these claims is the reference to the uncertainties in these areas of research, which leads to the conclusion that science is uncertain about evolution, climate change, and vaccination, among others. The truth of the matter is that while the broad picture is clear, there exist--and will always exist--uncertainties about the details of the respective phenomena. In this book Kampourakis and McCain show that uncertainty is an inherent feature of science that does not devalue it. In contrast, uncertainty actually makes science advance because it motivates further research. The first book of its kind, Uncertainty draws on philosophy of science to explain what uncertainty in science is and how it makes science advance. It contrasts evolution, climate change, and vaccination, where the uncertainties are exaggerated, to genetic testing and forensic science where the uncertainties are usually overlooked. Kampourakis and McCain discuss the scientific, psychological, and philosophical aspects of uncertainty in order to explain what it is really about, what kind of problems it actually poses, and why it ultimately makes science advance. Contrary to the public representations of scientific findings and conclusions that produce an intuitive but distorted view of science as certain, we need to understand and learn to live with uncertainty in science.
Download or read book Decision Making under Uncertainty written by Kerstin Preuschoff and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2015-06-16 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.
