Download or read book Carry Trades and Currency Crashes written by Markus Konrad Brunnermeier and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents that carry traders are subject to crash risk: i.e. exchange rate movements between high-interest-rate and low-interest-rate currencies are negatively skewed. We argue that this negative skewness is due to sudden unwinding of carry trades, which tend to occur in periods in which risk appetite and funding liquidity decrease. Funding liquidity measures predict exchange rate movements, and controlling for liquidity helps explain the uncovered interest-rate puzzle. Carry-trade losses reduce future crash risk, but increase the price of crash risk. We also document excess co-movement among currencies with similar interest rate. Our findings are consistent with a model in which carry traders are subject to funding liquidity constraints.

Download or read book Carry Trades and Currency Crashes written by Markus K. Brunnermeier and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents that carry traders are subject to crash risk: i.e. exchange rate movements between high-interest-rate and low-interest-rate currencies are negatively skewed. We argue that this negative skewness is due to sudden unwinding of carry trades, which tend to occur in periods in which risk appetite and funding liquidity decrease. Funding liquidity measures predict exchange rate movements, and controlling for liquidity helps explain the uncovered interest-rate puzzle. Carry-trade losses reduce future crash risk, but increase the price of crash risk. We also document excess co-movement among currencies with similar interest rate. Our findings are consistent with a model in which carry traders are subject to funding liquidity constraints.

Download or read book Carry Trades and Currency Crashes written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Rise of Carry The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis written by Tim Lee and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. A groundbreaking book sure to leave its mark in the canon of investing literature, The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle. They provide thorough analyses of critical but often overlooked topics and issues, including: •The active role stock prices play in causing recessions—as opposed to the common belief that recessions cause price crashes •The real driving force behind financial asset prices •The ways that carry, volatility selling, leverage, liquidity, and profitability affect the business cycle •How positive returns to carry over time are related to market volatility—and how central bank policies have supercharged these returns Simply put, carry trading is now the primary determinant of the global business cycle—a pattern of long, steady but unspectacular expansions punctuated by catastrophic crises. The Rise of Carry provides foundational knowledge and expert insights you need to protect yourself from what have come to be common market upheavals—as well as the next major crisis.

Download or read book Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management written by Kathrin Glau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-01-09 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling, multiple-curve interest rate-models, and model risk are addressed. Finally, regulatory developments and possible limits of mathematical modeling are discussed.

Download or read book Currency Carry Trades and Funding Risk written by Sara Ferreira Filipe and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we measure currency carry trade funding risk using stock market volatility and crash risk in Japan, the main funding currency country. We show that the measures of funding risk in Japan can explain 42% of the monthly currency carry trade returns during our sample period, 2000-2011. In addition, they explain 64% of the monthly foreign exchange volatility in our sample of ten main currencies, 28% of the speculators' net currency futures positions in Australian dollar versus Japanese yen, skewness in currency returns and currency crashes. We present a theoretical model that is consistent with these findings.

Download or read book Handbook of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-05-29 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Download or read book FX Options and Structured Products written by Uwe Wystup and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-06-30 with total page 649 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advanced Guidance to Excelling in the FX Market Once you have a textbook understanding of money market and foreign exchange products, turn to FX Options and Structured Products, Second Edition, for the beyond-vanilla options strategies and traded deals proven superior in today’s post-credit crisis trading environment. With the thoroughness and balance of theory and practice only Uwe Wystup can deliver, this fully revised edition offers authoritative solutions for the real world in an easy-to-access format. See how specific products actually work through detailed case studies featuring clear examples of FX options, common structures and custom solutions. This complete resource is both a wellspring of ideas and a hands-on guide to structuring and executing your own strategies. Distinguish yourself with a valued skillset by: Working through practical and thought-provoking challenges in more than six dozen exercises, all with complete solutions in a companion volume Gaining a working knowledge of the latest, most popular products, including accumulators, kikos, target forwards and more Getting close to the everyday realities of the FX derivatives market through new, illuminating case studies for corporates, municipalities and private banking FX Options and Structured Products, Second Edition is your go-to road map to the exotic options in FX derivatives.

Download or read book Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.

Download or read book Do Currency Fundamentals Matter for Currency Speculators written by Masahiro Nozaki and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2010-02-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The answer seems affirmative. We compare currency carry trades with an investment strategy based on currency fundamentals: taking a long (short) position in undervalued (overvalued) currencies. Carry trades have high risk-adjusted returns, but are subject to "crash risk." In contrast, the fundamental strategy has lower risk-adjusted returns, but is less prone to crash risk, because the realization of crash risk coincides with corrections towards fundamentals. In particular, the fundamental strategy outperformed carry trades during the recent global financial crisis. Building on these results, we present early warning indicators for potential turbulence in the currency market.

Download or read book Rule Based Investing written by Chiente Hsu and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 2014 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Use rule-based investment strategies to maintain trading and investment discipline, and protect yourself from fear, greed, pride, and other costly emotions! Since the mid-1990s, assets under management in rule-based or non-discretionary hedge funds have outgrown those in discretionary or qualitative funds. Recent research shows that rule-based funds have outperformed discretionary funds on a risk-adjusted basis over the past 30 years, and have especially outperformed during recent financial crises. This is the first comprehensive guide to designing and applying these sophisticated strategies. Combining academic rigor and practical applications, it explains what rule-based investment strategies are, how to construct them, and how to distinguish bad ones from good ones. Unlike any other guide, it systematically covers every facet of the topic, including Forex, rates, emerging markets, equity, volatility, and other key topics. Credit Suisse head of global strategy and modeling, Chiente Hsu, covers carry, momentum, seasonality, and value-based strategies; as well as the construction of portfolios of rule-based strategies that support diversification. Replete with realistic examples, this book will be a valuable resource for everyone concerned with effective investing, from traders to specialists in applied corporate finance.

Download or read book The Financing of Catastrophe Risk written by Kenneth A. Froot and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is it possible that the insurance and reinsurance industries cannot handle a major catastrophe? Ten years ago, the notion that the overall cost of a single catastrophic event might exceed $10 billion was unthinkable. With ever increasing property-casualty risks and unabated growth in hazard-prone areas, insurers and reinsurers now envision the possibility of disaster losses of $50 to $100 billion in the United States. Against this backdrop, the capitalization of the insurance and reinsurance industries has become a crucial concern. While it remains unlikely that a single event might entirely bankrupt these industries, a big catastrophe could place firms under severe stress, jeopardizing both policy holders and investors and causing profound ripple effects throughout the U.S. economy. The Financing of Catastrophe Risk assembles an impressive roster of experts from academia and industry to explore the disturbing yet realistic assumption that a large catastrophic event is inevitable. The essays offer tangible means of both reassessing and raising the level of preparedness throughout the insurance and reinsurance industries.

Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Download or read book Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes written by Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on whether crash probabilities are low or high. When we estimate the model on part of the data and then use the parameter estimates to generate predictions for the remainder of the sample, we find that substantial profits may be made. Furthermore, the model correctly forecasts major crashes even on an out-of-sample basis.

Download or read book Crashing the Dollar written by Craig R. Smith and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In this eye-opening book, Craig and Lowell show what a crash of the dollar and other currencies would be like. They tell how America can avoid this economic disaster. They explain how you and your family, by preparing now, can survive, thrive, and even prosper during a collapse of the dollar"--Foreword.

Download or read book Interpreting Currency Movements During the Crisis written by Mr.Thomas Dowling and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an adaptation of the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition, this paper analyzes the drivers behind the large, symmetric exchange rate swings observed during the financial crisis of 2008-2010. Employing a Nelson-Siegel model, we estimate yield curves and decompose the exchange rate movements into changes we attribute to monetary policy and a residual. We find that the depreciation phase of the currencies in our sample was largely dominated by safe-haven effects rather than carry trade activity or other return considerations. For some countries, however, the appreciation that began at the end of 2008 seems largely to reflect downward movement in the cumulative revisions to nominal forward differentials, suggesting carry trade.

Download or read book Currencies After the Crash The Uncertain Future of the Global Paper Based Currency System written by Sara Eisen and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2012-10-26 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the brightest minds in the field—a revealing look at how countries use their currencies to achieve prosperity . . . and the coming repercussions Bloomberg Television's Sara Eisen sheds light on the complex global financial system through this illuminating collection of essays. She hand selected the crème de la crème of authors from the world's most prestigious academic institutions and esteemed professional organizations to share—for the first time in print—their observations and deductions on the topics that matter most to you and your future wealth, including: • THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CURRENCIES AND FINANCIAL CRISES • THE FLAWS WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES • HOW EMERGING MARKETS FIT INTO THE CURRENT AND FUTURE EXCHANGE RATE FRAMEWORK • THE IMPACT EXCHANGE RATES HAVE ON FREE TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH • WHAT DEFINES A "SAFE HAVEN" CURRENCY AND ITS ROLE • POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS "Today's fiat currency system is based upon trust among market participants, politicians, and central bankers--and that trust is assembled around the reserve currency that enjoys an exorbitant privilege. The reserve status is in doubt in a post financial crisis era but alternatives are lacking. . . . This book is a great guide on how the global currency system is morphing into apotential new standard, but not without the necessary volatility."—Ben Emons, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, PIMCO