Download or read book Business Cycles Durations and Poswar Stabilization of the U S Economy written by Mark W. Watson and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U S Economy written by Mark W. Watson and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The average length of business cycle contractions in the United States fell from 20.5 months in the prewar period to 10.7 months in the postwar period. Similarly, the average length of business cycle expansions rose from 25.3 months in the prewar period to 49.9 months in the postwar period. This paper investigates three explanations for this apparent duration stabilization. The first explanation is that shocks to the economy have been smaller in the postwar period. This implies that duration stabilization should be present in both aggregate and sectoral output data. The second explanation is that the composition of output has shifted from sectors that are very cyclical, like manufacturing, to sectors that are less cyclical, like services. This would lead to increased stability in aggregate output even in the absence of increased stability in the individual sectors. The third explanation is that the apparent stabilization is largely spurious, and is caused by differences in the way that prewar and postwar business cycle reference dates were chosen by the NBER. The evidence presented in this paper favors this third explanation.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Download or read book American Business Cycles 1945 50 written by Conrad Blyth and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the end of the Second World War businessmen and economists throughout the world feared that the American postwar inflationary boom would end in a serious slump. The slump took a long time to come, and when it did appear in 1949 it was both mild and short lived. In its mildness and brevity it foreshadowed the American business recessions since that time and, indeed, may foreshadow the end of the business cycle as it has been known in the past. This book presents the first full-scale study of the 1948–49 recession in the United States, making it the focal point of a detailed, analytical account of American business fluctuations from the end of the Second World War until the beginning of the Korean War. The main part of the book is prefaced by a review of fluctuations from 1945 to 1967 and of the business cycle theory, which places the postwar events in perspective. Of special importance are the studies of the ending, in early 1948, of the period of re-stocking and re-equipment; of the impact of the changed farm situation in this deflationary atmosphere, and use of modern consumption theory to explain the changes in household spending after the war and during the recession. Dr. Blyth has drawn extensively upon the results of modern economic research, and has woven the econometric findings and the historical narrative together with a theoretical analysis. He conclusively rejects the theory that recent U.S. business cycles are the result of any largely self-perpetuating fluctuation in investment in stocks. Instead he draws attention to the persistent destabilizing roles of changes in defense expenditure and of changes in monetary policy-inventory investment performs the largely passive role of aggravating these changes. The book, first published in 1969, will be of value not only to specialists in business cycle studies, but to economists and others concerned with the problems of stability and growth in the international economy, as well as to economic historians.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Download or read book Economic Cycles written by Solomos Solomou and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by National Bureau of Economic Research. This book was released on 1927 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle written by Paul A. Volcker and published by New York : Free Press. This book was released on 1978 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Stabilization of Business written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by New York, MacMillan. This book was released on 1923 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by Bookboon. This book was released on 1990 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycles in the Postwar World written by Philip A. Klein and published by Domestic Affairs Studies. This book was released on 1976 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pamphlet on the nature and international transmission of business cycles - compares classical business cycles and economic growth cycles in the USA, Western Europe, Canada and Japan, and concludes that foreign economic fluctuation affects u.s. Economic growth at least as much as, if not more than the economic recession in the USA influences foreign economies. Graphs, references and statistical tables.
Download or read book The Past and Future of America s Economy written by Robert D. Atkinson and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2004-01-01 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Anyone interested in American history as well as the future contours of our economy will find Dr. Atkinson's analyses a guide to the past and a provocative challenge for the future. Economists, business leaders, scholars, and economic policymakers will find it a necessary addition to the literature on economic cycles and growth economics."--BOOK JACKET.
Download or read book The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States written by John B. Guerard and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-06 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy and what to expect in the near and distant future. Beginning with a historic look at major contributions to economic indicators and business cycles starting with Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913) to Burns and Mitchell (1946), to Moore (1961) and Zarnowitz (1992), this book explores time series forecasting and economic cycles, which are currently maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given their highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, these relationships are particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.
Download or read book The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization written by Gadi Barlevy and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article reviews the literature on the cost of U.S. post-War business cycle fluctuations. I argue that recent work has established this cost is considerably larger than initial work found. However, despite the large cost of macroeconomic volatility, it is not obvious that policymakers should have pursued a more aggressive stabilization policy than they did. Still, the fact that volatility is so costly suggests stable growth is a desirable goal that ought to be maintained to the extent possible, just as policymakers are currently required to do under the Balanced Growth and Full Employment Act of 1978. This survey was prepared for the Economic Perspectives, a publication of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Download or read book Business Cycles Inflation and Forecasting written by Geoffrey Hoyt Moore and published by Ballinger Publishing Company. This book was released on 1980 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
