Download or read book Business Cycle Asymmetry and the Stock Market written by Paramsothy Silvapulle and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies written by James Morley and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ten industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run growth rate into account and, by addressing model uncertainty using equal weights on different forecast-based estimates, is robust to different assumptions about the underlying structure of the economy. For all ten countries in the sample, we find that the estimated output gap has much larger negative movements during recessions than positive movements in expansions, suggesting business cycle asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies. Furthermore, the estimated output gap is always strongly negatively correlated with future output growth and unemployment and positively correlated with capacity utilization. It also implies a convex Phillips Curve in many cases. The model-averaged output gap is reliable in real time in the sense of being subject to relatively small revisions.
Download or read book Business Cycle Asymmetry written by Daniel E. Sichel and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Reconcilation of Two Empirical Views of Business Cycle Asymmetry written by Daniel E. Sichel and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book Business Cycle Asymmetry in China written by Tingguo Zheng and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Friedman's plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed an upper limit, but it is occasionally “plucked” downward below trends as a result of economic recessions. This paper investigates China's business fluctuations using quarterly real GDP data for the period 1978-2009. Our results show some evidence supporting Friedman's plucking model. We find that a ceiling effect of real output exists, and that negative asymmetric shocks significantly affect the transitory component, which captures the plucking downward behavior during the recession. The results also suggest that the basic asymmetric unobserved component model is not appropriate for directly modeling China's real output because the business cycle is inaccurately measured, but it works quite well when considering a structural break in the second quarter of 1992. The results reveal that although China's economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2009, it is essential for China's government to take further positive and effective measures to maintain sustainable development of the economy.
Download or read book Testing for Business Cycle Asymmetry written by A. E. H. Speight and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A State Level Analysis of Business Cycle Asymmetry written by Bradley T. Ewing and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive examination of asymmetry in US state-level business cycles. We consider two different types of asymmetry in the adjustment process of a stationary time series: deepness and steepness. The data used in the study are a comparable set of state-level coincident indexes (SCIs) developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Specifically, results from using the momentum-threshold autoregressive model provide evidence of asymmetry in the growth rate of 23 SCIs as well as the equivalent national coincident index.
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycle Asymmetry written by Jeremy Max Piger and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Download or read book A Reconciliation of Two Empirical Views of Business Cycle Asymmetry written by Daniel E. Sichel and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Common Stochastic Trends Common Cycles and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper investigates the nature of business cycle asymmetry using a dynamic factor model of output, investment, and consumption. We first identify a common stochastic trend and a common transitory component by embedding the permanent income hypothesis within a simple growth model. We then investigate two types of asymmetry commonly identified in U.S. business cycle dynamics: (1) Infrequent negative permanent shocks, modeled as shifts in the growth rate of the common stochastic trend and (2) infrequent negative transitory shocks, modeled as "plucking" deviations from the common stochastic trend. Tests of marginal significance suggest both types of asymmetry were present in post-war recessions, although the shifts in trend are less severe than the received literature suggests."
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycle Asymmetry in Output written by David Ralph Tufte and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances in Markov Switching Models written by James D. Hamilton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.
Download or read book Business Cycles Economic Crises and the Poor written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry written by James B. Ramsey and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The problem of business cycle symmetry is addressed within the context of time reversibility. To this effect, we introduce a time domain test of time reversibility, the TR test. In an application we show that time irreversibility is the rule rather than the exception for two well-known representative macroeconomic data sets. This shows that many components of the business cycle have asymmetric fluctuations. The characterization of asymmetry provided by the TR test shows that many series exhibit steepness asymmetry. A few series appear to be either deep or sharp.
Download or read book Business Cycle Asymmetry and the Stock Market written by Dale L. Domian and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present and estimate models of an asymmetric relationship between CRSP stock index returns and the U.S. unemployment rate. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, conventional linear time series models are improved by allowing asymmetric responses. Our results show that negative stock returns are quickly followed by sharp increases in unemployment, while more gradual unemployment declines follow positive stock returns. According to our forecasting model, the unemployment rate rises by 1.12 percentage points during the 12 months after a 10 percent stock decline. Because macroeconomics forecasters have been unable to reliably predict downturns, these findings may provide a useful contribution.
