Download or read book Capital Inflows Financial Cycles and Business Cycles in Asian Countries written by Qing Liu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This thesis presents three empirical papers (Chapters 2 to 4) on the contributors to the growth of Southeast and South Asian countries, their financial and business fluctuations, and the relationship between these fluctuations. The empirical analysis is carried out for China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.Chapter 2 provides a quantitative assessment of the effects of various types of capital inflows (including foreign investment, foreign aid, long-term debt and openness to trade) and human capital (in the forms of education enrollment and education expenditures) on the growth process of the selected Asian countries over the period 1970 - 2010. Our empirical analysis is based on dynamic panel data, and can be categorized into three aspects: for stationary variables, we employ VAR methodology, Granger-causality, causality strength measure, impulse response functions and variance decomposition; to analyze the non-stationary variables, we employ cointegration analysis and VECM model; and to investigate the common effects shared by all these countries, we use panel data analysis. Our results show that capital inflows affect the growth process in our sample of countries both in the short and the long term. In the majority of countries, per capita real GDP and its growth rate respond positively to four of the components in capital inflows: foreign investment, openness to trade, public investment and human capital; on the other hand, capital inflows of aid and long-term debt seem has adverse or insignificant effects on economic growth in some cases. Further, our finding is that there exists significant two-way Granger-causality between capital inflows and economic growth across multiple time horizons, and that causality is strongest between foreign capital inflows and economic growth. The third chapter empirically investigates the characteristics of financial cycles using turning points and frequency-based filters analyses. Our sample of countries in this chapter covers 11 Southeast and South Asian countries over the period 1960 to 2013. We examine the frequency, duration and amplitude of the cycles in credit, house prices and equity prices, and their synchronizations within a country as well as across countries. We find, first, that financial cycles in the Asian countries are longer and severer than the business cycle in output, but not as long as those in developed countries; second, the credit cycle displays a quite skewed shape with exceptionally longer and stronger expansions than contractions, and that, in the cycles on credit, house prices and equity prices, equity prices show the greatest volatility, the shortest cycle duration and the greatest amplitude; third, the peaks of financial cycles are closely followed by financial crises. Finally, the cycles in financial variables are highly synchronized within each country and across countries. The fourth chapter investigates the features of business cycles and their relationship with those of financial cycles in our set of 11 Asian countries. The data used is for the period 1980Q1 - 2013Q4. Our results show, first, that financial cycles tend to be deeper and sharper than business cycles. Second, cycles in output tend to display high-level synchronization with cycles in credit, whereas they do not feature much commonality with cycles in employment and with some of our other financial variables. Third, the dynamic correlations between business cycles and financial cycles in most countries are significantly positive at low frequencies while not being significant at higher frequencies. Finally, though Granger-causality tests generate mixed results between the financial and business variables, there exists strong two-way causality between credit and real GDP, with credit having very high predictive power for the growth of real GDP, and real GDP helping to predict the growth of credit. " --

Download or read book International Capital Flows and Business Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region written by Soyoung Kim and published by 대외경제정책연구원. This book was released on 2002 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Capital Mobility in Asia written by Juthathip Jongwanich and published by Flipside Digital Content Company Inc.. This book was released on 2018-02-14 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ever since the East Asian financial crisis it has been recognized that emerging market economies are vulnerable to both excessive inflows of capital and sudden outflows. This book presents new research on the determinants and effects of capital flows as well as the effectiveness of capital control policies in dealing with volatile capital flows in emerging Asian countries. It examine three issues related to capital movements in Asia: (1) the key factors determining such mobility; (2) the impact of capital movements in a home country, especially on real exchange rates; and (3) the effectiveness of capital account policies.

Download or read book The Evolving Role of Asia In Global Finance written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-03-10 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The process of Asia's rise to a position of eminence in global finance has accelerated in the wake of the international financial crisis. This volume intends to explore and understand the dynamics created by this process of transition.

Download or read book Curbing The Boom Bust Cycle written by John Williamson and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2005-07-30 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International investors poured vast sums of money into East Asian and Latin American countries during the mid-1990s, when the emerging market boom was at its peak. Then Thailand stumbled and panic seized the markets, and boom gave way to bust. Investors suffered large financial losses, while Asian countries suddenly experienced large capital outflows and the macroeconomic pressures these wrought plunged countries that had been growing rapidly ("miraculously") into crisis. Much the same had happened in Latin America when the debt crisis broke in 1982. This book investigates what can be done to make the international capital market a constructive force in promoting development in emerging markets. John Williamson concludes that the problem of cyclicality that has undermined the value of international borrowing cannot be tackled just, or even mainly, from the supply side, but will require actions on the part of both creditors and debtors.

Download or read book International Capital Flows Boom Bust Cycles and Business Cycle Synchronization in the Asia Pacific Region written by Soyoung Kim and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article documents evidence of business cycle synchronization in selected Asia Pacific countries since the 1990s. We explain business cycle synchronization by the channel of international capital flows and boom-bust cycles. Using the vector auto-regression method, we find that most Asian countries experience boom-bust cycles following capital inflows, where the boom in output is mostly driven by consumption and investment. Empirical evidence also shows that capital flow shocks are positively correlated in the region, which supports the conclusion that capital market liberalization has contributed to business cycle synchronization.

Download or read book Global Economic Uncertainties and Southeast Asian Economies written by Suthiphand Chirathivat and published by Flipside Digital Content Company Inc.. This book was released on 2016-05-13 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aftermath of the global economic breakdown in 2008-9 underscores the risks facing Southeast Asia's growth prospects. Although the region has demonstrated exceptional resilience to external shocks emanating from economic powerhouses around the globe, Southeast Asia is in dire need of an optimal policy mix of macroeconomic and trade policy measures that differ by country, underpin domestic demand, and revive domestic economies. This book offers in-depth, region-specific economic policy discourse that illuminates how a policy push is at work in the region, and sheds light on room for strengthening regional cooperation.This book aims to: (1) discuss the developments of macroeconomic and trade-policy mix against the backdrop of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and economic prospects for major countries in Southeast Asia (i.e., Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam); (2) assess the effectiveness of policy responses to the global economic unrest; (3) identify opportunities and challenges facing Southeast Asia in the midst of the global economic slump when developing Southeast Asia leverages on an ever-expanding role in the global business environment; (4) rethink the East Asian model of growth where enormous gains were driven principally by export demands from advanced economies; and (5) pioneer the key areas of regional cooperation and macroeconomic and trade policy reforms that may potentially strengthen regional economies.

Download or read book How Important is the Global Financial Cycle Evidence from Capital Flows written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-01 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use two methods to represent it: directly observable variables in center economies often linked to it, such as the VIX; and indirect manifestations, proxied by common dynamic factors extracted from actual capital flows. Our evidence seems mostly inconsistent with a significant and conspicuous GFCy; both methods combined rarely explain more than a quarter of the variation in capital flows. Succinctly, most variation in capital flows does not seem to be the result of common shocks nor stem from observables in a central country like the United States.

Download or read book Research in Asian Economic Studies written by and published by . This book was released on 1989* with total page 842 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages written by Selim Elekdag and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to uncover their key determinants, which include trade and financial linkages, as well as policies. In line with Asia’s growing role in the global economy—including through deeper financial integration—regional financial markets have become more sensitive to systemic economies. Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies exhibit cyclical fluctuations, and reached historically high levels during the latest global financial crisis of 2008–09. While macroeconomic policy frameworks have helped Asian economies cope well with market turbulence, they cannot completely insulate Asian financial markets against major global financial shocks.

Download or read book Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.

Download or read book Saving Investment and International Capital Mobility in East Asia written by Soyoung Kim and published by 대외경제정책연구원. This book was released on 2004 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets written by Erlend Nier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-27 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.

Download or read book The East Asian Crisis written by Ms.Kalpana Kochhar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews macroeconomic developments during the first year of the crisis in east Asia and draws some preliminary policy lessons. The crisis is rooted in the interaction of large capital inflows and weak private and public sector governance. At the same time, macroeconomic adjustment in these countries has resulted in some surprising outcomes, including severe economic contractions, low inflation, and rapid external adjustment. The lessons for crisis resolution include the importance of tight monetary policy early on for exchange rate stabilization, flexible fiscal policy, and comprehensive structural reform. Crises are avoided by prudent macroeconomic policies, diligent bank supervision, transparent data dissemination, strong governance, and forward-looking policymaking, even in good times.

Download or read book The Dynamics of Asian Financial Integration written by Michael Devereux and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-05-03 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ongoing global financial crisis has manifested a remarkable degree of global financial integration—and its implications—for emerging Asian financial markets. The current crisis will not and should not deter the progress that the region has made toward financial openness and integration. However, events like this clearly demonstrate that financial liberalization and integration is not without risks. Hence, emerging Asian economies' growing financial ties have motivated us to look closer at the repercussions of increased financial integration and evaluate the benefits of risk sharing and better access to international capital markets against the costs of cross-border financial contagion. The crisis also presents a timely opportunity for the region’s policy makers to rethink their strategies for financial deregulation and liberalization and to reconsider a next step to integrate emerging East Asia’s financial markets further. However, doing so requires deeper understanding of financial market integration. While much has been said in both academic and policy circles about financial globalization and regional financial integration as separate areas of study, existing research has been relatively silent on the dynamics between these two distinctive forces. The book addresses this gap in financial literature and assesses financial integration in emerging East Asia at both regional and global levels. The publication studies the factors driving the progress of regional financial integration in relation to financial globalization and identifies the relevant policy challenges facing emerging market economies in the region. Chapters look into three broad aspects of regional and global financial market integration: (i) measurement of regional and global financial integration, (ii) understanding dynamics of regional financial integration versus global financial integration, and (iii) welfare implications from regional financial market integration amid financial globalization. Against this context, academics, policy makers, and other readers will appreciate the rigorous research contribution provided by the book.

Download or read book The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asian Economic Growth written by Anusorn Tamajai and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Capital Flows to South Asian and ASEAN Countries written by Ishrat Husain and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign direct investment has been more influential than other types of resource flows in shaping economic growth in ASEAN countries. South Asian policymakers can also facilitate the infusion of foreign direct investment flows if they pursue policies and nondistortionary incentive systems similar to those of ASEAN countries.