Download or read book Business Cycle and Credit Risk Modeling with Jump Risks written by Bong-Gyu Jang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a structural model that incorporates both macroeconomic risks and firm-specific jump risks. Using this model, we derive analytic formulas for default probability, equity price, and CDS spreads. We show that including the two types of risk in credit risk modeling can generate better explanations for firm's credit risks in the real world. Based on reasonably calibrated parameters, we find that our model could better predict actual default probabilities and overcome the underestimation of credit risks, especially for firms with high credit ratings, which has been one of the major limitations of the currently available structural models. The structural model proposed in this paper highlights that macroeconomic factors are important in modeling credit risks and that default probabilities, and CDS spreads could be dependent on the current economic state.

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Niklas Wagner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-05-28 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring contributions from leading international academics and practitioners, Credit Risk: Models, Derivatives, and Management illustrates how a risk management system can be implemented through an understanding of portfolio credit risks, a set of suitable models, and the derivation of reliable empirical results. Divided into six sectio

Download or read book Advances in Credit Risk Modeling and Management written by Frédéric Vrins and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit risk remains one of the major risks faced by most financial and credit institutions. It is deeply connected to the real economy due to the systemic nature of some banks, but also because well-managed lending facilities are key for wealth creation and technological innovation. This book is a collection of innovative papers in the field of credit risk management. Besides the probability of default (PD), the major driver of credit risk is the loss given default (LGD). In spite of its central importance, LGD modeling remains largely unexplored in the academic literature. This book proposes three contributions in the field. Ye & Bellotti exploit a large private dataset featuring non-performing loans to design a beta mixture model. Their model can be used to improve recovery rate forecasts and, therefore, to enhance capital requirement mechanisms. François uses instead the price of defaultable instruments to infer the determinants of market-implied recovery rates and finds that macroeconomic and long-term issuer specific factors are the main determinants of market-implied LGDs. Cheng & Cirillo address the problem of modeling the dependency between PD and LGD using an original, urn-based statistical model. Fadina & Schmidt propose an improvement of intensity-based default models by accounting for ambiguity around both the intensity process and the recovery rate. Another topic deserving more attention is trade credit, which consists of the supplier providing credit facilities to his customers. Whereas this is likely to stimulate exchanges in general, it also magnifies credit risk. This is a difficult problem that remains largely unexplored. Kanapickiene & Spicas propose a simple but yet practical model to assess trade credit risk associated with SMEs and microenterprises operating in Lithuania. Another topical area in credit risk is counterparty risk and all other adjustments (such as liquidity and capital adjustments), known as XVA. Chataignier & Crépey propose a genetic algorithm to compress CVA and to obtain affordable incremental figures. Anagnostou & Kandhai introduce a hidden Markov model to simulate exchange rate scenarios for counterparty risk. Eventually, Boursicot et al. analyzes CoCo bonds, and find that they reduce the total cost of debt, which is positive for shareholders. In a nutshell, all the featured papers contribute to shedding light on various aspects of credit risk management that have, so far, largely remained unexplored.

Download or read book Modelling Economic Capital written by David Jamieson Bolder and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-05-06 with total page 841 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How might one determine if a financial institution is taking risk in a balanced and productive manner? A powerful tool to address this question is economic capital, which is a model-based measure of the amount of equity that an entity must hold to satisfactorily offset its risk-generating activities. This book, with a particular focus on the credit-risk dimension, pragmatically explores real-world economic-capital methodologies and applications. It begins with the thorny practical issues surrounding the construction of an (industrial-strength) credit-risk economic-capital model, defensibly determining its parameters, and ensuring its efficient implementation. It then broadens its gaze to examine various critical applications and extensions of economic capital; these include loan pricing, the computation of loan impairments, and stress testing. Along the way, typically working from first principles, various possible modelling choices and related concepts are examined. The end result is a useful reference for students and practitioners wishing to learn more about a centrally important financial-management device.

Download or read book Credit Risk Management written by Jiří Witzany and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-24 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces to basic and advanced methods for credit risk management. It covers classical debt instruments and modern financial markets products. The author describes not only standard rating and scoring methods like Classification Trees or Logistic Regression, but also less known models that are subject of ongoing research, like e.g. Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks, or Fuzzy Inference Systems. The book also illustrates financial and commodity markets and analyzes the principles of advanced credit risk modeling techniques and credit derivatives pricing methods. Particular attention is given to the challenges of counterparty risk management, Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and the related regulatory Basel III requirements. As a conclusion, the book provides the reader with all the essential aspects of classical and modern credit risk management and modeling.

Download or read book A business cycle approach to rating based credit risk modeling written by Stefan Trück and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Validation of Risk Models written by S. Scandizzo and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-01 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a one-stop-shop reference for risk management practitioners involved in the validation of risk models. It is a comprehensive manual about the tools, techniques and processes to be followed, focused on all the models that are relevant in the capital requirements and supervisory review of large international banks.

Download or read book Credit Risk Pricing Models written by Bernd Schmid and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-01-21 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Risk Pricing Models - now in its second edition - gives a deep insight into the latest basic and advanced credit risk modelling techniques covering not only the standard structural, reduced form and hybrid approaches but also showing how these methods can be applied to practice. The text covers a broad range of financial instruments, including all kinds of defaultable fixed and floating rate debt, credit derivatives and collateralised debt obligations.This volume will be a valuable source for the financial community involved in pricing credit linked financial instruments. In addition, the book can be used by students and academics for a comprehensive overview of the most important credit risk modelling issues.

Download or read book Credit Risk Measurement written by Anthony Saunders and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2002-10-06 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most cutting-edge read on the pricing, modeling, and management of credit risk available The rise of credit risk measurement and the credit derivatives market started in the early 1990s and has grown ever since. For many professionals, understanding credit risk measurement as a discipline is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Measurement, Second Edition has been fully revised to reflect the latest thinking on credit risk measurement and to provide credit risk professionals with a solid understanding of the alternative approaches to credit risk measurement. This readable guide discusses the latest pricing, modeling, and management techniques available for dealing with credit risk. New chapters highlight the latest generation of credit risk measurement models, including a popular class known as intensity-based models. Credit Risk Measurement, Second Edition also analyzes significant changes in banking regulations that are impacting credit risk measurement at financial institutions. With fresh insights and updated information on the world of credit risk measurement, this book is a must-read reference for all credit risk professionals. Anthony Saunders (New York, NY) is the John M. Schiff Professor of Finance and Chair of the Department of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He holds positions on the Board of Academic Consultants of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as the Council of Research Advisors for the Federal National Mortgage Association. He is the editor of the Journal of Banking and Finance and the Journal of Financial Markets, Instruments and Institutions. Linda Allen (New York, NY) is Professor of Finance at Baruch College and Adjunct Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. She also is author of Capital Markets and Institutions: A Global View (Wiley: 0471130494). Over the years, financial professionals around the world have looked to the Wiley Finance series and its wide array of bestselling books for the knowledge, insights, and techniques that are essential to success in financial markets. As the pace of change in financial markets and instruments quickens, Wiley Finance continues to respond. With critically acclaimed books by leading thinkers on value investing, risk management, asset allocation, and many other critical subjects, the Wiley Finance series provides the financial community with information they want. Written to provide professionals and individuals with the most current thinking from the best minds in the industry, it is no wonder that the Wiley Finance series is the first and last stop for financial professionals looking to increase their financial expertise.

Download or read book Practical Credit Risk and Capital Modeling and Validation written by Colin Chen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management written by Ciby Joseph and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit is essential in the modern world and creates wealth, provided it is used wisely. The Global Credit Crisis during 2008/2009 has shown that sound understanding of underlying credit risk is crucial. If credit freezes, almost every activity in the economy is affected. The best way to utilize credit and get results is to understand credit risk. Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management helps the reader to understand the various nuances of credit risk. It discusses various techniques to measure, analyze and manage credit risk for both lenders and borrowers. The book begins by defining what credit is and its advantages and disadvantages, the causes of credit risk, a brief historical overview of credit risk analysis and the strategic importance of credit risk in institutions that rely on claims or debtors. The book then details various techniques to study the entity level credit risks, including portfolio level credit risks. Authored by a credit expert with two decades of experience in corporate finance and corporate credit risk, the book discusses the macroeconomic, industry and financial analysis for the study of credit risk. It covers credit risk grading and explains concepts including PD, EAD and LGD. It also highlights the distinction with equity risks and touches on credit risk pricing and the importance of credit risk in Basel Accords I, II and III. The two most common credit risks, project finance credit risk and working capital credit risk, are covered in detail with illustrations. The role of diversification and credit derivatives in credit portfolio management is considered. It also reflects on how the credit crisis develops in an economy by referring to the bubble formation. The book links with the 2008/2009 credit crisis and carries out an interesting discussion on how the credit crisis may have been avoided by following the fundamentals or principles of credit risk analysis and management. The book is essential for both lenders and borrowers. Containing case studies adapted from real life examples and exercises, this important text is practical, topical and challenging. It is useful for a wide spectrum of academics and practitioners in credit risk and anyone interested in commercial and corporate credit and related products.

Download or read book Standard Poor s Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis written by Blaise Ganguin and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2004-12-22 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An up-to-date, accurate framework for credit analysis and decision making, from the experts at Standard & Poor's "In a world of increasing financial complexity and shorter time frames in which to assess the wealth or dearth of information, this book provides an invaluable and easily accessible guide of critical building blocks of credit analysis to all credit professionals." --Apea Koranteng, Global Head, Structured Capital Markets, ABN AMRO "The authors do a fine job of combining latest credit risk management theory and techniques with real-life examples and practical application. Whether a seasoned credit expert or a new student of credit, this is a must read book . . . a critical part of anyone's risk management library." --Mark T. Williams, Boston University, Finance and Economics Department "At a time when credit risk is managed in a way more and more akin to market risk, Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides well-needed support, not only for credit analysts but also for practitioners, portfolio managers, CDO originators, and others who need to keep track of the creditworthiness of their fixed-income investments." --Alain Canac, Chief Risk Officer, CDC IXIS Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides professionals with the knowledge they need to systematically determine the operating and financial strength of a specific borrower, understand credit risks inherent in a wide range of corporate debt instruments, and then rank the default risk of that borrower. Focusing on fundamental credit risk, cash flow modeling, debt structure analysis, and other important issues, and including separate chapters on country risks, industry risks, business risks, financial risks, and management, it guides the reader through every step of traditional fundamental credit analysis. In a dynamic corporate environment, credit analysts cannot rely solely on financial statistical analysis, credit prediction models, or bond and stock price movements. Instead, a corporate credit analysis must supply loan providers and investors with more information and detail than ever before. On top of its traditional objective of assessing a firm's capacity and willingness to pay its financial obligations in a timely manner, a worthy credit analysis is now expected to assess recovery prospects of specific financial obligations should a firm become insolvent. Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides practitioners with the knowledge and tools they need to address these changing requirements. Drawing on the unmatched global resources and capabilities of Standard & Poor's, this valuable book organizes its guidelines into three distinct components: Part I: Corporate Credit Risk helps analysts identify all the essential risks related to a particular firm, and measure the firm through both a financial forecast and benchmarking with peers Part II: Credit Risk of Debt Instruments explains the impact of debt instruments and debt structures on a firm's recovery prospects should it become insolvent Part III: Measuring Credit Risk presents a scoring system to assess the capacity and willingness of a firm to repay its debt in a timely fashion and to evaluate recovery prospects in the event of financial distress In addition, a fourth component--Cases in Credit Analysis--examines seven real-life studies to provide examples of the book's theory and procedures in practice. Senior Standard & Poor's analysts explore diverse cases ranging from North and South America to Europe and the Pacific Rim, on topics covering mergers (AT&T-Comcast, MGM-Mirage, Kellogg-Keebler), foreign ownership in a merger (Air New Zealand-Ansett-Singapore Airlines), sovereign issues (Repsol-YPF), peer comparisons (U.S. forestry), and recovery analysis (Yell LBO). Industry "Keys to Success" are identified and analyzed in each case, along with an explanation on how to interpret performance and come to a credit decision. While it is still true that ultimate credit decisions are highly subjective in nature, methodologies and thought processes can be repeatable from case to case. Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides analysts with the knowledge and tools they need to systematically analyze a company, identify and analyze the most important factors in determining its creditworthiness, and ensure that more "science" than "art" is used in making the final credit decision.

Download or read book On Recovery and Intensity s Correlation A New Class of Credit Risk Models written by Raquel M. Gaspar and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We start by presenting a reduced-form multiple default type of model and derive abstract results on the influence of a state variable X on credit spreads, when both the intensity and the loss quota distribution are driven by X. The aim is to apply the results to a concrete real life situation, namely, to the influence of macroeconomic risks on credit spreads term structures.There has been increasing support in the empirical literature that both the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) are correlated and driven by macroeconomic variables. Paradoxically, there has been very little effort from the theoretical literature to develop credit risk models that would include this possibility. A possible justification has to do with the increase in complexity this leads to, even for the quot;treatablequot; default intensity models.The goal of this paper is to develop the theoretical framework needed to handle this situation and, through numerical simulation, understand the impact on credit risk term structures of the macroeconomic risks. In the proposed model the state of the economy is modeled trough the dynamics of a market index, that enters directly on the functional form of both the intensity of default and the distribution of the loss quota q given default. Given this setup, we are able to make periods of economic depression, periods of higher default intensity as well as periods where low recovery is more likely, producing a business cycle effect. Furthermore, we allow for the possibility of an index volatility that depends negatively on the index level and show that, when we include this realistic feature, the impacts on the credit spread term structure are emphasized.

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Tomasz R Bielecki and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-01-15 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Analytical Techniques in the Assessment of Credit Risk written by Michalis Doumpos and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-14 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a unique, focused introduction to the analytical skills, methods and techniques in the assessment of credit risk that are necessary to tackle and analyze complex credit problems. It employs models and techniques from operations research and management science to investigate more closely risk models for applications within the banking industry and in financial markets. Furthermore, the book presents the advances and trends in model development and validation for credit scoring/rating, the recent regulatory requirements and the current best practices. Using examples and fully worked case applications, the book is a valuable resource for advanced courses in financial risk management, but also helpful to researchers and professionals working in financial and business analytics, financial modeling, credit risk analysis, and decision science.

Download or read book Levy Processes in Credit Risk written by Wim Schoutens and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2009-08-24 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an introductory guide to using Lévy processes for credit risk modelling. It covers all types of credit derivatives: from the single name vanillas such as Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) right through to structured credit risk products such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurances (CPPIs) and Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) as well as new advanced rating models for Asset Backed Securities (ABSs). Jumps and extreme events are crucial stylized features, essential in the modelling of the very volatile credit markets - the recent turmoil in the credit markets has once again illustrated the need for more refined models. Readers will learn how the classical models (driven by Brownian motions and Black-Scholes settings) can be significantly improved by using the more flexible class of Lévy processes. By doing this, extreme event and jumps can be introduced into the models to give more reliable pricing and a better assessment of the risks. The book brings in high-tech financial engineering models for the detailed modelling of credit risk instruments, setting up the theoretical framework behind the application of Lévy Processes to Credit Risk Modelling before moving on to the practical implementation. Complex credit derivatives structures such as CDOs, ABSs, CPPIs, CPDOs are analysed and illustrated with market data.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: