Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators and Measures written by George Hildebrand and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1992 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators for States and Regions written by Gerhard Bry and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Econometric Business Cycle Research written by Jan Jacobs and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book Measuring Business Cycles written by Simone Dommer and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-03-03 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2009 im Fachbereich BWL - Unternehmensforschung, Operations Research, , Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: This assignment covers the topic “Measuring Business Cycles”. A business cycle is defined as recurrent but not period fluctuations in business econom-ics. It includes four different phases: contraction (decrease of business activi-ties), trough (lower turning point), expansion or recovery (increase of busi-ness activities) and peak (upper turning point followed again by contraction). One business cycle can either last from trough to next trough or from one peak to another. Business cycles present fluctuations around a given growth-trend. According to the impulse-propagation approaching fluctuations are caused by three types of shocks: supply shock, private demand shock and policy shock. Short-time shifts in aggregate supply and aggregate demand have an impact on output, employment and price level as these factors are closely intercon-nected. Therefore economists use variables to track output, employment and price level in order to find out the current business cycle phase and to select the correct instruments or if necessary to start the counteractive measure-ments. The most important factor in determining the phase of the business cycle is the economic activity measured by gross domestic product (GDP), a procyc-lical variable. A positive GDP indicates that the economy is growing (expan-sion phase) and vice versa a negative GDP shows the economy is declining (contraction phase). Potential GDP shows the possible output under full em-ployment. The harmonisation of potential and real GDP can be influenced by decreasing the unemployment rate (share of unemployed people of labor force. Unemployment rate develops counter cyclically. In case economic ac-tivity increases (expansion phase), unemployment rate will fall and vice versa. Another important factor is inflation. High inflation devaluates value of money and rising inflation will increase the demand for higher wages leading to lower output. The objective of macroeconomic policy is to track the variables and to find the correct respond to each development. Possible instruments may be fo-cussing on stability in employment, prices and growth.
Download or read book Guidelines on Producing Leading Composite and Sentiment Indicators written by United Nations and published by United Nations. This book was released on 2019-12-18 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by Turtleback. This book was released on 1995-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Download or read book Measuring Business Cycles written by Arthur F. Burns and published by . This book was released on 1946 with total page 602 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Economic Performance Index EPI written by Mr.Vadim Khramov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-23 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).
Download or read book Business Cycle Analysis by Means of Economic Surveys written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by Ashgate Publishing. This book was released on 1992 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second part of a work on business cycle analysis through economic surveys. It examines the stability of leading indicators, the measurement of innovation activities by surveys, consumer surveys, the impact of inflation on business behaviour and new survey activities.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-06 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators Volume 2 Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators written by and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Leading Indicators written by Zachary Karabell and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2014-02-11 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A history and critical assessment of leading indicators reveals their indelible impact on the economy, public policy, and other critical decisions, discussing their shortcomings while making suggestions for reducing dependence on them.
